Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Elmer Blooker

t|nt|n wrote: »

Ah here im the same, liking a nip in the air recently, lets hope winter comes quickly !

Summer is only beginning this week!

leahyl

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

t|nt|n wrote: »

Ah here im the same, liking a nip in the air recently, lets hope winter comes quickly !

Summer is only beginning this week!

This is the winter thread ;-)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I also like winter cause my post count goes through the roof

Iancar29

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Summer is only beginning this week!

I dunno where you have been ... we all no we only get 2 days of summer in Ireland... thats enough for me... :rolleyes:


... I want to see my Dog as happy as this again...

nacho libre

Class photo. I'd love to have a dog like that appreciated snow as much as I did:D

Gonzo

no matter how this winter pans out I think were likely to see more snow than we did last winter, I don't think it's possible to get much worse than last year.

pad199207

The Memories"

Elmer Blooker

Iancar29 wrote: »

I dunno where you have been ... we all no we only get 2 days of summer in Ireland... thats enough for me... :rolleyes:

I s'pose your right and I should know better - we only get two days of summer between June 1st and August 31st but plenty of summery weather in May and September!

Su Campu

With an El Nino developing and forecast to remain through the winter I would not be holding out for a cold one. Probably a repeat of some of the milder ones of the pre-2010 era.

derekon

Su Campu wrote: »

With an El Nino developing and forecast to remain through the winter I would not be holding out for a cold one. Probably a repeat of some of the milder ones of the pre-2010 era.

Hi Su,

I suppose its all just speculation at the end of the day however I am hoping for a few snowfalls during the coming winter and some decent cold spells. I mean if this winter proves to be one week after another of 12oC temps and rain, I am emigrating!

Lets hope the jet stream moves slightly out of position as it has been doing for the majority of the summer

D

snowstorm445

Su Campu wrote: »

With an El Nino developing and forecast to remain through the winter I would not be holding out for a cold one. Probably a repeat of some of the milder ones of the pre-2010 era.

This winter will definitely be determined by the NAO. Last year was so mild because of the strength of the NAO; around Christmastime it was around +4, meaning the westerlies and the Jet Stream were incredibly strong.

Currently, the NAO is entering positive territory, albeit slight (which would explain the mild spell at the moment), but is forecast to drop significantly over the next few days.

snowstorm445

Gonzo wrote: »

no matter how this winter pans out I think were likely to see more snow than we did last winter, I don't think it's possible to get much worse than last year.

That's debatable. It was very mild, but we barely escaped the cold weather that engulfed Europe last February. Had it not been for the power of the Azores High, we could have potentially seen a cold and snowy spell as fronts from the Atlantic would clash against the Siberian High. Fairly cold temperatures as well, down to -10*C could well have been likely.

In the 2000s winters, Ireland, and indeed the whole of Europe, had far milder winters.

maquiladora

I have a feeling we are in for a very mild and wet winter, sorry lads....

As long as we get a couple of interesting Atlantic storm to follow I won't mind.

ninebeanrows

Right the way it works on these threads if everyone says it will be mild and wet it will be the opposite and vica-versa! Anything could happen yet.

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

Right the way it works on these threads if everyone says it will be mild and wet it will be the opposite and vica-versa! Anything could happen yet.

I like your way of thinking Weathercheck ;-)

jimmy.d

http://www.blacksatchel.com/winter/2012/08/looking-forward-to-winter-20122013/ http://www.blacksatchel.com/winter/2012/09/likely-early-first-frost-2012/

mike65

/\ Means exactly nothing. Sure wasn't the Mercury hitting the roof in March for a few days?

Redsunset

Last 90 days highlighting the negative NAO.





Question is, will it be there when it matters?

ninebeanrows

Could be chilly next week. -5c 850hpa not far from Scotland

Lucreto

Weathercheck wrote: »

Could be chilly next week. -5c 850hpa not far from Scotland

Tshirts one week winter gear the next.

