Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

premiercad

Any of the more experienced weather folk like to comment on the latest run and in particular the mix of showers forecast for thursday? At least it's only 60 hrs away?? is this a high level 150m amsl + event?

Su Campu

Did I miss the memo on this forum becoming one for quoting every post that appears on netweather? That seems to be the only content that gets posted here anymore.

Regarding Thursday, I haven't seen any of today's model runs but last night they were hinting at our usual marginal setup, with sleet at sea level and snow around 100 m+. Not sure what the hirlam is saying now, will check later.

NeVeR

premiercad wrote: »

There is a real battle on our hands here,

Thursday looks a mixed bag as regards our traditional mixed wintery showers (NW flow), but there is a serious battle going on between the east and west on the models.

GFS just has us right on the edge!

Is this image saying we'll be going close to -8 next week ?

bb1234567

I didnt think this winter had been that mild so far, but apparently heading to be one of the mildest winters since records began over 350 years ago:eek:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/9032011/Balmy-winter-is-one-of-the-mildest-ever.html

Sponge Bob

In the UK perhaps it is. But here it is around 1 in 5 year to 1 in 7 year scale mild but by no means a record..and that is since the 1st of December. See the last broadly comparable winter here.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/winter06_07.pdf

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

Did I miss the memo on this forum becoming one for quoting every post that appears on netweather? That seems to be the only content that gets posted here anymore.

Regarding Thursday, I haven't seen any of today's model runs but last night they were hinting at our usual marginal setup, with sleet at sea level and snow around 100 m+. Not sure what the hirlam is saying now, will check later.

I fear its the lack of posting from the more knowlegdeable. We have to look elsewhere for guidance

blackius

My advice not to look at the models this week still stands.
See what the big three say from the 12 z onwards on Saturday.

premiercad

NeVeR wrote: »

premiercad wrote: »

There is a real battle on our hands here,

Thursday looks a mixed bag as regards our traditional mixed wintery showers (NW flow), but there is a serious battle going on between the east and west on the models.

GFS just has us right on the edge!

Is this image saying we'll be going close to -8 next week ?

I would say this image is a brief hint of a potential cold spell, at the moment the models are struggling to gauge how deep and how far west Russian high pressure will develop and how much it will block our typical adlantic weather.

vickers209

UK MET OFFICE MONTHLY OUTLOOK


Monday 23 January Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook


Summary
Could it start to feel much more like winter?

The transition from January to February is typically the coldest time of the year, but will reality follow climatology?

After a mild and wet interlude this week, it looks bright and showery, but colder, as we move towards the weekend.

The forecast as we head into February has more uncertainty than usual, with two very different possible outcomes. One of which would bring more of the sort of weather we have experienced for much of the winter so far - mild and changeable - but the other may bring about some much colder weather and an increased likelihood for the risk of snow.

Monday 23 January—Sunday 29 January
Turning colder

After a bright start with showers on Monday, the temperatures will rise through Tuesday and Wednesday with many spots hitting double figures but also seeing strong wind and rain at times.

By Thursday temperatures will take a tumble with colder, showery weather feeding in from the northwest. This will set the theme for the rest of the week. These showers will always be more frequent for Northern Ireland, western Scotland, northwest England and north Wales with regions further south and east seeing the best of the drier, brighter weather.

The north will see hill snow and wintry showers to lower levels at times. In the south, any snow will mainly be confined to higher ground. Generally though, it will be cold and frosty by night everywhere.

Monday 30 January—Sunday 5 February
A tale of two forecasts

This week will start with rain and hill snow in the north and west and perhaps a few wintry showers in southern and eastern areas too.

Through the first half of the week the weather will tend to become more settled with drier but rather cold weather on the cards, with frosts very likely overnight.

By the middle of the week the forecast becomes much trickier because our forecasting models are showing two very different, but equally likely, scenarios.

The first scenario shows the winds becoming southwesterly. This would lead to changeable and fairly mild weather - much like the sort of weather we have had for much of the winter so far.

The other scenario would bring something rather different. The winds would swing round to the northeast bringing much colder weather, widespread frosts and an increased risk of snow.

As we get closer to the event, it will become clearer which of these solutions is going to materialise. Stay tuned to the forecasts for all the latest information.


Monday 6 February—Sunday 19 February
The split continues

The outcome of the two-way split in the forecast is also going to be the key in determining the forecast, possibly right up to the middle of February.

If the southwesterly winds prevail we can expect to see more unsettled but mild weather.

On the other hand, if the northeasterly becomes dominant then it could be another cold couple of weeks, with further frosts in store as well as the likelihood of snow.

derekon

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in........:D

My nerves cannot take any more of this. The models today look a lot better for cold - the ECM is showing a westward movement of some very cold air towards the UK & Ireland from around Monday 31st January onwards. The other models are also trending towards colder weather from next week.Maybe the Atlantic is starting to go quiet.

