Sam Maguire 2013

Fr Tod Umptious

Syferus wrote: »

It's only the last two years. As late as September 2011 they were worthy of winning an AI and if they'd held their nerve Dublin wouldn't have found a way back form four down with only a few minutes left.

Their form since that final looks very much like a great team dying. They're still better than all but five or six teams in the country but the gap between them and the very elite - Dublin and Donegal as of right now - is as large as the gap between Kerry and, say, Down or Derry.

A huge amount needs to fall in place for Kerry to even reach the AISF this year, they'd have to either get a qualifier in the AIQF who aren't a Donegal/Tyrone or Dublin/Kildare (unless the losers of those ties meet each other in the qualifiers it'll mean Kerry have at least a 50% chance of meeting a qualifier fully capable of beating them) or, if they lose to Cork as seems very possible, they must hope someone like ourselves wins Connacht or another province and they can use their experience to bully that team in classic Kerry fashion.

Just looking at the spread right now it seems very much like Kerry are more likely to lose an AIQF than win it and even then I can't seem them advancing to a final. Even great teams tumble down eventually and I don't think any amount of cloak and dagger training sessions will change the fact that there's better and stronger teams and panels out there. Enough that Kerry doing the business seems a relatively remote possibility.

Kerry could well win an AI in a few years' time if Fitzmaurice does a good job developing younger players - if ever there was a county where tradition dictates competitiveness it's Kerry - but this year seems to be Fitzmaurice's gift to the old guard, giving them one last roll of the dice before a core of players ride off into the sunset with a king's ransom of medals.

Simply put I think a lot of people are blowing Kerry up to be something they're not, even when they acknowledge their flaws. There's a disconnect between the facts people offer up about the panel and the status that is afforded them.

The valid point that you make about 'people are blowing Kerry up to be something they're not' I agree with, but it's lost in your OTT anti-Kerry rhetoric.

Kerry have an easier path to a QF this year than last seeing as they will most likely meet Cork at home in a Munster final, but apart from that I can see nothing in the current Kerry team that would imply they are any better than last year.

Fr Tod Umptious

ColeTrain wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking Kildare. They've been unlucky at times over the last few years and to their credit, they're good to watch.
IMO, they won't join the real contenders until they can beat a top team in the quarters. A win over Dublin in Leinster won't change a lot of peoples perception, mine included.

Kildare are like soccer player Andy Reid.

The more Reid was left out by Trap the greater his value went up in some peoples minds.

Kildare are the same, the longer they fail to win (or reach any finals) the more some people think they are contenders.

Those annual Saturday night outings in the qualifiers, most of which are on TV, make Kildare look better than they are.

Gryire

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The valid point that you make about 'people are blowing Kerry up to be something they're not' I agree with, but it's lost in your OTT anti-Kerry rhetoric.

Kerry have an easier path to a QF this year than last seeing as they will most likely meet Cork at home in a Munster final, but apart from that I can see nothing in the current Kerry team that would imply they are any better than last year.

They don't need to be any better than last year to win the all Ireland. They have an easy route to the QF. With injuries to key players last year, they only lost to Donegal by 2 points. If they can minimize the injury list they should win the All Ireland. Form is temporary, class is permanent and Kerry have more class than the others.

klairondavis

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Kildare are like soccer player Andy Reid.

The more Reid was left out by Trap the greater his value went up in some peoples minds.

Kildare are the same, the longer they fail to win (or reach any finals) the more some people think they are contenders.

Those annual Saturday night outings in the qualifiers, most of which are on TV, make Kildare look better than they are.

How can anyone have us down as contenders is beyond me? We're 20/1 which is an accurate reflection of where we are at the moment.

BNMC

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Kildare are like soccer player Andy Reid.

The more Reid was left out by Trap the greater his value went up in some peoples minds.

Kildare are the same, the longer they fail to win (or reach any finals) the more some people think they are contenders.

Those annual Saturday night outings in the qualifiers, most of which are on TV, make Kildare look better than they are.

