Grandouet

UrbanSea

We'll see, I think Ruby and AP would run last year's race differently if they could looking back. That was Binocular's second start after a wind-op, that could see him as being like a new horse

Suarez20

is there any bookies offering on a market for how far hurricane fly will win?? i'm not joking either, think he could win by 3/4 lengths

jimjamcos

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

We'll see, I think Ruby and AP would run last year's race differently if they could looking back. That was Binocular's second start after a wind-op, that could see him as being like a new horse

Ruby's on record as saying the horse just had nothing when he asked him last year. Some believe that this was because of some underlying problem, others (me included) believe he simply struggled to keep up with a strong pace he's not used too which blunted his turn of foot. Most people used the whole Ruby and MCoy watching each other thing as an excuse for Hurricane Fly last year - myself included!

jimjamcos

Suarez20 wrote: »

is there any bookies offering on a market for how far hurricane fly will win?? i'm not joking either, think he could win by 3/4 lengths

If soft, quite possibly. Better ground, not a hope IMO. You'll have to wait till day for that market I'd say.

jimjamcos

premierstone wrote: »

Yes I do believe he's Champion was every bit as good as last years, infact I have little doubt and as I have pointed out before Timeform is in agreement, I know that is only an opinion aswell but there is merit to it.

How can you simply say Irish form is irrelevant, thats madness, I can only assume therefore you will only be backing English horses in all hte novice races and the Bumper?? Irish form needs to be assesed in a different light yes, but irrelevant, no.

Binocular has not always improved for Cheltenham, he was beaten by Captain Cee Bee in a Supreme when favourite and beaten by Punjabi when a shorter price than Hurricane Fly is now??

It is my opinion he has much more than a lenght to find, as Hurricane Fly did not give he's true running iin that race, also looking at the 10 horses declared I cannot see where the strong pace we had last year is going to come from, added to this the latest forecast in Cheltenham is leaning very much towards soft ground on the Tuesday, I think Huricane Fly has in excess of half a dozen lenghts over Binocular.

Of course this is all opinion and I know Im like a broken record at this stage but I strongly strongly believe Tuesday 12th March 2013 will be redemption day for the great one and If I am wrong I will be the first to put my hands up!

This is an old debate but anyway...

What has any horse in 2011 CH bar HF achieved over 2m?

Irish form is irrelevant to HF in my opinion - know it's a cliche but he's done absolutely nothing different this year to make us think he's better than English horses bar beating a clearly unfit, gently-raced Binocular. I was not claiming that all Irish form was irrelevant (sorry if it came across that way) just HF's. For what it's worth, I try to find value in backing Irish who will improve for better ground and Cheltenham and if can't find it I'll back English. I no better ground's no certainty this time round.

I wouldn't hold a Supreme defeat against any horse. Cavalry charge lottery made for upsets. Binocular is definitely better for a good ground Cheltenham.

You're right about the lack of pace in race and HF's improvement for soft ground. I'll not be going in big against him if the ground's soft.

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

This is an old debate but anyway...

What has any horse in 2011 CH bar HF achieved over 2m?

tbf have any of them ran 2m over hurdles since? Overturn was second last year after been nearly 20l behind Hurricane 12 months previously, I appreciate the tactic were completely different but it does add substantial creedance to the theory that Hurricane Fly was not 100% last year, and like I have suspected all along the ground was considerablybetter last year and Claise just did he usual.

Peddlers Cross has never ran over 2m since, Oscar Whiskey the same although did win the Aintree Hurdle over 4f further, Memorah went chasing and Thousand Stars while no superstar is a decent yardstick who has very good course form and won 3 Grade ones since.

Huntley

premierstone wrote: »

I have suspected all along the ground was considerablybetter last year and Claise just did he usual.

Suspected? Sure didn't you claim that you walked the track both years and were able to decipher the minimal difference in the going?

jimjamcos

premierstone wrote: »

tbf have any of them ran 2m over hurdles since? Overturn was second last year after been nearly 20l behind Hurricane 12 months previously, I appreciate the tactic were completely different but it does add substantial creedance to the theory that Hurricane Fly was not 100% last year, and like I have suspected all along the ground was considerablybetter last year and Claise just did he usual.

