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Heineken & Amlin Cup 2013/14 General Discussion

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    #122
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,829 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    I thought it was either of the 4th seed French side?

    See my edit - I remember Castres being placed in Leinster's group and I remember being relieved to **** when we didn't draw Montpelier.


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    #123
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Possibly Munster's ever easiest group was 2011/2012, when we had both the Saints & Castres in our group. Scarlets proved the biggest challenge and came in 2nd. Unlike Saints, we couldn't hit them for over 50 points ...away.
    6 from 6 victories. Our only time doing that.
    Those 2 teams make for tough groups alright. :rolleyes:


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    #124
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Possibly Munster's ever easiest group was 2011/2012, when we had both the Saints & Castres in our group. Scarlets proved the biggest challenge and came in 2nd. Unlike Saints, we couldn't hit them for over 50 points ...away.
    6 from 6 victories. Our only time doing that.
    Those 2 teams make for tough groups alright. :rolleyes:

    I see you've ignored Emmets post on the bookies actually thinking Leinster have a tough group

    btw, Munster scored 50 points against the Saints but bar a last minute drop goal from ROG in Thomond they would have beaten us at home (and they deserved to). Saying we put 50 points on them implies it was a hammering too, and while it was a good win, we only won by 14 points.

    Also, you said yourself earlier that Castre don't care about Europe so beating them home and away isn't much of an achievement. But that doesn't negate that they can be very dangerous as Leinster found out in 08/09. Not to mention how much they've improved since, and after winning the T14 last season I wouldn't be surprised to see them put more of an emphasis on the HC

    What would you say is a hard group btw? Also interesting that you didn't touch on those "complete losers" Ospreys


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    #125
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Possibly Munster's ever easiest group was 2011/2012, when we had both the Saints & Castres in our group. Scarlets proved the biggest challenge and came in 2nd. Unlike Saints, we couldn't hit them for over 50 points ...away.
    6 from 6 victories. Our only time doing that.
    Those 2 teams make for tough groups alright. :rolleyes:

    Did you watch the Top14 playoffs? Castres comfortably beat the two Heineken Cup finalists, if any Irish province achieved the same we'd all be salivating. They're a very dangerous proposition, Leinster's trip over there will be a belter of a match. Keeping Rory Kockott for next season is absolutely massive, if he declares for France as rumoured he'll win many caps. Castres don't have the finesse of Toulouse or Clermont out wide but from 1-10 they are very strong. However they have lost a brilliant coaching ticket and the main question I have is if the new management can bring them to a new level or at least keep them at the standard they had under Labit and Travers.

    Saints are a bit up and down but they have seriously splashed the cash, any side with Corbisiero, Fotuali'i and North will be no pushovers. Ben Foden will be a dangerman if he can rehab his form.


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    #126
    P_1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,681 ✭✭✭✭P_1


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    I see you've ignored Emmets post on the bookies actually thinking Leinster have a tough group

    Interestingly, after having a quick look at the odds I'm not too sure the bookies think Leinster have a tough group. 3rd overall favourites and 2nd shortest odds to win their pool would suggest that they think Leinster would have an easy run through to the QF and a reasonably decent seeding.
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    #127
    Buer
    Registered Users Posts: 24,197 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    P_1 wrote: »
    Interestingly, after having a quick look at the odds I'm not too sure the bookies think Leinster have a tough group. 3rd overall favourites and 2nd shortest odds to win their pool would suggest that they think Leinster would have an easy run through to the QF and a reasonably decent seeding.
    All that suggests is that they fancy Leinster to top their pool, as they should. By that logic, Munster's pool is a harder one as the odds are tighter.

    But that doesn't equate to the pool being weak. Look at the overall odds of the teams in Leinster's pool in comparison to the other pools and they're far shorter than all but one pool.

    Both the odds and general common sense (and that's not a dig at you P1) suggest it's a pool containing some very good teams.


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    #128
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    10-1 is very good value for Castres. I don't think they will top the pool but it's one to back and lay. They start against Saints at home.


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    #129
    former legend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    10-1 is very good value for Castres. I don't think they will top the pool but it's one to back and lay. They start against Saints at home.

    It's a very hard one to call. The difficulty of Leinster's pool will depend on how much Castres decide they're going to target it; if they decide that, having won the French league last season, they're now going to target Europe, then Leinster are in a lot of trouble. Hopefully, by round 5, Castres will have started losing interest and Leinster can get a win over there.

    Munster are in the same boat to a lesser extent with Perpignan; the difference is that Edinburgh give them almost a guaranteed nine points and I'd be hopeful of home and away wins against Gloucester too.


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    #130
    shuffol
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭shuffol


    Leinsters is the only pool where conceivably all 4 teams have the potential to top it.


