Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thelad95

Johngoose wrote: »

I'm tempted by Zebre+39, they are away to the Scarlets.i know they are a poor side, but if they got a few points at all,it would be hard for the Scarlets to cover that handicap...

Will scarlets not have some internationals returning? I think it's poor value though, zebre nearly always seem to nick a few scores alright.

Buer

Zebre have lost their last two games by 64 (away) and 30 (at home). Scarlets have won three on the trot including last week against Glasgow away.

I'd say 39 is pretty much on the money. Whenever they've gone away to any of the better teams in the league they've been absolutely thumped.

sydthebeat

Johngoose wrote: »

I'm tempted by Zebre+39, they are away to the Scarlets.i know they are a poor side, but if they got a few points at all,it would be hard for the Scarlets to cover that handicap...

i think blues -21 is a better bet

scarlets dont really have points difference to play for and are looking over their shoulder at glasgow, who have a tough away fixture to ulster the following day

so they might be happy to take a tbp points secured at about 50 mins... and take the foot of the pedal for the remainder of the game

in my opinion the blues are better than treviso from 8 to 15 and could easily put 40 points up on them, at home, on their 3G pitch.

so im going to do both leinster and blues as singles @ 10/11 and a double as well (though leinster have gone to -14 now)

The Pheasant2

Jack Conan to score in 80 @3.2

Johngoose

sydthebeat wrote: »

i think blues -21 is a better bet

scarlets dont really have points difference to play for and are looking over their shoulder at glasgow, who have a tough away fixture to ulster the following day

so they might be happy to take a tbp points secured at about 50 mins... and take the foot of the pedal for the remainder of the game

in my opinion the blues are better than treviso from 8 to 15 and could easily put 40 points up on them, at home, on their 3G pitch.

so im going to do both leinster and blues as singles @ 10/11 and a double as well (though leinster have gone to -14 now)

Leinster destroyed Edinburgh

sydthebeat

Johngoose wrote: »

Leinster destroyed Edinburgh

Yeah I had them -12 and still have the double on.

I hope you didn't do that zebre bet

Johngoose

sydthebeat wrote: »

Yeah I had them -12 and still have the double on.

I hope you didn't do that zebre bet

I got Zebre at +39 and +45 in different accumulators so I'm covered thank God!:-) Edinburgh were crap good call.

Del.Monte

Narrow escape last night and I managed to put the hex on JVD Flier. Hopefully I haven't done the same for Bleyendaal today.

Piled into Leinster to score more than -21.5 at HT and that saved the day.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i think blues -21 is a better bet

scarlets dont really have points difference to play for and are looking over their shoulder at glasgow, who have a tough away fixture to ulster the following day

so they might be happy to take a tbp points secured at about 50 mins... and take the foot of the pedal for the remainder of the game

in my opinion the blues are better than treviso from 8 to 15 and could easily put 40 points up on them, at home, on their 3G pitch.

so im going to do both leinster and blues as singles @ 10/11 and a double as well (though leinster have gone to -14 now)

Happy days all round

Leinster -13
Leinster -14
Cardiff -21
Double leinster -14 and Cardiff -21

Bazzo

I'm starting to think lumping on the Italian's opponents at half time might be the way to go for a decent punt. They seem to be able to keep the scoreline tight for 40-50 minutes before completely capitulating.

Del.Monte

So I did for Bleyendaal too - thanks to the blind TMO.

Made it 3 from 3 in the hex stakes with my 16/5 on Kieran Marmion in the Connacht game - at least I got my stake refunded.

Del.Monte

And so it continues. Did well on Munster 1st half points last night and was seriously tempted at halftime to go with Munster to win by more than 19.5 - how lucky was I.

Nothing fancy today but hoping Scotland and Wales go hell for leather in the first half.

typhoony

double pays at odds of evens on this..

Connacht -11.5 8/13 and Ospreys -6.5 4/9

printing money

sydthebeat

fun bet for the weekend

double on:
edinburgh and ospreys draw
bath and wasps draw

@500/1 ish

Johngoose

Zebre +30@10/11 against Connacht seems like good value,considering Connacht are poor enough.

MarinersBlues

Johngoose wrote: »

Zebre +30@10/11 against Connacht seems like good value,considering Connacht are poor enough.

Have you considered Zebre's form away from home and the effect the six nations will have on their team.

What do you mean that Connacht are poor enough? Is it the teams form or the fact that they have made massive changes from the team that would have been playing a month ago.

What do you think the handicap should be?
I have no strong opinion on this one. I am just pointing out that your thought process seems to be to look at the market and pick a side. You seem to force yourself to pick a side despite not having an informed opinion.

