Severe Wind Storm late 26th-27th December

Iancar29

Just starting a fresh thread for this storm as i think its best to have a new one going .

So things should once again start getting quite windy from evening time tomorow .

Storm with a rough central pressure of 950 mbs looks to bring a tighter set of isobars over the country .


This has the potential to bring stronger winds than yesterdays storm .
With the west and south west getting the worst of the winds.

90mph gusts are a possibility at exposed locations in the SW and W.




With ground already saturated in places , a minor flood risk is now possible also.


As the winds shift towards the east of the country by morning some 70mph gusts are possible , 85mph @ 850hp could be dangerous if any of them filter down to the surface too.

Thunderstorms are also likely in the west and and midlands , and id imagine with the VERY strong shearing in both mid and low levels that there'll be a funnel / tornado threat also . ( THIS IS NORMAL FOR THESE KIND OF STORMS )

Will be back on this evening to see the 12z runs and also hi res models.

ENJOY THE TURKEY!

maquiladora

Thought this would be fun to point out.

On the 15th anniversary. Almost to the hour, almost identical positions.

ninebeanrows

Sustained gales getting well inland

Strong winds could hang around for a while too.

Widespread gusts to 70mph, isolated 80mph even inland (in squalls etc.). Upto 90mph in exposed coastal western locations.

ninebeanrows

Don't like the look of the GME

JanuarySnowstor

To the beady eyed the 12z gfs is slightly less intense but not much in it.
These models fluctuate quite a lot over 24hours, small tweaks between runs can accumulate to quite a difference in a 24hour period.
All we know is it will be stormy, damaging gusts - jury still out until the morning

maquiladora

About a 5-10 mph downgrade in gusts overall on the 12Z GFS.

Spring Onion

Bring it on !!

davidsr20

maquiladora wrote: »

About a 5-10 mph downgrade in gusts overall on the 12Z GFS.

Here we go again lol that lovely downgrade word!

maquiladora

UKMO looks a tad stronger than the GFS at 36 hours.

ninebeanrows

Severe enough from the UKM

ninebeanrows

davidsr20 wrote: »

Here we go again lol that lovely downgrade word!

No, this storm IS going to hit and is going to be quite severe and quite widespread.

Maybe not exceptional but expect wind damage and power outages in places.

70mph gusts will be quite widespread with 80-90mph gusts possible in exposed coasts.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes would agree with that WC, stormy looks a cert what's not sure is whether it'll be an exceptional event.
The South and West look to get the worst of it, storm surge for Cork anyone!!

maquiladora

Agree thats its unlikely it will downgrade (or upgrade) significantly. Models are is fine agreement on track and relative intensity, and this is a much more straightforward type of setup for them to model compared to the somewhat failed previous 'storm', which was more complex.

I wouldn't rule out some slight downgrades though, as that pretty much always happens to some extent for as long as I've been looking at the models.

This will likely be impacting some areas further south than those that usually see 120-130 km/h gusts, so we could see more tree damage and power outages etc. than we see in the more "hardened" northwest.

Harps

Looking like a fairly standard winter storm at the moment, the main difference as you say being that it'll affect the south more so than usual. Anywhere along the west coast should be able to withstand 130kph gusts comfortably enough though power outages and minor damage are almost inevitable, especially if the strong winds make it further inland.

The storm looks like it'll peak Friday morning so slightly more sociable hours than usual for anyone looking to experience it's full force

snowstorm2013

If this storm fails to materialise then I fear a future distrust of forecasts on this board. Many people believe that the storm the other night was over hyped. The last thing needed is another damp squib in short succession

M.T. Cranium

Hope you're enjoying your day, mine of course just about to get started here. It's rather mild and dull outside which calls for a strong coffee, even though the 12z models jolted me awake.

GME, GEM and UK all somewhat more intense than the GFS at 12z and no downgrade in them whatsoever. Central pressures on all are into the low 940s (GFS more like mid 940s, not a big difference). GFS did probably have the best solution for the last system, followed by UK and GEM, but that order is not guaranteed for this storm. GME always seems a little intense to me but would have therefore the look of a higher resolution solution in the actual outcome of a severe storm.

