Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Deep Easterly

Birdnuts wrote: »

We've had less then 5 days air frost so far this winter

That is 4 more air frosts than I have recorded this winter so far!

BEASTERLY

Well this makes a change...

Sponge Bob

The 18z pub Run is rolling out on the GFS. They do not develop the 'Greenland Low' as much as previous runs.



And it does not drive through to the SE towards SE England as in previous but fades away northward




By Saturday the Highs are encroaching, the usual suspect from the SW and a European cousin.



Finally , by Monday we have a winner



God they are all over the place though

lostinashford

Why is Evelyn/ME suddenly doing 7/8 day forecasts? They normally subscribe it the 5 day rule or just getting into the fun of looking into the future! Are they feeling the online pressure?

davidsr20

lostinashford wrote: »

Why is Evelyn/ME suddenly doing 7/8 day forecasts? They normally subscribe it the 5 day rule or just getting into the fun of looking into the future! Are they feeling the online pressure?

Ye all need to seriously get over Evelyn she hasn't a clue

Villain

Birdnuts wrote: »

We've had less then 5 days air frost so far this winter and I saw a Cowslip in full bloom 3 months early today. Is their no end to this mild drizzly rubbish

Really less than 5 in Wicklow??

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 5m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
I can't go into details I wish I could, but between 31Jan-04Feb there are 41 ECM ENS members clustered around potentially very cold weather!

Wild Bill

Birdnuts wrote: »

We've had less then 5 days air frost so far this winter and I saw a Cowslip in full bloom 3 months early today. Is their no end to this mild drizzly rubbish

A lot less - two here to be precise. One of them last Autumn (November).

So... a single winter air-frost so far. We are heading for a frost-free winter record???

doccy

I've counted two frosty morning in Greystones .. and it's almost February.

200motels

I only remember one frosty morning down here.

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 5m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
I can't go into details I wish I could, but between 31Jan-04Feb there are 41 ECM ENS members clustered around potentially very cold weather!

Liam dutton [ukmo,former bbc weatherman and now ch4 weather] replies with a valid point as to how mild europe is at the moment.
The easterly would have to be coming for near a week to trough some proper cold in as far as Ireland.
It won't happen on days 1 to 4 which means,that the synoptics for an easterly,preferably a northeasterly as it's colder would want to be very sustainable with good atantic blocking.

pistolpetes11

blackius wrote: »

Liam dutton [ukmo,former bbc weatherman and now ch4 weather] replies with a valid point as to how mild europe is at the moment.
The easterly would have to be coming for near a week to trough some proper cold in as far as Ireland.
It won't happen on days 1 to 4 which means,that the synoptics for an easterly,preferably a northeasterly as it's colder would want to be very sustainable with good atantic blocking.

Yeah just reminded me of something else to add to this :

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 2h Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
“@fergieweather UKMO at pains 2 stress how solutions end of next wk remain divergent/uncertain. Cold bandwagon still premature.” #toptweet


As the above tweet shows , lets not get too carried away yet , Ive been on this forum over the last good few years where we have been on the brink only for it to crumble away again .

I wouldn't be running around telling people the snow and cold is on the way just yet

#keepthemfeetgroundedfornow

fizzycyst

200motels wrote: »

I only remember one frosty morning down here.

I've had to get the kettle out a couple of times on the school run, not too many though.

Sponge Bob

0 Kettle excursions and 1 frost for me. But we are talking about the past in a futures thread here guys!

nacho libre

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Yeah just reminded me of something else to add to this :

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 2h Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
“@fergieweather UKMO at pains 2 stress how solutions end of next wk remain divergent/uncertain. Cold bandwagon still premature.” #toptweet

Yeah this is why the UK met office are still sitting on the fence. They are well aware that we've had close but no cigar situations before with Russian highs When black briar and su campu purchase their tickets for the roller coaster, then it's safe to tell your friends colder weather is on the way

M.T. Cranium

The GFS has somewhat gone off the boil (not the right analogy) although it's by no means a terrible run, but the ECM has just shifted back into the cold easterly camp. It takes 3-4 days to get the orientation right but you can see that by day 10 it wants to bring a strong shot of Siberian air west into the North Sea by day 11 (which is 1 Feb). With this ECM run, what we could expect would be a gradual downward trend in temperature from mid-week on, gradual development of more severe frost at night, then a wintry pattern replacing that modified cold as a weak southeast flow turned more to a moderate-strong easterly. Worth monitoring in any case. The GFS seems to have shifted away from a direct hit from the east and toys with various other modified cold scenarios while the UKMO has lot interest altogether and returned the mid-week low to sender.

