Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

maquiladora

18Z GFS. Unleash the beast. Thats sustained winds in knots. An area of hurricane force winds a couple of hundred miles wide there. On our 'doorstep'.

Brianmeath

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS. Unleash the beast. Thats sustained winds in knots. An area of hurricane force winds a couple of hundred miles wide there. On our 'doorstep'.

What sort of wind speeds would we be talking? I'm on my phone so can't really make out the charts.
Thanks.

maquiladora

andrew wrote: »

This is firmly FI though right? Or is the fact that the models are showing these at all something of significance?

The 'smaller' storm shown for Friday is FI because it's shown on one model then gone on the next etc. This bigger Atlantic low is much more likely to happen, but what remains unknown is just how strong it will be and where it's track will take it.

maquiladora

Brianmeath wrote: »

What sort of wind speeds would we be talking? I'm on my phone so can't really make out the charts.
Thanks.

About 150 km/h sustained winds. Gusts over 200 km/h. That would be all out at sea though, don't worry. :pac:

Min

Well I agree with Weathercheck, the fish can have this one.

I like my electricity and roofs on sheds...

In the perfect storm situation, this would be devastating for the country.

Brianmeath

maquiladora wrote: »

About 150 km/h sustained winds. Gusts over 200 km/h. That would be all out at sea though, don't worry. :pac:

Thanks, the perfect storm comes to mind.
Lets hope this baby explodes well away from us,

maquiladora

Chinese model.

Big Daddy Cool

Daniel2590 wrote: »

I'd imagine that rain would be the least of our worries if this arrived :pac:

Well i just about got away with the House not flooding last weekend, i dont fancy another weekend of it. I like MT'S forecast this morning, 5-15mm of rain, do rightly.

ninebeanrows

Most models/ensembles keep this storm out to sea.

But how about member 6??

maquiladora

0Z GFS brings it to 930mb. 0Z UKMO - 930mb. 0Z ECM - 928mb.

Pretty good agreement between the 3 main models now in terms of intensity. Still uncertainty about the track.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z GFS brings it to 930mb. 0Z UKMO - 930mb. 0Z ECM - 928mb.

Pretty good agreement between the 3 main models now in terms of intensity. Still uncertainty about the track.

This is for Sunday morning Maq?

dopolahpec

I've been watching this one keenly across all of the models on the Meteociel android app. This morning it appears to have pulled back from the apocalyptic intensity that was showing on the GFS ensembles yesterday evening. However, it is still showing as a possible major storm, for Ireland, on many models. In particular, the CMA (Chinese model) appears to be tracking this beast headlong against the west coast. This model has been performing well, and is being followed with interest by many of the posters on Netweather.

I actually thought it was funny that several GFS charts were being posted on Netweather showing this extraordinarily intense storm system in the Atlantic. Totally dominating the charts, and those discussing the charts were so snowblind it never raised a comment. 'oh look there's the possibility of a height rise in Greenland'...

To me it was like looking at a photograph and commenting on a mouse or something trivial in the foreground while the yeti or the loch ness monster grins in party hat in the background!!!!!

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

This is for Sunday morning Maq?

Saturday/Sunday yeah.

FAX chart for 84 hours. 932mb.

maquiladora

06Z GFS. 925mb.

weatherfiend

dopolahpec wrote: »

I've been watching this one keenly across all of the models on the Meteociel android app. This morning it appears to have pulled back from the apocalyptic intensity that was showing on the GFS ensembles yesterday evening. However, it is still showing as a possible major storm, for Ireland, on many models. In particular, the CMA (Chinese model) appears to be tracking this beast headlong against the west coast. This model has been performing well, and is being followed with interest by many of the posters on Netweather.

I actually thought it was funny that several GFS charts were being posted on Netweather showing this extraordinarily intense storm system in the Atlantic. Totally dominating the charts, and those discussing the charts were so snowblind it never raised a comment. 'oh look there's the possibility of a height rise in Greenland'...

