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Heineken & Amlin Cup 2013/14 General Discussion

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    #92
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    so basically you have absolutely no idea of what we are talking about.
    --

    Firstly, I explained that the prices to win the competition were implicitly adjusted to factor in the difficulty that occurs when the group is so tough. A team that can sail to 6 BP victories in an easy group, get a good seeding position and a home QF and SF slot is always going to be more likely to win the competition than a team with the exact same ability, but in a group where the seeding, and home/away QF/SF rules will 'hurt' their chances.

    Secondly, I pointed out that a good way to figure out how tough a group was was to look what price the bookie's price the worst team to win that group.

    If it's a 100/1 shot, then realistically there's only 3 teams worth talking about in that group. A closer knit distribution of prices about the entire group will always indicate a far tougher group.

    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.


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    #93
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Rightwing wrote: »
    No, if you are looking just to win the pool, then Ulster's is deemed the hardest of them all, in fact 2nd seed Leicester are slight favourites.

    Not what I was implying, Emmets post explains how the pool odds point to it being one of the hardest groups:


    Deleted User wrote: »
    so basically you have absolutely no idea of what we are talking about.
    --

    Firstly, I explained that the prices to win the competition were implicitly adjusted to factor in the difficulty that occurs when the group is so tough. A team that can sail to 6 BP victories in an easy group, get a good seeding position and a home QF and SF slot is always going to be more likely to win the competition than a team with the exact same ability, but in a group where the seeding, and home/away QF/SF rules will 'hurt' their chances.

    Secondly, I pointed out that a good way to figure out how tough a group was was to look what price the bookie's price the worst team to win that group.

    If it's a 100/1 shot, then realistically there's only 3 teams worth talking about in that group. A closer knit distribution of prices about the entire group will always indicate a far tougher group.


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    #94
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    10/10


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    #95
    Buer
    Registered Users Posts: 24,197 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Um, isn't Emmet qualified in statistics?


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    #96
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Buer wrote: »
    Um, isn't Emmet qualified in statistics?

    Oh deary me if that's the case.


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    #97
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    Oh no

    You better be a maths/probability guru to make that statement.


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    #98
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Oh no

    You better be a maths/probability guru to make that statement.

    On the contrary it's very simple.

    If the bookies have a lot of teams at a short price to win the competition (i.e. Clermont's group), we can assume that's a tough group.


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    #99
    .ak
    Registered Users Posts: 30,308 Mod ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    Try engaging with the poster instead of making throw away remarks here. You've already been warned about this before. If you don't agree with him, fine, but atleast extend them the same courtesy as they are doing for you - explain your reasoning.


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    #100
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    On the contrary it's very simple.

    If the bookies have a lot of teams at a short price to win the competition (i.e. Clermont's group), we can assume that's a tough group.

    The fact that they have a weak team in the group means it is very likely that there will be two qualifiers from this group.

    Which means that the prices (to win the tournament) are shorter than tougher groups where it is likely that there will only be one qualifier.

    Groups where there are 'easy' Bonus points on offer are always going to be more likely to supply more than one qualifier than tougher groups.

    Of course, just say "nonsense" again and tell me to look at the odds.


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    #101
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    http://www.munsterrugby.ie/news/11985.php#.Ue6pnNLVD3Q

    Just sayin'
    Munster Rugby wrote:
    The general consensus among the sparse attendance at yesterday's Heineken Cup pool Draw in the Aviva Stadium was that Munster's Pool 6 was the best of the Irish lot.


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    #102
    Rightwing
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The fact that they have a weak team in the group means it is very likely that there will be two qualifiers from this group.

    Which means that the prices (to win the tournament) are shorter than tougher groups where it is likely that there will only be one qualifier.

    Groups where there are 'easy' Bonus points on offer are always going to be more likely to supply more than one qualifier than tougher groups.

    Of course, just say "nonsense" again and tell me to look at the odds.

