Sam Maguire 2013

keane2097

Is the idea of having a strong bench not massively overrated? Nobody is going to be able to adequately replace their three best players with their three best subs.

Dublin are best positioned to cope with losing their most important players but even with by far the deepest squad in the country if they lose Michael Dara McAuley they're more or less goosed.

Who do Mayo, Cork, Donegal or Kerry have to spring from the bench that's going to make people quiver in their boots?

Mayo are pretty deep with backs and have decent replacements at midfield but can't afford to lose anymore forwards. If Aidan O'Shea gets injured they'll be a soft touch.

Cork are reasonably solid all over but with O'Neill out again they can't really afford to lose any more forwards. Their backs are pretty bad but anyone who gets injured there can be replaced by someone of similar quality. If Aidan Walsh gets hurt they can't replace him.

Donegal are much weaker without Karl Lacey, certainly don't have any capable replacements if McFadden or Murphy get injured.

Kerry can't replace Cooper or Marc O'Sé but can put someone of comparable quality in for most of the rest.

Nobody has a strong bench. The teams who can probably most adequately cover losses in any position are probably Tyrone and Kildare, who have very strong benches but comparatively second rate starting 15s.

It's pretty stupid to bring squad depth into a discussion on who's most likely to win a 6 game championship.

It's all about the tactical nous and strength of the best 15s. Everyone can replace most of their players with players who are of a similar level, squad depth only matters if you lose one of your three or four most important players and none of the teams around at the moment will be able to do that and maintain a challenge anyway so it's a pointless topic.

Always_Running

Fair point take the top three players out of all the top sides and they will struggle however some teams don't have similar level players on the bench and for me that's where the better squad depth comes in.

keane2097

Always_Running wrote: »

Fair point take the top three players out of all the top sides and they will struggle however some teams don't have similar level players on the bench and for me that's where the better squad depth comes in.

Which of the contenders do you think don't have similar level players on the bench?

If I had to pick one out from the rest I'd say Donegal have the worst squad depth by a clear enough margin, but it's pretty irrelevant in such a poorly constructed Championship.

Always_Running

keane2097 wrote: »

Which of the contenders do you think don't have similar level players on the bench?

If I had to pick one out from the rest I'd say Donegal have the worst squad depth by a clear enough margin

Most of the contenders have a strong 22 nowadays they can bring on similar players to those that are starting. Mayo for example could take off S O'Shea,Boyle and replace them with Barry Moran,Chris Barrett likewise with Dublin,Cork.

I'd agree about Donegal and they managed to keep all their key players fit last year, can they do that this year?

davegrohl48

I prefer to look at squad n player form improvements, major positional changes. Cooper at Centre forward will be fascinating how teams deal with that If Anthony Maher has a good championship Kerry are my tip Think they should disrupt full backlines by allowing Darren OSullivan to cut towards goal on Cooper/Donaghy plays Cooper will lay it perfect into full forward line But they may need to sub out some older players early to maintain workrate

K-9

keane2097 wrote: »

Which of the contenders do you think don't have similar level players on the bench?

If I had to pick one out from the rest I'd say Donegal have the worst squad depth by a clear enough margin, but it's pretty irrelevant in such a poorly constructed Championship.

Donegal has probably the smallest squad depth, but probably the most settled squad, Declan/David Walsh will do jobs as subs or starters, Witherow did a good job in the league and seems a squad addition, McBrearty who was subbed in the AI Final, looks like he has stepped up to be an intrinsic part of the team, up there with McFadden and Murphy.

If you can't add 3/4 panel members from a league, well you hope your younger players and squad players become seamless first team players.

Put it this way, everybody went on about Cork's talent last year, I still think missing O'Neill might just cost them an AI, forwards like that win you All Irelands.

My worry for Dublin is they've such talent it's hard to pick a first 20, never mind 15 and going the direct route mightn't be of much benefit. Tyrone will probably benefit and fine tune more from the qualifier route, than an Ulster Championship that they'd probably breeze through like the league.

corny

K-9 wrote: »

My worry for Dublin is they've such talent it's hard to pick a first 20, never mind 15 and going the direct route mightn't be of much benefit. Tyrone will probably benefit and fine tune more from the qualifier route, than an Ulster Championship that they'd probably breeze through like the league.

