Possible Cold Reload

Calibos

ZX7R wrote: »

Siomon Keeling's forcast is very intresting ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_MYSrqKaGE

secrecy_ie

I don't even care if it sticks any more (okay, I do) but I just want to see some snow falling at least!

munsterlegend

that 12z GFS certainly has dampened the optimism somewhat! still early days and time for more westward shifts yet..maybe the ECM/UKMO will surprise us.

Sponge Bob

munsterlegend wrote: »

i never said anything as to the seniority of the staff in Met Eireann overnight.

Nope you didn`t. I`d be interested in seeing proof of this allegation that met morning forecasts=ECM all the same.

ZX7R

Thanks Calibos i was not to sure how to put the forcast up myself....

pistolpetes11

munsterlegend wrote: »

that 12z GFS certainly has dampened the optimism somewhat! still early days and time for more westward shifts yet..maybe the ECM/UKMO will surprise us.

All the ups and down its hard to bloody take at this stage !

Again we have noting set in stone ! Hopefully things firm up over the next few runs

munsterlegend

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Nope you didn`t. I`d be interested in seeing proof of this allegation that met morning forecasts=ECM all the same.

well you come up with met eireann staffing rota as well then!

delw

munsterlegend wrote: »

that 12z GFS certainly has dampened the optimism somewhat! still early days and time for more westward shifts yet..maybe the ECM/UKMO will surprise us.

i wont be getting my hopes up

pistolpetes11

Lads there is nothing to be gained from this little exchange about Met Eireann , I suggest you leave it at that.

CrazyRabbit

Right....all you wonderfully knowledgeable weather geeks people, I have one question for you...

Will it snow on Friday in the Dublin area?

You see, I am months trying to import a motorbike, and I'm finally going to be able to collect it this Friday. And my family have been joking for months that "It'll snow the day you go to collect it", which I always just shrugged off. But now...

Nabber

Snow is garaunteed on Friday. Snowed in for sure.

You'll get your bike in mid May

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Lads there is nothing to be gained from this little exchange about Met Eireann , I suggest you leave it at that.

amazing the difference between the 06z and 12z.

TheMilkyPirate

I don't think there will be any more surprises with regards to this cold snap now, Milder weather by the week end looks highly likely to me although you have to remember that it isn't even february yet. So a few more chances for another go in a week or two.

Rebelbrowser

Ok, it may or may not be over by the weekend but we still have a good shot at snow during the week I'd have thought. All I want is snow to fall and lie for a full day thereafter. I'll take the present possibility of snow this week happily. If the cold spell gets lenghtened then better still......

screamer

Like my Gran used to say, a watched kettle never boils. Although, I did see some badgers 9 days ago, which usually means snow in 2 weeks.... so, that'd be Friday then, I'll hold onto some hope till then, after that, Winter has left the building.

cherryghost

Regardless of the downgrade, there's still snowfall possibilities on the cards over the next 4 days. Fear not, ladies and gentlemen!

cherryghost

I've been reliably informed that its snowing heavily on the west coast of France

pistolpetes11

Great Call from Su a few days ago on how this might play out ,

Su Campu wrote: »

For me, I am still against a proper easterly taking place, going on the ECMWF, UKMO and GFS northern hemispherical setup. The ECMWF and UKMO are fairly similar within their respective timeframes, showing fairly zonal conditions over North America slightly amplifying over the next few days, forming a low near Iceland that pumps high geopotential northwards towards the Norwegian Sea. This acts to sustain the Scandinavian high for a brief period, but the supply shuts off fairly quickly and a more zonal setup takes its place, dismantling the Scandi high somewhat.

The GFS is similar to a point but then does what it has a tendency to do - overdoes the amplification over North America, which holds the low pressure further west and allows the warm supply to continue for longer and building the High further west. This both holds its strength and also brings the cold over us. I don't think this will happen as the GFS is known for overdoing cold outbreaks.

As I've been saying, I reckon we will see some brief cold, but will see zonality win out.

ZX7R

CrazyRabbit wrote: »

Right....all you wonderfully knowledgeable weather geeks people, I have one question for you...

Will it snow on Friday in the Dublin area?

You see, I am months trying to import a motorbike, and I'm finally going to be able to collect it this Friday. And my family have been joking for months that "It'll snow the day you go to collect it", which I always just shrugged off. But now...

I would take a bike trailer with you ,good chance there be snow or ice:cool:

NIALL D

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Great Call from Su a few days ago on how this might play out ,

still nothing set in stone though , its not definate that cold wont arrive and it will be milder next weekend , anything could happen yet !!!

pistolpetes11

NIALL D wrote: »

still nothing set in stone though , its not definate that cold wont arrive and it will be milder next weekend , anything could happen yet !!!

Sorry it was a moment of weakness on my part :pac::pac::pac:

One thing that strikes me is that if you read the METO UK outlook today , its goes against there latest model guidance.

Sponge Bob

Only certainty is another gfs run @ 9.40 or so

patneve2

Looks as if Su Campu will be having the last laugh

edit: but not 100% sure yet obviously

motherelements

Hi all,

My name is motherelements and I fascinated by the weather...but I a little unconventional. I believe I am a seer... I can feel the weather and I dream it. I see no snow... cold yes but no snow apart the high mountains. I feel it in me that the warmer air wil be back in a few days.

ZX7R

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Sorry it was a moment of weakness on my part :pac::pac::pac:

One thing that strikes me is that if you read the METO UK outlook today , its goes against there latest model guidance.

Even the moderators are getting twichie...:):):)

aboyro

welcome back sean:D

pistolpetes11

Rite Im off for a few hours ,

Hopefully the ECM is kind to us , dont be overly disheartened if its is not

Keep in mind what MT said this morning:

DM2 and others, I see the model disparity as being caused by some kind of different processing of boundary layer issues as the arctic front moves west across Baltic regions. Since models don't think but just perform iterations, no living entity is actually thinking this, but to my eye the GFS is "thinking" that the extreme cold will create a thermal low and accelerate the westward motion of the cold air -- the Jan 1987 event had this look to it -- and perhaps the ECM and UKMO output has downplayed that aspect and therefore is more conservative in result (especially for Ireland, can't say that for southeast England there would be a huge difference).


Enjoy folks

Kippure

The models are pointless past 90 hours are so. There swinging wildly. :rolleyes:

Theres no agreement at all.

They just cant handle this huge cold block.

Very interesting weather this week.:)

Joe Public

motherelements wrote: »

Hi all,

My name is motherelements and I fascinated by the weather...but I a little unconventional. I believe I am a seer... I can feel the weather and I dream it. I see no snow... cold yes but no snow apart the high mountains. I feel it in me that the warmer air wil be back in a few days.

You are just in time for the February forecast contest:-

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76803988#post76803988


Many of the posters here base their forecast on science so don't feel left out if you detect a bit of scepticism ( me included ). You could have a go at the monthly forecast competition and hope to win us over.

dermiek

motherelements wrote: »

Hi all,

My name is motherelements and I fascinated by the weather...but I a little unconventional. I believe I am a seer... I can feel the weather and I dream it. I see no snow... cold yes but no snow apart the high mountains. I feel it in me that the warmer air wil be back in a few days.

Whatever you're smoking there motherelements, can you put some in an envelope and leave it at the front desk for me?

:pac::pac::pac: