Potential Extreme Wind Storm - Thursday 8th December

irish1967

If this goes by the present charts it will be fantastic but also very dangerous up here. Am I right in thinking peak winds will be around 3pm??

maquiladora

Convective gust chart.





Pink is 90 knots and as high as the scale goes. (100+ mph)

Purple shades are 75-90 knots. (85-100 mph)

Vanilla/yellow shades are 60-75 knots. (70-85mph)

Sponge Bob

Seen lots of outrage on the GFS at 5 or 6 days out and then nothing exceptional, not even a 70KT gust. Eveyone chillax about next week until the snow blizzards and whiteouts start!!!!

leahyl

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Seen lots of outrage on the GFS at 5 or 6 days out and then nothing exceptional, not even a 70KT gust. Eveyone chillax about next week until the snow blizzards and whiteouts start!!!!

I wish!!:D

tylercollins

Portrush here I come tomorrow

irish1967

It's at times like this you miss OwenC

leahyl

irish1967 wrote: »

It's at times like this you miss OwenC

Not really though:D

Deep Easterly

Latest EMHI seem to be upgrading wind potential for northern coasts:



Actual prognosed track of the storm remains seems unchanged but with tighter gradient on its southern flank. More runs needed to either confirm or dismiss this idea.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest EMHI seem to be upgrading wind potential for northern coasts:

06Z GFS, NMM and NOGAPS also upgraded the intensity.

irish1967

Has this storm a name? I think we should call it Owen ! Lol

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS, NMM and NOGAPS also upgraded the intensity.

Yep Mag, Windfinder's 'superforecast' (which I think is GFS based) has wind speeds that are literally off the scale:




http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/superforecast_uk_scotland_animation.htm

maquiladora

irish1967 wrote: »

Has this storm a name? I think we should call it Owen ! Lol

Either Friedhelm or Günter, not sure yet.

WolfeIRE

Incredible winds throughout Ulster at midday tomorrow.



Not too dissimilar to Storm Carmen on 10 November 2010





Temps will dip sharply and fast moving squally showers (wintry especially in the n and w) will follow after the low's centre drifts over western Scotland

maw368

I have a very low opinion of the Met Office but if what you guys are saying is true, then The Met Office may as well stop operating because they did have a wind warning for the UK this morning but at this very moment in time they have removed the wind warning which is a tad bit strange when you guys are saying the winds in places will be off the charts

maw368

maquiladora

Thats the snow alert.

UKMO have taken down the wind warning so they must be updating it now.

Winger_PL

I can't understand how their warning mentions snow but no winds?

EDIT: actually it does, missed it the first time, don't ask how.

Issued at - 06 Dec 2011, 16:45
Valid from - 08 Dec 2011, 18:00
Valid to - 09 Dec 2011, 23:59

Snow showers are expected late on Thursday and through Friday. The public should be aware that these will be heavy at times, and may give significant accumulations that could disrupt travel. Gale or severe gale force northwesterly winds will accompany the snow showers, perhaps leading to drifting over high ground, but these winds will slowly moderate during Friday.

maw368

as you can see, compared to someones earlier link to the Met Office with a snow and wind warnings. They have now changed their minds.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Incredible winds throughout Ulster at midday tomorrow.

Not too dissimilar to Storm Carmen on 10 November 2010

Not too dissimilar at all although the strongest zone of winds seems more concentrated within the southern and western flanks with this one. Interesting times ahead.

maquiladora

UKMO now have a red, High Warning for parts of Scotland. The highest level warning that the can UKMO issue.

Medium (Be Prepared) for a larger area including NI.

The high warning for wind is defined here :

Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.
Risk to personal safety from flying debris.
Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power.
Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/advice/

Red Warning of Wind08 Dec 2011, 10:00
Issued at - 07 Dec 2011, 11:41
Valid from - 08 Dec 2011, 10:00
Valid to - 09 Dec 2011, 06:00

Winds will increase during Thursday morning with severe gales developing across many northern and central parts of the UK, and some particularly damaging storm force winds likely to affect parts of the north, including some major population centres in Scotland.

The risk of disruption is considered highest across central and southern Scotland where the police are advising that conditions for travel will be extremely poor and that travellers are likely to experience significant delays.

Winds should tend to ease from the west on Thursday night with the severe gales becoming confined to NE Scotland by the early hours of Friday.

Heavy rain and hill snow are additional hazards that will accompany the gales (see our snow warnings for details).



The public are advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

premiercad

There could be a sting in the tail of this one!
Very close for comfort and if it dips further south....

Midnight thursday

faktisperminute

NICE SOME CHANCE FOR SNOW HERE just like last year we got a lot of snow/graupel around 15cm or so from the strom even though rain was forecast.

maquiladora

UKMO forecasting 130 mph (210 kph) gusts for West Highland mountains. :eek:

Anyone fancy some hillclimbing?

Pangea

maw368 wrote: »

I have a very low opinion of the Met Office but if what you guys are saying is true, then The Met Office may as well stop operating because they did have a wind warning for the UK this morning but at this very moment in time they have removed the wind warning which is a tad bit strange when you guys are saying the winds in places will be off the charts

Not sure were you are getting that from, they still have warnings on their website.
Just seen the bbc forecast, the warnings were directed for Scotland, didnt mention NI too much.

Is this going to be a typical storm for the NW i.e. 120km- 130km gusts
Or will it be worse?

RazorT

Met Eireann have just issued this warning.

Weather Warning

Issued at 07 December 2011 - 12:00
Weather Warning - Stormy Conditions
Extremely windy weather will develop later tonight and continue into mid-afternoon Thursday with stormy conditions expected across northern parts.
Gale force winds will gust 100 to 135 km/h, strongest along the north coast.
Heavy rain will accompany the winds followed by squally showers.

valid from 03:00 until 15:00 8/12/2011

RazorT

UKMO now have this out!

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Is this going to be a typical storm for the NW i.e. 120km- 130km gusts
Or will it be worse?

I've seen one gust forecast chart that had about 160 kph gusts just off the north coast. If it dips a bit further south/winds up being a bit more intense than forecast then it could be pretty severe for the north coastal areas but Scotland is most at risk of damaging winds as it stands now.

justy182

How come there is so much discrepency about the snow potential with this system? Met E dont mention it at all. The Met O have the potential for NI but many on here dont seem to be mentioning much snow potential in this system, just the winds. MTC on his forecast this morning said a possible 5-15cm in northern parts. Is it still unclear?

Pangea

MET UK removed their warning for snow in NI.

premiercad

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16068618