WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Frank Garrett

ZX7R wrote: »

no the frosty weather would not have much of an effect on cooling the sea

It would if it keeps air temperatures lower than the sea surface temperatures. High pressure at this time of year creates no heat, I often see days where frost lasts all day, particularly in shaded areas.

Cogsy88

Frank Garrett wrote: »

Wouldn't frosty weather help cool the seas? Very little power in that Sun.

Frost would have no effect on cooling the sea. The sun does have an effect on cooling the sea, but it's a lag effect, it takes a lot of energy to heat water and much longer for it to cool down compared to land. The sea is coolest around late spring early summer and warmest around late autumn early winter.

ZX7R

Frank Garrett wrote: »

It would if it keeps air temperatures lower than the sea surface temperatures. High pressure at this time of year creates no heat, I often see days where frost lasts all day, particularly in shaded areas.

I get what your saying, but land will cool quicker than water and there is a lot more water to cool down in the sea than land, also you would have different sea currents mixing water from warmer area's keeping the sea temperatures warmer , we would need a long cold period for The cold air to have an effect

Frank Garrett

Cogsy88 wrote: »

Frost would have no effect on cooling the sea. The sun does have an effect on cooling the sea, but it's a lag effect, it takes a lot of energy to heat water and much longer for it to cool down compared to land. The sea is coolest around late spring early summer and warmest around late autumn early winter.

I wasn't suggesting the frost itself had an effect on the sea, frost can only form on land. I was suggesting the type of weather associated with frost will help cool the sea becuase the air above the sea is being cooled due to the lack of clouds that act as an insulator and the lack of southwesterly winds that help drag up warm seas from the mid-Atlantic.

Cold air = cold sea.

icesnowfrost

I just had to put this up

Frank Garrett

ZX7R wrote: »

I get what your saying, but land will cool quicker than water and there is a lot more water to cool down in the sea than land, also you would have different sea currents mixing water from warmer area's keeping the sea temperatures warmer , we would need a long cold period for The cold air to have an effect

I actually though it takes weeks or months for the sea to warm or cool, however, I was shocked at how quick the sea warmed during the heatwave in July. I think I took about 7 days for it to go from a couple degrees below average to a couple degrees above average.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I just had to put this up

Classic

Cogsy88

Frank Garrett wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting the frost itself had an effect on the sea, frost can only form on land. I was suggesting the type of weather associated with frost will help cool the sea becuase the air above the sea is being cooled due to the lack of clouds that act as an insulator and the lack of southwesterly winds that help drag up warm seas from the mid-Atlantic.

Cold air = cold sea.

Cold air in Ireland does not mean cold sea. The wind has little or no effect on the North Atlantic drift. Dats wat really keeps are climate dull!!

Cogsy88

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I just had to put this up

Great morale boost from evelyn. Who knows what's going to happen?

Frank Garrett

Cogsy88 wrote: »

Cold air in Ireland does not mean cold sea. The wind has little or no effect on the North Atlantic drift. Dats wat really keeps are climate dull!!

Sure it does. Didn't we once have a visit from a box jelly fish or a Portuguese man o' war due to a constant southwesterly airflow?

Furethermore, the sea temperatures in early July were below average because of the predominantly easterly airflow we had during Spring.

ZX7R

Frank Garrett wrote: »

I actually though it takes weeks or months for the sea to warm or cool, however, I was shocked at how quick the sea warmed during the heatwave in July. I think I took about 7 days for it to go from a couple degrees below average to a couple degrees above average.

That is shallow sea water at our coast's that would heat up that quickly not the bulk of the sea, also you would have less run of cooler water from rivers entering the sea due to lack of rain fall and many other factors.also the fact it is shallow sea water the land under it would also heat making the water warmer i would think

Cogsy88

What was the average sea temp in July 2013?

Cogsy88

Frank Garrett wrote: »

Sure it does. Didn't we once have a visit from a box jelly fish or a Portuguese man o' war due to a constant southwesterly airflow?

Furethermore, the sea temperatures in early July were below average because of the predominantly easterly airflow we had during Spring.

We have a southwesterly airflow most of the time it's one of the main factors in irish weather. Yes below average but by no means cold for are latitude. There was previous reports of Portuguese man o war in irish waters, but dats hardly surprising since we are smack bang in the middle of a warm current. We also have sharks.

Cold spring and below average water temp in July just explains the lag effect.

