Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Calibos

delw wrote: »

Cue Calibos post with the giant finger

By Your Command!

Iancar29

All this winter excitement thoughts today has made me get back out my book on that Big Freeze of 1947.

Found an interesting part at the start just now .


I'll happily type out a section of it for yous all....

January 1947

The month entered timidly. The first twelve days were generally calm, with unseasonably mild temperatures . 16 year old Joe Kirwan , a bike messenger from the Coombe, hoped the good weather would last. So did Eddie McGrane , a year older, as he and his pals in AN Oige liked winter hiking the wicklow mountains.
Around mid-month , weather developments far from Ireland conspired to end their good luk. A "persistent ainti-cyclone" centred over northern Russia began shifting towards Scandinavia . At the same time a " very deep depression " about 600 miles to the wes of Ireland, along with an associated vigorous trough" began moving eastwards, forming an atmospheric configuration that could potentially trigger violent weather , with fierce winds and extremely cold temperatures. Most Irish people , knowing little about " anti - cyclones and troughs , paid little heed to such information. Seán Lemass , Minister for Industry and commerce, understood the implications all too well. AN onset of frigid , stormy winter weather could severely stain the country's limited fuel and food supplies. On 1 January the Irish press called the country's supplies position .. as bad as it was in the worst war years" explaining that , while the scarcity of food will be acute during the coming months, the fuel shortage presents the graver problem.
Four days later Lemass began the rationing of flour and bread , the result of a poor home crop and global wheat shortages.

ON 19 january a cold easterly regime set in , as the pressure distribution was dominated by anticyclones over both Scandinavia and Greenland at times forming a continuous belt , while depressions followed tracks south of Ireland. The next day a cold north-easterly airflow invaded Ireland and Britain , bringing night frosts and intermittent snowfalls.

It was on the 24th however that the "severe cold spell" began , as the incursion of arctic air brought temps down to -2 to -6 º C . People bundled up , put a dew extra lumps of coal or sods of turf on the fire and waited for the cold snap to end.

There was a strange occurrence in Dublin on the morning of SUnday the 26th , at exactly 10.27 am . People in their homes and at mass felt a queer , quivering sensation. Children asked puzzled parents what it was. According to the seismograph at the Jesuit house of Rathfarnham Castle outside Dublin was a "fairly large earthquake" which lasted sporadically until about noon. Shortly thereafter at 1.30pm Dublin experienced its first real snowfall of the winter. The irish Times welcomed it poetically as a " portion of heaven's swansdown white " . Wasnt the snow wonderful?! " everyone exulted.

On the night of Tuesday the 28th " winter tightened its grip " as the Evening Herald aptly put it. Meteorologists attributed it to the formation of the " Scandinavian antic-cyclone . . regarded as a kind of western extension or outpost of the Siberian system " . As temperatures fell to -8 º C Dubliners saw ice-floes the " size of hearth rugs" floating down the Liffey and ships in the port penanted with huge icicles .

NIALL D

Iancar29 wrote: »

All this winter excitement thoughts today has made me get back out my book on that Big Freeze of 1947.

Found an interesting part at the start just now .


I'll happily type out a section of it for yous all....

keep writing keep writing ha !!!

rickdangerouss

Winter has hit Iceland quickly this year, 140kph blizzard has hit the north hard.

Most of Northern Iceland is without power. another storm is due next week.

This is unusual weather and I am reading the lost of sea ice has raised the moisture level in the air in the north
making the storm last longer and making it stronger. The Viagra of weather me thinks!! lol



http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2012/09/10/leitudu_fjar_med_stongum/

Translate with Giggle translator, I.E. Google translator

maquiladora

rickdangerouss wrote: »

Most of Northern Iceland is without power. another storm is due next week

That is actually this week and it will be ex-Tropical Storm Leslie.

srmambo

These storms in Iceland could be sign for the better for Ireland's cold weather perhaps. Perhaps the Spanish Plume's little brother carrying snow with some nice thunder?

eskimocat

Heading to Iceland in Nov, and can't wait!!!! YIPEEE and are you seriously telling me that there is snow there now???? and storms???? and thunder/lightning????? .......eskimocat....backflips.........if its like that now what's it going to be like in November.... ( :rolleyes: blue skies and green grass prob... sigh)

Mr Benevolent

Well, the first 0C 850hPa layer has hit. +8C shouldn't feel cold but it does somehow.

Iancar29

SNOW!!!!! http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/ , im trying to find out when the earliest snowfall in the highlands occurred! , probably August hahaha

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Is it bad that Im chacking the CFS daily for any glimmer of hope :pac:

mcriot29

t|nt|n wrote: »

Is it bad that Im chacking the CFS daily for any glimmer of hope :pac:

Piers is calling this the year with no summer, ring any bells , anyways iv seen his 12 month ahead forecast and it looks like a very cold winter lets hope it correct east coast should see some big snow storms

Not

Confab wrote: »

Well, the first 0C 850hPa layer has hit. +8C shouldn't feel cold but it does somehow.

