Heineken & Amlin Cup 2013/14 General Discussion

.ak

If both ASM and RM target the H-Cup they'll produce some incredible games.

Rightwing

Rightwing wrote: »

If you swapped Leinster with Clermont, Leinster's odds for the H cup would drift dramatically. Same if they swapped with Ulster.

Conclusion we can draw from this is, for the top seeds, there are only 2 tough groups this year.

sigh. I have no idea why I am buying into this punishment.

Firstly, simply putting something in italics does not render it fact.

Secondly, I have no idea how you'd ascertain the above. Your thought processes have never been even inferable let alone explained.

Thirdly, Even if the first two are totally true, that doesn't actually make the blindest bit of difference to the difficulty of the group that Leinster reside in, it would only say that Clermont's group is a more difficult group for Leinster to win the tournament from.

If I tell you that A>C and A>D, what does that tell you about the relationship between C and D?
If I then tell you that B>D, what does that tell you about B's relationship with A and C?
Your statements continually imply that given information as above, we can extend and infer implications that simply aren't available given the info on offer.

Rightwing

It was Rightwing who said Warburton would be lions captain, simply by looking at the odds move. My advice to everyone: Don't back on any team in Leinster's group, apart from Leinster. There's a reason why the bookies and I rate the Castres @ 55/1.

No sighs needed here.

molloyjh

Right that's it, I'm now imploring everyone to please, PLEASE, leave this die here and now. It's going nowhere. He's started talking about himself in the third person and that's never, ever, good.

I
Get
Noticeably irritated,
Obviously
Rattled
Every time you post nonsense.

---

T'end

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Rightwing wrote: »

It was Rightwing who said Warburton would be lions captain, simply by looking at the odds move. My advice to everyone: Don't back on any team in Leinster's group, apart from Leinster. There's a reason why the bookies and I rate the Castres @ 55/1.

No sighs needed here.

Oh lol

Why don't you engage with the valid points emmet has made rather than patting yourself on the back for predicting the captain of a Lions tour three weeks out. A guy who was highly tipped to do so for about two years before the tour. You'd swear this prediction was some sort of brilliant call, it seems you didn't have much a clue at all about the captaincy though seeing as you claimed England would make up 50% of the squad and have the captain in February of this year:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=83283584&postcount=272


Also, can you please point to someone who's saying Castre are going to win the HC? If not please stop trying to imply people are saying anything more than Leinster have a hard group

Podge_irl

Neither Treviso or Zebre are going to be winning the HEC any time soon, but a group with Treviso in it is a damn sight harder than one with Zebre.

Clermont's group is obviously the hardest one (and they are on too short odds overall imo). Ulster's and Leinster's is much of a muchness.

Rightwing

I'll be backing Toulouse this time round, & I like the look of their group, should be good for a home q/f.

Buer

molloyjh wrote: »

Right that's it, I'm now imploring everyone to please, PLEASE, leave this die here and now. It's going nowhere. He's started talking about himself in the third person and that's never, ever, good.

Buer believes this post makes sense.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Rightwing wrote: »

I'll be backing Toulouse this time round, & I like the look of their group, should be good for a home q/f.

How do you think Toulouse are going to get over their poor season last year? Where do you think the improvements will come?

stop

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

In reality Toulouse will do well to get over Saracens and get out of the group. That said I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those sides get in as a best placed runner up

Podge_irl

I would feel a bit sad if Saracens topped a group with Toulouse in it, just in terms of rugby styles.

P_1

Deleted User wrote: »

If you're not too sure, read my posts yesterday.

I think I've explained pretty clearly, but as you're not a WUM unlike others, I'd happily expand on the logic if asked.

The odds suggest that Leinster are one of the best teams in the tournament, have a very difficult group with a lot of potential results, but even in the majority of cases, will still be able to progress and potentially win the tournament.

Simple setup, as posited to Rightwing and ignored, If Castres and Scarlets swap groups tomorrow, what happens to the odds?

Fair enough, I reckon my logic was busted somewhere when I made the argument.

Swap Castres and Scarlets and I'd say we'd see a fair tightening of Leinster's odds and a slight drift to Clermont and Racing's odds plus a wry smile at 3 French teams in the one pool

Anyways it seems the argument has been fairly debunked at this stage so I'll stop being silly

former legend

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

How do you think Toulouse are going to get over their poor season last year? Where do you think the improvements will come?

They've signed a few really good recruits; Joe Tekori, Chillboy Ralepelle and Hosea Gear, while the guys they've lost were probably past their best anyway (Bouilhou, Jauzion, Poux). Luke Burgess never really did it for them so Jano Vermaak could be key.

We may see Toulouse focus on the Top 14 a bit more but they are a serious force to be reckoned with in the HEC. Plus, they have Saracens, Connacht and Zebre so will almost certainly be in the QFs.

Buer

I think Toulouse are in a wobbly position. Ralepelle is massively overrated, for me.There's a good chance he won't start though. Gear is a great player and I think will do well but very much an unknown quantity; he wasn't needed at all though with Clerc, Huget and Medard there. His brother was a massive flop when he moved to the NH so we'll see how he goes. Tekori is a good signing. He has been around a while and will deliver. He's not really in a position that they needed a signing in though given they already have RMC, Albacete and Maestri. That's three pretty serious locks.

The players they've lost are past their best but they're guys that were the heartbeat of the side. It'd be like Leinster losing guys like Cullen and Jennings.

