Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

irish1967 · 07-12-2011 5:12pm

Ah we're used to it here:D

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 5:20pm

That "Part Deux" storm is lookin pretty hefty at 120 hours on the latest GFS.

Track is different from the 06Z though. Potential still there anyway.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 6:01pm

Scottish Transport Minister is advising communters to leave work early tomorrow if possible to avoid the storm. They are expecting major disruption.

07-12-2011 6:04pm

was watching a bbc report, loved how the guy calls the storm 'this bad boy'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16068618

flash freeze warning in aberdeen too

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/CouncilNews/ci_cns/pr_FlashFreeze_071211.asp

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 6:09pm

The developing storm centre saw a fall of 13.0 hPa in the last 12 hours as it moved ENE.

Fax Analysis: (3 frames: 00z, 06z & 12z )

Low was positioned at roughly 53N - 36W at 12UTC.

Meteocentre analysis has it actually 3.0 hPA higher at 12utc:

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=2011120712&lang=fr&map=AtlN&size=standard

but falling nevertheless. Will be interesting to see how much this low 'bombs' over the next 12 to 18hrs or so.

M.T. Cranium · 07-12-2011 6:13pm

This thread has been excellent and I haven't really felt any need to add anything ... just wanted to mention that I posted concerning snowfall potential for 5-15 cms in parts of Ulster and nearby counties in the ongoing snowfall thread. As to the wind potential with this storm, would agree that it will be worst in western Scotland but Donegal and exposed parts of Mayo could expect some gusts to 120-130 km/hr and further east around Antrim in particular the winds may be storm force for a longer period as the storm deepens closer to them.

Further south, the wind potential may not look all that impressive but this storm is likely to generate a very fast-moving squall line feature that will need to be watched for brief gusts into the 110-120 km/hr range, as well as hail and thunder.

The potential for snow in parts of the north is perhaps the main feature of this storm for inland places that are not exposed to the strongest winds, while coastal regions may see this as a two-part storm of wind followed by blowing snow. The rate of cold advection is very fast especially by regional climate standards, and reminds me of a Great Lakes snow squall type event with the rapid fall in thickness and 850-mb temps. Would not be surprised if we get reports of "blizzard-like" conditions in parts of Ulster and north Connacht by afternoon and travel may be disrupted around the region.

The Monday night event continues to feature strongly on the model runs this morning and would be a country-wide severe windstorm as per the GFS, gusts to 140 km/hr would be possible with that gradient. Also severe cold rapidly follows in very strong winds with the chance for heavy snow showers much further south than we've been seeing them. Would advise that with this energy, a somewhat faster timetable could develop, in other words, this storm could actually arrive Sunday night into Monday.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 6:51pm

A look at the gusts maxing out on this scale, off the northwest coast on the hi res model.

Deep Easterly · 07-12-2011 7:03pm

Storm depression beginning to take shape in the Atlantic:

Conor30 · 07-12-2011 7:19pm

Jake1 wrote: »

was watching a bbc report, loved how the guy calls the storm 'this bad boy'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16068618

Chris Fawkes is such a great weather presenter!

Iancar29 · 07-12-2011 7:34pm

WISH I HAD A CAR!

So ehhh... ye... Anyone from the Dublin region wanna go chase this ? ... Poor Winger_Pl is in London!

GO halfsies on petrol!

Redsunset · 07-12-2011 7:40pm

Yes here's another view from 3pm today of her starting to rev up before she explodes. BOOM!!

Not · 07-12-2011 7:45pm

redsunset wrote: »

Yes here's another view from 3pm today of her starting to rev up before she explodes. BOOM!!

Thats throwing up a Dundee login page on accessing the thread page.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 7:51pm

Not wrote: »

Thats throwing up a Dundee login page on accessing the thread page.

Yeah same here, getting a login window every time I open this thread. Please rehost the image or something, thanks.

Iancar29 · 07-12-2011 7:54pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah same here, getting a login window every time I open this thread. Please rehost the image or something, thanks.

worked for me no problem? ....

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 7:57pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

WISH I HAD A CAR!

So ehhh... ye... Anyone from the Dublin region wanna go chase this ? ... Poor Winger_Pl is in London!

GO halfsies on petrol!

It's a long drive to Scotland! :pac::p

Pangea · 07-12-2011 8:08pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Donegal and exposed parts of Mayo could expect some gusts to 120-130 km/hr and further east around Antrim in particular the winds may be storm force for a longer period as the storm deepens closer to them.
.