This storm would warrant a level 3 warning if nothing changes and if the GFS tweaks back towards the consensus.

Current intensity and position estimate (from sat and interpolation of 12z and p00z on RGEM) is 986 mbs at 47N 43W. RGEM has it close to M6 buoy at 947 mb at 30h which is 25h from time of posting. The depicted 500 mb appears to be 120 to 130 knots, an extreme value, 2-4 deg south from that position heading straight for Ireland. Thus I would maintain my concern as expressed in forecast for an extreme event. I could foresee this hitting south and west coasts (peak after midnight) with 140 km/hr damaging gusts and a storm surge up to 2m, higher than each of the past two and considerably higher for the south coast.

However, as always, this is a commentary on what models are showing, a human forecaster is free to imagine last minute changes such as the almost ubiquitous northward swerve with downgrade added. In this case I don't see much hard evidence for that happening. The uppers are locked into position by the actions of the previous storm and this one has considerably more dynamic energy. Temperatures will soar to about 12-13 C ahead of the front (it's currently 18 C in the warm sector of the developing storm at 40N 40W ... that will drag 15-16 C dew points towards the Channel and I would not be surprised if it peaks at 14 C at Johnstown around 0400h Friday). There isn't a huge cold plunge with this storm but it will rapidly cool off to about 4-5 C late Thursday. There's no obvious potential for a secondary. All the energy will be concentrated into one blast.

More later, I'm watching the ship reports for a well-placed vessel downstream but of course they all knew this was brewing and have taken a rather southerly route as with the report I just mentioned from 40/40. That isn't too close to the centre, and the fixed locations back around Newfoundland (oil platforms) are already receding in the rear view mirror of this fast-moving storm (RGEM indicates a steady motion of about 1 deg long per hour as well as 0.14 deg lat gain per hour for 36h, so from 45.6N 49W at initialization to 49.0N 37W by 00z, 52.4N 25W by 12z Thursday and 55.8N 13W by 00z Friday. Trajectory appears to deviate south of this near end point as the actual finishing point is 54N 14W. So I have a benchmark for testing out the "northward drift" tendency closer to the time.

More later when the ECM is available.

Tactical

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

If this storm fails to materialise then I fear a future distrust of forecasts on this board. Many people believe that the storm the other night was over hyped. The last thing needed is another damp squib in short succession

Those of us with an interest in the weather know and understand that things can downgrade and more often than not they do.

However, I think its fair to say that anyone who regularly participates or lurks on the weather forum are well aware of the nature of forecasting.

If it happens great, if not its back on the rollercoaster for the next event be it wind, snow, rain, thunder etc...

I think that if people take time to follow this (and the last storm thread), reading carefully the wording in the posts that they will not over-hype the possible event. I feel its when people don't properly read the forecast and model analysis posts that the over-hyping begins.

_Whimsical_

Harps wrote: »

Looking like a fairly standard winter storm at the moment, the main difference as you say being that it'll affect the south more so than usual. Anywhere along the west coast should be able to withstand 130kph gusts comfortably enough though power outages and minor damage are almost inevitable, especially if the strong winds make it further inland.

I'm always curious about this sentiment? Why is it thought the west can more easily face storms than other areas?

A little 5 year that was in an accident in galway last weds during the storm died today. I think we just don't get the media coverage other places do when storms hit.

maquiladora

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

I'm always curious about this sentiment? Why is it thought the west can more easily face storms than other areas?

A little 5 year that was in an accident in galway last weds during the storm died today. I think we just don't get the media coverage other places do when storms hit.

It's just a case of the west and northwest coastal areas having much more storms over the years so that there is a distinct lack of trees and other "stuff" liable to be blown down or damaged. Because over time regular storms have taken care of that.

It's a bit like that recent storm back in October in southern England. It would be a non event in Scotland or northwest Ireland, but because the south of England gets so few wind events, there were plenty of trees blown down even though it wasn't really a "severe" event at all.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

More later, I'm watching the ship reports for a well-placed vessel downstream but of course they all knew this was brewing and have taken a rather southerly route as with the report I just mentioned from 40/40.

