Sam Maguire 2013

Syferus

corny wrote: »

I agree it might be prudent to wait but I can't see that tbh. They won't be odds against in all three matches.

Even something like 4/6, 1/1 and 7/4 gives you 8/1. Meeting Dublin (always happens) might force them out to 7/4 but i can't see any of the rest forcing them significantly odds against.

They've form against Cork and personally i'd make Mayo strong favs against them given how poorly Counihan excels when playing highly organised teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry and Donegal don't set the world alight in the provincial rounds. Evens against all three if you're lucky.

By the looks of it they mean business this year. Still to see the rest obviously but i'm beginning to think Mayo are the most likely winner for this year.

Ah c'mon now. Dublin and Donegal remain a step ahead right now and beating Dublin for a third time in seven years on the big day at Croker is no mean feat given the form they're in. At the moment it's between those three, though.

Next weekend we'll see if Tyrone are genuine contenders (and by proxy where Donegal's heads are) or just excelling in the early season like they did last year.

intellectual dosser

Despite injuries, rested players and experimenting, Donegal still got relegated in the league and will need to produce a top performance to beat Tyrone on Sunday. The winner should take Ulster provided they keep their heads screwed on. Winning an All Ireland again for Donegal is going to be almost impossible when you consider the teams out there and the hunger required at each step. I guess Sunday will be a huge indicator for how Donegal's summer will turn out.

Mayo shouldnt be any more favored today than they were on Friday. I was absolutely amazed the RTE panelists predicted Galway - I firmly believe they only say what audiences might find interesting - even if its completely against their own beliefs. They backed a group of youngsters who finished 5th in Div2 to beat seasoned footballers who finished 4th in Div1. No one predicted the margin, but no one predicted three GIFTS in the first half, however I think it was always going to be Mayo's day.

For me Dublin are going to win the All Ireland. They have some fresh bodies, but more importantly fresh management who clearly are tuned in looking at the league. In GAA it's never a case of "whoever beats X will win the All Ireland", so I'll be simply grateful to whomever can clear the Dubs off the radar.

I hope its a great summer! I enjoyed Cavan v Armagh yesterday, it was unfortunate the second game was so short as a contest. Good luck everyone and enjoy!

Donegal Abu!

Fr Tod Umptious

corny wrote: »

I agree it might be prudent to wait but I can't see that tbh. They won't be odds against in all three matches.

Even something like 4/6, 1/1 and 7/4 gives you 8/1. Meeting Dublin (always happens) might force them out to 7/4 but i can't see any of the rest forcing them significantly odds against.

They've form against Cork and personally i'd make Mayo strong favs against them given how poorly Counihan excels when playing highly organised teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry and Donegal don't set the world alight in the provincial rounds. Evens against all three if you're lucky.

By the looks of it they mean business this year. Still to see the rest obviously but i'm beginning to think Mayo are the most likely winner for this year.

They are a valid contender, and there are only a small few valid contenders.
They will be finalists again if you ask me and I hope they win it, but I would not hand them it just yet.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But I doubt there will be a big drop if the win on Sunday, they are already favourites in that game.

Well I was wrong, they have now shortened to 8/1, but then again the 17pts may have been a factor.

robbiezero

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Despite injuries, rested players and experimenting, Donegal still got relegated in the league and will need to produce a top performance to beat Tyrone on Sunday. The winner should take Ulster provided they keep their heads screwed on. Winning an All Ireland again for Donegal is going to be almost impossible when you consider the teams out there and the hunger required at each step. I guess Sunday will be a huge indicator for how Donegal's summer will turn out.

Mayo shouldnt be any more favored today than they were on Friday. I was absolutely amazed the RTE panelists predicted Galway - I firmly believe they only say what audiences might find interesting - even if its completely against their own beliefs. They backed a group of youngsters who finished 5th in Div2 to beat seasoned footballers who finished 4th in Div1. No one predicted the margin, but no one predicted three GIFTS in the first half, however I think it was always going to be Mayo's day.