Forgive me but we had gusts of 120kmhr last night in Donegal, so theres nothing really special about tomorrow then is there?

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 8:09pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah if. GFS not reliable with lows at that timeframe but it's possible...

True. It'll most likely be further north and less intense come Tuesday. The GFS is notorious for ramping.

Redsunset · 07-12-2011 8:10pm

Pangea wrote: »

Forgive me but we had gusts of 120kmhr last night in Donegal, so theres nothing really special about tomorrow then is there?

I would say parts of the North in the strongest gusts will hit 140km+

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 8:17pm

Pangea wrote: »

Forgive me but we had gusts of 120kmhr last night in Donegal, so theres nothing really special about tomorrow then is there?

Well look at it this way, you got higher gusts last night than what the models were showing. So when the models are showing even higher winds for tomorrow you should expect the possibility that you might get gusts that are even higher again.

nacho libre · 07-12-2011 8:31pm

I like storms, but i must say this one for Thursday looks fairly daunting if you live on the islands off the west coast of Scotland. There could be gusts in excess of 90 mph on the inner hebrides.

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 8:39pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I like storms, but i must say this one for Thursday looks fairly daunting if you live on the islands off the west coast of Scotland. There could be gusts in excess of 90 mph on the inner hebrides.

And the red high alert zone on the UKMO maps is right over the most populated area of Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Harps · 07-12-2011 8:46pm

Red alert for Donegal tomorrow as well..

Conor30 · 07-12-2011 8:47pm

snow ghost wrote: »

Not going to be fun for brontophobia sufferers out there... I don't think there are many here though.

Sorry to be pedantic, but that's a fear of thunder, not windstorms!:pac:

snow ghost · 07-12-2011 8:49pm

Conor30 wrote: »

Sorry to be pedantic, but that's a fear of thunder, not windstorms!:pac:

Conor, yes just before you posted I googled it and it said fear of thunder... the book I was just reading said it was 'fear of storms', and there was me thinking I'd just learnt a new snazzy word!

Conor30 · 07-12-2011 8:51pm

snow ghost wrote: »

Conor, yes just before you posted I googled it and it said fear of thunder... the book I was just reading said it was 'fear of storms', and there was me thinking I'd just learnt a new snazzy word!

No worries, mate. Wasn't trying to cut you down.

What's the name of the book, by the way?

maquiladora · 07-12-2011 8:51pm

Scotland not taking any chances.

The Forth Road Bridge is expected to close for four hours between 3pm and 7pm on Thursday due to the stormy weather.

Renfrewshire Council announced all schools will close at 1pm on Thurday after the alert. All special schools, including Hollybush Pre-five Centre, will be closed all day.

The warnings have been described as "highly unusual" by Transport Scotland, which is urging people to pay attention to police travel warnings. Police advise that conditions for travel between 3pm and 6pm on Thursday are likely to be extremely poor and significant delays should be expected.

The Scottish Government said the wind could lead to all main road bridges being closed and will have a severe impact on Thursday’s rush hour, while disruption to power supplies and property is also a strong possibility.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/285750-snow-and-ice-cause-problems-on-roads-as-storms-expected-to-hit-scotland/

snow ghost · 07-12-2011 9:02pm

Conor30 wrote: »

What's the name of the book, by the way?

'Paul McKenna's Hypnotic Secrets', was lying around and I picked it up, was reading about phobias... it was mesmerizing. :pac:

whitemocha · 07-12-2011 9:03pm

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9587/gfs-0-132_pct5.png

is the above yet another storm for next week???

Su Campu · 07-12-2011 9:04pm

Max winds forecast as per the latest TAFs (valid until 6 pm Thursday)

Belfast Aldergrove
W 35 gusty 55 kts (thought it would be more?)

Dublin Airport
W 32 gust 50 kts

Knock
W 30 gust 48 kts

Shannon
SW 30 gust 48 kts

Cork Airport
SW 27 gust 47 kts

Meanwhile, up in Scotland!!

Glasgow International
Chance of W 35 gust 55 kts

Prestwick
W 35 gust 50, chance of W 45 gust 65 kts

Edinburgh
Chance of W 35 gust 55 kts

These are the 24-hour TAFs, for the main airports. The smaller airports, such as Derry Eglington and the Hebrides airports, will have 9-hour TAFs issued early tomorrow morning.

Redsunset · 07-12-2011 9:10pm

Those TAF seem to be underplaying this storm for Scotland i feel.
75+ kts in gusts would be more like it.

Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

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