Will this winter have a sting in its tail? :rolleyes:

D

yorlum11

derekon wrote: »

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in........:D

My nerves cannot take any more of this. The models today look a lot better for cold - the ECM is showing a westward movement of some very cold air towards the UK & Ireland from around Monday 31st January onwards. The other models are also trending towards colder weather from next week.Maybe the Atlantic is starting to go quiet.

Will this winter have a sting in its tail? :rolleyes:

D

Lets hope so!!!

H2UMrsRobinson

derekon wrote: »

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in........:D

My nerves cannot take any more of this. The models today look a lot better for cold - the ECM is showing a westward movement of some very cold air towards the UK & Ireland from around Monday 31st January onwards. The other models are also trending towards colder weather from next week.Maybe the Atlantic is starting to go quiet.

Will this winter have a sting in its tail? :rolleyes:

D

But its always a week away. When Its 3-4 days away I might start to get excited...marginally!

derekon

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

But its always a week away. When Its 3-4 days away I might start to get excited...marginally!

That is true, any real cold is always a week away and then before you know it the next model run collapses the cold.

However, should the easterly still be showing on the models this Thursday/Friday then I would say we are in with a good chance. Also just checked temps in Moscow and its currently -14oC there with cold also starting to show up in Poland & Germany. These are positive signs.

I think the next week will be make or break for any real cold prospects in Ireladn this winter....

D

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

Did I miss the memo on this forum becoming one for quoting every post that appears on netweather? That seems to be the only content that gets posted here anymore.

Regarding Thursday, I haven't seen any of today's model runs but last night they were hinting at our usual marginal setup, with sleet at sea level and snow around 100 m+. Not sure what the hirlam is saying now, will check later.

TBH Im guilty of cross posting from Netweather simply to try and keep intrest in the forum going as we seem to be missing a lot of the regular poster who would be very knowledgeable.

My skill level would not be good enough to give a proper analysis of the charts and it is better to have something in here rather than nothing.

Its become very tin on top in here the last few weeks, the tumbleweed has been rolling on through.

pistolpetes11

Review on the weather models this evening.

GFS

This time yesterday things were looking pretty grim with the 3 main models not agreeing however tonight we have them agreeing on the same trend which is a big improvement since yesterday. At 96 hours all models have good agreement on a shortwave heading South East which is very important for us and to see good agreement on all of them is a promising sign. For the GFS 120 hours and beyond is where FI comes into play. All models at this time do have good agreement over and Easterly but it varies whether it will be cold or not. The area of disagreement at 120 hours lies out in the Atlantic and the area of Iceland as well. The models all show something similar with a low pressure system entering the Atlantic and low pressure over Iceland so this is where FI is at the moment. The GFS from this weekend to the first week of February shows an Easterly bringing snowfall to mainly Eastern parts at first but should eventually spread across the UK please bear in mind this occurs in FI but its a good sign.

JMA

Gave us a poor run yesterday it had to much power going in the Atlantic and completely under estimated the Russian high. Today in its short outlook shows signs of improvements but its longer range doesn't show any cold weather and again puts to much energy to the far North not allowing any blocking to occur. Perhaps it may slowly move towards an Easterly in FI but it is an improvement overall from yesterday.

ECM

Its great to see another member of the 3 main models show support on an Easterly although its Easterly looks a lot drier and not as cold as what some models have shown. It can still change though the main thing is it shows an Easterly. Its long term outlook is also good with the Atlantic becoming very weak and with the Easterly still in place.

GEM

We don't see many tonight giving others good agreement beyond 120 hours but at this time it shows something very similar to the ECM giving it good support. GEM does show an Easterly as well by the weekend although it does seem to have a bit more energy in the Iceland area but the Atlantic seems to be weaker on it as well.

NOGAPS

It also supports an Easterly so good to have another model on board with this.

UKMO

A perfect example of what can happen in the weather model watching world the UKMO 24 hours ago simply said no this dampened the mood last night with many saying if it says no its not good. This morning the UKMO showed signs of improvement then on its afternoon update its showing the best charts of the day. So yes its gone from the worst to the best run within a day massive turn around and excellent news for cold lovers.

Overall a day ago things weren't looking to great with the ECM caught in the middle the UKMO said no and the GFS gave us all hope. Over the last 24 hours the ECM and UKMO have jumped over the agreed on an Easterly which is excellent news for cold lovers. The lesser known models seem to have slowly improved as well but still seem to be a bit behind on things. Now we must hope that the 3 main models stick to this and show and Easterly and if we push it, get a good solid long cold spell lasting well into February.

nilhg

Don't get your hopes too high just yet folks, there is poor support for the operational run in the GFS ensembles,



And my reading of the ECMWF ensembles doesn't suggest too much confidence there either.