There is a ship not far ahead and a little south of the low that reported 992mb at 5pm.


http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2013122517&size=large&lang=en&area=eur

eastmayo

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

I'm always curious about this sentiment? Why is it thought the west can more easily face storms than other areas?

A little 5 year that was in an accident in galway last weds during the storm died today. I think we just don't get the media coverage other places do when storms hit.

Also so sad to hear about the little girl that passed away today.rip

_Whimsical_

maquiladora wrote: »

It's just a case of the west and northwest coastal areas having much more storms over the years so that there is a distinct lack of trees and other "stuff" liable to be blown down or damaged. Because over time regular storms have taken care of that.

It's a bit like that recent storm back in October in southern England. It would be a non event in Scotland or northwest Ireland, but because the south of England gets so few wind events, there were plenty of trees blown down even though it wasn't really a "severe" event at all.

Thanks,that's a good explanation. It makes sense I suppose .

kerrywez

A very merry Xmas to one and all on this mad house. I feel this one is the real thing, we go to some friends tomorrow for our Christmas dinner, will not be going till after the Man Utd game so should be moving between 14: 50 and 15:00, by the looks of what I am seeing here we will be leaving a little earlier than usual. We only have around 8 moles to travel, but there are loads of trees along the two roads we need to use. Keep safe everyone and have a Happy New Year.

Best Regards Wez

maquiladora

ECM track appears to a little further south than the GFS comparing the 48 hour charts. Similar MSLP.

Oscar Bravo

Siobhan Ryan said met eireann might upgrade to a red warning status so keep an eye on the forecasts.

Tactical

Television forecast looks nice with Storm written all over the last chart displayed

Nice swell off the West coast too at 10 to 12 metres.

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Siobhan Ryan said met eireann might upgrade to a red warning status so keep an eye on the forecasts.

The 12Z HIRLAM output would meet the criteria for a red warning for some areas. But I imagine they are being cautious since it could downgrade a little.

sandin

I'm sort of looking forward to heading to the Skellig ring tomorrow - thankfully no trees about where I stay, but even on a calm day its windy, so tomorrow night will be an experience!

But best place of all would have to be the Cill Riallig artists village on Bolus Head itself facing onto the Skelligs. 7 Cottages literally at the edge of the mountain facing put onto the Atlantic.

I think I'll bring a camping stove and a few extra candles just to be safe!

munsterlegend

I was out driving yesterday and have to say crosswinds made it very dangerous. Can't imagine what it will be like with much stronger winds forecasted. Always a busy night with the festivities so people need to be well warned.

M.T. Cranium

This storm shows that it would be a good investment by the European nations to get a high-tech buoy in place somewhere west of 20W, the UK had one at 20W for many years and never replaced it when it failed back around 2007. Ships are naturally going to avoid the worst areas predicted and you can see that in the current 18z obs. I was more interested in finding well-located ships for tonight and tomorrow morning which might be around 48N 20W now, depending on which way they are headed, anything between 15 and 25 W would be in play, but those actually reporting at 18z have tracked further south. The one close to the current centre has not reported on the NDBC site that I utilize. Sometimes the list is not complete until almost end of the hour. However it's too early to get much useful information from any ship yet, the satellite imagery shows that the storm is still an open wave and has no cyclonic circulation developed yet.

Agreed that ECM changes nothing and from what Ms Ryan apparently said, that would be code for current models indicate potential for red alert (to Met E) so we (they) are waiting to see what 00z run has to say. If the low deepens as RGEM indicates, then red alert is guaranteed (and needed).

You can track these ship reports in real time by using this link:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=49N&lon1=42W&uom=E&dist=700&ot=A&time=7

At the moment I've set it up to report anything within 700 nm of 49N 42W. You can keep changing the parameters eastward as the storm moves, or widen the search, or include past hours. The site also has complete global reports from all ships and buoys, the buoys can be referenced on maps (click on "recent") and just a cautionary note, for whatever reason the K4 buoy position as reported appears to be one degree north of its real position, the map position is actually more accurate than the report co-ordinates for some reason, whether that's a typo or a reposition by UK Met Office, I don't know, but I was fairly sure from the storm last Wed that the buoy must have been at 54N 12W not 55N 12W as the report for K4 says.