For me Dublin are going to win the All Ireland. They have some fresh bodies, but more importantly fresh management who clearly are tuned in looking at the league. In GAA it's never a case of "whoever beats X will win the All Ireland", so I'll be simply grateful to whomever can clear the Dubs off the radar.

I hope its a great summer! I enjoyed Cavan v Armagh yesterday, it was unfortunate the second game was so short as a contest. Good luck everyone and enjoy!

Donegal Abu!

Very surprised at Spillane and O'Rourke predicting a Galway win. The sort of "romance" is largely gone from the football championship in modern times, with it being much harder to beat top level teams who are professional in all but name in their preparations.
In the past Galway v Mayo in Connacht championship was very much an "on the day" game and hard to predict, likewise Dublin v Meath, or when any of the top 5/6 teams in Ulster clashed.
At the current time, the division 1 teams really are at a different level to lower level Div 2 and below teams.
Over the last 7/8 years Galway have been the most disappointing team in the championship. Plenty of talent and ability available to them, but they are still playing football as it was when they last won the All-Ireland in 2001.
Football has moved on a lot. Kerry/Dublin etc have had to adapt their style to modern needs. Galway have not.
In the last 2 years Dublin and Donegal have brought football to a new level, Mayo are not far off them (could even be up with them this year), Tyrone seem to be coming (this years championship will show how far) with Kerry and Cork struggling to keep up.

Syferus

To be fair that sentiment was very much wideapread out west so it's not like they were the only ones thinking Galway could win. Mayo's team sheet inspired little convince they could put up a big score (and until they start putting up comfortable scoring consistently it will remain a concern) but that's football. That was the very worst Galway performance I have ever seen so let's split the credit properly when it comes to analysing the scoreline.

keane2097

corny wrote: »

I agree it might be prudent to wait but I can't see that tbh. They won't be odds against in all three matches.

Even something like 4/6, 1/1 and 7/4 gives you 8/1. Meeting Dublin (always happens) might force them out to 7/4 but i can't see any of the rest forcing them significantly odds against.

They've form against Cork and personally i'd make Mayo strong favs against them given how poorly Counihan excels when playing highly organised teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry and Donegal don't set the world alight in the provincial rounds. Evens against all three if you're lucky.

By the looks of it they mean business this year. Still to see the rest obviously but i'm beginning to think Mayo are the most likely winner for this year.

7/4 only equates to ~1.75pt handicap, could easily see them getting that sort of a start against Donegal or Dublin. They'll be odds against vs Cork or Kerry if they meet them either. Kerry maybe 10/11 your pick but they'd probably start 6/4 and +1 against Cork.

corny

Syferus wrote: »

Ah c'mon now. Dublin and Donegal remain a step ahead right now and beating Dublin for a third time in seven years on the big day at Croker is no mean feat given the form they're in. At the moment it's between those three, though.

Next weekend we'll see if Tyrone are genuine contenders (and by proxy where Donegal's heads are) or just excelling in the early season like they did last year.

Its hardly a huge leap and keep in mind these aren't steadfast proclamations i'm making.

Without even watching Donegal closely i'd be fairly sure the curse of defending champions will slow them down enough for the likes of Mayo to get over the line against them. They don't have that much in hand to start with.

I'm not sure how Dublins new style of play will fair in August and September. They've a good mix of youth and seasoned performers and could very well take all comers but for me its always better the devil you know...

Stoner

I don't think Dublin will go all the way this year, there are too many issues around the middle compared to Kerry, Mayo, Tyrone and Donegal, all these teams have a more settled core, the manager has a lot to learn too and will possibly need a bit of senior experience, surprisingly that argument is not getting much air, but he has yet to manage a senior inter county championship game.

Mayo look very good IMHO, possibly the best but for some reason I could see Tyrone beating them even though I could see Donegal beating Tyrone, stupid and all as that sounds but I think Tyrone have the best chance of beating Mayo.

Mayo seem to be very hungry, of all the teams mentioned in this post they have yet to win a championship and that must count for something.

