Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

nacho libre

blackius wrote: »

Matt like Evelyn loves exciting weather and obviously cold weather and are constantly on the look out for it in winter.
Looking for it doesn't make it come though as we have learned yet again right through january.
If we have a similar fruitless february,then the cold can fcek off

It can feck off, unless we get a massive snow storm similar to the one in April 1933. The snow won't last long, but i'd personally love to experience something like that. I'm not too sure about Evelyn liking cold weather, she is always saying things like "but, thankfully it'll be milder.., though maybe she is concealing her true wishes for the benefit of the viewers:D?

Anyway after viewing the countrytracks, Simon Keeling's forecast, which someone posted a few days ago, looks to be a very plausible outcome now. I haven't followed his forecasts over the winter, but i think the same poster said his forecasts have been fairly accurate so far this winter.

darkman2

12z GFS is an improvement on recent runs. Less energy through the GIN corridor means better posistioning in terms of height increases to our North and better westward propagation of very cold surface air from the near continent as well as the Artic airmass entrenched in Eastern Europe. A step in the right direction.






Typical dramatic surface temperature effect at night.






At 192 here comes the attempted Atlantic undercut - incoming!







And that folks is how we get a proper Easterly in place. Note the cold pool over Europe.



Keep calm!

12z UKMO shows Atlantic conditions returning next Friday.

nacho libre

Will the ecm back the ukmo? we really don't want to see the gfs out on its own.

howlinwolf

cant see the cold winning out myself its had a load of chances this winter but the atlantic wins out every time, think the westerlys are just too strong this winter,maybe next winter:o

Su Campu

Met Eireann actually use up to 5 models, not just the ECMWF. They use the UKMO, DWD, Hirlam and Harmonie too, so it's not just a simple case of they are reading the ECMWF model output and that's that.

I myself reckon we'll see around a week-long easterly in around 2 weeks' time, but back to Atlantic dominance after that. The current building of the high to the east is encouraging but is only a remote response to the changes in the minor strat warming over the past two weeks, which has been nothing of note. With nothing spectacular looking like happening in the strat any time soon, I think the PV may just about hold its own and begin to restrengthen over the next couple of weeks. By then though the cold to the east will be well in place and should have a big say for a while. I think it will push west enough for some normal February easterlies, which may or may not deliver snow depending on specifics, but after that it will push further east and stay east.

Interesting times though, we'll see what happens.

Redsunset

@ howlinwolf I disagree, the cold is only getting a chance now.
The Polar Vortex has been far too strong to allow any proper easterly cold to develop.We're getting this chance now because it has weaken immensely.

pistolpetes11

redsunset wrote: »

@ howlinwolf I disagree, the cold is only getting a chance now.
The Polar Vortex has been far too strong to allow any proper easterly cold to develop.We're getting this chance now because it has weaken immensely.

I was thinking there is a massive warming ongoing or forecast to come and its nearly technically a SSW event

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I was thinking there is a massive warming ongoing or forecast to come and its nearly technically a SSW event

according to the lads over on netweather it hasn't been as good as it could have been, the ep flux went towards the equators ran than polewards, which prevented an actual ssw event happening.
this meant the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere was not as weakened as it could have been. which i think means once the warming is over, the polar vortex at lower levels will be able to reestablish itself quicker.

or am i mistaken? i may well be

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the lads over on netweather it hasn't been as good as it could have been, the ep flux went towards the equators ran than polewards, which prevented an actual ssw event happening.
this meant the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere was not as weakened as it could have been. which i think means once the warming is over, the polar vortex at lower levels will be able to reestablish itself quicker.

or am i mistaken? i may well be

That's what I reckon will happen anyway.

only one

Su Campu wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the lads over on netweather it hasn't been as good as it could have been, the ep flux went towards the equators ran than polewards, which prevented an actual ssw event happening.
this meant the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere was not as weakened as it could have been. which i think means once the warming is over, the polar vortex at lower levels will be able to reestablish itself quicker.

or am i mistaken? i may well be

That's what I reckon will happen anyway.

What does that mean ? Lol

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

according to the lads over on netweather it hasn't been as good as it could have been, the ep flux went towards the equators ran than polewards, which prevented an actual ssw event happening.
this meant the polar vortex in the upper stratosphere was not as weakened as it could have been. which i think means once the warming is over, the polar vortex at lower levels will be able to reestablish itself quicker.

or am i mistaken? i may well be

This was one of the lines the last update:

We are now at a situation where currently we are seeing a warming into the core of the vortex far closer to the troposphere than encountered so far this winter - at the 30 hPa level.

The upper warnings so far have had the net effect of dragging the mean zonal negative winds equator wards which has somewhat inhibited the effect felt in northern latitudes tropospherically with the stratospheric polar vortex reducing but still present.


