beef price tracker

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Yes I have reading the horoscope and counting the stars. I gave up counting the nations cattle. And the price will come up in October. Just as cattle are coming off the land. The traditional time for a price rise in! Er whoops no that doesn't make sense does it!

But the factory's count them. Big difference between winter finishers and summer grazers, If July this year was December and now was January with the numbers and outlook winter finishers would pushing the price by 10c/kg a week.

Loo you can always sell cattle just sell those about to go over age. I am coming to the opinion that even thought the kill will remain low just because farmers keep throwing them in and accept the factory price we may not get a rise. But lads accepting that the factory's can pull when they like( and I know they can mess around a lot) is not helping either. From next week on factory's have to kill for UK and French school contracts, People will all be back to work from Sept 1st on. Any slight disruption in supply will cause issue for processors as chills are empty.

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

But the factory's count them. Big difference between winter finishers and summer grazers, If July this year was December and now was January with the numbers and outlook winter finishers would pushing the price by 10c/kg a week.

Loo you can always sell cattle just sell those about to go over age. I am coming to the opinion that even thought the kill will remain low just because farmers keep throwing them in and accept the factory price we may not get a rise. But lads accepting that the factory's can pull when they like( and I know they can mess around a lot) is not helping either. From next week on factory's have to kill for UK and French school contracts, People will all be back to work from Sept 1st on. Any slight disruption in supply will cause issue for processors as chills are empty.

They are going to settle at 3.60 the word is. I'm glad you are starting to see sense.
Lads harping about a rise as the price is falling and heading into the fall of the year.. You'll get a rise mid nov. After cattle are housed. But only to the region of bringing it back to pre autumn prices. Lads have to get real.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

They are going to settle at 3.60 the word is. I'm glad you are starting to see sense.
Lads harping about a rise as the price is falling and heading into the fall of the year.. You'll get a rise mid nov. After cattle are housed. But only to the region of bringing it back to pre autumn prices. Lads have to get real.

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.

Like I said if the same numbers were in the finishing situation the price would be 4+. IMO at some from now on the factory's will lose control due to numbers. There is a provisio that we do not get a really early winter.

Cattle numbers will tighten the last week in july we killed 1K head more than 2013. Last week would have been the same. Traditionall the processors use bank holiday weeks to control kill last week was no different.

My opinion is that young cattle will come fit in November but cattle will get tight at some stage from now to then.

The one thing I have learned as the calculator never lies. If you sit in a mart and do you sums when buying cattle you know when you buy right and wrong, you know when you are paying too much for meal or fertlizer. Just like a lot of us know that the sums on winter finishing is not adding up.

It is the same with cattle numbers at present we as farmers should be in control we are ceeding it to the processors because it is tradition that cattle supply's increase from now on

sandydan

i think i have to agree with Farmer Pudsey on this one Russian market is gone since June officially so whats changed since just spin, what could influence but may not is price drop for dairy products sending young cows into factory for slaughter instead of inseminating in Dec if not held in calf for spring calving a certain percentage fall into this bracket every year anyway. but if milk price drops significantly and with over quota situation at moment dairymen might just take this option and add to supply in autumn rather than after Xmas ,

sandydan

dzer2 wrote: »

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

i have one gale knocked 2 yrs ago he can take it away and reassemble, can his goood deed for environment:D

Farmer Pudsey

dzer2 wrote: »

He is looking for a lot of sheds at the moment

I think trying to get farmers to finish cattle this winter will be extremely hard. Too much money lost last winter. Usually at some stage of a winter finisher make money either at Christmas, with the early winter cattle, during March/April when the majority come on stream or with the May/June cattle out of the shed.