This makes no sense.

Fr Tod Umptious

Gryire wrote: »

They don't need to be any better than last year to win the all Ireland. They have an easy route to the QF. With injuries to key players last year, they only lost to Donegal by 2 points. If they can minimize the injury list they should win the All Ireland. Form is temporary, class is permanent and Kerry have more class than the others.

They don't need to be any better than last year, are you serious ?
Poor display v Tipp, well beaten by Cork, got out of jail v Westmeath, big 'emotional' win v rebuilding Tyrone at home, hammering of Clare, yes Clare, and eventual loss to Donegal, late goal putting a gloss on the performance.
So you reckon all of that is Championship winning stuff ?

Lets say they loose to Cork and face Tyrone/Donegal/Dublin/Kildare in the qualifier, that will not be easy

As for class being permanent and all that stuff, well I suppose you may as well resort to clichés if you have nothing else to contribute

Fr Tod Umptious

klairondavis wrote: »

How can anyone have us down as contenders is beyond me? We're 20/1 which is an accurate reflection of where we are at the moment.

This contributor

Similarly if Kildare could add the confidence of winning Leinster to their hunger, then they'd be contenders too

Gryire

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

They don't need to be any better than last year, are you serious ?
Poor display v Tipp, well beaten by Cork, got out of jail v Westmeath, big 'emotional' win v rebuilding Tyrone at home, hammering of Clare, yes Clare, and eventual loss to Donegal, late goal putting a gloss on the performance.
So you reckon all of that is Championship winning stuff ?

Lets say they loose to Cork and face Tyrone/Donegal/Dublin/Kildare in the qualifier, that will not be easy

As for class being permanent and all that stuff, well I suppose you may as well resort to clichés if you have nothing else to contribute

Professional job done by a professional bunch of players.

Fr Tod Umptious

Gryire wrote: »

Professional job done by a professional bunch of players.

Correct, but as I said about Mayo's 17pt win over Galway, it does not change my opinion about their championship prospects one way or another

Gryire

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Correct, but as I said about Mayo's 17pt win over Galway, it does not change my opinion about their championship prospects one way or another

The most likely provincial winners are Kerry, Mayo, Donegal and Dublin. The most likely back door qualifiers are Tyrone, Cork, Kildare and Armagh. Then the championship will begin.

Lemlin

Gryire wrote: »

The most likely provincial winners are Kerry, Mayo, Donegal and Dublin. The most likely back door qualifiers are Tyrone, Cork, Kildare and Armagh. Then the championship will begin.

I'd take Armagh out of that unless they greatly improve.

Amprodude

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

:rolleyes: You heard it here first people..36 All Irelands by bullying,

place for Kerry to reach an AISF this year"...beating Cork in Killarney (haven't been beaten there since 1995) and winning 1 game in Croker is suddenly "a huge amount falling into

You are not going to like this but with every match encounter the history books go out the window. An upset can always happen especially seeming there isnt too much between Cork and Kerry quality wise at the moment IMO.

Cork have 30 All Irelands in Hurling, that doesnt mean they have the right to win another All Ireland just because they have achieved 30 already. You need to be good enough, past successes wont make up for that, just ask any Cork hurling fans that.

Always_Running

Cork,Kerry,Donegal all looked good this weekend can they all keep it going in August?

Stoner

Always_Running wrote: »

Cork,Kerry,Donegal all looked good this weekend can they all keep it going in August?

I learned absolutely nothing new about Kerry today.

K-9

Lemlin wrote: »

I'd take Armagh out of that unless they greatly improve.

Although I think the criticism Grimley got by Brolly and others was OTT and they are better than was portrayed, I just can't see them getting to a Q/F, Derry would be my tip to get to a Q/F from outside the predictable 6/7 teams.

Fr Tod Umptious

Gryire wrote: »

The most likely provincial winners are Kerry, Mayo, Donegal and Dublin. The most likely back door qualifiers are Tyrone, Cork, Kildare and Armagh. Then the championship will begin.

