Kryo's Sports Bets!!!

kryogen

Decided to start a log because I am getting sloppy with some of my bets and want to try to get them back down in frequency and up in profitability. Been on a good run lately and I feel if I can cut out the silly bets it would be even more profitable.

This is not a tipping log, this is simply a record of my intended bets, will start with a bank of 100pts and there will be no maximum stake although generally it won't go above 10% of bank. The bank is simply an indication of the strength of the bet and not the same amount necessarily as the real money stake.

At this hour I have no reasonable bets to do, and with more then a little irony given that this is to cut out the silly bets I want to get the log started with an accumulator

A four fold

No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
1 Figueirense Figueirense v Joinville
(Full Time Result) 29/04/2012 None 1/2 To Run
2 CD Lara CD Lara v Llaneros
(Full Time Result) 29/04/2012 None 4/9 To Run
3 Atletico PR Atletico PR v Paranavai PR
(Full Time Result) 29/04/2012 None 1/3 To Run
4 Olimpia Asuncion Independiente FBC v Olimpia Asuncion
(Full Time Result) 29/04/2012 None 4/11 To Run


All should do the business but no doubt it won't work out well

Odds just under 3/1

Stake 2 Potential Return 7.88

More serious bets to follow

kryogen

Two more for tonight actually before I go to bed

NBA basketball

Boston Celtics v Atlanta Hawks

Taking Atl Hawks @ 5/6 for 2.5pts
Also going for the unders 179.5 @ 10/11 for 2.5pts

The last 4 out of 6 games between these two teams has gone under

Don't have time to do a write up on why I am taking the Hawks over the Celtics, could be a very close game but I feel the Hawks will just about have too much, winning by 3 in the end

Total stake 5pts

Bank - 93pts

kryogen

Predictably, 1 of the 4 football teams failed to win so thats -2 for the bank

In the NBA Hawks won 83-74 and the game went under @ 157 total points so

2.5 * 5/6 = 4.58
2.5 * 10/11 = 4.77

New Bank = 102.35 +2.35

kryogen

Portugal Superliga

Sporting Lisbon v Academica

Sporting will be looking to bounce back from their Europa League exit by closing in on a Champions League place with a win over the freefalling Academica tonight.

Sporting Lisbon have kept 14 clean sheets this season, 9 of those at home and only once this season have they conceded more then 1 goal at home. They have scored 27 goals at home while conceding just 6. Tonights opponents are on a 5 game losing streak and have not won in 15 games. They have managed just 13 goals away from home all season while conceding 23, 7 of their 13 games this season away from home have resulted in more then 2 goals being let it.

The two negatives regarding the selection are that they were held to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, and they have just been knocked out of the Europa League, they may have a hangover from that but I don't think they will. The coach is very passionate and I have every faith in him to lift the team and concentrate on getting into the Champions League for next season, if they win tonight they will be within 3 points of that position.

The bet will be slightly conservative to err on the safe side as there has not been a big margin between these two teams in recent times

Sporting -0.5,-1 @ 1.6

stake 8

cakes285

kryogen wrote: »

Predictably, 1 of the 4 football teams failed to win so thats -2 for the bank

In the NBA Hawks won 83-74 and the game went under @ 157 total points so

2.5 * 5/6 = 4.58 + 2.5 = 7.08
2.5 * 10/11 = 4.77 + 2.5 = 7.27

New Bank = 107.35 +7.35

Why have you got +2.5 on your returns?

kryogen

cakes285 wrote: »

Why have you got +2.5 on your returns?

I couldn't tell you! I blame the hour of the morning and not being fully awake

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Portugal Superliga

Sporting Lisbon v Academica


Sporting -0.5,-1 @ 1.6

stake 8

Finished 2-1 Sporting thanks in large part to a sporting OG

Game went pretty much as expected with Sporting suffering a little from their Europa League game and lacking a little sharpness.

Still, half stake returned, half stake win so

Stake 8
Return 10.46

Bank 104.81 +4.81

Cheeky_gal

kryogen wrote: »

kryogen wrote: »

Portugal Superliga

Sporting Lisbon v Academica


Sporting -0.5,-1 @ 1.6

stake 8

Finished 2-1 Sporting thanks in large part to a sporting OG

Game went pretty much as expected with Sporting suffering a little from their Europa League game and lacking a little sharpness.