To lose Poux, Jauzion, Bouilhou (who I think will be the biggest loss of all) and Servat (for the second time) in one go is a massive loss. I think they're set for a solid season but I think they'll be doing well to top their pool. In fact, I think Connacht should be targeting Toulouse as their big scalp to take. Unlikely but without their experienced heads, they'll be that little bit more vulnerable and have already been wobbly on the road as those guys have aged.

matthew8

Vermaak's very good. Might be SA's best scrum half. Ralepelle isn't someone I'd describe as a superstar but he's a nailed on starter in the Southern Hemisphere's finest club pack.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

matthew8 wrote: »

Vermaak's very good. Might be SA's best scrum half. Ralepelle isn't someone I'd describe as a superstar but he's a nailed on starter in the Southern Hemisphere's finest club pack.

Ya but he's a mile behind Bismarc and Strauss for the Boks, hence the move up North. Decent hooker but that's about it

.ak

What's a decent punt at RM's first XV for the H-Cup?

thomond2006

Buer wrote: »

I think Toulouse are in a wobbly position. Ralepelle is massively overrated, for me.There's a good chance he won't start though. Gear is a great player and I think will do well but very much an unknown quantity; he wasn't needed at all though with Clerc, Huget and Medard there. His brother was a massive flop when he moved to the NH so we'll see how he goes. Tekori is a good signing. He has been around a while and will deliver. He's not really in a position that they needed a signing in though given they already have RMC, Albacete and Maestri. That's three pretty serious locks.

Gear was signed as a medical joker for Clerc, who is recovering from knee surgery.

thomond2006

.ak wrote: »

What's a decent punt at RM's first XV for the H-Cup?

Tonga'uiha, Szarzewski, Mujati, Metz, Kruger, Lydiate, Le Roux, Cronjé;
Machenaud, Sexton, Imhoff, Roberts, Estebanez, Andreu, Hernandez

molloyjh

thomond2006 wrote: »

Tonga'uiha, Szarzewski, Mujati, Metz, Kruger, Lydiate, Le Roux, Cronjé;
Machenaud, Sexton, Imhoff, Roberts, Estebanez, Andreu, Hernandez

Ah sure that's only all right...

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

that Racing team is serious alright. Such an explosive backline, will be interesting to see how the adapt there play to Sexton

molloyjh

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

that Racing team is serious alright. Such an explosive backline, will be interesting to see how the adapt there play to Sexton

With the former Castres coaches on the way as well I'm sure they'll have their own ideas on how they want to play. There's no excuse for not playing some serious rugby though, even in the T14.

WorldRugby99

the big signings made by montpellier and racing metro make for some pretty tough groups.Toulouse too may have had a bad time of it lately but on paper they still have a great team so wouldnt write them off totally.Add in toulon and clermont and that castres are french champs and its a very strong french contingent this coming season.
There is a noticeable difference between pools 2,3 and 6 and the other 3.Pools 1,4 and 5 are pretty tough groups.
Looking at irish teams-ulster have a tough pool with leicester and montpellier-ulster wil reallyl have to be back to their best to qualify.
Leinster will be favourites but castres will be tough at home,saints recruited well and ospreys always a tough game.leinster should still come through group but maybe not with a home QF.
Cant see connacht coming through a group with sarries,toulouse but ought to beat zebre home/away
Munster have the easier group and will be expected to win it.

schools rugby

I did this last year so i think il do it again . My top 8 of teams in Europe at the moment

1 Toulon
2 Clermont
3 Leinster
4 Montpellier
5 Ulster
6 Leicester
7 Saracens
8 Racing Metro

who_me

The signings made by French clubs in recent years makes you wonder - just how sustainable are they? Can they all sustain that level of salary bill? Lots of the French clubs are from small-ish cities or towns, so perhaps are overly reliant on outside investment. But they can't all be successful..

Either French teams are going to monster the Euro competitions, or suffer a financial collapse in a few years time. Either way, I'd be a little worried for Euro rugby.

Rightwing

who_me wrote: »

The signings made by French clubs in recent years makes you wonder - just how sustainable are they? Can they all sustain that level of salary bill? Lots of the French clubs are from small-ish cities or towns, so perhaps are overly reliant on outside investment. But they can't all be successful..

Either French teams are going to monster the Euro competitions, or suffer a financial collapse in a few years time. Either way, I'd be a little worried for Euro rugby.

Unfortunately they can, sugar daddys.

I definitely agree with 2nd paragraph.

WorldRugby99

who_me wrote: »

The signings made by French clubs in recent years makes you wonder - just how sustainable are they? Can they all sustain that level of salary bill? Lots of the French clubs are from small-ish cities or towns, so perhaps are overly reliant on outside investment. But they can't all be successful..

Either French teams are going to monster the Euro competitions, or suffer a financial collapse in a few years time. Either way, I'd be a little worried for Euro rugby.

As long as the rich backers are happy to basically get no return on their investment then it can continue indefinitely. I have no problem with it from a french league point of view but its the effect it has on the european cup and the widening gap between clubs with massive budgets(france),clubs with salary caps(england)and teams with little money(scots,welsh) that i dont like-its just become like football.
We are just going to see a european cup where the teams with the biggest budget wins the thing every year.Leinster too are a pretty rich team with a big squad so i would include them too.
Chances of an ospreys,harlequins winning now are pretty small which is a shame.

Rightwing

WorldRugby99 wrote: »

As long as the rich backers are happy to basically get no return on their investment then it can continue indefinitely. I have no problem with it from a french league point of view but its the effect it has on the european cup and the widening gap between clubs with massive budgets(france),clubs with salary caps(england)and teams with little money(scots,welsh) that i dont like-its just become like football.
We are just going to see a european cup where the teams with the biggest budget wins the thing every year.Leinster too are a pretty rich team with a big squad so i would include them too.
Chances of an ospreys,harlequins winning now are pretty small which is a shame.

Absolutely, sort of ruins the game. In the long run, it will have a devastating effect on Fr rugby.