Last winter finishers lost money on all cattle all winter long. Some will have sustained losses of 50 and more/head. This is right across lads that did 20 or 30 to lads that did few hundred. Larry's biggest problem is the lads that do the small amounts. Something like 50% of the winter kill comes from lads killing 20 or 30 out of the shed with a load of small finishers even kill one pen of cattle. These are irreplaceable. The lads that land in with 2 or 3 in a trailer 4 or 5 times during the winter or the lad that has a pen of cattle in February. The other thing is for loads of dairy lads that finish cattle it must be tempting to keep a few extra cows instead of the two pens of bullocks.

If Larry wanted my shed will I rent it to him. Yes I might but he will have to pay someone to feed for him I will not. However my inclination is to let the processors stew this winter.

TUBBY

No finishing out of shed here this winter. Meal lorry wont have to worry about me. Think a lot will be in same boat-why spend your time and money finishing cattle for the factory with no idea how price will be in feb or mar. The seasonal rise to cover winter costs never came last year so would be foolish to presume different.

Miname

TUBBY wrote: »

No finishing out of shed here this winter. Meal lorry wont have to worry about me. Think a lot will be in same boat-why spend your time and money finishing cattle for the factory with no idea how price will be in feb or mar. The seasonal rise to cover winter costs never came last year so would be foolish to presume different.[/QUOTE

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.


Autumn price last year was 40 to 60 cent down on spring price.
And Fianna Fáil used to accuse people of talking down the economy.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It is not about seeing sense cattle supplies are tight but we as farmers are leaving the factory's control the price, The cattle kill will be no higher than last year. This time last year prices were slightly over 4/kg and 4/kg was the price all autumn long. We have lads Talking the price down just because traditionally the kill increased in autumn.


Autumn price last year was 40 to 60 cent down on spring price.
And Fianna Fáil used to accuse people of talking down the economy.

It was down compared to June price early May base for bulls and steers was 4.2/kg, autumn kill was 6k ahead of June and about 4k ahead of May. I got a base of 4/kg as late as November

Willfarman

Sorry il I should edit that to early summer price rather than spring but my point stands.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Sorry il I should edit that to early summer price rather than spring but my point stands.

It was down on June price however last year June kill was about 25K/week average, the autumn Kill was about 30K/week. This year the kill was 33K/week average for June the autumn kill will struggle to average 30K/week.

It has nothing to do with time of year it is a question of how strong/weak supply numbers are. Last year and the previous after June factory's were talking about a price of 3.5/kg neither year did it happen. This year farmers are ignoring supply numbers and failing to control supply and selling cattle too easily.

Willfarman

Farmers never have had or ever will have any means of trying to control the market. Reality. Autumn price is almost always less than June price.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Farmers never have had or ever will have any means of trying to control the market. Reality. Autumn price is almost always less than June price.

Traditionally the kill was always higher in the autumn that June this year it looks very much like it will not be.

Bill Clinton said one to a journalist after he question why Clinton was preforming weel in the polls before his predisential reelctions ''It the economy stupid''

In this case it a matter of numbers and a dryish autumn would help as well.

When numbers drop below 30K farmers have traditionally managed to rise prices.

However it is in the interest of those that sold early for prices to collapse so taht store will fall in price. However this year may be like 2012 it is not a year to be caught without cattle. The amount of store's around will be limited due to amount of calves exported in 2013 and the amount of weanlings that went to North Africs last winter

mf240

All the cattle that were squezzed instead of beingeft bulls will take and extra 6-12 months to finish as bullocks. This will leave a void at some stage.

mf240

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Traditionally the kill was always higher in the autumn that June this year it looks very much like it will not be.

Bill Clinton said one to a journalist after he question why Clinton was preforming weel in the polls before his predisential reelctions ''It the economy stupid''

In this case it a matter of numbers and a dryish autumn would help as well.

When numbers drop below 30K farmers have traditionally managed to rise prices.

However it is in the interest of those that sold early for prices to collapse so taht store will fall in price. However this year may be like 2012 it is not a year to be caught without cattle. The amount of store's around will be limited due to amount of calves exported in 2013 and the amount of weanlings that went to North Africs last winter

Dont forget about all the extra cattle that died in spring 2013.