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    #131
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    When you look at it though based on seeding:

    Seed|Pool 1|Pool 6|Better Side
    1|Leinster|Munster|Leinster (based on league position)
    2|Northampton|Perprignan|Northampton (consistently in the HEC, Perpignan only there because of Toulon)
    3|Ospreys|Edinburgh|Ospreys (based on league position)
    4|Castres|Gloucester|Castres (won the Top14)

    Or based purely on league position:

    League|Pool 1|Pool 6|Better Side
    Pro12|Leinster|Munster|Leinster
    Pro12|Ospreys|Edinburgh|Ospreys
    AP|Northampton|Gloucester|Northampton
    Top 14|Castres|Perpignan|Castres

    Regardless of odds it's plainly obvious which pool has the toughest opposition. I just can't believe the discussion has gone on this long. Fair enough Pool 1 is hardly a Pool of Death. Leinster should be able to manage it even with some of the key players gone. But Munsters pool is one of only two pools where the first seeds are pretty much guaranteed 2 wins. The other being Pool 3. And with Gloucester and Perpignan being no great shakes that should really be another 2 home wins fairly handy. In fact for all the talk of Castres not being bothered with the HEC it's fair to say Perpignan may not be either. They'll need to worry about the Top14 as they didn't get into the HEC this season on their own steam. Munster should realistically have 16-20 points in the bag before the start of the season with away trips to Perpignan and Gloucester the only games unaccounted for.

    While Leinster should certainly win their 3 home games there is absolutely no guarantee that they'll win any of their away games. Ospreys away up first makes things even trickier. Northampton may be beatable at home but they have signed well over the summer so will be a better side than last season. Castres may either have no interest or have lost interest come January. However if they target the HEC this year, which is possible, they could well be in the hunt in January too. There's no way to really know. But there are definitely no away gimmes like Edinburgh in the group. So Leinster should realistically have 12-15 points in the bag with away trips to their bogey team, the Top 14 champions and the Aviva Premiership runners-up unaccounted for.


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    #132
    conf101
    Registered Users Posts: 1,037 ✭✭✭conf101


    I think Castres, having won the Top 14 last year, will be taking the HEC much more seriously this year. It's an unfortunate year to have them in our pool


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    #133
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    That's actually a fairly black and white way of looking at it molloyjh. Ofcourse not everything in sport is black and white, i.e; Castres will probably not give two fiddles, but it's pretty plain to see for anyone who has the tougher group.


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    #134
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    P_1 wrote: »
    Interestingly, after having a quick look at the odds I'm not too sure the bookies think Leinster have a tough group. 3rd overall favourites and 2nd shortest odds to win their pool would suggest that they think Leinster would have an easy run through to the QF and a reasonably decent seeding.

    If you're not too sure, read my posts yesterday.

    I think I've explained pretty clearly, but as you're not a WUM unlike others, I'd happily expand on the logic if asked.

    The odds suggest that Leinster are one of the best teams in the tournament, have a very difficult group with a lot of potential results, but even in the majority of cases, will still be able to progress and potentially win the tournament.

    Simple setup, as posited to Rightwing and ignored, If Castres and Scarlets swap groups tomorrow, what happens to the odds?


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    #135
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    .ak wrote: »
    That's actually a fairly black and white way of looking at it molloyjh. Ofcourse not everything in sport is black and white, i.e; Castres will probably not give two fiddles, but it's pretty plain to see for anyone who has the tougher group.

    I keep seeing this posted.

    Why does anyone believe this?


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    #136
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    .ak wrote: »
    That's actually a fairly black and white way of looking at it molloyjh. Ofcourse not everything in sport is black and white, i.e; Castres will probably not give two fiddles, but it's pretty plain to see for anyone who has the tougher group.

    Possibly, but as conf101 said above they may set their sights on the HEC this season after winning the Top14 last season. That's what Clermont did after all. There's really no way to know until the season starts. Either way I'd be fairly sure Perpignan will be less bothered unless their Top14 fortunes turn around.


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    #137
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Munster did a number on Castres and Saints home and away in 2011/2012 season. I regarded that as our easiest group ever, and by some distance.


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    #138
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Munster did a number on Castres and Saints home and away in 2011/2012 season. I regarded that as our easiest group ever, and by some distance.

    It's irrelevant. Further, if you call that Saints match at Thomond as 'doing a number' then you obviously don't remember that match. Same with Castres away.

    You still won't address key points made to you by other posters.


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    #139
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Munster did a number on Castres and Saints home and away in 2011/2012 season. I regarded that as our easiest group ever, and by some distance.

    Do you still? Do you think it's tougher than your current group? If so, why?

    And please, this time answer the actual question with a bit of detail actually explaining your position.

    My position is pretty straight forward. The teams in Pool 1 all fared better in the season just gone than teams in Pool 6 and Edinburgh have dropped to almost Zebre levels at this stage which makes Pool 6 so much easier. I've clearly stated that Castres levels of interest have yet to be identified, but Perpignan will have to focus on the Top14 because they are struggling there.

