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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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    #212
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    gothwalk wrote: »
    Sappa wrote: »
    When was the first frost last year or minus temperatures?

    Depends where in the country you are. Around our place in Maynooth, the first frost wasn't until the 7th of November in 2011, which is pretty late - we usually have it in October.
    I have a feeling we will see frost this mOnth


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    #213
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    gothwalk wrote: »
    Depends where in the country you are. Around our place in Maynooth, the first frost wasn't until the 7th of November in 2011, which is pretty late - we usually have it in October.

    First frost at the nearby Casement last year was on the 5th Nov, in 2010 it was occurred on the 20th Oct, and in 2009, it was as late as 28th Nov. Off the top of my head, I think the 1961-90 average date for the first frost at Casement is somewhere between the 15th - 20th Oct, but this no doubt has been pushed a few days ahead in the new 1981-2010 data set.


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    #214
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    In times of crappy boring weather like this ... one goes in search of hope in the CFS ... The last few times i checked it , November still looking nice for chances of cold. Then into December a conflict between zonal and easterly flow seems to occur.

    Closest decent bit of cold that i could find below -4 C @ 850 HP
    219977.png

    Best one i found and not going further than this date .. :D
    219980.png


    :pac:
    219979.png


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    #215
    Tindie
    Registered Users Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Tindie


    I just saw the weather for The Week Ahead!
    And Snow was mention for the Hills in Scotland!

    It going really windy on Friday for most of the UK!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJRuWcDi2CU&feature=plcp

    Not as stormy as it was last year
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HVd7hTzscw&feature=plcp


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    #216
    HellFireClub
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    When are we due the definitive winter 2012 Forecast from MT Cranium?


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    #217
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    When are we due the definitive winter 2012 Forecast from MT Cranium?
    October id say but he might give us a little tease before then


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    #218
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    When are we due the definitive winter 2012 Forecast from MT Cranium?
    Mts forecast last year was not good , postmans forecast was only one who got it correct


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    #219
    Daniel2590
    Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭Daniel2590


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    Mts forecast last year was not good , postmans forecast was only one who got it correct

    I think it was only the later winter months he got wrong, I think he got December pretty much spot on. So to say his entire forecast was bad is a bit unfair :P


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    #220
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Just re stating Su's thoughts about the Winter ahead being similar to pre 2009 winters..

    Heres the Winter 500 MB anomaly chart for the NH since 2007 ( the last lowest minima)
    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=139678

    The summer 500mb anomaly chart for the same years is along very similar lines to the winte.
    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=139679

    And heres the summer 2012 chart , looks rather similar !
    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=139680

    Its nice going through the years and comparing the patterns... though obviously there arent just one type of thing to look at but ye... thats one anyways :)


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    #221
    srmambo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭srmambo


    I think this year, there is a chance we may have some cold weather, but there is not possibility of it being like the winter we had in 2009 and 2010 if the trend for our winters is going to be similar to that of pre 2007's winters


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    #222
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    srmambo wrote: »
    I think this year winter, there is a chance we may have some cold weather, but there is not possibility of it being like the winter we had in 2009 and 2010 if the trend for our winters is going to be similar to that of pre 2007's winters

    I think so too :rolleyes: ;)

    Sure 09/10 .. its our dream scenario but id gladly take anything better than the winter just gone...

    Snowday count ... : 1 ... :(


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    #223
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Iancar29 wrote: »

    Snowday count ... : 1 ...

    Can boast about 5 or 6 snow days here last winter but each episode was as pitiful as the one that went before it.

    What I am looking for this winter:

    1. A winter akin to that of 1947 - TRUE blizzards galore with storm force winds to boot.

    2. Plenty of fierce thunderstorms with lightning ripping open the night sky as 80 mph winds roar.

    3. The odd settled day (but not too pushed about this)

    I have a feeling that this winter may be a wet one. We must be due a wet one at this stage as the last few winters have been extraordinarily dry.


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    #224
    alfa beta
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭alfa beta


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    I have a feeling that this winter may be a wet one. We must be due a wet one at this stage as the last few winters have been extraordinarily dry.


    Wet is fine by me....as long as the dew point is low enough of course!!


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    #225
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Oh the memories!!!



    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    27-11-2010, 01:30


    Upgrading our boards forecast to warn of localized blizzard conditions as winds increase from the NE overnight ... looking at recent obs in western Scotland and the radar, putting 2+2 together, can't escape thinking that very heavy snow streamers could develop more widely soon, and sweep in over parts of Ulster (incl Donegal), Mayo, and Leinster.

    Amounts of 10-20 cms cannot be ruled out in these squalls.

    very_happy_smiley_face_sticker-p217921057494781911envb3_400.jpg


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    #226
    tylercollins
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Are you reading that thread again Ian? hahaha! I read through it the other night and was getting so excited LOL!!


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    #227
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Currently on page 34... It actually makes me feel like im back there or it all fresh and is about to happen!! haha .. :D just words like streamers ,heavy snow, -1 dewpoints , poloar low , thundersnow .... nearly brings a tear to my eye! :)


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    #228
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Currently on page 34... It actually makes me feel like im back there or it all fresh and is about to happen!! haha .. :D just words like streamers ,heavy snow, -1 dewpoints , poloar low , thundersnow .... nearly brings a tear to my eye! :)

    Whats the link to the thread Ian ?


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    #229
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Deep Easterly wrote: »

    What I am looking for this winter:

    1. A winter akin to that of 1947 - TRUE blizzards galore with storm force winds to boot.

    I don't think the Boards servers would be able to handle all the posts in the threads here if that happened. :P


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    #230
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Whats the link to the thread Ian ?

    I do warn you .... uncontrollable memories may flood back causing a near emotional breakdown :rolleyes:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056102350


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    #231
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    I do warn you .... uncontrollable memories may flood back causing a near emotional breakdown :rolleyes:

    If you haven't had a breakdown yet Ian, have a look at 1947.

    archives-1947-1-30-12-1.png

    :P


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    #232
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    I do warn you .... uncontrollable memories may flood back causing a near emotional breakdown :rolleyes:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056102350

    Listen here Ian

    It is simply DEFINITELY going to happen this year

    I don't care what I have to do, who I have to sell my soul to, ITS HAPPENING :pac:


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    #233
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    maquiladora wrote: »
    If you haven't had a breakdown yet Ian, have a look at 1947.

    archives-1947-1-30-12-1.png

    :P

    Please......Stop..... :eek:


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    #234
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    ....

    UnWIK.gif


    OK , someone explain how they can rebuild such charts from back then??? :/


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    #235
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Linky:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&year=1871&hour=0&map=2&mode=0


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    #236
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Oh hang on, you meant how do they know !


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    #237
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    ....

    UnWIK.gif


    OK , someone explain how they can rebuild such charts from back then???

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2.html


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    #238
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Nobody dare mention the Isle of Man shadow.......................


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    #239
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Nobody dare mention the Isle of Man shadow.......................

    Dont worry , that has been...... taken care of.... :rolleyes: ;)


    220198.jpg


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    #240
    delw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Nobody dare mention the Isle of Man shadow.......................
    Cue Calibos post with the giant finger :D


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    #241
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    I want 1947 and I want it now!! :-P


This discussion has been closed.
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