Still, half stake returned, half stake win so

Stake 8
Return 10.46

Bank 104.81 +4.81

Will you be betting on the basketball tonight?

kryogen

Cheeky_gal wrote: »

Will you be betting on the basketball tonight?

Was leaning towards the Knicks on the handicap but decided against it, I'm looking properly at the late game (Mavericks @ Thunder) now and may put up a selection I think.

If I do it will in the next 15 minutes anyway

kryogen

NBA Basketball

DAL Mavericks v OKL Thunder

The 1st game was a cracker, with it being sealed by a last second Kevin Durant basket, they escaped with a 99-98 win and in honesty did not play to their potential that night, Durant himself didnt have a great night but he came through when it counted.

I think Thunder will be better this time around, the Mavs played well above average last time and Thunder played well below and still won.

I will take the risk on them tonight to cover the 6.5 point spread and also for the game to go under 193.5

Not crazy about it so a small bet from me on this one.

1pts Thunder -6.5 @ 10/11
2pts under 193.5 @ 10/11
0.5pt double of the above

Total stake 3.5pts

Bank 104.81
In Play 3.5

cakes285

kryogen wrote: »

cakes285 wrote: »

Why have you got +2.5 on your returns?

I couldn't tell you! I blame the hour of the morning and not being fully awake

Hi Kryo, hope u didn't think I was having a go yesterday cus I wasn't just interested in what ur doin, brave for any1 to post up their bets. I'm in England so won't b betting on NBA but gud look to ya
If u need any extra info on European (especially English) football just give me a shout on this thread.

kryogen

Thanks cakes, as I said, I dunno why I mis calculated, just not fully awake I guess (Im Irish btw!)

NBA last night, no fun whatsoever, was another close game between the Mavericks and Thunder, again closer then it should have been with Thunder pulling it out late again! Burned by them twice now lol Poor 2nd and 3rd quarters are what killed me.

All three bets lost, Thunder won by 3, game went over 193 so obviously the double went down the drain.......should have just stuck with my Knicks lean!

Result: -3.50

Bank 101.31 +1.31

kryogen

Ill more then likely have a couple of bets today, wont be able to do write ups but heres two

Stoke v Everton
Club Brugge v Standard Liege

3pts win on Everton 8/5
7pts win on Club Brugge 3/4 Win! 12.25 (+5.25)

kryogen

Going to take a chance on a French League 2 team also

Laval v Chateroux

The sides are beside each other in the table, Laval 10th, todays opponents 9th.

The opponents won the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season but today can be different, Laval are better at home and Chateroux not so good away.

Its the price really that swings it for me, I believe it is worth a small stake. Laval have lost 4 times at home this season, winning 9 games, Chateroux have lost 10 times away this season and going off the last 5 games Laval are also in better form.

Laval 2pts win at 11/10

Total stake 2 Lost drew 1-1. -2

One more for today but have to do more research into it and will post later

cakes285

kryogen wrote: »

Thanks cakes, as I said, I dunno why I mis calculated, just not fully awake I guess (Im Irish btw!)

NBA last night, no fun whatsoever, was another close game between the Mavericks and Thunder, again closer then it should have been with Thunder pulling it out late again! Burned by them twice now lol Poor 2nd and 3rd quarters are what killed me.

All three bets lost, Thunder won by 3, game went over 193 so obviously the double went down the drain.......should have just stuck with my Knicks lean!

