Possible Cold Reload

Redsunset

Can we stop with the name calling. You have aired your feelings on the two guys. Move on.

TheMilkyPirate

Apologies.

J6P

Yikes..spare a thought for our Polish friends who are heading into the freezer

Sponge Bob

Calibos, I think in fairness that MT really said earlier ( around 11am) that 'for the first time' he 'could see a streamer setup happening' from the models.

It was certainly not a Joe Bastardi tweet style comment. EG. "Monster Streamers will imminently Blizzard Bray and Blitz That Which is left Unburied". Much more sedate.

Joe Public

Yes, the "rate your forecaster" stuff is getting a bit of an annoyance ok.

Good call!

M.T. Cranium

Absolutely, situation is delicate to say the least, but I remain optimistic that snow will come of this in Wicklow and other parts of the east coast. For whatever reason I'm more pessimistic about south coast, just don't feel that the depth of cold air will be very reliable there. Anything could happen here, the models are all over the place.

dacogawa

Is this why you like the Irish weather so much M.T. ?

It seems like it is a nightmare to predict compared to most other places & you just like the challenge ?

Thanks from all of us for taking the time!

Now snowgods please send some white stuff so that harmony will rain (or snow) on boards again

Calibos

trogdor wrote: »

Don't really see the problem with streamer potential on the wind direction currently forecast, obviously it really opens up potential for the South coast compared to a North-Easterly but i don't see it hampering the East coast that much. Made a quick illustration below. The sea track on a South-Easterly (For Dublin) is only a bit shorter than a North-Easterly and you can see that in a S-SE flow the potential sea track is actually much longer than in a NE flow.

My post was actually in the Model discussion thread but was moved here and was in response to some guys in that thread saying the East Coast would at best only see flurrys and not organised trains from that flow. So with the post here in isolation it looks like I am saying I think MT is wrong or think he has forgotten about a Wales shadow when in fact the Wales shadow thing was a rhetorical question for the posters in the other thread saying streamers couldn't happen for the East except from a North Easterly. I didn't literally think MT had forgotten about the Wales shadow.

Like your diagram, it did look to me like there was a long enough track from Mid Wales and thats why I was unsure why a good few posters in that thread were adamant that there could be no streamers from a SE flow.

However, they did put doubt in my mind and I got the oul ruler out just now and held it up to my screen and tbh until you get to the south eastern tip of Wales the track up the wales coast is pretty much the same distance to Dublin as the IOM is, so maybe they are correct after all?

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Calibos, I think in fairness that MT really said earlier ( around 11am) that 'for the first time' he 'could see a streamer setup happening' from the models.

It was certainly not a Joe Bastardi tweet style comment. EG. "Monster Streamers will imminently Blizzard Bray and Blitz That Which is left Unburied". Much more sedate.

I did bold the word 'Possibility' to indicate I knew this wasn't a guarantee by MT. Either you missed that or didn't interpret the bolding like I intended.

One other thing has confused me though. How is there even a possibilty of streamers off the Irish Sea with the 850 temps we are likely to get when the Eastern seaboard of the UK with lower 850 temps apparently isn't going to get much streamers if any off the North Sea according to several forecasters.
Is this something to do with the temperature delta. ie the North sea SST's are much colder than the irish sea meaning a smaller delta even though their 850's are even lower than ours will be. Or is it something to do with windspeeds, ie. a stronger SE for us and a slacker E flow for them??

pistolpetes11

Is the flow not too slack to provide the streamers ?

In the wind chart I posted in the model forum it was offering 6mph se/sse

Although it does not give the figures on the one I posted when you scrolled over them it was not showing anything special wind wise .

Fully Established

If i remember correctly did,nt the last snowfall for the east coast come from a frontal sytem that was over belgium,ocluded front when met eireann predicted an end to the cold weather and they got it so wrong ,im not backing the models tonight the siberian blast must end somewhere but there is so much uncertanity with the models take nothing for granted my feeling is we are a few hundred miles on the wrong side.

M.T. Cranium

I think it's more a case that I like the Irish people, your weather is interesting and a challenge but there are plenty of different challenges out there, and by the way this is not all that I do in a day ... fairly active in three or four other places too.