    But Scarlets are priced next behind Castres in the betting market. The argument can be made that Scarlets instead of being 'weak' have found themselves in a very tough group that contains Quins/Racing/Clermont.


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    #103
    RuggieBear
    Registered Users Posts: 17,958 ✭✭✭✭RuggieBear


    Munster thread....take the HCup stuff elsewhere please.


    oh and Rightwing, you need to improve your posting and interaction with other posters... if you are even vaguely impolite in any of your posts from here on in (on this forum )you will be banned


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    #104
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    Rightwing wrote: »
    But Scarlets are priced next behind Castres in the betting market. The argument can be made that Scarlets instead of being 'weak' have found themselves in a very tough group that contains Quins/Racing/Clermont.

    Which betting market?

    The argument can't be made like that, unless you simply choose to ignore all available information.
    Such as Castres just winning the T14 while Scarlets lost 6/6 games in the HEC last year.

    If Castres and Scarlets swapped groups tomorrow, do you think Leinster's price for the HEC would stay the same? Do you think they'd be more likely to win their group?


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    #105
    Aliya Hissing Ubiquity
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Aliya Hissing Ubiquity


    RuggieBear wrote: »
    Munster thread....take the HCup stuff elsewhere please.


    oh and Rightwing, you need to improve your posting and interaction with other posters... if you are even vaguely impolite in any of your posts from here on in (on this forum )you will be banned

    can I bother you to knock all the posts into the other thread and delete this one so?


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    #106
    irishbucsfan
    Registered Users Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The problem is, I don't think you know yourself what you are talking about. Have a good look at the odds and get back to me.

    You really have no right to tell anyone (especially Emmett of all people who has explained these things brilliantly in the past) that they don't know what they are talking about.

    Your recent declarations on this forum have been that Castres had no chance of beating Clermont, Australia had no chance of beating the Lions (and the Lions would whitewash them) and then before the final test that the Lions had no chance of beating Australia. As I said before the final Lions test, someone could make good money betting on the opposite of what you tell people will happen.


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    #107
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,852 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Rightwing wrote: »
    On the contrary it's very simple.

    If the bookies have a lot of teams at a short price to win the competition (i.e. Clermont's group), we can assume that's a tough group.

    If you are in a tough group you are less likely to win the competition. Ergo your odds will be longer.

    That's relatively straightforward no?


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    #108
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    If you are in a tough group you are less likely to win the competition. Ergo your odds will be longer.

    That's relatively straightforward no?

    One would think so yes but it becomes a complicated argument when it flies directly in the face of something you've falsely claimed !:D


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    #109
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,852 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    former legend wrote: »
    The Guardian reckon it's the most demanding assignment:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jun/05/heineken-cup-draw-english-clubs

    To be fair, they are talking about it from NH's perspective. The group is harder for NH than for Leinster cause Leinster don't have to play themselves!


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    #110
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    FWIW I think Munster are a great bet at 20/1, certainly each way anyway. We've an easy group and despite Thomond not being the fortress it once was I'd fancy us in a quarter there over most of the sides that could potentially finish in the best runners up spots


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    #111
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Which betting market?

    The argument can't be made like that, unless you simply choose to ignore all available information.
    Such as Castres just winning the T14 while Scarlets lost 6/6 games in the HEC last year.

    If Castres and Scarlets swapped groups tomorrow, do you think Leinster's price for the HEC would stay the same? Do you think they'd be more likely to win their group?

    Says a lot that there has been no response to this

    Leinster do have a hard group, whatever about not agreeing with that but calling it "easy" is mad

    Also, considering Castre have won the t14 last season it certainly wouldn't be a big surprise to see them set their sights on Europe in a more meaningful way.


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    #112
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Interesting to know that those (two) who claim Leinster have an easy group would consider a tough group. You can pick it from the seeds here if you like, might be an interesting exercise

    Pool 1:Ulster, Munster, Leinster, Clermont, Toulon, Toulouse

    Pool 2: Leicester, Northampton, Saracens, Perpignan, Harlequins, Cardiff

    Pool 3: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Ospreys, Scarlets, Montpellier, Connacht.

