Possible Cold Reload

lostinashford

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Steady as she goes for sustained cold pattern dominating February - subtle nuances with an attempted breakdown, surface cold, reload easterly and then northerly ?

Don't understand most of that but think I like it:D

Yahew

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

mcriot29

Yahew wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

The models dont go along with any view of the east winds back any time soon, i think we should be worrying about the next few days frist we have a good chance of snow this week, if only the cold air would come more west

Sponge Bob

lostinashford wrote: »

Don't understand most of that but think I like it:D

Siberian Blast, Atlantic Fartback, More of the Siberian Blast and maybe a Polar Low !

opr

18z looking better so far. Fingers crossed!

Opr

blackius

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yahew wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Further to that,It would appear,confidence by the UKMO in their model output is low tonight..that is confidence in a progressive atlantic.

Ian Ferguson has been doing some interesting tweets!

Amongst the hints he's given is what some of us are thinking anyway ,that the winds from the East will be back almost as fast as they leave!

Read for yourselves

https://twitter.com/#!/fergieweather

He's a fairly knowledgeable chap.

The models dont go along with any view of the east winds back any time soon, i think we should be worrying about the next few days frist we have a good chance of snow this week, if only the cold air would come more west

Ah come on now...thats a sweeping statement..you and I don't know what's going to happen post 120hrs and neither do forecasters.
Some are making interesting cases for a new Scandinavian block forming better oriented.
The bitter cold will still be nearby ready to be tapped if that happens.
There's no reason for too much pessimism ...onwards and upwards!

kittyn

I have to say, with my novice experience mind you........ The models aqre flipping so much, that there is something happening that none of the models can get to grips off. No idea what that is but im hoping its going to be something good........

Trotter

Its odd though, the precip charts would lead me to believe that it'll be blue skies and freezing cold.. unless Im getting it totally wrong. Here in Waterford, we may well be relying on the Irish Sea streamers coming in to visit.

lostinashford

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Siberian Blast, Atlantic Fartback, More of the Siberian Blast and maybe a Polar Low !

That's sounds like weather porn talk to me - I like it

aboyro

Trotter wrote: »

Its odd though, the precip charts would lead me to believe that it'll be blue skies and freezing cold.. unless Im getting it totally wrong. Here in Waterford, we may well be relying on the Irish Sea streamers coming in to visit.

totally agree, we need a seriously special list of events for significant snowfall here. good strong east wind always helps:D

Eastcoastryan

blackius wrote: »

Ah come on now...thats a sweeping statement..you and I don't know what's going to happen post 120hrs and neither do forecasters.
Some are making interesting cases for a new Scandinavian block forming better oriented.
The bitter cold will still be nearby ready to be tapped if that happens.
There's no reason for too much pessimism ...onwards and upwards!

Blackius, I was down your neck of the woods yesterday, I did the Radio Show from The Bridgewater! Quick question... are you still as confident as you were of even a few snow showers over the next few days? RTE Weather earlier had pretty much nothing, are they generally cautious??

Musicman2000

aboyro wrote: »

totally agree, we need a seriously special list of events for significant snowfall here. good strong east wind always helps:D

Would be dry and cold maybe an odd flurry but nothing major.

Lucreto

Sponge Bob

The weather forecast on Radio 1 at 5:55pm mentioned some small snow showers in 'Eastern Coastal' areas over the next few days. If that is what Blackius said then Met Éireann concur.

I didn't see Evelyn mention this possibility.

blackius

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Blackius, I was down your neck of the woods yesterday, I did the Radio Show from The Bridgewater! Quick question... are you still as confident as you were of even a few snow showers over the next few days? RTE Weather earlier had pretty much nothing, are they generally cautious??

Yes its likely that there will be at least some flurries or light snow showers on the east coast tomorrow through to Friday.Hit and miss,some seeing nothing,others seeing a good shower.
Tbh though something more significant is possible but we just don't know.
Ah bridgewater..know it well.
Must drop in to say hello at some stage next time you're down.