I'd say Gavin has already settled on his team. The 6 forwards and two midfielders pick themselves. Fitzsimons or Nolan might force their way back in in defence but barring injury i'd say he'll pick the same 15 for the game against Kildare.

keane2097

Kerry won't win anything with the forward line that has started the first two Championship games because it's sorely lacking in pace.

If think if I was picking the team I'd be dropping Declan O'Sullivan, whose level has dropped a good bit IMO, for Darren and playing a FF line of O'Donoghue, Donaghy and Darren. That's a good inside line with bags of pace and cleverness to play off Donaghy effectively.

In the half forwards, I think Gooch on the 40 is something that should have been done years ago. I think you need to pick one of Galvin and O'Sullivan as they are the two players who have shown a drop in ability to last the pace in the last couple of years. Replace one with the other when tiredness sets in.

On the other wing I dunno. There are a lot of things I like about Donnacha Walsh but he makes such elementary mistakes at times. Would prefer a pure, pacy athlete in there, maybe Lyne.

I think a front eight of:

---

Maher---Buckley/Sheehan

---

Galvin

---

Cooper

---

Walsh/Lyne

Darren

---

Donaghy

---

O'Donoghue

with Declan O'Sullivan to come in off the bench and either Buckley or Sheehan as needed is no worse than any.

Stinicker

Kerry will win the All-Ireland this year, that is all.

Poor_old_gill

keane2097 wrote: »

Kerry won't win anything with the forward line that has started the first two Championship games because it's sorely lacking in pace.

If think if I was picking the team I'd be dropping Declan O'Sullivan, whose level has dropped a good bit IMO, for Darren and playing a FF line of O'Donoghue, Donaghy and Darren. That's a good inside line with bags of pace and cleverness to play off Donaghy effectively.

In the half forwards, I think Gooch on the 40 is something that should have been done years ago. I think you need to pick one of Galvin and O'Sullivan as they are the two players who have shown a drop in ability to last the pace in the last couple of years. Replace one with the other when tiredness sets in.

On the other wing I dunno. There are a lot of things I like about Donnacha Walsh but he makes such elementary mistakes at times. Would prefer a pure, pacy athlete in there, maybe Lyne.

I think a front eight of:

---

Maher---Buckley/Sheehan

---

Galvin

---

Cooper

---

Walsh/Lyne

Darren

---

Donaghy

---

O'Donoghue

with Declan O'Sullivan to come in off the bench and either Buckley or Sheehan as needed is no worse than any.

I agree with what you're saying about the lack of pace- my preference would be for Lyne to start on the wing.
I think Buckley is a certainty to be in the team ahead of Sheehan on the form he has shown.

I just think Walsh isn't decisive enough on the ball- the way football has gone in the last few years means we have been crying out (even more so than we would be anyway) for Tommy Walsh

Fr Tod Umptious

Thought I would revive this thread

mono_mac wrote: »

Keep your eyes on.monaghan

Firstly well done to mono_mac, looking ok so far

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Without offending Leitrim or NY the Championship is about to start and I thought I would dig this one out.

Here are the latest odds from PP
Dublin 5/2
Kerry 4/1
Donegal 9/2
Cork 6/1
Tyrone 10/1
Mayo 11/1

Compared to the week after the first round of league games
Kerry 7/2
Dublin 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Cork 4/1
Mayo 10/1

Which comapres with these on 28/11

Donegal 10/3
Cork - 7/2
Kerry 4/1
Dublin 4/1
Mayo 11/1

.

So here are the latest
Dublin 7/4
Mayo 10/3
Kerry 7/2
Cork 7/1
Donegal 9/1
Tyrone 14/1

I suppose Mayo are above Kerry based on the fact that if they keep winning Kerry and Dublin will have to meet in a semi-final, whereas if Mayo and Donegal win a quarter final they cannot meet in a Semi final

Donegal's loss both in the game and of players has really hit them.

