Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Iancar29

pauldry wrote: »

I expect a mild Winter this year but you dont always get what you expect.

Basically if push came to shove Id say

December Mild
January Mild
February Cooler

No Christmas 2010 episodes anyways

Its too far away to predict though and a lot can change but I expect parts of Europe and US to get a very cold Winter coz of the warm Summer to balance their climates.

Our Summer hasnt been very warm apart from August and even that has been wet

Reverse physiology ...... I LIKE IT !

Musicman2000 Ive being watching the CFS daily charts and looking at the trends, I would expect a cold November and December and Jan and Feb to be around average to mild

I'll go for a cold late november and december.... repeat of 2010 :rolleyes:

Iancar29

I found the first decent one the CFS... hehehe

Musicman2000

The one problem we could have is the azores high, like last winter.

HellFireClub

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The one problem we could have is the azores high, like last winter.

Could someone explain what this Azores High is, where the Azores is and how an "Azores High" effects the Irish winter?!?

Iancar29

HellFireClub wrote: »

Could someone explain what this Azores High is, where the Azores is and how an "Azores High" effects the Irish winter?!?

Its a semi permanent high pressure system located just off the west coast of africa. In summer if it was to move up near us it would increase the chances for dry calm , sunny weather, but in winter if it moves up and locks in place in can block the colder air to the north from filtering in and then just brings mild wet winter . Thats just my simplified version of it now..

Basically we want it to bugger off way down south or west which should increase a cold spell being locked in place for a good period of time

Sappa

Hoping for a mild dry winter with sunny days.

davidsr20

Sappa wrote: »

Hoping for a mild dry winter with sunny days.

Where's the no thanks button ;( we want snow

Pa ElGrande

AGU: Link found between cold European winters and solar activity

NIALL D

redandwhite

A bad winter would wash away our road for good!

iiHyPeRize

..

NIALL D

interesting video ......

Blizzard 2010

:eek: Only problem with Gavin Partridge is he is an amateur who will be probably way off. He is suggesting a positive AO for this coming winter as May was mostly in a positive phase. He uses old fashioned methods when forecasting. My own view is to treat what he says with a pinch of salt, Saying that he could be right but I doubt it. The NOAA are still predicting a Weak El Nino or neutral conditions this autumn/winter.

ZX7R

If you look at the nao charts from climate prediction center ,it shows that the nao was negative to neutral for most or the month of may and went positive for less than 7 days. so to me would that not mean that may would have been classed as a negative month or neutral rather than a positive one

Blizzard 2010

ZX7R wrote: »

If you look at the nao charts from climate prediction center ,it shows that the nao was negative to neutral for most or the month of may and went positive for less than 7 days. so to me would that not mean that may would have been classed as a negative month or neutral rather than a positive one

you are correct, May was a mostly negative/neutral month.

mcriot29

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

ZX7R wrote: »

If you look at the nao charts from climate prediction center ,it shows that the nao was negative to neutral for most or the month of may and went positive for less than 7 days. so to me would that not mean that may would have been classed as a negative month or neutral rather than a positive one

you are correct, May was a mostly negative/neutral month.

Is joe b still going with a very cold winter uk and ire , he was going with neg nao

ZX7R

I think he is still going with a cold winter for us, REDSUNSET had a chart at the start of this tread from him ,maybe REDSUNSET can please tell us where he got this chart ,because i can find very little from joe b about winter 2012/2013 for europe

WinterLove

I Love winter (My username) Can somebody give me links to check for snow this winter

NIALL D

WinterLove wrote: »

I Love winter (My username) Can somebody give me links to check for snow this winter

type winter 2012 2013 into google and youtube , you will find plenty to read and watch for now !!!
im sure once we get into late sep / early oct there will be plenty of forecasts and talk about the upcoming winter

snowstorm445

WinterLove wrote: »

I Love winter (My username) Can somebody give me links to check for snow this winter

There are links but any forecast this early is not something to be relying on. Remember long range weather forecasting is still fairly impossible for most.

But since you asked according to the Met Office probability charts, however, (they still do long-range charts but they don't forecast.) the chance of a "well-below" average winter is quite high for this part of the world.

Redsunset

Good vid from Dr D Aleo on the NAO, sea temps etc...

A lot of the regular posters are aware of this theory.
He still shows some interesting comparisons.

Here's to the blizzards of winter 2012-2013. :pac:

Also I've noticed that the QBO has really tanked like it did prior to Nov/Dec 2010. Don't get too excited though as their were other times when this happened and we still ended up with blow torch winters.

All helps to aid in a lot of northern blocking by the easier transportation from tropics to help give a weakened polar vortex and support a strat warming. Anyway we're still a long way off and it's really folly to make any presumptions so early.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index


I'll included last years Strat thread for the newer folks on here as it helps to explain a complicated subject. I'll start a new thread in November.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056438481

Iancar29

Posted yesterday by the Lodge we stayed in up in Abisko, Northern Sweden back in January

Summer has left the building... Bore is coming!!!
(1000 likes and it´s gonna be a crazy Aurora and skiing winter)

snowstorm445

snowstorm445 wrote: »

There are links but any forecast this early is not something to be relying on. Remember long range weather forecasting is still fairly impossible for most.

But since you asked according to the Met Office probability charts, however, (they still do long-range charts but they don't forecast.) the chance of a "well-below" average winter is quite high for this part of the world.

Sorry, that charts for Autumn, mostly.

Here's the winter one. As you can see the probability for well-below average temperatures is even higher than that for Autumn. But take it with a pinch of salt.

tylercollins

Ohh god please be true lol All I want this Christmas/Winter is now, nothing else.

Iancar29

Got Down to -1.6C in Scotland last night!

It was a record breaking night for low temps in some places overnight. Coldest was Tulloch Bridge in the Highlands which dropped to -1.6c. Milder tonight...

Sappa

Nooooo,
Sunny mild and calm is tge perfect winter.
No cold or wet weather please

delw

Sappa wrote: »

Nooooo,
Sunny mild and calm is tge perfect winter. summer
No cold or wet weather please

FYP

nacho libre

I'm starting to get the itch that only snow can stop:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm starting to get the itch that only snow can stop:)

Ah here im the same, liking a nip in the air recently, lets hope winter comes quickly !

delw

t|nt|n wrote: »

Ah here im the same, liking a nip in the air recently, lets hope winter comes quickly !

But takes it's time to leave