Ordinarily I would try to put a number on the handicap before I look at the market. This can be difficult at first but is more fun and definitely the right way to go about things. There is no way I could price this one up because I don't know enough about either team, and I am saying that as someone who hasn't missed a Connacht game for more than four years.

sydthebeat

so along with my fun bet of 2 draws

all irish teams to beat handicap (separates)
tom farrell to score in 80 mins @ 11/4
tom farrell to score 2 or more tires 16/1


i think the weather might make connachts spread too hard to reach, but zebre are simply p!ss poor and might not fancy a cold evening in galway at all.... and hopefully the rain stays off for the game.

Johngoose

I know Ulster are at home,but will they cover the -32 handicap against Treviso?Surely Osprey -3 away to Edinburgh is a good call?

thomond2006

Check the weather with Ulster.

Johngoose

Leinster -10 v Scarlets?Leinster without Sexton and Nacewa

sydthebeat

Johngoose wrote: »

Leinster -10 v Scarlets?Leinster without Sexton and Nacewa

the money seems to be on leinsters spread, having gone from -7 to -10.

however scarlets are just coming from defeating munster in thomond and are shorn of much less first teamers than leinster.

im not touching that as it could easily go from a scarlets win to leinster by 20

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

the money seems to be on leinsters spread, having gone from -7 to -10.

however scarlets are just coming from defeating munster in thomond and are shorn of much less first teamers than leinster.

im not touching that as it could easily go from a scarlets win to leinster by 20

I doubt there's enough money on this match in the days leading up to move the price tbh, more they just revised based on Leinster's recent winning margins. Or else someone moved and everyone else followed.

I know Scarlets are a strong side but Leinster definitely favourites, pretty sure have won every home game going back quite a long way at this point, good depth, I'd say Leinster -10 is reasonable tbh.

matthew8

Kameron Flat Rebellion wrote: »

I doubt there's enough money on this match in the days leading up to move the price tbh, more they just revised based on Leinster's recent winning margins.

I know Scarlets are a strong side but Leinster definitely favourites, pretty sure have won every home game going back quite a long way at this point, good depth, I'd say Leinster -10 is reasonable tbh.

These markets only move because of money, never just the bookies revising their opinion.

Bazzo

Johngoose wrote: »

Zebre +30@10/11 against Connacht seems like good value,considering Connacht are poor enough.

I really hope you've learned your lesson about betting on Zebre.. or any Italian team tbh... :P

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

These markets only move because of money, never just the bookies revising their opinion.

This is absolutely not true.

matthew8

Kameron Flat Rebellion wrote: »

This is absolutely not true.

Well it's definitely true in this instance. There is no way the odds compilers put up a handicap of 7 and then said a few days later "wait, these guys have won by big margins recently, better add on a few points". They'd get sacked for being so lax in the first place.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

Well it's definitely true in this instance. There is no way the odds compilers put up a handicap of 7 and then said a few days later "wait, these guys have won by big margins recently, better add on a few points". They'd get sacked for being so lax in the first place.

Well it could be, but again would be surprised if there's much money on this at all. There's €24 matched on Betfair at the moment.

matthew8

Kameron Flat Rebellion wrote: »

Well it could be, but again would be surprised if there's much money on this at all. There's €24 matched on Betfair at the moment.

Betfair exchange never has much money traded the night before unless it's a very major event. You should see horse racing markets, there are wild market moves after the bookies price it up before any bets have been placed on the exchange at all. There's probably not a massive sum traded on Paddy Power but when they price a game up so early they'll move the market for any significant bets at all.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

Betfair exchange never has much money traded the night before unless it's a very major event. You should see horse racing markets, there are wild market moves after the bookies price it up before any bets have been placed on the exchange at all. There's probably not a massive sum traded on Paddy Power but when they price a game up so early they'll move the market for any significant bets at all.

Ah I know yeah it's just basically the only place you can get a sense of the size of the market.

Horse racing is a different kettle of fish though it would be orders of magnitude bigger than rugby in terms of the stakes the bookies take on it. People probably bet on it much closer to the start of the event too.

Complete aside but those Big Bash cricket games in Aus, the matched bets go into the tens of millions on a single game on Betfair, it's absolutely fuppin' crazy.

matthew8

Kameron Flat Rebellion wrote: »

Ah I know yeah it's just basically the only place you can get a sense of the size of the market.

Horse racing is a different kettle of fish though it would be orders of magnitude bigger than rugby in terms of the stakes the bookies take on it. People probably bet on it much closer to the start of the event too.

Complete aside but those Big Bash cricket games in Aus, the matched bets go into the tens of millions on a single game on Betfair, it's absolutely fuppin' crazy.

Cricket is crazy yeah the professional traders must love it, even in the shortest form (T20) you have over 200 balls bowled, each of which change the complexion of the game so plenty of chances for them to re-evaluate the game and bet accordingly. Not sure if you heard but there was a big 1.01 beaten in the big Pakistan league recently, 367k at 1.01, 386k at 1.02, 805k at 1.03. Team only needed 7 from the last 2 overs with 6 wickets left.