8.5C and horizontal driving rain here in south Meath atm:(

Iancar29

Not wrote: »

8.5C and horizontal driving rain here in south Meath atm:(

And it felt AMAZINGLY cold here after that shower came here!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

We need some charts with blue on them haha

Mr Benevolent

mcriot29 wrote: »

lets hope it correct east coast should see some big snow storms

And pigs wear pyjamas while flying in winter.

Lenny5

Iancar29 wrote: »

I do warn you .... uncontrollable memories may flood back causing a near emotional breakdown :rolleyes:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056102350

Reading back through that I felt the need to put a jumper on!

mrweatherman

just had a look over what ken ring had predicted for the irish summer back in april and he got it right but has any one seen if he has a winter prediction yet as may give better insight!!!!

eskimocat

There was an unmerciful hail shower in the middle of the night in Dromahair... it woke me up which is very unusual...normally sleep through and miss everything... got up and looked out and it was battering down!! oh what excitement! took me ages to get back to sleep...:D

ninebeanrows

Looks like we may be gearing up for some periods of mid-atlantic blocking during late September, may be a trend as we progress through to mid Autumn.

Of course just FI GFS guessing.

But the 500hpa charts are beginning to turn ever greener and bluer!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like we may be gearing up for some periods of mid-atlantic blocking during late September, may be a trend as we progress through to mid Autumn.

Of course just FI GFS guessing.

But the 500hpa charts are beginning to turn ever greener and bluer!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Id prefer that to occur from Late november onwards please!!! ha

We all hate premature... blocking!!! :rolleyes: :pac:

Governer

Mcriot29. When does piers state it to get cold in Ireland?

Tindie

t|nt|n wrote: »

We need some charts with blue on them haha

I saw this before I went to bed last night and it gave me nice snowy dream lol

Sponge Bob

Lovely warm day today in Galway.

Tindie

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Lovely warm day today in Galway.

it was nice early, sunny and little chilly with breeze, without it was warm since after 3pm, Now it really chilly and dull and pouring down rain outside for last 45 min,

bb1234567

Cant wait for winter.But I am not, not NOT getting my hopes up, last winter was too much for me, I cant take that again:pac: Twas just so warm...So I'm just gonna take it that itll be a usual average winter and then if does snow I'll be very happily surprised:)

Calibos

bb1234567 wrote: »

Cant wait for winter.But I am not, not NOT getting my hopes up, last winter was too much for me, I cant take that again:pac: Twas just so warm...So I'm just gonna take it that itll be a usual average winter and then if does snow I'll be very happily surprised:)

I could have handled last year without a nervous breakdown had there not been a carrot on a string dangling right in front of us......literally

What I mean is that had the long range forecasts not hinted at anything and had the European mainland just got its normal Winter, I could have simply shrugged my shoulders and said, "Ah Well, it was too much to hope for a hatrick" and tbh happily resigned myself to a return to the normal Irish Dull mild wet Winter pattern.

The problem was that some forecasts got it right and Europe and a good portion of the UK did indeed get the hatrick and while the rest of Europe froze in a Winter Wonderland for the third year in a row we ended up a mere 100 miles West of it. The Contrast was extreme between the Mildest Winter in decades on one side of the line and one of the Coldest Winters on record on the other side of the line.

It was so close you could almost touch it. It was so close it wouldn't have taken much for it to spread over us. It was so close it was plausible that maybe next week it would happen and then maybe the week after that or the week after that.

It kept us on tenderhooks for the whole Winter but ultimately we ended up disappointed.

It wasn't that we were back to a normal Irish Winter last year it was that we were so close to not being. Thats what wound me up about last year so much.

Deep Easterly

Calibos wrote: »

Thats what wound me up about last year so much.

I think we should make a pact this winter not to post up what really are useless long range winter forecasts from questionable sources, because I really believe that these helped to hype up a lot of people a lot last winter. It almost felt like every second post on here last winter was either posting up or referring to some UK sourced long-range, all of which proved to be useless and, to be frank, a total waste of time and space. I also recall someone saying last winter on here that these forecasts always play on the desires of those looking for snow. A good point!

Mr Benevolent

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I also recall someone saying last winter on here that these forecasts always play on the desires of those looking for snow. A good point!

MT Cranium and others did exactly that. I really hate well-meaning bias. And frankly, long range forecasts (1 month +) are worse than useless.

Calibos

While I don't disagree with the bias-casting or long range comments in principle, are we still missing the point. Biased or not, those forecasts through the Stopped Clock factor or whatever actually did turn out to be correct. There was another big freeze and dumping of snow. No one could have anticipated that the boundary line would be 100 miles east over mid Wales instead of 100 miles west of Dublin (just to the east of Cork ) Is calling those forecasts wrong not the same thing as the Lad who slags Met Eireann for getting the Torrential Rain forecast wrong because he only had drizzle in his small corner of the country. We rightly castigate him for expecting a geographical micro-forecast. ie. in the example MET were right about the torrential rain over most of the country and couldn't be expected to know exactly where the front would drop the most rain etc etc

maquiladora

I don't think there is any harm in long range winter forecasts as long as people know its just a bit of fun and speculation from weather fans.

The ones I have problem with are the chancers that charge "members" for exclusive premium forecasts.

Just remember, nobody ever started a winter weather blogspot website to tell everyone about a mild, wet winter.