Slashermcguirk

We have more shark and whales than the rest of the British Isles, even orcas the past couple of years in west of Ireland. Back to weather, bring on some snow

leahyl

Just watched the forecast from Evelyn tonight - epic, just epic!! :-D

Smidge

leahyl wrote: »

Just watched the forecast from Evelyn tonight - epic, just epic!! :-D

Is Cork getting snow?

Cycling Dumbasses

I have been following the 54 pages of this thread are we getting snow or not, Evelyn created a stir earlier is it true?

finnharpsboy

will it really happen??? http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/forecastloop

derekon

Nothing special in M.T's forecast for next week. Daytime temperatures of 6-8oc are hardly anything to write home about. Again this shows the peril of putting too much faith in the weather models so far out. Ken Ring might indeed be right in saying that the first real cold blast to be felt this year in Ireland will be towards the end of November 2013.

maquiladora

Looking at the latest GFS, a short cold snap with two nights of sub-zero temperatures in places, and then staying cool but not really cold beyond that. A brief window of snowfall oppurtunity on Tuesday, with high ground in the north and northwest most likely to see showers falling as snow, with a chance that sleety rain could turn to snizzle/wet snow for a while on lower levels in places. The ECM offers hints in FI of a potential proper blast of cold air being possible down the line, but a quick reload of "real" cold air (and not weak -4 uppers) doesn't appear to be on the cards anymore.

mickger844posts

Further downgrades in the models this morning summed up rather well by Maq. The writing was on the wall with yesterdays ECM 12z. Still its only the start of the season so lots more ups and downs to look forward to.

BLIZZARD7

mickger844posts wrote: »

Further downgrades in the models this morning summed up rather well by Maq. The writing was on the wall with yesterdays ECM 12z. Still its only the start of the season so lots more ups and downs to look forward to.

I would say this morning runs are definite upgrades over yesterday afternoons downgrades... Nothing zonal on the way anyway- I think we are in the set up phase for something bigger to come in about 2 weeks, getting gradually cooler until then.




Dan

maquiladora

Back to rain on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning on the latest GFS with the colder air leaving after not much more than a 24 hour visit. Cold rain is seriously miserable! On high hills and mountains this could well be snow though.




We need to look more to the medium term for signs of proper cold spell.

derekon

Just checking Mark Vogan's website (www.markvoganweather.com) and the following is the weather headline:


CLASSIC NOVEMBER COLD BLAST ON THE WAY FOR UK! HAVE SCRAPER, PERHAPS SHOVEL READY!

I think he might wish to withdrawn the mention of the word "shovel" (or at least qualify it by saying if you live high up on the Scottish mountains)

Also just had a peek at his winter forecast for Britain & Ireland (you have to pay to see the full wish cast) and he is going for a very cold winter(what a surprise:D) with his prediction being that eastern Europe will be dry while western Europe (i.e. Ireland and Britain) will be cold and snowy.

Anyone buying into this?

D

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

Just checking Mark Vogan's website (www.markvoganweather.com) and the following is the weather headline:


CLASSIC NOVEMBER COLD BLAST ON THE WAY FOR UK! HAVE SCRAPER, PERHAPS SHOVEL READY!

I think he might wish to withdrawn the mention of the word "shovel" (or at least qualify it by saying if you live high up on the Scottish mountains)

Also just had a peek at his winter forecast for Britain & Ireland (you have to pay to see the full wish cast) and he is going for a very cold winter(what a surprise:D) with his prediction being that eastern Europe will be dry while western Europe (i.e. Ireland and Britain) will be cold and snowy.

Anyone buying into this?

D

Well, if you're not buying into it, then neither am I Derekon;). he knows well If he was predicting a mild winter, his site would not not be as busy. besides there are far more knowledgeable people than him out there, who give their analysis free of charge

sdanseo

Mark Vogan predicts 2010 type winters and worse on an annual basis. He'd probably predict snow in summer if he thought he could make a few quid off it.

*The above is an informed opinion and not an attempt to troll, flame, or otherwise anger the weathermods!

BAN !

maquiladora

Another downgrade on the 12Z (for the near terms at least) as we are back in boring old -2 850mb air by 6pm on Tuesday.

jaffusmax

Not too bad a bit further out

BLIZZARD7

12z gfs far more amplified at +144hrs sending some nice WAA into Greenland.




Dan