Dubliner28

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Thought I would revive this thread



Firstly well done to mono_mac, looking ok so far



So here are the latest
Dublin 7/4
Mayo 10/3
Kerry 7/2
Cork 7/1
Donegal 9/1
Tyrone 14/1

I suppose Mayo are above Kerry based on the fact that if they keep winning Kerry and Dublin will have to meet in a semi-final, whereas if Mayo and Donegal keep winning they cannot meet in a Semi final

Donegal's loss both in the game and of players has really hit them.

Those odds are going to change Saturday night at 8.30

oneillMan999

Monaghan - Dublin in the lowest scoring final in history with Monaghan edging it.

nbar12

oneillMan999 wrote: »

Monaghan - Dublin in the lowest scoring final in history with Monaghan edging it.

hahahaha

GBXI

keane2097 wrote: »

Kerry won't win anything with the forward line that has started the first two Championship games because it's sorely lacking in pace.

If think if I was picking the team I'd be dropping Declan O'Sullivan, whose level has dropped a good bit IMO, for Darren and playing a FF line of O'Donoghue, Donaghy and Darren. That's a good inside line with bags of pace and cleverness to play off Donaghy effectively.

In the half forwards, I think Gooch on the 40 is something that should have been done years ago. I think you need to pick one of Galvin and O'Sullivan as they are the two players who have shown a drop in ability to last the pace in the last couple of years. Replace one with the other when tiredness sets in.

On the other wing I dunno. There are a lot of things I like about Donnacha Walsh but he makes such elementary mistakes at times. Would prefer a pure, pacy athlete in there, maybe Lyne.

I think a front eight of:

---

Maher---Buckley/Sheehan

---

Galvin

---

Cooper

---

Walsh/Lyne

Darren

---

Donaghy

---

O'Donoghue

with Declan O'Sullivan to come in off the bench and either Buckley or Sheehan as needed is no worse than any.

No offence, but I think you are daft as a brush to ever think about not starting Declan O'Sullivan! But from a Mayo point of view, go for it. Drop Gooch while you're at it!

davegrohl48

GBXI wrote: »

No offence, but I think you are daft as a brush to ever think about not starting Declan O'Sullivan! But from a Mayo point of view, go for it. Drop Gooch while you're at it!

I would agree that Dec OSullivans level has dropped I think he has picked a very good match strategy and attack in his post

GBXI

davegrohl48 wrote: »

I would agree that Dec OSullivans level has dropped I think he has picked a very good match strategy and attack in his post

As pacy as Darren O'Sullivan is, he's nowhere near as dangerous as Declan. He just doesn't have the football brain. Also, I have been very impressed with Declan so far this year for Kerry. Darren for me is best coming off the bench.

aidan24326

keane2097 wrote: »

Is the idea of having a strong bench not massively overrated?

Absolutely not. Having good players to come in off the bench is vital.

keane2097

aidan24326 wrote: »

Absolutely not. Having good players to come in off the bench is vital.

Donegal won the All Ireland last year with no bench at all.

keane2097

GBXI wrote: »

As pacy as Darren O'Sullivan is, he's nowhere near as dangerous as Declan. He just doesn't have the football brain. Also, I have been very impressed with Declan so far this year for Kerry. Darren for me is best coming off the bench.

The fact that Declan was good against suggests his attitude has been his problem the last couple of years rather than his engine. Hopefully that's the case, but when he drags his arse around the place like he did against Down in 2010 or Donegal last year he's a liability.

Fr Tod Umptious

keane2097 wrote: »

Donegal won the All Ireland last year with no bench at all.

And they're F**ked now with no bench at all.

keane2097

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And they're F**ked now with no bench at all.

Well that's the point I was making as far as I remember.

If Leo McLoone and Paddy McGrath were injured for Donegal they'd be grand even though they have no great subs. Since it's Lacey and McHugh who aren't right they'd be ****ed even if they had a great bench. Nobody has subs to replace guys like that.