Don't take any forecast beyond 48hrs as Gospel on rte yet by the way-too much model uncertainty

TheMilkyPirate

Joe b highlighting just how serious the cold coming into europe is.

"Dark days for Europe as arctic attack liable to bring back memories of Dec 2010.... should last into March"

Interesting that he says it will last into march, Even more optimism for the possibility of a serious reload in a week or two's time.

Musicman2000

Weathercheck wrote: »

UKM Fax chart is really a bold call.

The 18z GFS Ensembles are very very different.

I think they are all in shock over on Netweather at the fax charts:D

yorlum11

Joe Bastardi via twitter:Dark days for Europe as arctic attack liable to bring back memories of Dec 2010.... should last into March

whataboutnow

Su Campu wrote: »

I would imagine the south and southeast coasts will see the best of any flurries that do form over the next few days. Relatively warm upper levels will prevent deep convection, and although we will see vigorous low level convection, the drier airmass may preclude widespread showers. Those that do form should extend to around 12-15,000 ft. With the larger sea track in the east/southeasterly flow, areas from say Cork to Wexford should see the heaviest. Wales may get in the way for much of the east, but maybe northern Irish Sea coasts will see something.

Hi,how do your rate eastern inland donegal's chances of seeing snow,you seem the most accurate as far as predicting this cold snap thus far
cheers

Sponge Bob

Bastardi is nearly as tiresome as Vogan.

Have a UK Fax @ 96h

jo06555

so we won't get snowy conditions as their is no moisture in the westerly Atlantic front ??? Can that change as id love a dusting of white stuff .......

TheMilkyPirate

He's right though, The continent are in for some serious cold.

jirafa

motherelements wrote: »

Hi all,

My name is motherelements and I fascinated by the weather...but I a little unconventional. I believe I am a seer... I can feel the weather and I dream it. I see no snow... cold yes but no snow apart the high mountains. I feel it in me that the warmer air wil be back in a few days.

Did you also go under the name motherknowsall,,,who used the IWO chatroom to warn us all of of wind storms, to end all windstorms on many occasions,,,only for them, never to arrive ...:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Bastardi is nearly as tiresome as Vogan.

Have a UK Fax @ 96h

A horror show is what that is bob ,

Although I think I'm correct in saying the only support it has is from its own raw data.

Think il hit the hay it's been a emotional day of model following :pac:

hotwhiskey

Taking from Meteo windchill for Saturday. France no words needed.

Sponge Bob

baraca wrote: »

He's right though,

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

Vogan <snip>, even I outforecasted him at christmas and Sponge Bob ain't no good as a forecaster.

Calibos

Not that I think MT is infallible or anything nor am I doubting what some posters have said here but just this morning MT was talking about a possibility of explosive convection 20-40cm of snow from parts of Wicklow to Meath and Ulster from a SE flow. Has he forgotten about the Wales Shadow or something?

yorlum11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

He's right though,

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

Vogan is a complete moron, even I outforecasted him at christmas and Sponge Bob ain't no good as a forecaster.

Give sone credit to big Joe lol Vogan is a fruitcake.Bastardi usually over cooks things!!

TheMilkyPirate

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Bastardi is basically right after being basically wrong about Europe since November. Whoop de doo like.

I was using his tweet to highlight the fact that we could get another shot at cold such is the depth of it on the continent, I don't rate Joe b and i didn't imply that.

<snip>

Trogdor

Calibos wrote: »

Not that I think MT is infallible or anything nor am I doubting what some posters have said here but just this morning MT was talking about a possibility of explosive convection 20-40cm of snow from parts of Wicklow to Meath and Ulster from a SE flow. Has he forgotten about the Wales Shadow or something?

Don't really see the problem with streamer potential on the wind direction currently forecast, obviously it really opens up potential for the South coast compared to a North-Easterly but i don't see it hampering the East coast that much. Made a quick illustration below. The sea track on a South-Easterly (For Dublin) is only a bit shorter than a North-Easterly and you can see that in a S-SE flow the potential sea track is actually much longer than in a NE flow.