I think most people here understand this distinction, but it's not so much the weather that's challenging, it's the model variability and getting some handle on how to play situations of model disparity. There is the added element of getting the forecast to fit the accurate model, sometimes we are all surprised by details, but the bigger challenge is like in this situation, coping with considerable spread in the guidance. You can't really do a compromise forecast for snow and -7 or partly cloudy and +5.

My practice is to consult the discussion threads and try to factor in what experienced boards weather people are saying. It may seem like a lone wolf operation at times over on the daily forecast thread, but especially in key weather events, I am very open to the collective viewpoint as it evolves over in this section. We would probably profit from a group approach to the boards forecast as on other large forums, but frankly I don't think too many people want the drudgery of doing this kind of forecasting in less severe spells that form the foundation, and there's the time factor, the one thing I do really better than anyone here is stay up all night because it isn't night for me (8 hours behind), then I stay up all night here about as well as you, when things get hairy.

Actually a much shorter version is that I am stark staring mad.

NIALL D

what time are the 00z's due out 3 - 4 ???

TheMilkyPirate

NIALL D wrote: »

what time are the 00z's due out 3 - 4 ???

GFS rolling out at half 3 finished by 4:45, Think UKMO is about ten past 4??

ECM is 6am

DanRu

First time posting. As much as I love cold weather, let's spare a thought for the 36 people who have died because of this cold spell. I for one am glad that we are on the outer echelons of this beast. God help them.

NIALL D

baraca wrote: »

GFS rolling out at half 3 finished by 4:45, Think UKMO is about ten past 4??

ECM is 6am

thanks baraca

whataboutnow

cold spell over for us according to metoffice,pathetic coldspell if this turns out to be true.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html
read days 3-5

mickger844posts

Met Eireann have the cold snap ending Friday. Judging by the overnight models i think they could be right.


Today
Frost and a risk of icy patches in Ulster and north Leinster at first this morning. Scattered outbreaks of rain or sleet elsewhere gradually dying out and cloud breaking but some snow flurries possible near eastern coasts. Highest temperatures ranging from 3 or 4 degrees Celsius in Ulster to 8 or 9 degrees Celsius in west Munster. Winds moderate to fresh, southeast to east.

Tonight

A few snow flurries still possible early tonight near Irish Sea coasts, otherwise dry with clear spells. Easterly winds will slacken and it will turn very cold, with ice forming on damp, untreated surfaces. Some freezing fog patches may form in the midlands also. Lowest temperatures +1 to -3 degrees Celsius.



Tomorrow

Frost, ice and any fog clearing slowly on Wednesday morning. Mostly sunny for the day but remaining very cold, with moderate easterly winds adding to the chill. Highest temperatures just 3 to 6 degrees Celsius, several degrees lower than normal for the start of February.

Outlook

Wednesday night will be dry and very cold with clear periods and little or no wind; some freezing fog patches may form inland. Sharp air frost and severe ground frost will occur widely, with ice forming on any damp surfaces. Thursday will continue dry with a good deal of sunshine and light to moderate, east to southeast breezes; it will remain very cold, with frost and fog patches clearing only slowly and returning soon after dark. However, later in the night, southerly winds will freshen along the Atlantic seaboard and cloudy conditions, with outbreaks of rain, will develop in western parts of Connaught and Munster before morning. During Friday, outbreaks of rain will spread eastwards across the country and, coming up against very cold air, will turn to freezing rain, sleet or snow in places further east for a time. However, with southerly winds freshening generally, temperatures will rise sufficiently by the end of the day to melt any snow which might briefly accumulate. Rain will clear for a time early Friday night and, with winds easing, temperatures may dip low enough for frost to occur. However, southerly winds will pick up again later in the night, with cloud increasing and outbreaks of rain spreading to the west and north once more. Saturday will be a much milder day countrywide, with extensive cloud, spells of rain or drizzle and moderate to fresh, south to southwest winds; however, the rain will clear away on Saturday night, winds will ease and frost is likely to develop in many places causing damp surfaces to ice over. Sunday should start dry and bright but rain will spread east later and it will turn considerably milder. This rather mild theme will continue into the early days of next week, with occasional spells of rain or drizzle and predominantly southerly winds which will strengthen at times.