Peddlers Cross has never ran over 2m since, Oscar Whiskey the same although did win the Aintree Hurdle over 4f further, Memorah went chasing and Thousand Stars while no superstar is a decent yardstick who has very good course form and won 3 Grade ones since.

These are just my opinions:

Overturn cut his own throat as a pace-maker for Peddlers. They hadn't realised the real worth of him IMO!

McCain would of kept Peddlers to hurdles if he thought he was a truly top hurdler. Even now he'd be in CH if he was that good over the distance.

Oscar Whisky, similarly, while a class horse is better over further. He'd have ran in last years and this years CH if he was good enough. Henderson repeatedly tells those (like Matt Chapman) who think he should be in CH, that he doesn't have the real pace for it. So that puts any of Henderson's CH horses ahead of him in terms of quality for the CH.

Thousand Stars, again, is a stayer and while a brilliantly gutsy horse the best he does over 2m is a gallant 2nd to HF against average 2m hurdlers such as Unaccompanied. He's been regularly beaten by horses such as CaptainCeeBee and On His Own over 2m trip. Not his distance.

Menorah - staying chaser.

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

Suspected? Sure didn't you claim that you walked the track both years and were able to decipher the minimal difference in the going?

Yes I did, but like everything I post here it was my opinion.

Who said it was minimal?

Do you trust Simon Claisse's ground descriptions??

Huntley

premierstone wrote: »

Yes I did, but like everything I post here it was my opinion.

Who said it was minimal?

Do you trust Simon Claisse's ground descriptions??

It would have been minimal, there wouldn't have been any major difference and I'm sure the times support that.

It was just intriguing that most jockeys wouldn't have been able to tell the difference until riding on it. Yet somebody who has no relevance/basis/experience of the industry would be able to do so. Either you possess an inane ability to do something that people involved in the industry for years couldn't do, or you are lying.

premierstone

jimjamcos wrote: »

These are just my opinions:

Overturn cut his own throat as a pace-maker for Peddlers. They hadn't realised the real worth of him IMO!

McCain would of kept Peddlers to hurdles if he thought he was a truly top hurdler. Even now he'd be in CH if he was that good over the distance.

Oscar Whisky, similarly, while a class horse is better over further. He'd have ran in last years and this years CH if he was good enough. Henderson repeatedly tells those (like Matt Chapman) who think he should be in CH, that he doesn't have the real pace for it. So that puts any of Henderson's CH horses ahead of him in terms of quality for the CH.

Thousand Stars, again, is a stayer and while a brilliantly gutsy horse the best he does over 2m is a gallant 2nd to HF against average 2m hurdlers such as Unaccompanied. He's been regularly beaten by horses such as CaptainCeeBee and On His Own over 2m trip. Not his distance.

Menorah - staying chaser.

Overturn - Agreed, but it was quite a turnaround all the same.

Peddlers Cross - that makes little sense, why did Simonsig go chasing then, or Overturn for that matter??

Oscar Whisky - would have won last years champion IMO as the race turned into a real stamina test, best over 2m 4f though I agree.

Thousand Stars is more than a stayer imo and a very very good yardstick, has won three grade ones since aswell despite the fact he is nearly always the second string.

Menorah was the reigning Supreme champion and had won the Greatwood and the International that season aswell.

premierstone

Huntley wrote: »

It would have been minimal, there wouldn't have been any major difference and I'm sure the times support that.

It was just intriguing that most jockeys wouldn't have been able to tell the difference until riding on it. Yet somebody who has no relevance/basis/experience of the industry would be able to do so. Either you possess an inane ability to do something that people involved in the industry for years couldn't do, or you are lying.

have you spoken to ''most jockeys'' the three I have spoken to since all support what I have said here.

How do you know I have no relevance/basis/experience of the industry

One of my colleagues had a penetrometer which are quite accurate, and the difference in the going was more than minimal, whether you believe me or not is rellay of little interest to me.

jimjamcos

premierstone wrote: »

Overturn - Agreed, but it was quite a turnaround all the same.

Peddlers Cross - that makes little sense, why did Simonsig go chasing then, or Overturn for that matter??