Having a strong bench is irrelevant cos no one is going to get tired in six games over four months, the only relevant thing is keeping your MVPs fit. If you can't do that, you're dead, if you can you're grand unless you get an outlandish number of injuries to everyone else.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Before the Ulster Final I thought the AI was between Dublin, Donegal and Mayo, with Dublin slight favourites. I just can't see Kerry or Cork winning it, I think Tyrone have an outside chance, but still a good bit off my top 3.

After the Ulster Final and round 3 qualifiers, not much has changed, other than Donegal dropping a bit further back. However, if they get over Laois (which they will - easily) and whoever they meet in the QF, they'll be on the same level as Mayo and Dublin. I think they have to get Kerry if they want to get through to the SF, playing 3 games in 3 weeks won't suit a team like Donegal, who have probably the biggest work-rate of any of the counties along with smallest panel of proven players (in the top 6 of course), and if they meet Dublin or Mayo, I can see them being beaten as comfortably as they were in the UF.

I'd love to see Mayo draw Donegal in QF, think it would be a colossal match up, and would possibly be game of the year (not that there's many contenders so far).

Syferus

I'd safely say Darren is a better player today than Declan.

Declan O'S and Star's decline in form over the last two seasons or so have been the most bizarre things surrounding Kerry as both should still have a couple years of All-Star bothering performances in them, they're younger than the Galvins, the O'Ses and the O'Mahonys of the panel.

Star is a great jobber, not a great footballer, so he shouldn't be suffering from such a decline in form because he's asked to do a very specific job.

On Donegal I think the injuries this year exposed the massive folly of McGuiness in dispensing with Kevin Cassidy. Cassidy wasn't just a guy to have, he was a heartbeat of the defence. Can you imagine Donegal's spine against Monaghan bring so soft if Cassidy was at six?

Cassidy was a player in the same league as McHugh, the McGees and Lacey in terms of employing McGuiness' system. If anything his size and strength was the prototype for that system. Having him removed from the equation hurts Donegal in their current situation as much, if not more, than not having a strong bench.

GBXI

Syferus wrote: »

I'd safely say Darren is a better player today than Declan.

Declan O'S and Star's decline in form over the last two seasons or so have been the most bizarre things surrounding Kerry as both should still have a couple years of All-Star bothering performances in them, they're younger than the Galvins, the O'Ses and the O'Mahonys of the panel.

Star is a great jobber, not a great footballer, so he shouldn't be suffering from such a decline in form because he's asked to do a very specific job.

On Donegal I think the injuries this year exposed the massive folly of McGuiness in dispensing with Kevin Cassidy. Cassidy wasn't just a guy to have, he was a heartbeat of the defence. Can you imagine Donegal's spine against Monaghan bring so soft if Cassidy was at six?

Cassidy was a player in the same league as McHugh, the McGees and Lacey in terms of employing McGuiness' system. if anything his size and strength was the prototype for that system. Having him removed from the equation hurts Donegal in their current situation as much if not more than not having a strong bench.

Sorry but it's just wrong to think Darren is a better player than Declan. I mean Darren has barely nailed down a place on the team. I don't think Declan has ever been dropped.

Stylish, kicks of either foot, strong, great running with the ball and setting up scores. At home in either full or half forward lines. Darren is very good but just doesn't have the brain/composure or technique that his elder namesake does. End of story!

Syferus

It's far from the end of the story. Declan O'Sullivan has gone walkabouts on too many big days over the last few years to be considered a cast-iron starter.

Kerry today need pace more than they need a pretty footballer and Declan could easily lose out. As Keane said you could move him out to the HF line again but then it becomes a decision between him and Galvin and I still think Galvin makes a good case for starting in terms of setting a tempo and attitude for his team-mates. I'd be less hot on Galvin having more than 55 minutes, though. Were it not for the need to have Star available for the middle too I'd be keeping him out of the first 15 as well, but Fitzmaurice's hand may well be forced on that count.

fatalll

THFC wrote: »

Before the Ulster Final I thought the AI was between Dublin, Donegal and Mayo, with Dublin slight favourites. I just can't see Kerry or Cork winning it, I think Tyrone have an outside chance, but still a good bit off my top 3.