    Pool 4: Gloucester, Zebre, Treviso, Exeter, Castres, Racing Metro.

    For what its worth I think the hardest draw possible out of this years draw would have been:

    Toulon/Leinster/Clermont (any one of this three, can't really separate them)
    Leicester
    Ospreys
    Racing Metro

    The softest possible group would have been:

    Munster
    Cardiff
    Edinburgh
    Zebre


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    #113
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Interesting to know that those (two) who claim Leinster have an easy group would consider a tough group. You can pick it from the seeds here if you like, might be an interesting exercise

    Pool 1:Ulster, Munster, Leinster, Clermont, Toulon, Toulouse

    Pool 2: Leicester, Northampton, Saracens, Perpignan, Harlequins, Cardiff

    Pool 3: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Ospreys, Scarlets, Montpellier, Connacht.

    Pool 4: Gloucester, Zebre, Treviso, Exeter, Castres, Racing Metro.

    For what its worth I think the hardest draw possible out of this years draw would have been:

    Toulon/Leinster/Clermont (any one of this three, can't really separate them)
    Leicester
    Ospreys
    Racing Metro

    The softest possible group would have been:

    Munster
    Cardiff
    Edinburgh
    Zebre

    The softest possible group you have is in fact impossible, since you need an English and French team in every pool.


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    #114
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    The softest possible group you have is in fact impossible, since you need an English and French team in every pool.


    When I was typing that I was thinking it wasn't right. Was going by no two teams in each group from the same country bar a French side in pool 4 who will have to double up


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    #115
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Cardiff from Tier 2 would have been sweet but then Munster would have been drawn with a tougher French team.

    Open to correction or a different opinion, but Munster got the best pool they could hope for: The weakest French team, one of the weaker English sides and one of the worst sides in the competition.


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    #116
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Cardiff from Tier 2 would have been sweet but then Munster would have been drawn with a tougher French team.

    Open to correction or a different opinion, but Munster got the best pool they could hope for: The weakest French team, one of the weaker English sides and one of the worst sides in the competition.

    Yep, picked the softest group again with the proper rules and came out with Munsters group. Now that's actually an easy group

    Leinster don't have an easy round bar Castre pack it in and put out B teams, but Saints and Ospreys aren't going to lie down at any stage in the competition


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    #117
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,852 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    The softest possible group you have is in fact impossible, since you need an English and French team in every pool.

    I think the hardest one is impossible too. Racing had to be drawn in a group with another French team.

    Leinster
    Leicester
    Montpelier
    Racing

    *shudder*


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    #118
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,852 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    Leinster don't have an easy round bar Castre pack it in and put out B teams, but Saints and Ospreys aren't going to lie down at any stage in the competition

    We got reasonably lucky with the fixtures in that respect, though I expect Castres won't pack it in at home even if they are out of it. They very nearly derailed our first HEC win - only got out of the group by gnat's arse thanks to losing there.


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    #119
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    I think the hardest one is impossible too. Racing had to be drawn in a group with another French team.

    Leinster
    Leicester
    Montpelier
    Racing

    *shudder*

    No it's possible alright, one of Castre and Racing will have to be drawn with another French side


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    #120
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,852 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »
    No it's possible alright, one of Castre and Racing will have to be drawn with another French side

    I thought Racing, as the 7th ranked French side, had to be drawn with another French team (rather than any two French sides).

    Edit: I'm pretty certain of this cause I remember Castres being put into our pool without a draw being made.


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    #121
    Ugo Monye spacecraft experience
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,221 ✭✭✭Ugo Monye spacecraft experience


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    I thought Racing, as the 7th French side, had to be drawn with another French team (rather than any two French sides).

    I thought it was either of the 4th seed French side?

    If that's the case so my group of death only works with Toulon/Clermont as top seeds and not Leinster


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