Oscar Whisky - would have won last years champion IMO as the race turned into a real stamina test, best over 2m 4f though I agree.

Thousand Stars is more than a stayer imo and a very very good yardstick, has won three grade ones since aswell despite the fact he is nearly always the second string.

Menorah was the reigning Supreme champion and had won the Greatwood and the International that season aswell.

Simonsig was never a close 2nd in a CH though and Overturn while running bravely last year was clearly never going to win a CH. People like yourself seem to think that Peddlers was a great CH horse because he was so close to HF...why did he not continue over hurdles and take on HF last year if he was that good? His novice win a Cheltenham was in Neptune when he beat out and out stayers in Reve De Sivola and Rite of Passage.

Oscar Whisky wouldn't have coped with pace of last years race.

What distance did Thousand Stars win his 3 grade 1's over? Not CH distance I think you'll find. For what it's worth, I hate the word "yardstick"...it's simply a term used to describe a horse repeatedly beaten in your case.


Menorah lacks the pace of a truly run CH horse.

Oscars Well.

Suarez20 wrote: »

is there any bookies offering on a market for how far hurricane fly will win?? i'm not joking either, think he could win by 3/4 lengths

SkyBet are the only ones so far. 7/1 to win by over 5 lengths.

Huntley

premierstone wrote: »

How do you know I have no relevance/basis/experience of the industry

It is blatantly obvious from your posts. Maybe you cut the grass at Thurles or Clonmel the odd time but that isn't what I am getting at.

premierstone wrote: »

One of my colleagues had a penetrometer which are quite accurate, and the difference in the going was more than minimal, whether you believe me or not is rellay of little interest to me.

Are you genuinely trying to suggest that someone with you was lugging around a penetrometer? You don't need to refer to your average Cheltenham racegoer as a colleague either.

It is also strange that you state you used a penetrometer to decipher the difference in the ground, yet it is only your opinion. Surely using a globally acclaimed device to obtain soil results could be considered as factual? I'm sure you can appreciate how perplex your comments are in light of this information.

My view may be of no interest to you. However,it is of interest to others acknowledging your comments if you are supplying information to people when there is no evidence to support it. All relevant for peoples analysis aswell of course.

Harry Angstrom

jimjamcos wrote: »

These are just my opinions:

Overturn cut his own throat as a pace-maker for Peddlers. They hadn't realised the real worth of him IMO!

McCain would of kept Peddlers to hurdles if he thought he was a truly top hurdler. Even now he'd be in CH if he was that good over the distance.

Oscar Whisky, similarly, while a class horse is better over further. He'd have ran in last years and this years CH if he was good enough. Henderson repeatedly tells those (like Matt Chapman) who think he should be in CH, that he doesn't have the real pace for it. So that puts any of Henderson's CH horses ahead of him in terms of quality for the CH.

Thousand Stars, again, is a stayer and while a brilliantly gutsy horse the best he does over 2m is a gallant 2nd to HF against average 2m hurdlers such as Unaccompanied. He's been regularly beaten by horses such as CaptainCeeBee and On His Own over 2m trip. Not his distance.

Menorah - staying chaser.

Theatreworld chased home Istrabraq in two Champion Hurdles but I didn't hear too many people crabbing Istabraq's Champion Hurdle form over that.

I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly is a great price for next Tuesday.

jimjamcos

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Theatreworld chased home Istrabraq in two Champion Hurdles but I didn't hear too many people crabbing Istabraq's Champion Hurdle form over that.

I think 2/1 Hurricane Fly is a great price for next Tuesday.

All opinions, tis what makes it great! Can't wait till Tuesday now! I'd be more than happy if Hurricane Fly won in style, love the horse, but my pocket wont! :P

SRFC

Is this the staying chaser menorah being rubished who won a supreme novice hurdle over 2mile?

Theres no point in going round and round here lads this build up is killing me,us Hurricane fly supporters are backing him on his better prep than last season and taking a gamble it was a blip and the rest are of the opinion he will be stuffed again like last year but my best advice to them is back your fancys with pp because you'll be getting money back :pac:

Harry Angstrom

SRFC wrote: »

Is this the staying chaser menorah being rubished who won a supreme novice hurdle over 2mile?