Maybe the Premier League could sponsor the K3 buoy, I'm sure a 1% tax on their salaries would pay for a new one. That's the one which used to be out around 20W, we miss it.

ninebeanrows

Yes, ECMWF quite severe.

Going to be a widespread gale.

maquiladora

Latest fax for noon tomorrow.

Iancar29

Convective squall lines are a strong likely hood if the outlook remain the same as of now.

Harps

UKMO hi-res shows 50-55kt sustained wind around the Clare/Kerry coast so potential for gusts around 75kts. Looks like those of us in the NW will get off lightest for a change

JanuarySnowstor

Somewhere could break 100mph

Tactical

It would be nice to get a little of the action in West Limerick and the South West that normally gets sent to the North West

savj2

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

Tactical

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

The gang over in the aviation section may be quicker to provide an answer.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=905

Either that or try Google.

whitebriar

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

Cross winds of just 45knotts practically closed Dublin yesterday,so this storm could do the same only longer?

JanuarySnowstor

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

Disruption likely prior to 16:10 so delays expected

kub

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

Planes take off against the wind, ie they face straight into it while taking off. AFAIK if the wind is any bearing more than 45 degrees than the chosen runway heading then they cannot operate.

maquiladora

Met office analysis chart put the low at 982 at 6pm today.

Scotty15

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

You migh be delayed from Aircraft being unable to land or doing go-arounds but A320's can take off in any wind.

tu2j2

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

whitebriar wrote: »

Cross winds of just 45knotts practically closed Dublin yesterday,so this storm could do the same only longer?

I'm pretty sure not much will take off or land if crosswinds are much over 40kts, its crosswind component though so a 40kt wind at 45degrees to the runway isnt a 40kt crosswind, its 28 approx. Limits depend on the aircraft and presumably company operating procedure.

kub wrote: »

Planes take off against the wind, ie they face straight into it while taking off. AFAIK if the wind is any bearing more than 45 degrees than the chosen runway heading then they cannot operate.

You always try face as much into the wind as possible, as above it all depends on crosswind component so wind angle isnt the limiting factor as such.

Scotty15 wrote: »

You migh be delayed from Aircraft being unable to land or doing go-arounds but A320's can take off in any wind.

I imagine the crosswind limits for landing are very similar for take off too.

I'm not a pilot so I don't worry to much about all that stuff, theres plenty in the aviation forum who can probably give exact answers. It does look like there will definately be some delays on Friday morning though.

Bigcheeze

savj2 wrote: »

What is usually the speed of wind or speed of gust that could prevent an A320 taking off? Flight is taking off at 16:10 on Friday.

I am due to take off around same time.

Wind direction is more important than wind speed. The main runway is at 280 degrees so if the wind us coming from roughly that direction aircraft can take off in the expected winds.

maquiladora

No downgrade on the 18Z HIRLAM. Looks almost identical to the 12Z. I'd expect we'll see a warning upgrade from Met Eireann in the morning.

Hooter23

Its annoying were getting all these deep lows and yet the winds are not very intense they dont make storms like they used too:pac:

morebabies

Apologies if this has been mentioned already but what is the approximate duration of the storm projected to be? (South Mayo). Thanks.

Tactical

morebabies wrote: »

Apologies if this has been mentioned already but what is the approximate duration of the storm projected to be? (South Mayo). Thanks.

See the forecast from M.T.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88151871&postcount=3158

Also see the current Met Eireann weather warning

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Keep tuned here for analysis of the various models as they are run and then later for live updates from posters.

mickger844posts

Even us in the Southern half of the country will see significant gusts from this system. We are due a decent sustained storm. Last weeks storm was intense for a few hours but tomorrow should last longer and give higher gusts.

Tactical

Yes, we're well over due a decent wind event

I'll be glued to the thread tomorrow as things develop and where possible I'll post measured wind speeds. Ok, they will only be at 2mtrs agl with a handheld anemometer so while they won't be scientific they may provide an indication of how things develop.

Sants next year is gonna be under strict instruction to provide an anemometer that I can mount 10mtrs agl.