What do you think RED ? Your the resident SSW expert ?

So we can compare the forecast for the mean zonal winds and look to see that the polar vortex has reduced dramatically in intensity as we are not too far away from a technical SSW.

pistolpetes11

only one wrote: »

What does that mean ? Lol

Its all in here

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056438481

Get yourself a cup of tea and park off a few hours !

Lucreto

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

This was one of the lines the last update:

We are now at a situation where currently we are seeing a warming into the core of the vortex far closer to the troposphere than encountered so far this winter - at the 30 hPa level.


What do you think RED ? Your the resident SSW expert ?

So we can compare the forecast for the mean zonal winds and look to see that the polar vortex has reduced dramatically in intensity as we are not too far away from a technical SSW.

well i did actually ask chino' about all this over on netweather, he seems to think the warming at the 30 hpa level is a significant event. so who am I to disagree!

Wild Bill

nacho libre wrote: »

It can feck off, unless we get a massive snow storm similar to the one in April 1933.

It's possible, if it's cold enough, to get good snow weather (sub-zero for 20hrs/day) till mid-March.

In 2001 on the last day of February we had this.....



And despite cloudless skies and a March sun, five days later it still looked like this.....



Excuse quality; digital was less pixeled in them days.

(And so far as I can remember, winter 2000/2001 was snowless till then - was it one of those occasional years when March was the coldest "winter" month?)

darkman2

Europe in the freezer on the ECM at 168hrs




Might take a holiday to Greece

darkman2

Serious stuff in the East of the continent by day 10




Good news is it is not that far away from the GFS at 144hrs. A little less energy and a bit more amplification into the North arm of the jet and they would be virtually the same. Small differences though make big differences further down the line.

At least it is not the UKMO tonight which is yuk. Still on.

ltdslipdiff

I dunno guys


This winter has been right up there with finding out there was no Santa !!!

lostinashford

ltdslipdiff wrote: »

I dunno guys


This winter has been right up there with finding out there was no Santa !!!

What do you mean - no Santa ?????????

Redsunset

Stay on topic please

jirafa

Consistency in forecasting cold weather 22/1/2012
From: Weather School Channel Jan 22, 2012


Video Link .................. http://youtu.be/oEup9llw2qw

nacho libre

The latest ecm charts seems to put energy from the northern arm of the jet a little too far south, which then prevents the russian high from moving far enough westwards.

it really will be interesting to see the ecm 32 day update tomorrow. if it's positive, will the ukmo then perhaps change their 6-15 outlook to back an easterly developing?

jirafa

:D:D:D Just a tease,cant see that happening somehow ...:o:o:o:o:o

Nabber

South Westerly for next week. GFS looking best for some cold weather. But will enough cold have built up on the continent to give us a freeze?

blackius

nacho libre wrote: »

The latest ecm charts seems to put energy from the northern arm of the jet a little too far south, which then prevents the russian high from moving far enough westwards.

it really will be interesting to see the ecm 32 day update tomorrow. if it's positive, will the ukmo then perhaps change their 6-15 outlook to back an easterly developing?

Doubt it.
This has all the hallmarks of an academic meaningless mathematical soiree in Fi by the models inventing hypothetical outcomes disconnected from reality with barely two hopes (one of which is Bob) of ever happening before mid February now by the looks of things.
Something dramatic has to change and it doesn't seem to want to.

bb1234567

blackius wrote: »

Doubt it.
This has all the hallmarks of an academic meaningless mathematical soiree in Fi by the models inventing hypothetical outcomes disconnected from reality with barely two hopes (one of which is Bob) of ever happening before mid February now by the looks of things.
Something dramatic has to change and it doesn't seem to want to.

So now the feb cold snap is off too, oh the horrors:(I'm going to go cry now....:pac: Jk not really but sort of:P

Flying Fish

Me thinks ... Topflight Ski last minute deals.

200motels

bb1234567 wrote: »

blackius wrote: »

Doubt it.
This has all the hallmarks of an academic meaningless mathematical soiree in Fi by the models inventing hypothetical outcomes disconnected from reality with barely two hopes (one of which is Bob) of ever happening before mid February now by the looks of things.
Something dramatic has to change and it doesn't seem to want to.

So now the feb cold snap is off too, oh the horrors:(I'm going to go cry now....:pac: Jk not really but sort of:P

Just had a quick look at the latest GFS run and the easterly is gone from the last run, it's time to call this as a non event.

BEASTERLY

And now the GFS falls in line with the ECM, game over folks!


:pac:

Nabber

The last time it was the ECM that was pushing cold while GFS was showing milder runs. Now we have just had vice versa.

It was always FI tho. Hey it might pick up again. No doubt it will be for mid Feb tho, we'll watch the models for a week and see it all drop of in one run of the models....