Hard to predict the four that come out of the qualifiers, and the four you mention could all possibly be drawn against each other at some stage.

Poor_old_gill

I'd go with a ranking of:

1) Dublin
2) Donegal
3) Mayo
4) Kerry
5) Cork
6) Tyrone

Thats how I would view the state of play currently- obviously it will depend on who draws who in the quarters/semi finals but I think anyone of the top 4 there can win it with Dublin being my favourites.

Teams with an outside chance of going far, draw depending, would be Derry/Westmeath/Louth.

robbiezero

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

I'd go with a ranking of:

1) Dublin
2) Donegal
3) Mayo
4) Kerry
5) Cork
6) Tyrone

Thats how I would view the state of play currently- obviously it will depend on who draws who in the quarters/semi finals but I think anyone of the top 4 there can win it with Dublin being my favourites.

Teams with an outside chance of going far, draw depending, would be Derry/Westmeath/Louth.

I would be switching Donegal and Dublin in that ranking. There is nothing yet to indicate Dublin would beat this Donegal team.
Kerry and Cork probably just about in the right order.

Gryire

robbiezero wrote: »

I would be switching Donegal and Dublin in that ranking. There is nothing yet to indicate Dublin would beat this Donegal team.
Kerry and Cork probably just about in the right order.

Why not have a mini league to see who's predictions do best.

5 points for each quarter finalist
10 points for each semi finalist
15 for beaten finalist
25 for All Ireland Winner

Any takers!

Poor_old_gill

robbiezero wrote: »

I would be switching Donegal and Dublin in that ranking. There is nothing yet to indicate Dublin would beat this Donegal team.
Kerry and Cork probably just about in the right order.

But on the other hand this Donegal team havent beaten Dublin either.
I think Dublin looked good during the league and would rank them as having enough pace and power in their team to beat Donegal, probably the only team with enough to do so.

That doesnt mean that Dublin will win the AI but, in my opinion, they are slight favourites.

robbiezero

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

But on the other hand this Donegal team havent beaten Dublin either.
I think Dublin looked good during the league and would rank them as having enough pace and power in their team to beat Donegal, probably the only team with enough to do so.

That doesnt mean that Dublin will win the AI but, in my opinion, they are slight favourites.

I wouldn't read much in the league form. Tyrone were excellent in the league, within a score of winning it without their best forward while Donegal were relegated, and yet today Donegal fairly comfortably beat them.

But Dublin v Donegal would be some cracker alright, and they could well be the team to topple Donegal.

manofwisdom

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

I'd go with a ranking of:

1) Dublin
2) Donegal
3) Mayo
4) Kerry
5) Cork
6) Tyrone

Thats how I would view the state of play currently- obviously it will depend on who draws who in the quarters/semi finals but I think anyone of the top 4 there can win it with Dublin being my favourites.

Teams with an outside chance of going far, draw depending, would be Derry/Westmeath/Louth.

I'd go with top four of

1) Donegal
2) Dublin
3) Cork
4) Kerry


Mayo have lost their best scoring forward not sure how that will effect them. Tyrone will have to improve on todays display and Kildare are probably around the same level as those two.

shrewdness

If I was to pick a surprise quarter-finalist right now outside of the top 6/7 I'd go for Monaghan. Looked decent in the league(only Div. 3 I know), and I fancy them to make an Ulster final with Antrim up in 2 weeks, and if they win that a semi-final against Cavan/Fermanagh. no disrespect to those teams but it is as good a draw as you will get in Ulster.

Of course each of those teams will be thinking the same and rightly so, but I make Monaghan favourites to emerge from that side. I can't see any of those teams winning the final though(against Donegal I presume), but they'd then be a qualifier away from a quarter-final, a bit of luck in the draw and you never know.

K-9

robbiezero wrote: »

I wouldn't read much in the league form. Tyrone were excellent in the league, within a score of winning it without their best forward while Donegal were relegated, and yet today Donegal fairly comfortably beat them.