Result: -3.50

Bank 101.30 +1.31

Oh, not sure why I assumed u were American, prob ur American sport knowledge I won't insult u with my football info then lol

kryogen

There is a thread in football betting for football only tips and info, good place, some good posters there that have helped me improve my knowledge of certain leagues and regions, head on over there with football bets, never have too many

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Ill more then likely have a couple of bets today, wont be able to do write ups but heres two

Stoke v Everton
Club Brugge v Standard Liege

3pts win on Everton 8/5 -3 lose 1-1 draw
7pts win on Club Brugge 3/4 Win! 12.25 (+5.25)

Tonight has been so frustrating, placed a bet in shop of Liverpool/Fulham and Everton/Stoke draw also. Would have been a serious payout

All in all end the day ok, pretty much break even, +0.25 on the day

Bank101.56 +1.56

kryogen

Early double has caught my eye today

Anderlecht 4/9 and Athletico Madrid 1/3

Just a tad under even money

Stake 10 Potential Return 19.26

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Early double has caught my eye today

Anderlecht 4/9 and Athletico Madrid 1/3

Just a tad under even money

Stake 10 Potential Return 19.26

Didn't get to watch the Atletico Madrid game, they were winning, they had a man sent off, they conceded a 91st minute equalizer :rolleyes:

Pain in the hoop! This log seems to be a bad luck charm for me :)Thankfully a couple of bets I put in the football tips thread came in

-10

Bank 91.56 -8.44

kryogen

Russian Primera League

Krylia Sovetov @ 4/7

7pts win

Krylia Sovetov -1 Asian Line @ 2.025

5pts win

No time for write up right now, will try get to it later before the game kicks off!

Total stake 12 pts

This is quite marginal if you look statistically, but Krylya are in better form, they have not lost to Tomsk in the last 4 meetings of the teams, winning the last time they met at home 2-0, in their last 10 games at home they have only been beaten once, by Thun, who are a much better team then Tomsk and it was a friendly. During this ten game run they have got a 1-1 draw with the team in 1st place, they have beaten the teams in 2nd 3rd and 4th place in the league (they occupy 5th) They don't score a lot of goals, generally winning 1-0 or 2-1 but I think the Asian handicap is decent value because Ill get the stake back if they do just win by 1, as long as the win

Tomsk last 10 games away from home they have lost 8 drawn 1 and won 1 (against the team in bottom place) excluding that game they have scored just 4 goals in the other 9 games away.

I think Krylya will win comfortably, as in keep a clean sheet, and am taking the chance on the handicap.

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Russian Primera League

Krylia Sovetov @ 4/7

7pts win

Krylia Sovetov -1 Asian Line @ 2.025

5pts win

No time for write up right now, will try get to it later before the game kicks off!

Total stake 12 pts

This is quite marginal if you look statistically, but Krylya are in better form, they have not lost to Tomsk in the last 4 meetings of the teams, winning the last time they met at home 2-0, in their last 10 games at home they have only been beaten once, by Thun, who are a much better team then Tomsk and it was a friendly. During this ten game run they have got a 1-1 draw with the team in 1st place, they have beaten the teams in 2nd 3rd and 4th place in the league (they occupy 5th) They don't score a lot of goals, generally winning 1-0 or 2-1 but I think the Asian handicap is decent value because Ill get the stake back if they do just win by 1, as long as the win

Tomsk last 10 games away from home they have lost 8 drawn 1 and won 1 (against the team in bottom place) excluding that game they have scored just 4 goals in the other 9 games away.

I think Krylya will win comfortably, as in keep a clean sheet, and am taking the chance on the handicap.

As predicted it was a low scoring affair, Krylya went 1-0 up after 6 minutes and thats how it stayed!

Back to winning ways thankfully, I did do other bets today but they are in play at the moment so to add them now would feel like after timing so Ill leave them out.

Result : Win 7pts @4/7 and a push for the othe 5pts

Old Bank 91.56
New Bank 95.56 -4.44

kryogen

Copa Do Brasil

Coritiba @ 13/20 10pts
Coritiba -.5, -1 Asian @ 1.850 5pts

Total Stake 15pts

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Copa Do Brasil

Coritiba @ 13/20 10pts Win +6.50
Coritiba -.5, -1 Asian @ 1.850 5pts 1/2 Win, 1/2 Void +2.12

Total Stake 15pts

Old Bank 95.56
New Bank 104.18 +4.18

kryogen

Noewegian Premier League

Rosenborg v Stabaek

Rosenborg have played 3 home games this season, won 2 and drew 1, they have scored 6 goals in the 2 games they won conceding 1 and drew the other 0-0.

Stabaek has played 3 away games this season, won 0 drew 0 and lost 3, they have scored 2 goals and conceded 10. Overall Stabaek have a record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, scoring 2 and conceding 14.