Whatever happens I think it's pretty certain that there will be many more changes in the FI end of the various model runs.

All line up for the rollercoaster.;)

mike65

I feel like playing the nobody knows card.

pauldry

Certainly looks a bit colder for the end of January and start of February although to predict extreme cold is too unreliable yet.

It looks like low single figures for the end of the month with a few short mild interludes where the temperature will get up to 10c or 12c this week.

February looks promising enough for at least some wintry showers and cold nights.

It is most likely to be the coldest month of the Winter though there is not much to go against after a December of near 6.5c average and a January that is at 7c average.

darkman2

What Mike says.


Interesting output throughout the day but we are no closer to a clear understanding of the probable outcome in 8 days then we were 3 days ago. This flip flopping uncertainty has some days to run yet. Although it is fairly certain it will be average with frosty nights this weekend in the run up to any potential Easterly. Beyond that throw a dice (or a tantrum).

doccy

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

TBH Im guilty of cross posting from Netweather simply to try and keep intrest in the forum going as we seem to be missing a lot of the regular poster who would be very knowledgeable.

My skill level would not be good enough to give a proper analysis of the charts and it is better to have something in here rather than nothing.

Its become very tin on top in here the last few weeks, the tumbleweed has been rolling on through.

nice one, the effort is appreciated.

tylercollins

What do you pros think of this?

@BigJoeBastardi

Severe cold to develop in Europe over next month. Brutal Feb may rival Dec 2010 in extremity. euro weeklies go ape for continent

Su Campu

The cold stays in Europe alright. As I said yesterday, it may make it to us for a week or so, but I think it will retreat back east and stay there as the northeastern Canadian trough holds on, with us probably in the southwesterlies again.

nacho libre

tylercollins wrote: »

What do you pros think of this?

I'm not a pro, but i have an ok memory.
He has a tendency to exaggerate. He has spoken of such outcomes in winters past and they never happened. That's not to say he wont be right this time, but I'd be skeptical of what he says.

tylercollins

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm not a pro, but i have an ok memory.
He has a tendency to exaggerate. He has spoken of such outcomes in winters past and they never happened. That's not to say he wont be right this time, but I'd be skeptical of what he says.

Yeah I'm well aware of his big bold forecasts and his tendency to "over exaggerate" but I just wanted to know what the more advanced guys on here thought about his statement.

Maybe I should have explained that lol I didn't mean it in anyway to be disrespectful to you guys, just wanted to see your opinion.

Harps

Bastardi seems to base those comments on the last model run he's seen, maybe that's the idea I don't know but I wouldn't pay much attention to those posts. In saying that, it does look like the continent is going to start February with some extreme cold (supposed to go to Switzerland on the 29th but had to pull out :rolleyes:), not going to reach us right away though.

Latest GFS gives us a decent 'cool' spell between late Wednesday and Friday, maybe finally a couple of interesting days for the north and west? Uppers between -4 and -6C so hopefully some heavy hail showers at least.

After that, back to western zonality but again anything beyond a week is going to keep changing on every run so pay no heed

nacho libre

Interestingly, while the uk met office are still on the fence, they do state if an easterly takes hold they expect it to last well into February. Of course that could means it hangs on in the south east of England till then, while we return to milder weather much sooner. It would be nice if the NAO was in the same territory as it was in December 2010, as that would help our cause.

derekon

Althiough well into FI, just had to post the 0z ECM run for Friday week, the 3rd February 2012. Stunning but very unlikely to come off, unless the models hold with a definite easterly trend over the coming week

derekon

derekon wrote: »

Althiough well into FI, just had to post the 0z ECM run for Friday week, the 3rd February 2012. Stunning but very unlikely to come off, unless the models hold with a definite easterly trend over the coming week

I don't seem to be able to post the image but here is the link....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

dermiek

derekon wrote: »

Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in........:D

My nerves cannot take any more of this. The models today look a lot better for cold - the ECM is showing a westward movement of some very cold air towards the UK & Ireland from around Monday 31st January onwards. The other models are also trending towards colder weather from next week.Maybe the Atlantic is starting to go quiet.

Will this winter have a sting in its tail? :rolleyes:

D

Actually, Tuesday is the 31st. :rolleyes:

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 Close
ECM 32 Day overnight update continues the signal for an E or SE'ly flow into early Feb. This signal has been consistent in recent updates...


Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 22m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
The only consistent model in recent week(s) is the EC 32 day with regards to a colder signal into early Feb...an interesting few days ahead!