This Winter, Dec08-Feb09 is coldest since....

Mothman · 10-02-2009 12:15am #1

Possibly 1963.....for some locations.
This is going with the mean of this month to date which is quite low and may rise.

The Dec/Jan period was generally coldest for more than 10years and now that the first 8 days of Feb are even colder, its likely that this winter will be coldest for much of the country since at least 1991 and probably 1979.

Overall mean for Belmullet, Birr, Casement, Cork AP, Dublin AP, Mullingar, Malin Head, Valentia and Shannon

Dec08/Jan09 5.2C Coldest since 2001

Individual stations
Belmullet 6.3C Coldest since 2001
Birr 4.4C 1997
Casement 4.2C 1991
Cork AP 5.2C 1997
Dublin AP 4.4C 1997
Mullingar 3.8C 1991
Malin Head 5.7C 2001
Shannon 5.5C 1997
Valentia 7.7C 2003

Now I'll do the same figures but include the Feb mean to date which is 2.2C overall.

Dec08/Feb09 4.2C Which would be coldest since 1979

Individual stations
Belmullet 5.4C Would be coldest since 1987
Birr 3.5C 1979
Casement 3.0C Assume 1963, station opened 1964
Cork AP 4.0C 1963
Dublin AP 3.3C 1963
Mullingar 2.9C 1979
Malin Head 4.8C 1986
Shannon 4.5C 1979
Valentia 6.4C 1991

Still nearly 3 weeks to go, but even if Feb did end up 2C warmer it would still be coldest winter since 1991 across most of country.

I intend to update this in a week. Will be half way through the month then and will have a better idea of outlook till months end and particularly if the general cold theme will continue till months end

Thankfully my supply of fuel is holding out well.

nacho libre · 10-02-2009 12:42am

the eagle(John Eagelton) in a recent forecast mentioned that it was the coldest winter in many place since the early 60s. too bad we don't have a snow event on the scale of 1963 to show for it.

Mothman · 10-02-2009 9:25am

nacho libre wrote: »

the eagle(John Eagelton) in a recent forecast mentioned that it was the coldest winter in many place since the early 60s. too bad we don't have a snow event on the scale of 1963 to show for it.

Winter far from over yet....too ealry to write it off.
I realise the past week has been mainly an eastern affair and on the whole you missed out, most of us are more than happy with the snow event we 've just had.

Back to how Feb will fair out temperature wise, a big factor will be how clear the nights are. Clear nights = temps well below zero with means staying as they are, cloudy nights = temps staying above zero with means rising.

ardmacha · 10-02-2009 11:33am

Several TV commentators said it was the coldest winter on the East coast for "30 years". I don't see how it can be colder than '82 when it was -19C at night and didn't get above freezing for a week. Perhaps it is 27 years rounded off to the nearest decade.

mike65 · 10-02-2009 1:08pm

There is a big difference between lowest temp achieved and the mean temp.

Mobhi1 · 10-02-2009 1:09pm

ardmacha wrote: »

Several TV commentators said it was the coldest winter on the East coast for "30 years". I don't see how it can be colder than '82 when it was -19C at night and didn't get above freezing for a week. Perhaps it is 27 years rounded off to the nearest decade.

'82 was a cold couple of weeks but I can't remember what the rest of the winter was like - must have been milder overall.

10-02-2009 1:10pm

I think they may be going on average temperatures rather than extremes ardmhaca.

This winter is cold yes but in a different way to more memorable snowy colds.
For instance if you take a starting point from last october,we must be nearing or surpassing some kind of record in terms of the number of recorded frosts-mothman will clarify that.
You can have very frosty mornings but daytime air temps and dewpoints too high for snpw and still have a record cold winter [for what it's worth in excitement value].

December '81 was a fabulous snowy cold month and jan '82 was more than likely one of the biggest snowfall events [in the East] in this country.
However after that snow was gone the rest of that winter was mild iirc.

This winter by comparison has delivered way less in terms of snow and a lot of frost followed by coolish days.
I know which winter I'd have preferred.

Mothman · 10-02-2009 9:12pm

ardmacha wrote: »

Several TV commentators said it was the coldest winter on the East coast for "30 years". I don't see how it can be colder than '82 when it was -19C at night and didn't get above freezing for a week. Perhaps it is 27 years rounded off to the nearest decade.

We all use different parameters to gauge how relatively cold this season is compared to others.
I just go by statistics because this is what I'm interested in, others by amount of snow, others by how cold a part of the season is. Latter 2 is no less valid as a viewpoint.
This thread ia about overall mean and when you hear of myself or meteorologists talking about how cold or warm, it is usually in reference to overall mean. But the overall mean can hide a lot of particular events such as Dec 81/Jan 82 and the week you mention. These 2 months were much colder (4.4C vs 5.2C) than the 2 months just gone by, but were followed by a mild February that brought the overall mean up a lot.

We haven't had extremes of cold this winter. What has been noticeable is the lack of lengthy mild periods. The 3rd week in Dec and 2nd week in Jan were mild, but the rest of the time has been frosty often with low maxes.

Do date I've recorded 59 grass frosts and 27 air frosts this winter. These are both most in my records (air 1999, grass 2002) and there are more than 2 weeks to go.

Min · 12-02-2009 12:59am

Its a pity the Kilkenny weather station was closed down as it use to be one of the coldest places in winter and warmest in summer.

The last of the snow I think will be gone tomorrow here.....