Theres no point in going round and round here lads this build up is killing me,us Hurricane fly supporters are backing him on his better prep than last season and taking a gamble it was a blip and the rest are of the opinion he will be stuffed again like last year but my best advice to them is back your fancys with pp because you'll be getting money back :pac:

If the Hurricane Fly from 2 years ago turns up, he'll have them for breakfast.

SRFC

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

If the Hurricane Fly from 2 years ago turns up, he'll have them for breakfast.

Thats the big if I havent backed him yet im hoping for 5/2 at least somewhere, wonder will someone try and get it before next week.

Gringo180

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

If the Hurricane Fly from 2 years ago turns up, he'll have them for breakfast.

His time suggests he ran a personal best around Cheltenham last year and was easily put to bed by Rock on Ruby, who won very cosily if you ask me.

Harry Angstrom

Gringo180 wrote: »

His time suggests he ran a personal best around Cheltenham last year and was easily put to bed by Rock on Ruby, who won very cosily if you ask me.

I can't believe Rock On Ruby is a better horse than Hurricane Fly. Times can be deceptive, a lot depends on ground conditions and the pace of a race. The fact that Overturn finished ahead of Hurricane Fly last year leads me to think that Hurricane didn't run his race at all. Overturn is a very tough and consistent horse but he's not Champion Hurdle class.

Gringo180

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I can't believe Rock On Ruby is a better horse than Hurricane Fly. Times can be deceptive, a lot depends on ground conditions and the pace of a race. The fact that Overturn finished ahead of Hurricane Fly last year leads me to think that Hurricane didn't run his race at all. Overturn is a very tough and consistent horse but he's not Champion Hurdle class.

Overturn was in the form of his life before last years champion racking up a win and a place in a grade 1 and the same in grade 2 company, compare that to the year when he was beat by Hurricane Fly his race before the Champion Hurdle he was last of 5 and beaten a distance by Mille Chief & Celestial Halo. Overturn just ran the race of his life last year and found 1 too good, you honestly don't think he ran to his best form when he was beaten 17 lengths by Hurricane Fly in 2011 do you?

Harry Angstrom

Gringo180 wrote: »

you honestly don't think he ran to his best form when he was beaten 17 lengths by Hurricane Fly in 2011 do you?

Of course not, but do you honestly believe that, pound for pound, Overturn is a better horse than Hurricane Fly??
Hurricane Fly at his best would beat Overturn at his best. I have no doubt of that.

SRFC

Bromley was hinting simonsig worked all over grandouet in their gallop saying he needed it a lot more than henderson thought.

Gringo180

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Of course not, but do you honestly believe that, pound for pound, Overturn is a better horse than Hurricane Fly??
Hurricane Fly at his best would beat Overturn at his best. I have no doubt of that.

But for the 2 of them to be at there best they need the races to be run in totally different circumstances, slow pace would suit HF and fast pace for Overturn. Visually HF looks a superstar in the races on bottomless ground over here where there basically mile races as the first half of the race there crawling, but I think a true run race and he just isnt all that great as his turn of foot is blunted from the fast pace.

Harry Angstrom

Gringo180 wrote: »

But for the 2 of them to be at there best they need the races to be run in totally different circumstances, slow pace would suit HF and fast pace for Overturn. Visually HF looks a superstar in the races on bottomless ground over here where there basically mile races as the first half of the race there crawling, but I think a true run race and he just isnt all that great as his turn of foot is blunted from the fast pace.

We'll see next Tuesday, but considering the Champion Hurdle field has cut up a bit, I wouldn't be so sure that there'll be a great pace set for this year's CH.

kiers47

Glad to see another thread descending to chaos. There has been maybe 1 mention of grandouet in the last 2 pages.

Harry Angstrom

kiers47 wrote: »

Glad to see another thread descending to chaos. There has been maybe 1 mention of grandouet in the last 2 pages.

Tis the nature of the beast

Colonel Sanders

With Grandouet's interrupted preparation I'll forgive him whatever happens in the champion

I'd love to see him come over to Punchestown to take on HF. Seeing as he came over as a juvenile hurdler & there's no reason I can see him being asked to go 2.5m at Aintree it may well happen