But Dublin v Donegal would be some cracker alright, and they could well be the team to topple Donegal.

Agree on the league, Donegal won a league by just basically being the fittest team about, irrelevant when it came to the championship. It really is just a way of finding new players or try new things, and if you get to a final, all well and good.

Dublin vs. Donegal would be fascinating, when you think how close Donegal came to beating them, for me McFadden today would have buried that goal chance at the start of the second half 2 years ago, and I don't think Dublin would have come back. Probably for the best in the long run!

Donegal showed against Cork they can go toe to toe when they want to, and today, you want a war of attrition? Bring it on. It would match the Tyrone vs. Armagh/Kerry epics, but it's far too early to say it.

This forum had many the discussion about inevitable match ups that never happened! Mayo scuppered one or 2 of them and they might do it again this year.

Poor_old_gill

robbiezero wrote: »

I wouldn't read much in the league form. Tyrone were excellent in the league, within a score of winning it without their best forward while Donegal were relegated, and yet today Donegal fairly comfortably beat them.

But Dublin v Donegal would be some cracker alright, and they could well be the team to topple Donegal.

Fair enough about the league but usually the winners go on to have a good championship.
Also Dublin have been there or there abouts for a few years and as I said- the last time they met- Dublin won.
But as I said- you just dont know how it will pan out as the draw could throw all predictions into chaos!

Stoner

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

Fair enough about the league but usually the winners go on to have a good championship.
Also Dublin have been there or there abouts for a few years and as I said- the last time they met- Dublin won.
But as I said- you just dont know how it will pan out as the draw could throw all predictions into chaos!

this is like a new Dublin team for me, I expect them to learn more than win this year, I could see them loosing to Mayo or Donegal and spending the winter and league looking for some big guys for the middle of the park. this is not the Dublin teams from 2011 IMHO its a lot lighter.

K-9

68Murph68 wrote: »

Not really sure I buy the notion of Kerry having a very thin panel - between the league and McGrath cup Kerry have used 40 players so far this season. [Compare this to Donegal who are far more vulnerable to injuries - in Donegal's case even a few injuries and not even to their top players and it could pretty much end their season]

I'll compare it, Donegal put out 50 players between the league and McKenna Cup.

corny

K-9 wrote: »

Dublin vs. Donegal would be fascinating, when you think how close Donegal came to beating them, for me McFadden today would have buried that goal chance at the start of the second half 2 years ago, and I don't think Dublin would have come back. Probably for the best in the long run!

Donegal showed against Cork they can go toe to toe when they want to, and today, you want a war of attrition? Bring it on. It would match the Tyrone vs. Armagh/Kerry epics, but it's far too early to say it.

This forum had many the discussion about inevitable match ups that never happened! Mayo scuppered one or 2 of them and they might do it again this year.

If Gilroy was still in charge i'd relish another clash with Donegal. We'd beat them again if you ask me.

The way Dublin are playing now i wouldn't be so confident. If they attack in the numbers they have in the league they'll play into Donegals hands and allow them to dictate the course of the game. They always win when that happens.

Of course there's lots of football to be played between then and now.

shiibata

Stoner wrote: »

this is like a new Dublin team for me, I expect them to learn more than win this year, I could see them loosing to Mayo or Donegal and spending the winter and league looking for some big guys for the middle of the park. this is not the Dublin teams from 2011 IMHO its a lot lighter.

Your a good omen for Mayo...IF spoils many a story but if the 3 above mentioned teams, should go on and win their respective provincials, Donegal and Mayo in semi, and Mayo recently always beat current AI champs...so its Mayo beat Dublin in the final

Stoner

shiibata wrote: »

Your a good omen for Mayo...IF spoils many a story but if the 3 above mentioned teams, should go on and win their respective provincials, Donegal and Mayo in semi, and Mayo recently always beat current AI champs...so its Mayo beat Dublin in the final

I'd take that right now:)