Not the worst blend of model runs for the cold/snow seekers, but we must remain grounded. The Siberian high is intense but if it doesn't gain latitude then it runs into the danger of getting stuck over southeast Europe and just forming a new ramp for the Atlantic to perform on. The ECM run does lift it up for perhaps the third time that we've been watching. These long-range evolutions of Russian highs are very challenging to models and theoretical forecasting alike, and very small differences in short range expand out to major differences in a week or two.

derekon

Met Eireann weather update issued just a few hours ago does not look good for cold weather late next week/weekend. Might be time to start bringing ourselves down to earth here?

Thursday night will be mainly dry and cold, with clear spells and some frost. Through Friday and next weekend, however, mild and breezy conditions will return but there will be rain or drizzle at times, especially for western areas.

This ongoing mild drizzle is enough to drive any cold fan demented. It seems relentless at this stage.

D

blackius

Tremendous uncertainty and everything obviously well into fi at this stage in the one main model still showing promise.
Those of a nervous disposition might be best advised to take a break from this for a week.
Nothing is going to happen to our weather in that week other than rain/drizzle and wind so that's what I advise.
The pendulum hasn't swung yet.

aurora 527

A nice cold easterly, sure would be nice!!;)

derekon

blackius wrote: »

Tremendous uncertainty and everything obviously well into fi at this stage in the one main model still showing promise.
Those of a nervous disposition might be best advised to take a break from this for a week.
Nothing is going to happen to our weather in that week other than rain/drizzle and wind so that's what I advise.
The pendulum hasn't swung yet.

I think that is sensible advice Blackius and I might take it myself..........however curiosity will not doubt kill me and I will be back lurking around the weather boards before too long.......:)

D

Redsunset

A serious health warning should be noted when one is monitoring every model run. The roller coaster of different emotions can break you.:)

Eastcoastryan

4 Hours since the last post in here, that cant be a good sign. All we want is a couple of days snow, surely that's not too much to ask!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsunset wrote: »

A serious health warning should be noted when one is monitoring every model run. The roller coaster of different emotions can break you.:)

I'll tell you now I am on the verge of a nervous breakdown at this stage ! ha ! :pac:

Makes it worse that Ian is probably buried in snow in Sweden :mad:

darkman2

The 00z ECM is the dream scenario for those looking for colder weather. Increasingly coold continental flow bringing very low surface temperatures, harsh frosts and ice before the main event so to speak.

The 00z UKMO is the opposite. Flattening the pattern and returning to a milder Atlantic regime quickly.

GFS is bobbing in between the two atm. A happy medium.

esposito

Feck this, I'm staying away from boards for a week (hopefully). Just fed up with all this chopping and changing. Hopefully I'll tune into the weather forecast next fri/sat with Gerry or Jean warning me of strong northerly/n easterly winds over the coming days.Goodbye.

Scubadevils

Highly unscientific of me but thought I'd ask anyway - I've been checking temps for Moscow on the weather app on my phone for the last couple of weeks, typically they've been at around 0c or a little below during the day which certainly I figure would be of concern if we were to get an easterly sourced from that part of the world? - right now its showing -10c and that drops over the coming days down to -14c on Wednesday. So presumably this is good news, despite being basic meteorology? :pac:

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 2m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
12Z GFS Det now on board with a cold but rather stable E or NE'ly evident .

darkman2

...

Harps

Still nothing much happening in the models, next Thursday might be a somewhat interesting day for the west coast but aside from that its looking like yet another uneventful week. Some hope after than but as always take anything for more than a week away with a pinch of salt

chrisjdoran

I believe the changing models are caused by the lack of positive snow vibes.
If we all just say to ourselves, "it's on the way", then the models WILL change.
If not we should all chip in and head to Bulgaria, six inches in seven hours fell today, the lucky sods! :eek: