Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Birdnuts

chrisjdoran wrote: »

I believe the changing models are caused by the lack of positive snow vibes.
If we all just say to ourselves, "it's on the way", then the models WILL change.
If not we should all chip in and head to Bulgaria, six inches in seven hours fell today, the lucky sods! :eek:

The wife just rang from Oslo where she informed me they are nearly snowed in - I had to put down the phone at that point and have a little cry:pac:;)

TheMilkyPirate

Joe bastardi:

"I bet all you GFS followers are grinning after the ensemble run. US has 7 day break. BTW europe going into Feb Freeze also"

chrisjdoran

Birdnuts wrote: »

The wife just rang from Oslo where she informed me they are nearly snowed in - I had to put down the phone at that point and have a little cry:pac:;)

Why does the rest of the world taunt us poor Irish with all this snow talk? I'd much rather a snowball in the face lol

Trotter

Based on Joe Bastardi's forecast I ended up having a chat with a work colleague who bought a load of new warm clothes and snow chains for the 20th January.. :P:D

I won't be buying mine on the strength of his forecasts.

K_1

GFS 18z has a Scandi high building for a few days, but not delivering.

nacho libre

The gfs delivers- just not to us- the coldest air seems to head into France and Iberia.
I've heard it said the ecm is better at handling blocking over europe. I hope that's the case. We don't want to see the ecm trending towards the GFS - as we saw recently when the ECM was predicting a cold weekend for us. The ukmo is having none of it. So the countrytrack forecast tomorrow will be inconclusive. it'll probably use the word uncertainty.

dermiek

chrisjdoran wrote: »

Why does the rest of the world taunt us poor Irish with all this snow talk? I'd much rather a snowball in the face lol

when I was a kid ( lived in the UK ) we used to put stones into snowballs so no, I don't want one in the face.

Deep Easterly

The ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10 has Ireland slap bang between two very different air masses:



Has been hinting at this scenario for the last 2 or 3 runs. Battle of the air masses with Ireland left in no mans land. One of them has to give, and I know which one I would prefer too.

Sponge Bob

BUT BUT BUT ...what happens if there is an ignorant lump of moisture in the Atlantic Flow ??? :eek:

Hypothetically of course!

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

BUT BUT BUT ...what happens if there is an ignorant lump of moisture in the Atlantic Flow ??? :eek:

Hypothetically of course!

Of course, but what is an 'ignorant' lump of moisture? Please be patient with this slow-witted guy.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Of course, but what is an 'ignorant' lump of moisture? Please be patient with this slow-witted guy.

i think what he means is that in these situations the atlantic often wins out, even when its supposedly in a weaker state.

so this is why i really feel like taking a week off from this forum. it is possible i could be banned for a week:pac:

fizzycyst

nacho libre wrote: »

i think what he means is that in these situations the atlantic often wins out, even when its supposedly in a weaker state.

so this is why i really feel like taking a week off from this forum. it is possible i could be banned for a week:pac:

Never nacho never! :D

Harps

I've pretty much taken the past week off, spent the previous week checking nearly every model run to no avail so I've just had a quick look in the evening now and again and not surprisingly any sign of cold weather is still over a week away. Far better for the health!

chrisjdoran

dermiek wrote: »

when I was a kid ( lived in the UK ) we used to put stones into snowballs so no, I don't want one in the face.

You have just given me a flashback to 1986, I was in school when it snowed real good, we all got off early and as you'd expect a massive snowball fight ensued and I managed to catch a snowball complete with stone inside with my right eyeball! Ouch, never found the git that threw it either :mad:

The one BIG factor in this battle of these air masses is the sun, which has been doing some strange things in the last 12 months, X class flares, M class flares, heaps of new sun-spots, grand filaments, spiral ejections, causing compression of our magnetosphere etc, surely it will only heat up the Atlantic air mass quicker than the continental air mass, and it feels like for months now we are getting a solid westerly keeping the winter cold above us
and temps above normal, as Mr. O' Donnell predicted, it just seems to be all over the place up there no-one really knows how the winter will end..
If we just get a couple of days of snow I promise I'll shut up lol

blackius

The U.S met office is discounting the GFS/Gefs again which is ironic given it has maintained an easterly theme for this side of the pond.
As they are it's owners,You can kiss the prospects of a snowy start to February good bye.
The ECM ensembles are also not keen.

This Easterly which wasn't very cold anyway due to the warmish near continent is a non event it looks like that may not even come near to happening.

200motels

blackius wrote: »

The U.S met office is discounting the GFS/Gefs again which is ironic given it has maintained an easterly theme for this side of the pond.
As they are it's owners,You can kiss the prospects of a snowy start to February good bye.
The ECM ensembles are also not keen.

This Easterly which wasn't very cold anyway due to the warmish near continent is a non event it looks like that may not even come near to happening.

I think you could be right. Even MT has changed his forecast. The guys on here who predict the weather with nature seem to be on the ball.

Wild Bill

200motels wrote: »

I think you could be right. Even MT has changed his forecast. The guys on here who predict the weather with nature seem to be on the ball.

Never scoff at the wisdom of crows :cool:

pistolpetes11

Well despite all the 'positive sounds' coming from various sources the 0z runs are dreadful for the hopes of anyone wanting a tastse of siberian air.That PV and its associated energy is just not going to allow for that anticcyclone to get far enough west to be of any use to the UK anytime soon.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rukm1441.html
I alluded to ukmo last night,no trigger to bring that cold air west and actually a +NAO on the above chart,no cold coming any time soon from that IMO.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1441.html
ECM looks very similar to UKMO at 144hrs,again no trigger low to bring the cold west.
Followed by
http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1681.html
and
http://www.wetterzen...s/Recm1921.html
Yep,thats the PV reorganizing itself to the North west.
There is still time for changes but all things considered id be amazed if the ukmo further outlook did not start changing by tomorrow.



And now the other View :

t is good to see a reasoned post highlighting the reasons why the current prospects for cold are so difficult to achieve.

Whereas this post may have been very accurate a month ago it is less so now.
Yes there are a few hurdles to overcome to achieve sustained cold, but the fact is that we are now in far different hemispheric pattern than earlier in the winter. The two main obstacles to overcome currently are the stable Azores high and strong polar vortex to our NW.

Earlier in the winter it had been mentioned that the polar vortex would rule the roost until mid January when signs of weakening would occur leaving a far greater chance of blocking into February. I ask does this look likely still? Yes, of course it does.

You mention that the jet stream remains rampant but that is not the case. The jet stream is as weak and disorganised as it has been this winter. Look at this chart pouring warm uppers into Svalbard in half the time frame you mention.



That is certainly not conducive to a stable vortex.

And that is probably why most of the mid range blocking forecasts are completely different to the start of the winter with far more polar blocking indicated and in areas that the UK could benefit from.




I think it is important to realise that most 'teleconnectionists' suggested that it would be February that would have the greatest chance of blocking and cold and I for one see no reason to change these thoughts with February still over a week away.


We still have a warming occurring now in the mid stratosphere that is likely to have another significant effect on any remaining westerlies as February arrives increasing the blocking risk further.

derekon

Just watched the BBC Country Tracks Weather for the week ahead and there is nothing cold at all on the horizon from the UK Met Office. The forecast for the week ahead does however show mainly settled conditions (after Tuesday) with cooler temps than last week and some frost. Is this part of a slow change to a colder pattern and less dominant Atlantic? Maybe.

However, looking at the UK charts for the week ahead, if anything the Azores High looks to be getting stronger at the end of the week which does not bode well for cold. I said last week the window for cold is closing in on us, we are now a week on and the window is getting smaller. Not looking good for snow in Ireland at all this winter , unless there is a dramatic change in weather patterns soon.

D

Icanseethewind

Trsut em the crows are never wrong..... . No snow this winter or spring... nature is getting into the swing of things now... The seals I mentioned earlier are still congregating away on the rocks and thats a local old sign of a mild outlook.......

ophelia75

cool then a glimpse of cold maybe for Thurs adn back to the mild muck for the weekend. Though they added the usual " abit far ahead and could all change" but looking milder for the weekend. Where is this cold trend and "all change" that was coming this week according to the models a few days ago. Are they really flip flopping this much? Very frustrating:mad::mad::mad:

pjmn

Never paid any heed to Met Eireann....

Find this site to be particularly accurate... you can home in on your specific location...

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/

Trotter

I'm with the crows and seals from now on! Warm feel to it here on the south coast today. The grass has started to grow quicker this week (not that it really stopped) and the daffodils and other bulbs are well on the way.

I'm callin this one!

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Just been doing some prep work ahead of a shift tmoz and without question beyond the 28th/29th it's anyones guess!. Such huge uncertainties.

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Just been doing some prep work ahead of a shift tmoz and without question beyond the 28th/29th it's anyones guess!. Such huge uncertainties.

Yeah,the lovely Evelyn pretty much made the same point in a different way at lunchtime when again going as far as next saturday with the pretty boring outlook.
She said thats the way it looks now but things can change

Matt like Evelyn loves exciting weather and obviously cold weather and are constantly on the look out for it in winter.
Looking for it doesn't make it come though as we have learned yet again right through january.
If we have a similar fruitless february,then the cold can fcek off imho,thats what people mean when they say winters over,it's not but if it hasn't came by the end of february and comes then on into april it's a nuisance.
Winter in winter time please.

Another good one to follow is BBC points west met office forecaster Ian Ferguson.He's free with the model insights at times on the stuff we don't get to see,regularly tweeting the thoughts of the met office hq duty forecasters at Bracknell.

@fergieweather
He sometimes posts on netweather

pistolpetes11

Exactly Blackius,

Thats why it surprises me when people come in here complaining bout the MET forecast , they can only go on the latest guidance ( Models ) This can change 2-4 times per day (2 ECMWF, 4 GFS , although the Irish MET usually just stick with the ECMWF)

They also have a duty of care , and commenting on WHAT IF's like we do here can cause panic for the wider public, I like to look on the MET forecasts when a weather pattern is locked in so I can see the specifics of it

Anyway here is another bit from Matt Hugo

https://twitter.com/#!/MattHugo81/status/161089572292403201/photo/1/large

darkman2

We are very close I have to say. A bit of tweaking here and there and we have a bitter Easterly. It's the lack of a trough to our South that is spoiling it atm. The Azores high has free passage to sink us into a Southwesterly airflow. However we have seen this before and this can change very quickly wrt the models. A slightly better Jet Stream profile and we are in. The Siberian high pressure is nicely teed up by the end of next week. Let's see what the 12z model runs come up with. I don't think it's end game by any means.

cherryghost

Hi all, bit late to the party! 06Z looks good for a slowly emerging pattern of an easterly winning out. The fact we're in the battleground between mild and cold may work out as an advantage to us, only time will tell

pistolpetes11

Enderman wrote: »

Hi all, bit late to the party! 06Z looks good for a slowly emerging pattern of an easterly winning out. The fact we're in the battleground between mild and cold may work out as an advantage to us, only time will tell

a cold front stalls a warm front just over us and the result is 10 foot of snow !

I wish

Wild Bill

pjmn wrote: »

Never paid any heed to Met Eireann....

They've been fairly on-the-ball this Winter.

Temps to get nearly down to average mid next week and then mild again next weekend; if I was a bookie I'd be quoting that at odds-on