Sam Maguire 2013

Fr Tod Umptious

corny wrote: »

At this stage Mayo are huge at 10/1 imo.

They're probably the only top side i'd be certain will perform this year; the rest have legitimate questions to answer. Don't know if thats good enough or not but Dublin and Donegal proved in consecutive years there's nothing like an agonising defeat to build the following years campaign.

Well not really
Look at Mayo, they have never came back stronger after a defeat.
Kerry are a team that in their prime could really turn it on the year after a bad loss, 2004, 2006, 2009 but I am not sure other teams have that bouncbackability

Donegal in 2012 was a progression on the work done the previous yaer
Dublin in 2011 the same
Why did Cork not do it in 2012 after the loss to Mayo in 2011 ?

Mayo are great value at 10/1 all the same

premierstone

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Out of interest here are the latest odds for 2013 from Paddy Power

Kerry 7/2
Dublin 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Cork 4/1
Mayo 10/1

Which comapres with these on 28/11

Donegal 10/3
Cork - 7/2
Kerry 4/1
Dublin 4/1
Mayo 11/1

I am really suprised that Kerry have come in by half a point.
If Dublin beat them on Sunday then I can image a major swing towards Dublin.

In fairness they are all bad prices, adding up them 5 comes to a 105% book and there are 27/28 other counties involved (Granted a large porportion of those have zero chance of winning)

corny

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well not really
Look at Mayo, they have never came back stronger after a defeat.

Nonsense argument. Mayo under Horan are a completely different animal to the Mayo teams of the recent past. They're tough, resilient, ruthless and more than willing to do whatever it takes. They share many of the traits that won Dublin and Donegal All Ireland wins. The fact they don't have an All Ireland medal may give them the edge required over the teams who've been there done that.

Always_Running

DARK-KNIGHT wrote: »

Mayo only value for money bet there imo

Great value for each way bet i'm not sure have they got what it takes to win the All Ireland though.

Dirty Dingus McGee

Always_Running wrote: »

Great value for each way bet i'm not sure have they got what it takes to win the All Ireland though.

I think Mayo are lacking a little bit of class in the forward line to be an all ireland winning team.If Cillian O'Connor can up his performances in open play which he has the potential to that might solve that issue

DARK-KNIGHT

Always_Running wrote: »

Great value for each way bet i'm not sure have they got what it takes to win the All Ireland though.

Tbhthere are 7 teams I feel are capable of winning Sam. 4 favourites but 7 actually 8 I feel are dangerous enough to topple any of the top 4..

I have said it before and ill say it again its open to 8 teams any other teams are filling gaps IMO

Tom Joad

Bookies are no fools and it is hard to see outside Dublin, Cork, Mayo and Kerry for me. Would put Tyrone just outside that group with Donegal and Kildare to a lesser extent. While Kerry don't look like an All-Ireland winning team at the minute only a fool would rule them out. Only bet of interest to me would be backing Tyrone or Kildare to reach the final or take a punt on someone like Galway or Derry to reach the final ala Down a few yeard ago.

tacofries

corny wrote: »

Don't know if thats good enough or not but Dublin and Donegal proved in consecutive years there's nothing like an agonising defeat to build the following years campaign.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well not really
Look at Mayo, they have never came back stronger after a defeat.

In fairness I think the only reason Mayo didn't come back strong after the defeats of 2004 and 2006 is because they weren't just defeats, but instead they were almighty hammerings! I feel however the likes of the final last year will make us want to win more as we realise how close we actually were to holding Sam, Whereas back in the other years we felt that really we were way below the standard needed to win him since we lost by so much.

blowitupref

tacofries wrote: »

In fairness I think the only reason Mayo didn't come back strong after the defeats of 2004 and 2006 is because they weren't just defeats, but instead they were almighty hammerings! I feel however the likes of the final last year will make us want to win more as we realise how close we actually were to holding Sam, Whereas back in the other years we felt that really we were way below the standard needed to win him since we lost by so much.

Weren't hammered in 1989 or 1997 and it took a number of years to come back. It's hard to know the extra expectations won't be helpful.

Fr Tod Umptious

robbiezero wrote: »

Kerry favourites?
Very strange. Dublin and Donegal should be well ahead of them, probably Cork and Mayo too.
Donegal are now a good bet. Odds moved out based on their game with Kildare in which they were only back from holiday without much training done, and still pushed Kildare to the pin of their collar.

Kerry will always be a short price with bookies because people will back them based on history and a feeling that 'you can never rule them out'
I think their price will drift as the league goes on and the true extent of the job they have to do to rebuild is clear to all.