Donegal will be around I think, Lacey will make a difference, anything could happen in the tyrone game, form being beaten and having a couple of important players being suspended to them winning by 5 or 6 points.
Cork and Kerry might have something in the basement but I see the winner coming from Tyrone, Mayo or Donegal

blowitupref

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well I was wrong, they have now shortened to 8/1, but then again the 17pts may have been a factor.

Has been some amount of money placed on Mayo since Sunday. Now 7/1 level with Cork.

BPKS

blowitupref wrote: »

Has been some amount of money placed on Mayo since Sunday. Now 7/1 level with Cork.

Will Mayo people ever learn?

Dubliner28

Dublin(F) & Tipp(H) double for me.

Colm R

Dubliner28 wrote: »

Dublin(F) & Tipp(H) double for me.

Thanks for claryfying which sport.... I was going to put a tenner on Dublin Hurling and Tipp Football.

Gryire

Kerry at home for all provincial games assuming they win. They will reach the quarter final as fresh as any team. Last year they got beat by Donegal by two points. They were short 4 of their first team. They are a lot stronger this year. A great bet at 4/1. Dublin are a one man team and will struggle if BB is marked/injured.

DoctaDee

Gryire wrote: »

Kerry at home for all provincial games assuming they win. They will reach the quarter final as fresh as any team. Last year they got beat by Donegal by two points. They were short 4 of their first team. They are a lot stronger this year. A great bet at 4/1. Dublin are a one man team and will struggle if BB is marked/injured.

Jaysis ... of all years to throw out this old chestnut .... have a peek at the previous 4 months

Fowler87

DoctaDee wrote: »

Jaysis ... of all years to throw out this old chestnut .... have a peek at the previous 4 months

Wouldn't rise to that. Dublin have an exceptional panel and would be hard stop with or without the Brogans imo

DoctaDee

Fowler87 wrote: »

Wouldn't rise to that. Dublin have an exceptional panel and would be hard stop with or without the Brogans imo

Ah yeah I know it's a lazy analysis .. Dublin's year will be determined more by the backs than BB. As others have said defensively they'll be there for the taking by a quality front 6 if they keep the loose structure of the league

Gryire

DoctaDee wrote: »

Jaysis ... of all years to throw out this old chestnut .... have a peek at the previous 4 months

Like it or not, Dublin are very dependent on BB. League is not championship.

Man on Fire

dublin or mayo this year

Xenophile

Surprise, surprise, Tipp will beat Kerry next Sunday. Remember you have been advised.

Gryire

Man on Fire wrote: »

dublin or mayo this year

On what basis do you discount Kerry

Man on Fire

saw them in the league a bit... bar there last 2 games they wer alright... seems they mite have to rebuild a bit to be rated as sam winners

Gryire

Man on Fire wrote: »

saw them in the league a bit... bar there last 2 games they wer alright... seems they mite have to rebuild a bit to be rated as sam winners

League form I' is not relevant as they were trying out a lot of new players. They are second favorites and I think this is reasonable. I think Mayo are a good price at 9/1. Dublin are too low aft 9/4.

Man on Fire

kerry are always favs or 2nd favs.... still a few players short imho. dublin will have the best squad this year.. they could name 2 teams and win the championship.. have a sneaky feeling mayo will do it... its only a matter of time they get that rub of the green

robbiezero

Gryire wrote: »

Like it or not, Dublin are very dependent on BB. League is not championship.

Much less so than any other year though I would think, but as you say it remains to be seen in the championship

klairondavis

Dublin are no different to any other team, if they lose one or two key players like Brogan their chances will be severely reduced. Kerry have Cooper and O'Sullivan, Donegal Murphy and Lacey, Mayo McLoughlin and Higgins, Tyrone O'Neill and Cavanagh etc.

Fr Tod Umptious

Gryire wrote: »

Kerry at home for all provincial games assuming they win. They will reach the quarter final as fresh as any team. Last year they got beat by Donegal by two points. They were short 4 of their first team. They are a lot stronger this year. A great bet at 4/1. Dublin are a one man team and will struggle if BB is marked/injured.

