Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Birdnuts

Very poor stuff from the models tonight, the jet is now so far North that we end up with a boring mild, cloudy high for the start of next month!! - looks like this January will be even more of a disappointment compared to last years sorry effort:(

PS: I'd love to know the rainfall stats for Britanny France - that poxy HP has been parked over it for more then a month now!!

darkman2

It's premature to say "it's over" when it clearly isn't. Quite a few nice ensemble members in the GFS set. There is alot of uncertainty past 144hrs. It is almost certain the Azores high will link with the Scandinavian high but beyond that is guess work. Looking forward to the snowmageddon charts tomorrow - on second thoughts maybe not:D

darkman2

BEASTERLY wrote: »

And now the GFS falls in line with the ECM, game over folks!


:pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

Sponge Bob

darkman2 wrote: »

It's premature to say "it's over" when it clearly isn't.

Is isn't over....but it isn't quite on either. Europe is settling into a widespread cold spell unlike the last 2-3 months but the models are flip flopping on sharing that westwards.

I can predict they will dramatically flip and flop some more over the course of the week, the Atlantic has lost the oomph it had over the christmas and new year.

Redsunset

I agree, tis not over, however in all fairness it don't look too good either.
Nothing really becoming concrete. All possibilities keep getting the boot. Is it just me or does this month feel awfully long?
That's what looking for the Snow Ghost does to ya I suppose:D

nacho libre

GP over on netweather still seems optimistic.

"Still looking east Nick. The ensemble mean products are still very keen on troughing over much of southern and eastern Europe, allied to strong positive height anomalies within the huge ridge covering much of Asia extending into Svalbard and Scandinavia.

The GFS products have trended to relax both AO and NAO from current negative values, which is a good indication of just enough residual flow to the north to keep the ridge in check from a full on retrogression towards southern Greenland (although ultimately this will come). Like waves on a beach, the AO in particular may be relaxing before the next pulse coming down from the stratosphere hits around 7th Feb.

We seem to be in that strange situation where cold continental air seeps westward under the ridge extending over the top of us. Any unexpected breaks in the longwave flow would of course pull the colder air westward faster."

Sponge Bob

redsunset wrote: »

That's what looking for the Snow Ghost does to ya I suppose:D

Well you should look for Snow Ghost because Snow Ghost ain't posted here since Baraca sent him/her out of their house with a camera...in the pitch dark and in a force 12

Harps

Busy all day again so only had a quick glance at the 18z GFS all day, looks like the seemingly endless spell of boredom keeps chugging on for another week. Thursday could possibly have some noticeable weather but that aside there's little to bother talking about!

force eleven

Hopefully February can produce something because January is now consigned to the bin. Must be one of the mildest in years. Somewhere along the line we'll get a shock - just how cold and how long it lasts remain unknown.

kstand

Any word from that postman in Donegal recently? He's the only one that seems to be able to predict the weather beyond a week or ten days.

Rebelbrowser

Just judging from the posts over on netweather it seems like the models have come around overnight (again) and we are back at 50/50 on this. Looks like if its gonna get cold then the cooling will start from this day week with the back end of next week being the potential cold spell. Apparently this all turns on the northern arm of the jet and a short wave near Denmark next Saturday. No idea what that actually means though! Perhaps someone knowledgeable (or simply not scientifically challenged like I) could explain......

Personally, if there isn't a cold spell starting in the week from 30 Jan to 6 Feb (and we will know in the next few days) I will have lost all interest.

That said, subject to correction, a cold spell in the following week (and with the cold pool on our doorstep its very possible) would correspond to that old thing about Buchan's Cold Spells. I remember the first two decent snowfalls to happen at an age when I actually watched weather forecasts on telly came on 11 Jan 1987 and 7 Feb 1991 both of which were Buchan's Cold Spell periods and I remember Brendan McWilliams pointing that out at the time. Always watched out for this ever since........

Elmer Blooker

kstand wrote: »

Any word from that postman in Donegal recently? He's the only one that seems to be able to predict the weather beyond a week or ten days.

Really?
No one pays any attention to me around here - the ONLY one who got this winter 100% correct.:pac:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953

Diamond Dust

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Really?
No one pays any attention to me around here - the ONLY one who got this winter 100% correct.:pac:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=76156953

Maybe because you have praised yourself a 100 times already

Elmer Blooker

Yeah, I'm not one the "experts" around here and I know I'm not very popular!
V

Diamond Dust

@Elmer Blooker : Fair play to you for getting it right, popular or not. It's just I've see you link it so many times I had to say something.