Dublin will always be shorter odds than most expect too because of the volumes that will be placed on them because they are Dublin.
Back in the mid 2000s when they were s**te they were still 4th favorite or so for the AI at the start of the year
Based on the Kerry team that was named for the game on Sunday I would be surprised if Dublin do not win it and then just watch the price drop as suddenly they become raging hot favorites after two league wins on the trot.

WesternZulu

Dirty Dingus McGee wrote: »

I think Mayo are lacking a little bit of class in the forward line to be an all ireland winning team.If Cillian O'Connor can up his performances in open play which he has the potential to that might solve that issue

You have to remember that Mayo were missing Andy Moran for the Dublin and Donegal match last year.

He is a forward that would walk onto any team in the country so he'll no doubt improve the team in 2013.

henke

I think it will be interesting to see how donegal fare this year. Think it will definitely be tougher for us but one prospect that excites me is that I don't think the country seen anywhere near the best of Michael Murphy last year. Him at full fitness from the word go will be a massive boost to us retaining Sam.

Dirty Dingus McGee

WesternZulu wrote: »

You have to remember that Mayo were missing Andy Moran for the Dublin and Donegal match last year.

He is a forward that would walk onto any team in the country so he'll no doubt improve the team in 2013.

He's a class player alright and was a big loss for Mayo in the All Ireland final but I'd just be worried he might not get back to his great form of the last couple of years when he comes back from his injury.

Karl96

For Donegal to retain Sam, I think they need an injury free year, that will be key. Last year they operated with 18-20 players so having the big players available will be extremely important. I can see it being very difficult though, with Tyrone in the first game. Tyrone have the like of Kyle Coney and Ronan O'Neill back from injury so they will be very well equipped and hungry this year. As well as that, there's Dublin. Dublin will be a serious animal for many years to come with the quality of player they have available to them. their forward line is fantastic and under new management I can see them being hard to beat this year. Dublin will certainly be the team to beat. Being from Donegal, I'd love to see them retain Sam but it definitely won't be easy.

rossie1977

mcguinness is the best manager in ireland by a country mile, the players all believe in him and in the system, to lose someone like cassidy and go completely unnoticed is incredible, neil gallagher didn't start against kerry in the quarters and again they just slotted someone else in there effortlessly

Smartly Dressed

Whoever wins, it won't be down to luck because there is no such thing.

Fr Tod Umptious

Without offending Leitrim or NY the Championship is about to start and I thought I would dig this one out.

Here are the latest odds from PP
Dublin 5/2
Kerry 4/1
Donegal 9/2
Cork 6/1
Tyrone 10/1
Mayo 11/1

Compared to the week after the first round of league games
Kerry 7/2
Dublin 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Cork 4/1
Mayo 10/1

Which comapres with these on 28/11

Donegal 10/3
Cork - 7/2
Kerry 4/1
Dublin 4/1
Mayo 11/1

So all the money is now on Dublin as you would expect.
I still think Donegal and Kerry are to short, and that Mayo, and now Tyrone, are very good value.

Still think it will be a Dublin v Mayo final.

Always_Running

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Without offending Leitrim or NY the Championship is about to start and I thought I would dig this one out.

Here are the latest odds from PP
Dublin 5/2
Kerry 4/1
Donegal 9/2
Cork 6/1
Tyrone 10/1
Mayo 11/1

Compared to the week after the first round of league games
Kerry 7/2
Dublin 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Cork 4/1
Mayo 10/1

Which comapres with these on 28/11

Donegal 10/3
Cork - 7/2
Kerry 4/1
Dublin 4/1
Mayo 11/1

So all the money is now on Dublin as you would expect.
I still think Donegal and Kerry are to short, and that Mayo, and now Tyrone, are very good value.

Still think it will be a Dublin v Mayo final.

Have you money on it? If Mayo win on Sunday the odds will be alot less than 11/1

corny

Am i right in saying the Leinster champions play the Munster champions (assuming they win their QF's) in the semis?

Always_Running

corny wrote: »

Am i right in saying the Leinster champions play the Munster champions (assuming they win their QF's) in the semis?

Yes correct.

Fr Tod Umptious

Always_Running wrote: »

Have you money on it? If Mayo win on Sunday the odds will be alot less than 11/1

I have money on Mayo every year , as the old saying goes a fool and his money are easily parted

But I doubt there will be a big drop if the win on Sunday, they are already favourites in that game.
Mayo are too small for one win to make a big change, unlike Dublin and Kerry were there is always a lot of people willing to back them and others who will tell you that they will be champions after any sort of win.