I hope winter is over, would love an early spring.

nacho libre · 12-02-2009 1:10pm

I hope its not. Spring can wait a while as far as i'm concerned. I'm hoping the end of February brings us some more snow.

Gonzo · 12-02-2009 2:23pm

ive a feelin something big may still happen in March but may only last 3 days or so. One of the biggest snowfalls I can remember in my lifetime happened here in April many years ago, it was very short lived but it was very impressive.

Mobhi1 · 12-02-2009 2:25pm

Another few weeks of proper winter - frost, snow and sun - would be nice - not this usual mild dull, drizzly stuff that we seem to be going back to - followed by nice spring weather and warm, sunny summer weather. Not too much to ask for, is it?

Duiske · 12-02-2009 3:51pm

Min wrote: »

.

I hope winter is over, would love an early spring.

I think the weather gods heard your call

Over the weekend it will still be rather cloudy but the days next week should be much brighter, with a hint of early Spring about them.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Mobhi1 · 12-02-2009 4:13pm

Can pretty much see the change already. Pretty strong divide(warm front) between here and Britain - much warmer over here now - really sticks out when you look at DPs. Over there apart from the west coast they are still all sub-zero while over here they are already above +5!

Mothman · 14-02-2009 12:21am

Particularly with the mild nights the feb mean is rising quite quickly and the final answer to thread title is looking likely to be 1991 but 2001 is not out of the reckoning!
I'll give update in couple days on the overall picture.

Further to Dec and Jan, the following is breakdown of coldest since for each station for each month and coldest since 1958 and year

Dec 08
Belmullet 6.7C Coldest since 2002 4.1C 1981
Birr 4.5C 2001 2.8 1976
Casement 4.1C 1981 2.7 1981
Cork AP 5.5C 1996 3.8 1976
Dublin AP 4.4C 1996 3.2 1981
Mullingar 4.1C 1996 1.8 1981
Malin Head 6.0C 1999 3.7 1981
Shannon 5.7C 1996 3.7 1976
Valentia 8.0C 2002 5.2 1976

Jan 09
Belmullet 5.9C Coldest since 2001 1.3 1963
Birr 4.3C 2001 -0.4 1963
Casement 4.2C 2001 1.8 1979 Station opened in 1964
Cork AP 4.8C 2001 0.8 1963
Dublin AP 4.3C 2001 0.9 1963
Mullingar 3.5C 2001 -0.6 1963
Malin Head 5.3C 2001 2.5 1963
Shannon 5.3C 2001 -0.3 1963
Valentia 7.3C 2003 2.6 1963

Stats from CSO
and recent monthly figures and 61-90 means from Met Eireann

Mothman · 15-02-2009 12:25pm

Middle of month update, but kind of pointless because the mean is rising so much at moment.
The Feb mean to date (14th) which is 3.6C overall for the 9 stations listed below. If this current weather continued to months end, the mean may end up in the region of 5.3C though I predict it'll be between 4.5C and 5C.

Taking the current 3.6C
Dec08/Feb09 4.7C Which would be coldest since 1991 (4.6C)

Individual stations as of 14th Feb
Belmullet 5.8C Would be coldest since 2001
Birr 4.0C 1991
Casement 3.5C Assume 1979
Cork AP 4.6C 1991
Dublin AP 3.8C 1963
Mullingar 3.4C 1991
Malin Head 5.2C 1994
Shannon 5.0C 1991
Valentia 7.0C 2001

On a related note, when were the warmest winters overall for the 9 stations? Probably last 10 years you may think and certainly not the 80s.

Below are winters (since 1964) where the overall mean is above 7C
1988/89 7.7C
1974/75 7.3C
1997/98 7.2C
2000s not represented!

Probably deserves a thread of its own

200motels · 21-02-2009 11:26am

nacho libre wrote: »

the eagle(John Eagleton) in a recent forecast mentioned that it was the coldest winter in many place since the early 60s. too bad we don't have a snow event on the scale of 1963 to show for it.

Yeah maybe so for other parts but here in Waterford it's not being that cold.

Mothman · 22-02-2009 10:22am

Last week has been generally mild. The mean for Feb has risen substantionally and will rise rise during the last week. This may well bring this winter to above the 2000/01 winter mean

Overall mean for Feb is 4.7C, up 1.1C during past week. Winter mean up to 5.0C.

I'll do figures for each of the 9 stations at months end.

Mothman · 01-03-2009 2:40pm

Final answer

2001

Feb mean for the nine stations combined 5.7C coldest since 2005

Winter Dec, Jan, Feb
Individual stations
Belmullet 6.5C coldest since 2005
Birr 4.7C 1996
Casement 4.4C 1991
Cork AP 5.2C 1991
Dublin AP 4.6C 2001
Mullingar 4.2C 2001
Malin Head 5.9C 2001
Shannon 5.6C 1996
Valentia 7.5C 2001

Feb
Individual stations
Belmullet 6.8C coldest since 2003
Birr 5.2C 2006
Casement 4.8C 2006
Cork AP 5.2C 2005
Dublin AP 5.1C 2006
Mullingar 4.9C 2006
Malin Head 6.9C 2006
Shannon 5.9C 2006
Valentia 7.1C 2005

As for my own stats since Nov 99.
Winter
Overall mean 5.1C, next lowest 2001 5.5C
Dec 5.1C Lowest on record
Jan 4.4C Lowest on record
Feb 5.7C coldest since 2003

This Winter, Dec08-Feb09 is coldest since....

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