After the Ulster Final and round 3 qualifiers, not much has changed, other than Donegal dropping a bit further back. However, if they get over Laois (which they will - easily) and whoever they meet in the QF, they'll be on the same level as Mayo and Dublin. I think they have to get Kerry if they want to get through to the SF, playing 3 games in 3 weeks won't suit a team like Donegal, who have probably the biggest work-rate of any of the counties along with smallest panel of proven players (in the top 6 of course), and if they meet Dublin or Mayo, I can see them being beaten as comfortably as they were in the UF.

I'd love to see Mayo draw Donegal in QF, think it would be a colossal match up, and would possibly be game of the year (not that there's many contenders so far).

You think Kerry or Cork were not in the top 3 at any stage so..
The actual teams who play football....
And you think Tyrone have a better chance of winning the all-ireland then them....

Tyrone were well beaten last season by Kerry..admittedly it was in Killarney..
I think Cork have a great chance once they get their best 15 sorted...

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

fatalll wrote: »

You think Kerry or Cork were not in the top 3 at any stage so..
The actual teams who play football....
And you think Tyrone have a better chance of winning the all-ireland then them....

Tyrone were well beaten last season by Kerry..admittedly it was in Killarney..
I think Cork have a great chance once they get their best 15 sorted...

Cork and Kerry in the top 3? Definitely not. Shown nothing to be considered contenders imo. Have a track record of failing to beat Northern teams, of which there are 4 left, and likely will be 4 left by tomorrow night. The only one of those (of which they can face) who I would fancy them to beat would be Cavan.
Cork are Cork, they're not going anywhere with Counihan at the helm. In a way it would be good if they lost to Galway as that would practically ensure new management for them.
As for Tyrone, I say they have a chance because they still have a strong team, but the difference is they have Mickey Harte at the helm.

For the record, I still think any of Mayo, Dublin, Donegal, Cork, Tyrone and Kerry have a chance, but for the latter 3, a lot would have to go their way.

manofwisdom

THFC wrote: »

Cork and Kerry in the top 3? Definitely not. Shown nothing to be considered contenders imo. Have a track record of failing to beat Northern teams, of which there are 4 left, and likely will be 4 left by tomorrow night. The only one of those (of which they can face) who I would fancy them to beat would be Cavan.
Cork are Cork, they're not going anywhere with Counihan at the helm. In a way it would be good if they lost to Galway as that would practically ensure new management for them.
As for Tyrone, I say they have a chance because they still have a strong team, but the difference is they have Mickey Harte at the helm.

For the record, I still think any of Mayo, Dublin, Donegal, Cork, Tyrone and Kerry have a chance, but for the latter 3, a lot would have to go their way.

A lot has to go for any side that wins the All Ireland. Donegal managed to keep their main players fit last year and Dublin,Cork,Kerry all strugged through a number of games before winning the 2009,2010,2011 titles.

Donegal v Monaghan,Cavan v Derry games has shown how wide open this years championship has become. As ever the best side will win the Sam Maguire.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

manofwisdom wrote: »

A lot has to go for any side that wins the All Ireland. Donegal managed to keep their main players fit last year and Dublin,Cork,Kerry all strugged through a number of games before winning the 2009,2010,2011 titles.

Donegal v Monaghan,Cavan v Derry games has shown how wide open this years championship has become. As ever the best side will win the Sam Maguire.

No, what I mean is that a lot of external factors have go in Cork & Kerry's favour for them to win imo. I'm not saying Kerry didn't deserve any of their previous AIs, they did, no doubt, but it all depended on them, like Donegal last year and Dublin the previous year.

I think this year, if Dub, Mayo and to a lesser extent Donegal get everything right they will only be beaten by each other. I think Kerry, Cork and Tyrone need for external factors to go their way, like injuries to opposing teams players, a good draw, etc, while also getting everything on their side right. For those reasons I think it's a 3 horse race. But hey, it's only one man's opinion, for all I've said each of those 3 could be knocked come the the 5th of August, and hell, even Monaghan could be around for come September. I just think it's highly unlikely.