To me it was like looking at a photograph and commenting on a mouse or something trivial in the foreground while the yeti or the loch ness monster grins in party hat in the background!!!!!

To be fair maquiladora has been mentioning this for a number of days - certainly since Monday if memory serves me correctly

dopolahpec

weatherfiend wrote: »

To be fair maquiladora has been mentioning this for a number of days - certainly since Monday if memory serves me correctly

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

weatherfiend

dopolahpec wrote: »

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

Perhaps I picked you up wrongly. What I understood from your post was that this upcoming event had been missed with all the hype about the snow (or lack thereof!) over the last couple of days. I know very little about charts etc - just enjoy the fun but I had picked up when maq mentioned that he had spotted this event coming.

red_bairn

dopolahpec wrote: »

And? To be fair I know he has, and I'm glad there is a thread dedicated to this. I don't understand what it is you are trying to say, unless you misconstrued my comment regarding Netweather as referring to this board.

I understand the analogy How long does it look for the high to set in place?

power101

Its gotten to the point where this thread seems to be " Who can find the model with the lowest mb for the storm"... and i have to say ... I like it!

irish1967

99% of the time I look forward to the Atlantic throwing a storm this direction but this one looks EVIL ! For a worst case scenario for the NW where does this low have to go ? N S E or W ? I'll be watching this one closely

(Edit: 99.9%)

tylercollins

To me this storm seems it would cause mass power outages, trees knocked down, roofs off building and generally a lot of damage!!

Should be interesting come Sunday night..

irish1967

tylercollins wrote: »

To me this storm seems it would cause mass power outages, trees knocked down, roofs off building and generally a lot of damage!!

Should be interesting come Sunday night..

Yeah.. my thoughts too but here in Donegal forecast of a 'storm' gets no real reaction... it's all relative I guess. Would like to be prepared if this one turned out to be 'Historic' (That's my favourite word when it comes to weather):)

dopolahpec

tylercollins wrote: »

To me this storm seems it would cause mass power outages, trees knocked down, roofs off building and generally a lot of damage!!

Should be interesting come Sunday night..

Yes, but remember the storm centre is currently progged to be several hundred miles off the coastline keeping the most severe winds away at sea. So that is a mitigating factor. It needs to be watched though as it is drifting about in the models.

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

To me this storm seems it would cause mass power outages, trees knocked down, roofs off building and generally a lot of damage!!

Should be interesting come Sunday night..

At the moment the models are keeping it well out at sea during it's most intense phase. It wouldn't cause any severe problems here if that happened.

Harps

irish1967 wrote: »

Yeah.. my thoughts too but here in Donegal forecast of a 'storm' gets no real reaction... it's all relative I guess. Would like to be prepared if this one turned out to be 'Historic' (That's my favourite word when it comes to weather):)

The hurricane force winds are forecast to be well out in the Atlantic, still an outside chance it could give us more than a glancing blow but the main thing of interest is simply how intense it is and how quickly it bombs rather than any effects on us

dopolahpec

The JMA model (Japanese), and the CMA (Chinese) both showing it further east than the european and american models

JanuarySnowstor

Of course chances are it wont deepen that much and if that happens it could get closer I would have thought??

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

The hurricane force winds are forecast to be well out in the Atlantic, still an outside chance it could give us more than a glancing blow but the main thing of interest is simply how intense it is and how quickly it bombs rather than any effects on us

Yep. Need to keep an eye on it though, it could still end up tracking close to us during its mature stage, could still pack a punch though not as severe as it would be during its peak. Also need to keep an eye on Friday still, that low has popped up again on the 06Z GFS and on several of the ensembles. Also need to keep an eye out for secondary development from the big low too. Interesting days ahead!

maquiladora

Wow

Would there be much rain? Already looks like more of a novelty than anything else wind-wise since it won't be that strong and what there will be will fizzle out loads by the time it actually gets here.