What's your views on this possible cold spell that keeps getting pushed out?

Rebelbrowser

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yeah, I'm not one the "experts" around here and I know I'm not very popular!
V

Just read that now. Making predictions like that on Christmas Eve, it would be no wonder if you weren't popular! You might as well have gone into my 4 year old that day and said, "Son, there's something you need to know about this Santa guy...."!

Anyone, back on topic. Any informed views on the models this morning?

Ahorseofaman

[QUOTE=Rebelbrowser;
Any informed views on the models this morning?[/QUOTE]

Much colder air continues to lurk off to the east of the North Sea (on all model runs) and we can't rule out a visit from winter at some point but an aggressive push west is not shown in any of the models at this point.

(from MTC this morning)

200motels

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

Much colder air continues to lurk off to the east of the North Sea (on all model runs) and we can't rule out a visit from winter at some point but an aggressive push west is not shown in any of the models at this point.

(from MTC this morning)

I think MT has got a lot wrong this winter and his forecasts lately have been all over the place but he's not alone as the models can't get to grips with anything over 3 days out, the Met Office in the UK can't get to grips with any forecast, as for M.E. well they are so wrong at times it seems as if they are making it up as they go a long, improvisation springs to mind.

Nabber

We are not to far away from an Easterly on the models some of the models. But we have been here so many times this winter.

Sponge Bob

Nabber wrote: »

We are not to far away from an Easterly on the models some of the models. But we have been here so many times this winter.

MTs winter forecast was and remains pretty good overall.

I think the prospect of an easterly, fed from a cold continent, is very recent...last two weeks really. Had we an easterly around the new year it would have come from a rather wet and certainly not frozen Moscow...rather little use as easterlies go.

So the prospect of an easterly( or north easterly) has become realistic whether the models can give us one on a consistent basis is a perennial question of course. :cool:

Nabber

Sponge Bob wrote: »

So the prospect of an easterly( or north easterly) has become realistic whether the models can give us one on a consistent basis is a perennial question of course. :cool:

Oh they have no problem there... Just try and get them to give us one that is less than +144hrs, therein lies one of our many problems.

If we could get similar high pressure systems we have been having all winter to hold off till the summer, this winter will be forgotten with a smile.

dsmythy

Has this thread ran it's course? Not saying it could get cold in the timeframe the thread was made for but there's nothing pointing to it at all.

Joe Public

dsmythy wrote: »

Has this thread ran it's course? Not saying it could get cold in the timeframe the thread was made for but there's nothing pointing to it at all.

Far too early to be cynical, don't forget February is longer this year:)

Sponge Bob

Joe Public wrote: »

Far too early to be cynical

Damn right Joe, here is a reminder of what Calling a February wrong can do.

Gonzo

despite continued dissapointments and cold weather being pushed back yet again into February, I still hope for a few days of snow in February. I think there are 3 reasons why most people are just losing interest in this winter so fast at this stage.

1. we were spoilt past 3 winters with several excellent snow spells so this winter was never really gonna live up to last year but I did not think things would stay this mild for so long. It's becoming increasingly difficult to remain confident as we enter the final segment of proper winter.

2. this winter seems even worse because even in the crap winters we would have had by now a few short blasts of cold delivering small amounts of snow locally, but this winter nothing has fallen in many areas.

3. There seems nothing exciting on the cards for the next week at least which leaves us with just 4 weeks of a winter window left. Sure it can snow loads in March but is inclined to melt much faster by then, March cold spells just never seen to live up to what can happen during December, January and February with the right ingredients.

cherryghost

New GFS run has the easterly back in line so far.... lets see how the rest run out.

pistolpetes11

Enderman wrote: »

New GFS run has the easterly back in line so far.... lets see how the rest run out.

HAHA there calling it epic over on Netweather and looking to bank it ,

Prozac at the ready , its been up down up down up down the last few weeks

premiercad

There is a real battle on our hands here,

Thursday looks a mixed bag as regards our traditional mixed wintery showers (NW flow), but there is a serious battle going on between the east and west on the models.

GFS just has us right on the edge!

DOCARCH

12z GFS looking lovely at 192 hours! Nice little dump for the east coast. But, too far away to get too excited. :rolleyes:

Harps

Netweather is always a good read after a run like that

The models are at least a bit interesting today, more so for the UK but a step in the right direction anyway. All meaningless of course being over a week away but at least its something to look at again