FI can be interesting sometimes.

snowstorm445

Weathercheck wrote: »

Could be chilly next week. -5c 850hpa not far from Scotland

It does seem as if the trend is for a general breakdown around Sunday, but what happens after that remains to be seen. I personally would go for a unsettled period for most of the week, with high pressure building back in later, although it might not necessarily bring warm weather.

The NAO is the reasoning for my theory, as it is expected to drop below negative once again after a spell in positive territory.

Su Campu

The NAO is only a result, not a driver, of the patterns. What really is going to be important for next week is how Leslie interacts with the upper pattern over the Canadian maritimes, as this will dictate how the mid-Atlantic high will develop and hence influence out weather. If Leslie turns into a large scale low over New Foundland, as some models have it, it will feed the high and keep in west of us, meaning cooler northerlies for us. Otherwise we'd be in a more westerly regime, so nothing of note, but the high could extend eastwards and give us some more settled conditions. Leslie will be the key over the next week.

Redsunset

Correct Su. The NAO is not the driver and has been said many times on the forum over the years. New posters need to understand this.

MrDerp

Redsunset wrote: »

Correct Su. The NAO is not the driver and has been said many times on the forum over the years. New posters need to understand this.

As a new(er) reader and infrequent poster, I misunderstood that completely, and I can thank the vague comments of Joe Bastardi, on his old accuweather column, for that.

Lucreto

The Weather Outlook has its first Winter forecast.

Christmas weather forecast introduction
Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2012 weather forecast page. This will update regularly (usually each Saturday) during the run up to Christmas from September 1st and will take into account the weather patterns which develop during the autumn. Please remember that our Xmas forecast is intended to be for fun, as trying to forecast a single day even one week ahead is fraught with difficulty. The forecast is based on what we expect the general synoptic conditions to be like during the late December period.

Forecast
It's that time of the year again, and our Christmas forecast is up and running with the first update. The TWO Autumn forecast has just been issued and covers the period until the beginning of December, with the headline being for an unsettled season. So what about the late December weather prospects? In recent years there have been a number of cold spells around the Christmas period, although that wasn't the case last year when most of the country remained green. This year the initial forecast is again for a slightly higher than average chance of a White Christmas across all of the country, but that means the most likely outcome is for it to be green. There are signs of northern blocking developing during the autumn months according to some long range forecasting models, and if that turns out to be correct then expect subsequent forecasts to increase the chances of snow on December 25th

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Pity is will be the opposite.

Sorry if its already been posted.

snowstorm445

Lucreto wrote: »

The Weather Outlook has its first Winter forecast.



http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Pity is will be the opposite.

Sorry if its already been posted.

I think Brian Gaze is overall a fairly moderate and accurate forecaster, although he often has difficulty sticking to his guns. Last December, he had forecasted a slightly below average winter, but he changed this to slightly above barely 2 or 3 weeks in.

He also isn't always the most accurate in the long-term, especially at this range. He did forecast a warmer than average summer I believe.

Sappa

When was the first frost last year or minus temperatures?

Lucreto

Sappa wrote: »

When was the first frost last year or minus temperatures?

It was sometime in late November early December.

snowstorm445

Redsunset wrote: »

Correct Su. The NAO is not the driver and has been said many times on the forum over the years. New posters need to understand this.

I'm well aware of this. I simply said that since the NAO is set to drop, it will probably coincide with a period of more unsettled and changeable weather. You can see from the graph shown that periods of warmth were often preceded by a positive NAO, and during the unsettled period of weather we had during most of the summer months, it coincided with a period of negative NAO.

And just for the record I have been following Boards as well as other weather forums for a while now, so I wouldn't call myself new to the subject.

gothwalk

Sappa wrote: »

When was the first frost last year or minus temperatures?

Depends where in the country you are. Around our place in Maynooth, the first frost wasn't until the 7th of November in 2011, which is pretty late - we usually have it in October.