Willfarman

Ha god you exhaust me, the price has dropped for next week.
They are pulling midweek. I say 3.60 wil be the price in 2 weeks time.
Might "rise" cough cough.. To 3.70 maybe 3.75 mid nov and that will be it til new year. That's my opinion. Enlighten me of your opinion if you like now

Miname

it'll be at 4 in october and maybe a bit above. all the numbers add up to a rise and prices will be manipulated enough so that lads will be tempted to fill a few pens around the sfp.

Farmer Pudsey

Willfarman wrote: »

Ha god you exhaust me, the price has dropped for next week.
They are pulling midweek. I say 3.60 wil be the price in 2 weeks time.
Might "rise" cough cough.. To 3.70 maybe 3.75 mid nov and that will be it til new year. That's my opinion. Enlighten me of your opinion if you like now

Miname wrote: »

it'll be at 4 in october and maybe a bit above. all the numbers add up to a rise and prices will be manipulated enough so that lads will be tempted to fill a few pens around the sfp.

It might turn faster than that Miname. Factory's looking for Cows and bulls and it is only Sunday evening. They are using Cows and Bulls to bulk out the kill for the last month. Local factory is struggling to find same. Agents ringing around actively during the day. Maybe it is only a local issue but it is strange to say the least with all the cattle that are supposed to be around.

We all forgot one thing with the end of quota's dairy farmers are under less pressure to cull this year. Lots have culled hard for last 3-4 years bringing young heifers into herd so less pressure this year to cull same.

Willfarman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

It might turn faster than that Miname. Factory's looking for Cows and bulls and it is only Sunday evening. They are using Cows and Bulls to bulk out the kill for the last month. Local factory is struggling to find same. Agents ringing around actively during the day. Maybe it is only a local issue but it is strange to say the least with all the cattle that are supposed to be around.

We all forgot one thing with the end of quota's dairy farmers are under less pressure to cull this year. Lots have culled hard for last 3-4 years bringing young heifers into herd so less pressure this year to cull same.

They are not looking for prime beef though. Bulls and cows are cheap beef. So 4 euro a kilo before October?:D

jt65

Willfarman wrote: »

They are not looking for prime beef though. Bulls and cows are cheap beef. So 4 euro a kilo before October?:D

exact same for sheep , cull ewes strong trade all year


cheap meat seems to be the order of the day

farmernewbie

Willfarman wrote: »

Are they nice shapes? Bullocks or heifers?

Bullocks, some decent but mainly average enough quality.

sandydan wrote: »

you could have got € 950-1000 at 370-400 kg a few weeks ago, certainly saw around 380 and 400 kg hit €1000 in mart
while at 500 kg they aren't making enough to pay cost difference imo ,i know those were hitting 22-24 mths but at that weight id push to 650 kg min to make reasonable price difference.

They will be around 22mths in November. Would be happy with anything over a €1000. They seem to be dear now not sure if that will hold.

Willfarman

farmernewbie wrote: »

Bullocks, some decent but mainly average enough quality.



They will be around 22mths in November. Would be happy with anything over a €1000. They seem to be dear now not sure if that will hold.

I would move them now.. You bought as best you could in the marketplace that was against you for the kind of stock you wanted..

I'm not sure what your estimating their weights but if they are 450kgs, and you did them well ayou won't be far under the 950 apiece after selling expenses. Fair middle of the road potential r grade cattle 400kgs up are bringing around 2.05 a kg last week.

farmernewbie

Willfarman wrote: »

I would move them now.. You bought as best you could in the marketplace that was against you for the kind of stock you wanted..

I'm not sure what your estimating their weights but if they are 450kgs, and you did them well ayou won't be far under the 950 apiece after selling expenses. Fair middle of the road potential r grade cattle 400kgs up are bringing around 2.05 a kg last week.