You are correct that the home games will help them, plus they may meet Cork in the final, if they loose that then they only have one qualifier game to get through rather than three last year.

But they are not as strong as last year as you suggest, in fact they are weaker.
They have a very thin panel.
They have had a terrible 12 months of it, a bad championship last year, and a terrible league this year.

In this years league they have once again had to rely on the old staggers to get them out of trouble. None of the players that helped them get to the top of Div 1 in 2012 were a factor in 2013, Curtain, BJK, O' Donoughe.
The starting 6 forwards in their last few league games included 5 guys that had been there for years, Gooch, Donaghey, Declan, Darran, and Galvin, Lyne being the only relative newcomer.
Lose any one of those 5 and apart from Donnacha Walsh the guys to replace them are not up to scratch.
Look at them last year when they lost Sheehan for the Cork game and again during the game v Donegal, they had no one to replace him.
Sheehan is just on his way back from injury.

They think they have found a full back in Mark Griffin who had a few good league games, but it will be interesting to see if he looses out when the injury 30 something former wing back O' Mahoney clears up,
Their captain is a 30 sometyjing one retired half back who was really a half forward in his good days, and he has also had injuries lately.

I would not be surprised if they win Munster but they will not be a match for much beyond that.

Syferus

Jesus, Kerry ain't stronger than they were last year. Donegal had Kerry killed off long before that late goal let them entertain faint hopes of a revival, they simply couldn't cope with Donegal's massed defence. Donegal put in their worst performance of the championship and still beat Kerry relatively handily. If Donegal's heads are screwed on and they meet Kerry this year I can foresee a mini hockeying for the Kingdom.

The will go down as one of the great teams in the history of the game. They just aren't a great team anymore.

Oh, and Dublin are clearly anything but a one man team now. They could leave Brogan off and still beat top teams.

DARK-KNIGHT

i put a 40 euro bet on kildare to win sam at 20-1, good to have an interesting bet and odds way too short on the fave two or three teams. live hope pray and hope to god we get luck of draw etc... realistically before anyone says it i know we are very long way away of really challenging but hey its championship so who knows...

realistically cant look past dublin and mayo. tyrone very dark horses too. donegal way too hard to win it back to back. kerry just are not the same team from 2/ 3 years ago.. i feel cork will be really up for it this year they will want to prove their footballing skills.

corny

Syferus wrote: »

Jesus, Kerry ain't stronger than they were last year. Donegal had Kerry killed off long before that late goal let them entertain faint hopes of a revival, they simply couldn't cope with Donegal's massed defence. Donegal put in their worst performance of the championship and still beat Kerry relatively handily. If Donegal's heads are screwed on and they meet Kerry this year I can foresee a mini hockeying for the Kingdom.

The will go down as one of the great teams in the history of the game. They just aren't a great team anymore.

Oh, and Dublin are clearly anything but a one man team now. They could leave Brogan off and still beat top teams.

That and they just couldn't compete with their physicality. Remember being struck by the complete disparity in power and aggression that day. Even still, i'm loath to rule them out this year.

Stoner

DARK-KNIGHT wrote: »

i put a 40 euro bet on kildare to win sam at 20-1, good to have an interesting bet and odds way too short on the fave two or three teams. live hope pray and hope to god we get luck of draw etc... realistically before anyone says it i know we are very long way away of really challenging but hey its championship so who knows...

realistically cant look past dublin and mayo. tyrone very dark horses too. donegal way too hard to win it back to back. kerry just are not the same team from 2/ 3 years ago.. i feel cork will be really up for it this year they will want to prove their footballing skills.

I think it would be nice to see kildare do well this year , but I think they have lost ground on Dublin, Tyrone, Donegal and Mayo in the past year, they look like a team that was at its best two or three years ago . Obviously I could be completely wrong but I don't see them beating two of the above teams this year. I left out Kerry and Cork as I am only talking how teams have performed in the past couple of years with respect to kildare. I think cork and Kerry have fallen back too recently.