ZX7R

My inlaws live in medyka outside the city of przemysl -26 last night.
also they said, there met office said that the westeren countrys including ireland/uk,are under estamating how strong the sirbean cold is.

H2UMrsRobinson

It's very frustrating but a couple of years of model watching have taught me not to get my hopes up until the flakes actually start falling from the sky. My commiseration's are with anyone still in the learning curve. I've been there. I feel your pain. We're still technically in January and have a good 4-6 weeks of possibility left but it don't look good. Let's face it we've been spoiled the past 2 years. And there's always a chance of my favourite type of snow. The Ninja variety. Defies all models and sneaks up on you when you're least expecting it ! It's a rare animal though.

We live in hope !

Sponge Bob

Not over yet Mrs R, that is one big pool of cold only a few miles away.

thomasj

whataboutnow wrote: »

cold spell over for us according to metoffice,pathetic coldspell if this turns out to be true.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_weather.html
read days 3-5

I like this:

. Heading into the first full of week of February though, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast with arisk of the colder easterly conditions returning at least across the east and south east. The most likely scenario is for further weather systems to push in from the west but stalling over the country giving an increasing risk of snow in central and eastern parts, especially over higher ground. Temperatures probably below normal in the east but near normal at times in the west.

thomasj

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not over yet Mrs R, that is one big pool of cold only a few miles away.

Any idea how far west the pool has spread?

Elmer Blooker

How anyone can see any hope at the moment is beyond me!
This is same depressing chart we've been looking at since November.
(dont worry I'll say nothing!)
I think we'll see easterlies dominate the second half of Feb.

Rebelbrowser

I do feel some of the analysis of this cold spell is a bit like going to a wedding and spending the whole day speculating when the couple will die...lets just enjoy the party, however brief!

Obviously I have seen MT's update this morning but just generally, forgetting breakdown issues, what's the feel on snow potential between now and Friday? Might some people see snow today (even unexpectedly?)....for example could the drizzle that remains turn to snow as it buggers off south west? I ask as my favourite bit of any cold spell is radar (not model) watching and trying to rationalise what you see on the radar against the "its snowing in x" posts you get on here. I think we'd all get a boost from some snow reports today.......

That said I saw the bbc forecast at 7.30am and they had temps of 3 and 4 in East England tomorrow - I thought they'd be sub zero by tomorrow.

Victor Meldrew

OK,

This winter has been annoyingly mild. After last year i don't want to deal with:

lethal footpaths
Lethal roads
no water
mad commutes

However, I'd quite like a few Hoar frosts and crisp days with a bit of a easterly blast to freshen up the mind....

So i, for one, welcome this non-snowmageddon scenario

cyclops999

I can hear the fat lady singing:-(

fizzycyst

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I do feel some of the analysis of this cold spell is a bit like going to a wedding and spending the whole day speculating when the couple will die...lets just enjoy the party, however brief!

Obviously I have seen MT's update this morning but just generally, forgetting breakdown issues, what's the feel on snow potential between now and Friday? Might some people see snow today (even unexpectedly?)....for example could the drizzle that remains turn to snow as it buggers off south west? I ask as my favourite bit of any cold spell is radar (not model) watching and trying to rationalise what you see on the radar against the "its snowing in x" posts you get on here. I think we'd all get a boost from some snow reports today.......

That said I saw the bbc forecast at 7.30am and they had temps of 3 and 4 in East England tomorrow - I thought they'd be sub zero by tomorrow.

Being an optimist, I'm hoping for any precip falling on Thurs/Fri to be snow. Forecasts in general aren't too exciting with the mild muck winning by Sat, but I'll take Thurs/Fri.

Sponge Bob

Prob is
....very dry till late saturday.

force eleven

Looks like high pressure slipping into mid Europe, and over the top comes the mild damp horrible (if you like cold clear air) southwesterlies. A 2 day wonder it looks like now and not much of one either. Maybe a messy breakdown to keep some interest going.

People are talking about the fat lady singing - I'd say she's bellowing herself hoarse right now.

Not completely writing off a very cold spell of weather yet, you would be foolish to do so, but if the Atlantic keeps on chugging away it will be the most snowless winter ever for this location.:mad:

Cionád

Southwesterlies,