Not in a position to sell at the moment unfort, not sure if I will make the 500kg with them they didn't thrive too well the last month. Some fresh after grass for them next week. So will see how they are doing in 6 months.

Gman1987

jt65 wrote: »

exact same for sheep , cull ewes strong trade all year


cheap meat seems to be the order of the day

It can all look the same in the box!!

sandydan

farmernewbie wrote: »

Not in a position to sell at the moment unfort, not sure if I will make the 500kg with them they didn't thrive too well the last month. Some fresh after grass for them next week. So will see how they are doing in 6 months.

i thought 500 kg seemed to where price seemed to slide backward ,until you got them over 650 kg . i dont know why you say your not in position to sell now and its none of my business but id certainly try a few in mart cos i saw a few who brought up to 500kg+ and were bittery dissapointed that they had not sold sooner and that was compounded by seeing 400 kg come within 100 euro a few minutes after. i cant figure out why that 15 month old and 370-450 kg is making price they are.often wondered are factory feedlot behind it to cushion next year, as i said i saw Ch make €620+kg and it defies logic to me whos paying that , must be someone trying to do a little hedging to have supply to drive down prices next year and factories feedlot fits bill imo

Roundbale

Sold a blast of 28-29 month old cattle at the end of last week. Some heavy bullocks up between 830 - 860 kgs. Continentals reared from cows and finished on grass, no concentrates.

Got base of 3.70 for the bullocks, Most Rs and some U grades and no QA bonus for any over 400kg carcass, which was nearly all of them.

Heifers were 3.75 and some got QA with that, others over 400 didn't.

That you get nothing more for a U grade now and no QA over 400kgs is focking ridiculous.

Willfarman

Roundbale wrote: »

Sold a blast of 28-29 month old cattle at the end of last week. Some heavy bullocks up between 830 - 860 kgs. Continentals reared from cows and finished on grass, no concentrates.

Got base of 3.70 for the bullocks, Most Rs and some U grades and no QA bonus for any over 400kg carcass, which was nearly all of them.

Heifers were 3.75 and some got QA with that, others over 400 didn't.

That you get nothing more for a U grade now and no QA over 400kgs is focking ridiculous.

You had great cattle by sounds of it. Can I ask what factory? I personally don't have much hitting over 400 kgs under30 months. But I a fiend of mine had a few killed 2 weeks ago in slaney without any cut in QA.

MfMan

Roundbale wrote: »

Sold a blast of 28-29 month old cattle at the end of last week. Some heavy bullocks up between 830 - 860 kgs. Continentals reared from cows and finished on grass, no concentrates.

Got base of 3.70 for the bullocks, Most Rs and some U grades and no QA bonus for any over 400kg carcass, which was nearly all of them.

Heifers were 3.75 and some got QA with that, others over 400 didn't.

That you get nothing more for a U grade now and no QA over 400kgs is focking ridiculous.

Any harm to ask where did you go?

Cavanjack

Roundbale wrote: »

Sold a blast of 28-29 month old cattle at the end of last week. Some heavy bullocks up between 830 - 860 kgs. Continentals reared from cows and finished on grass, no concentrates.

Got base of 3.70 for the bullocks, Most Rs and some U grades and no QA bonus for any over 400kg carcass, which was nearly all of them.

Heifers were 3.75 and some got QA with that, others over 400 didn't.

That you get nothing more for a U grade now and no QA over 400kgs is focking ridiculous.

That is ridiculous. Any word if the IFA are going to do anything about this. Heard Eddie Downey saying at the weekend that the factories should be able to hold prices. This is a joke, they should be roaring for an increase in prices and QA paid to all QA cattle irrespective of age or weight.
When your only able to get 50cent/kilo more for prime animals than old o grade cows and the IFA thinks its ok then its time for lads to pull out of the IFA and the Quality Assurance. How many consumers (other than farmers) actually look at anything other than price on the package? If 50% of our beef goes to the UK will the consumer not buy it if Quality Assurance isn't on the pack? Doubt it.