Just look at Kerry this year in the league, some commentators now have them as real contenders after wins agisnt two average teams in Down and Cork, and a win against a Tyrone team that had nothing to play for, all that after a pretty dismal start to the league.

ciaeim

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I have money on Mayo every year , as the old saying goes a fool and his money are easily parted

But I doubt there will be a big drop if the win on Sunday, they are already favourites in that game.
Mayo are too small for one win to make a big change, unlike Dublin and Kerry were there is always a lot of people willing to back them and others who will tell you that they will be champions after any sort of win.

Just look at Kerry this year in the league, some commentators now have them as real contenders after wins agisnt two average teams in Down and Cork, and a win against a Tyrone team that had nothing to play for, all that after a pretty dismal start to the league.

'some commentators have them as real contenders'.....how silly they are, obviously know nothing about football

Hulk Hands

Always_Running wrote: »

Have you money on it? If Mayo win on Sunday the odds will be alot less than 11/1

Why would they be?

Tyrone are this years 'fashionable outsiders', and thus are ridiculously poor value at a best priced 11's on what they've achieved in recent years. Mayo are far from value at 11's in a 130% book either at this stage. If you did a treble of Mayo winning their QF, SF and All Ireland final, i'm fairly sure you'd get near 11/1. And that's without worrying about them even getting there. Mayo's record in finals will ensure they'd never be shorter than 6/4 or so in a final.

I have to laugh at the assertion that Cork are an 'average side', given that overall they've probably been the best side in the country over the past 5 years. Gun to the head, they'd be the side i'd back at this stage at 6's but there's very little juice in a 130% + book with the Betfair market yet to form properly. I'd need to see them in action against Kerry first before acting.

Fr Tod Umptious

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why would they be?

Tyrone are this years 'fashionable outsiders', and thus are ridiculously poor value at a best priced 11's on what they've achieved in recent years. Mayo are far from value at 11's in a 130% book either at this stage. If you did a treble of Mayo winning their QF, SF and All Ireland final, i'm fairly sure you'd get near 11/1. And that's without worrying about them even getting there. Mayo's record in finals will ensure they'd never be shorter than 6/4 or so in a final.

I have to laugh at the assertion that Cork are an 'average side', given that overall they've probably been the best side in the country over the past 5 years. Gun to the head, they'd be the side i'd back at this stage at 6's but there's very little juice in a 130% + book with the Betfair market yet to form properly. I'd need to see them in action against Kerry first before acting.

Firstly, I don't understand betting enough to know what you mean by 130% + book.

Secondly my assertion that Cork were average was more to do with the way they went out and performed v Kerry that day, and in this league season, than what they had done in the recent past.
Thirdly I agree that Tyrone ate this years 'fhasionable outsider'

Fr Tod Umptious

ciaeim wrote: »

'some commentators have them as real contenders'.....how silly they are, obviously know nothing about football

well it's more like 'lazy analysis'.
The way Kerry have performed in the last 12 months and given the fact that they have a very weak plane tells me that they are not contenders

Hulk Hands

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Firstly, I don't understand betting enough to know what you mean by 130% + book.

If me and you were flipping a coin for a fiver, we'd both have evens (50%), and have a 100% book. A bookie will only offer you 5/6 (54%) on heads or tails, creating a 108% book. Anything over 100% is called an overround, a bookie always has one. In this instance, the overround is especially high, leading to less value for punters. Betfair bets to 100%, but the market is yet to form properly. For inexperienced punters having a bet later in the year, that's the best place to go.

Always_Running

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why would they be?

How about now ?

seligehgit

Dublin are the standout team/squad for me at present although hoping Mayo can finally bring home Sam(fear we're still lacking sufficient quality inside forwards).

Hulk Hands

Always_Running wrote: »

How about now ?

They're still 9/1, if i'm being pedantic I can say that's not 'much shorter'! Still though, nobody couldve expected that

I still maintain if you treble them from the QF onwards you'll get near 11/1. Pointless backing them now

corny

Hulk Hands wrote: »

They're still 9/1, if i'm being pedantic I can say that's not 'much shorter'! Still though, nobody couldve expected that

I still maintain if you treble them from the QF onwards you'll get near 11/1. Pointless backing them now

I agree it might be prudent to wait but I can't see that tbh. They won't be odds against in all three matches.

Even something like 4/6, 1/1 and 7/4 gives you 8/1. Meeting Dublin (always happens) might force them out to 7/4 but i can't see any of the rest forcing them significantly odds against.

They've form against Cork and personally i'd make Mayo strong favs against them given how poorly Counihan excels when playing highly organised teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry and Donegal don't set the world alight in the provincial rounds. Evens against all three if you're lucky.

By the looks of it they mean business this year. Still to see the rest obviously but i'm beginning to think Mayo are the most likely winner for this year.