My selection will be Rosenborg -1.5,-2 on the Asian line @ 1.675

This is to cover myself if they do happen to win the game 3-1

8pts @1.675 1/2 win 1/2 void +2.72 oh and it finished 3-1! correct score bet would have been nice lol

My other bet for the day will be

Poland I Liga

Piast Gliwice v Flota Swinoujscie

Like my bet from yesterday this is quite marginal, in the last 10 home games Piast have won 5 drawn 4 and lost 1, they are 3rd in the league, tied on points with 2nd and 3 points off the top. The worry is that they do not score many either, they tend to win 2-1 or 1-0 scoring more then 2 goals just twice in the last 10 home games.

Flota currently sit in 8th place in the league (of 18) their last 10 away games they have 3 wins 4 draws and 3 losses. Not too shabby really.

Piast have not beaten Flota in their last 3 encounters, losing 1. Having said that I still think they will have enough to get over the line today by a 1 goal win.

Piesta to win. 2pts @3/4 Finished 3-2, win +1.50


Total staked today 10 pts

kryogen

Adding one more selection for today, from the Brisbane Premier League in Australia

North Pines v Redlands Utd

Taking Redlands Utd -1, -1.5 @1.900

5pts Staked @ 1.9 Win, Redlands won 6-1, feel bad about being so cautious now! +4.5

kryogen

Good day today so far, may have another couple of bets later.

Old Bank 104.18
New Bank 112.90 +12.90

kryogen

Anderlecht v Club Brugge 8/13

Sigma Olomouc v FK Baumit Jablonec 10/11

Will try to a write up but if unable I will be having

5pts on Anderlecht @ 8/13 and 3pts on Sigma at 10/11

Total stake 8pts

kryogen

Disaster of a day all round, betting and otherwise!

-8pts

Bank 104.90 +4.90

kryogen

Blackburn V Wigan

This relegation decider will be a closely fought affair probably, Wigan have been on a great run of form, Blackburn have struggled at home all season.

The bet that stands out for me is Wigan,0.0 on the Asian line @ 1.850

It is slightly better then the DNB option which is 4/5

Going to have 5pts on this win +4.30

There is of course a chance that Blackburn may turn up for this one, but I'm happy to lean towards Wigan with the odds, they have looked like a different team in recent weeks.

My main game is Elfsborg v IFK Goteborg in Sweden

Simply put, these two teams do not lose home games to each other, you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time either of them won against the other away from home, Elfsborg are on a good run, have had injury problems but they are coming to an end now and Jawo is starting to find the net regularly, Goteborg are on a good run also, they had a poor start to the season but are now unbeaten in 5 and have 3 wins in a row but I expect that to end today.

Elfsborg have won 5 in a row and I expect that to be 6 by the end of the day.

The last 5 games played between the two where Elfsborg has been at home has resulted in 4 wins and a draw for Elfsborg, they have scored 12 and conceded 4 in those games. Going back further, head to head, the last 15 home games for Elfsborg have resulted in 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses for Elfsborg with an aggregate score of 28-12.

Will more then likely be a close game, 2-1 is a likely outcome imo, but I am very confident of Elfsborg picking up all the points and will be having a 15pt stake on them @ Evns to do so

Elfsborg 1/1 - 15pts win +15pts

Nice, +19.30pts, good day

kryogen

Old Bank 104.90
New Bank 124.20 +24.20pts

kryogen

No time for a write up, kick off in 10 minutes. Tried not to but can't resist the price!

Peru League

Alianza Lima v Juan Aurich

Short and sweet, Alianza are good at home, Juan are poor on the road.

I hope this will be a comfortable home win

Alianza -0.5 Asian @ 1.825 10pts

Just after I placed the bet, the odds shifted slightly, with Juan shortening but 1/2 a point. Not a good sign but the bet is done now so hopefully the fix is not in!

Edit: more money coming for Juan, I am going to buy out of this bet as it doesn't feel right anymore, odds shouldn't be changing so much this close to kick off. Worrys me too much so I have bought out for a guaranteed loss, either 1.75pts or 1pt,ish.

Should have just bet both teams to score will update tomorrow what the results were