    If you look at some of the head to heads last season -
    Leinster were 2-0 vs Munster & Edinburgh
    Ospreys were 1-0 vs Munster (1 draw) and 1-1 vs Edinburgh
    Castres were 2-0 vs Perpignan
    Northampton were 2-0 vs Gloucester

    Nowhere in the last season did any of the Pool 6 sides do better than the Pool 1 sides and the only time a Pool 6 side beat a Pool 1 side last season was in Edinburgh when a horribly off-form Ospreys side lost. Combine that with the league positions etc and it seems to me to be a fairly rock solid case. If you have something to add that changes that then by all means fire away, but your opinion alone isn't enough.

    EDIT: BTW you beat Northampton at home with a last minute drop goal. That's hardly "doing a number" on a side. And as for Castres away you won by 3 points in a very tight game which ROG won with a, you guessed it, last gasp drop goal. This is what the Munster Rugby page had to say:

    http://www.munsterrugby.ie/rugby/9695.php
    Munster Rugby wrote:
    It was by no means a flawless performance and no-one recognises that better than themselves. But they displayed great fortitude throughout and a great deal of self belief.

    You recollection of those games seems a little off...


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    #140
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I keep seeing this posted.

    Why does anyone believe this?

    Past experience?


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    #141
    Garseys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,448 ✭✭✭Garseys


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I keep seeing this posted.

    Why does anyone believe this?

    General assumption of "they're french, and generally French teams could care less (Apart from CA, Toulon & Toulouse)":pac:

    (I'll point out that I think they'll be gunning for the HEC this year, so it won't make them walkovers).

    We're gonna have some definite squeaky bum time moments in this pool.


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    #142
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    haha, if that was Munster doing a number on Saints in Thomond park I must not understand the meaning of the phrase

    Also, that's two seasons ago, and completely irrelevant to where both sides are now


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    #143
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Also, Munster needed a drop goal in the dying moments from ROG in the first leg in Castre to win there too. Munster may have won six out of six in that group but they didn't get through it half as easily as six wins would suggest and they certainly didn't "do a number" on Castre or Saints home and away


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    #144
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Castres have just lost their excellent coaching staff (many would say they over achieved with Castres).

    Racing are going to be a very tough opposition this year between new coaching staff and players. ROG made a comment that they have 7 or 8 international props for starters. With the influx of Irish/Welsh players there and the HCup expert ROG to supplement a very highly regarded coaching team, I'd say they will do very well this year in the Heineken Cup.


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    #145
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,829 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They certainly have the squad to compete on two fronts (and I think their fly half is rather fond of the HEC), but I think their focus will be on the Top 14. They are in a grueling group as well.


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    #146
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Even if Castre complete disregard the HC Leinster will still have a tricky group. The notion that it's somehow an easy one is complete wide of the mark

    Speaks volumes that the only defense of that statement has been serious revisionism surrounding Munsters performance against two of the group members two seasons ago

    And also interesting that claims of Osprey's being "complete losers" have been more or less completely ignored when greeted with past results in both competitions proving otherwise


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    #147
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Also, Munster needed a drop goal in the dying moments from ROG in the first leg in Castre to win there too. Munster may have won six out of six in that group but they didn't get through it half as easily as six wins would suggest and they certainly didn't "do a number" on Castre or Saints home and away

    Considering where Munster were at the time, having lost a lot of big players, that wasn't bad going to do what they did.

    As for the first game against Saints - its not the first time that Munster got lucky with a win in Thomond Park - the very unfancied Montauban nearly pulled ioff a win in 08/09 season (19-17 - ROG penalty saved the day).


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    #148
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    If you swapped Leinster with Clermont, Leinster's odds for the H cup would drift dramatically. Same if they swapped with Ulster.

    Conclusion we can draw from this is, for the top seeds, there are only 2 tough groups this year.


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    #149
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    jm08 wrote: »
    Considering where Munster were at the time, having lost a lot of big players, that wasn't bad going to do what they did.

    As for the first game against Saints - its not the first time that Munster got lucky with a win in Thomond Park - the very unfancied Montauban nearly pulled ioff a win in 08/09 season (19-17 - ROG penalty saved the day).

    I'm not saying Munster did badly that year. Just refuting that it wasn't a stroll in the park as rightwing is implying to suit his argument


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    #150
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    If you swapped Leinster with Clermont, Leinster's odds for the H cup would drift dramatically. Same if they swapped with Ulster.

    Conclusion we can draw from this is, for the top seeds, there are only 2 tough groups this year.

    What are you basing that on?


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    #151
    former legend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,309 ✭✭✭former legend


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    They certainly have the squad to compete on two fronts (and I think their fly half is rather fond of the HEC), but I think their focus will be on the Top 14. They are in a grueling group as well.

    The Racing sqaud is here:
    http://www.racing-metro92.com/Effectif-53.html

    It's f**king comical the number of top-class players they have, and more importantly, they've identified the areas in which they were weak last season and signed accordingly (e.g. second-row and OH).

    I'm just glad they're in Clermont's group; they can take points off each other and if Quins can do likewise, hopefully whoever wins this group will be away from home in the QFs


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