Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Redsunset

The fact is, we were basically the only country in Europe to miss out on the extreme cold wave. Yes so close but no cigar. It could so easily have been very different.



There's no harm in discussing our chances of another cold shot. People can and do sometimes get carried away and have only themselves to blame for any feelings of bitterness when the charts don't materialise to a whiteout in their own back yard.

I agree that there is a lot of spoofers out there and building up ones hope because of someone else's stab in the dark is almost always doomed to be disappointed and wondering where it all went wrong.

The next decade of winters can just as easily be green. Reality check.

What we have experienced of late is not the norm for a temperate climate.

Que Sera Sera..............

Sponge Bob

The only close call with cold last winter was for 1 week in early Feb and yes it was awfully close and model runs pushed it over and back east again.

We had suffered from three months of quackery like vogan by then though...
could the mods get vogan added to the boards swear word filter in time for this winter! ?

Mr Benevolent

Actually, now that I think about it, snow this year would be a real pain in the arse for me. For the last two years of snow I was unemployed and living at home so I could enjoy it, but now I'm working and driving, I'll be stuck in traffic until next March if it snows heavily.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Confab wrote: »

Actually, now that I think about it, snow this year would be a real pain in the arse for me. For the last two years of snow I was unemployed and living at home so I could enjoy it, but now I'm working and driving, I'll be stuck in traffic until next March if it snows heavily.

Unless your route to work follows Calibos' big finger ! :pac:

Calibos

Just to clarify my point because basically some of the lads are intimating I shouldn't have been disappointed because I shouldn't have trusted the likes of Snake Oil Vogans long range forecasts.

I didn't trust them. I wouldn't have been overly disappointed with last Winter had they been wrong and if Europe and the Uk had a mild or normal Winter instead.

The disappointment came from the hatrick being do close yet so far.
Sponge bob is being overly pedantic in his interpretation of the term close call. It was a close call geographically though not necessarily in terms of the models ever hinting the mild cold boundary would shift 100 miles westward.

maquiladora

UK Met Office winter temps probability.



5% probability of well above normal temps.
60% probability of below normal temps.
40-55% probability of well below normal temps.

I'll take them odds! ;p

This will be interesting to look back on later if nothing else.

Sponge Bob

i remember feb well. them fruz uppers were on and off and on.....and finally off

Su Campu

The Russian forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec shows a chance of Greenland blocking, but the majority of the Arctic colder than normal.

MiNdGaM3

Su Campu wrote: »

The Russian forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec shows a chance of Greenland blocking, but the majority of the Arctic colder than normal.

Do you know what baseline temperature they use?
Seems to be going for a complete reversal of what we've seen in first 10 days of this month over the Arctic.



And the opposite of what we've seen over the last 5 years for October to December in the Arctic...


I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it will be wrong!

tylercollins

And so the hope building begins!! Those charts just made smile! lol

Iancar29

First frost of the winter next week ?




Something to have a cheeky laugh about.. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055948304 ... KIPPURE wherever you are... you were SPOT ON!!

Su Campu

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

Do you know what baseline temperature they use?
Seems to be going for a complete reversal of what we've seen in first 10 days of this month over the Arctic.

And the opposite of what we've seen over the last 5 years for October to December in the Arctic...

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it will be wrong!

It's taken from this page
http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/season

with a model description here
http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/slav

It seems to be based on the 61-90 norms.

gothwalk

Iancar29 wrote: »

First frost of the winter next week ?

If I am proven right, and there's a frost in September this year, I shall declare triumph, and use my new-found powers of weather control to -

Whaddya mean, it doesn't work like that?

More seriously, I do reckon there could be frosts before the end of the month; there's been enough high pressure around, and the nights have already been fairly cool. Any period of 3-4 clear nights in a row could bring on a touch of the cold stuff. It would be only a touch, though.

highdef

Well I got a low air temp of 4.9 last night which is not all that far from ground frost territory. So I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in Ireland sees a frost in the next week or so

Deep Easterly

Calibos wrote: »

No one could have anticipated that the boundary line would be 100 miles east over mid Wales instead of 100 miles west of Dublin (just to the east of Cork ) Is calling those forecasts wrong not the same thing as the Lad who slags Met Eireann for getting the Torrential Rain forecast wrong because he only had drizzle in his small corner of the country. We rightly castigate him for expecting a geographical micro-forecast. ie. in the example MET were right about the torrential rain over most of the country and couldn't be expected to know exactly where the front would drop the most rain etc etc

Not sure it is the same thing at all. Fair enough about the microforecasting etc but the 'forecasters' I am talking about have no interest in such. They are more interested in giving vague forecasts that serve no purpose but to hype enthusiastic folk up and to give themselves a bit of a notoriety at the same time. Very often I have noted that these so called forecasters are quick to dismiss official or sensible forecasts as being misleading, yet, we rarely hear of them when any chance of snow is gone.

Sappa

highdef wrote: »

Well I got a low air temp of 4.9 last night which is not all that far from ground frost territory. So I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in Ireland sees a frost in the next week or so

Let's hope not,time a plenty for that in December we do not want any cold like that in September or even November.

Iancar29

Sappa wrote: »

Let's hope not,time a plenty for that in December we do not want any cold like that in September or even November.

Surely you mean October???

Well according to the ensembles , its very well possible next week

DOCARCH

If we see -0.6c somewhere before the end of this month (no more and no less) I'll be (very) happy.

leahyl

My mum just told me there that she heard on the radio today that the long range forecast for winter is "snow and ice" - LOL! Talk about vague! She doesn't know who said it!

IrishGurll

These charts are getting me very excited , Very much looking forward to the end of this month By the look of charts its going to get much colder in the next few weeks , I've noticed a nip in the air the last few nights , Lets hope it's a cold one this year !

mrweatherman

have a look inside the irish star near centre page before pics of rosanna davidson they have a piece stating we are to have a rerun of 2009

Iancar29

mrweatherman wrote: »

have a look inside the irish star near centre page before pics of rosanna davidson they have a piece stating we are to have a rerun of 2009

Do u have a photo? ... cant get to the shops to by one.
Whos there source?????

srmambo

mrweatherman wrote: »

have a look inside the irish star near centre page before pics of rosanna davidson they have a piece stating we are to have a rerun of 2009

Wasn't 2009 the year where we got enough snow to cause some disruption in February?

NIALL D

Iancar29 wrote: »

Do u have a photo?

of rosanna davidson or the article in the paper :eek::D

Iancar29

I dunno who that is ....... but sure.... if shes a weather lady...

Lucreto

mrweatherman wrote: »

have a look inside the irish star near centre page before pics of rosanna davidson they have a piece stating we are to have a rerun of 2009

I keep forgetting 2009 was the year it was mostly cold with little snow and 2010 was the year with the heavy snowfall.

DOCARCH

2009 was probably the best year for snow in the naughties, but then 2010 came along and spoiled us!

IrishGurll

Here is The report from the dailystar , .....
http://thestar.ie/star/snow-on-the-way-but-not-till-christmas/

srmambo

Just checked the Netweather tv long range forecast and looking at the December chart breaks my heart a little, but otherwise November and October look pretty nice

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Lucreto

DOCARCH wrote: »

2009 was probably the best year for snow in the naughties, but then 2010 came along and spoiled us!

I don't remember 2009 was anything remarkable. I remember cold in Naas in 2009. The only snow I remember in 2009 was 11.50pm on 31st of December.

I spend 2 hours out in it and has work the next day.