Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

Pangea

Even if there is accumulations of 5cms as expected, I suspect all this will melt tomorrow as temps are expected to be 3-6 from met eireann?

darkman2

Pangea wrote: »

Even if there is accumulations of 5cms as expected, I suspect all this will melt tomorrow as temps are expected to be 3-6 from met eireann?

It will melt quickly alright. The snow level will rise too. I don't think there will be much in the way of snow falling pretty much anywhere below 150m tomorrow. It seems as though the snow level will rise quickly as temperatures rise.

Su Campu

Darkman was wondering what I thought of some snow reports near sea level. With the exception of Belmullet, I am not that surprised, as all along I have said that the snowline would be generally 100 m, but possibly to all levels in isolated parts of the north in the squalliest of showers. There were some brief reports of that, but they pretty much turned back to sleet and rain, so the 100 m theory still held.

Regarding Belmullet, even if a shower is 95% rain, if there is any sign of snow in it, however brief, then that must be put in the report, as the most severe weather type is always given priority. I agree that it must have been in a brief downdraft, given its exposed location, as the other reports over the past 24 hrs have been rain or hail.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A couply wet snow showers earlier on which melted on impact. Slop!

Belmullet is reporting 'Recent Snow' on the 10 pm reports, with a temp of 6c and a Td of 3.6c. Trace amounts.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

In the 1 and 2 am synops this morning, the code used for present weather was 83, which by WMO definition (Page 417) is

"Shower(s) of Rain and Snow mixed, Slight"

which is really sleet, as there is no code for "Sleet" in the official list, and if they were purely of snow then Code 85 or 86 would have been used instead. I wonder if these are what are reported as the "Recent Snow", given that of the two types, snow must always be given preference, though I wonder why it's not just put down as "Recent Sleet" on met.ie then??

eskimocat

Come on 86!!!!
Thanks for that Su, very interesting...

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Darkman was wondering what I thought of some snow reports near sea level. With the exception of Belmullet, I am not that surprised, as all along I have said that the snowline would be generally 100 m, but possibly to all levels in isolated parts of the north in the squalliest of showers. There were some brief reports of that, but they pretty much turned back to sleet and rain, so the 100 m theory still held.

That is immediate west coasts which I always said were unlikely to see just snow.

I live a few meters above sea level here in the East near Malahide. My area had a snow shower last night. I am as close to sea level as you can get on the coast.

P.S that other thread I cannot understand why that has been closed. Now we are missing a forecast thread for this week. Which is Monday to Friday btw. Threads like that, IMO, should not be closed because a particular poster disagrees with the forecast. If said poster disagrees the least they can do is start a new thread with their own forecast for the week and put as much effort into it as the poster of the thread they wanted closed. Comes across as a bit ignorant really. If the forecast turns out to be wrong then it's best to discuss that after the time period of the forecast is over. That is the first time I have seen a forecast thread closed here before the time of the forecast expired.

WolfeIRE

Su/Dark, come on now. No need to argue about who was right and who was wrong. We are all winners here:o....well, except for the bloke on the right. Doesn't know his behind from his tennis elbow

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

That is immediate west coasts which I always said were unlikely to see just snow.

Me too, which is why I was baffled at it. Maybe the explanation above might be valid.

I live a few meters above sea level here in the East near Malahide. My area had a snow shower last night. I am as close to sea level as you can get on the coast.

By your own admission it was "just a flake, but a flake nonetheless". But yes, we have seen some snow make it to near sea level, albeit very briefly. On the whole though I would not call rain with brief intermittent snow on the snowline. For me, snowline means where precipitation is only falling as snow, and that for me was around 100 m and above.

P.S that other thread I cannot understand why that has been closed. Now we are missing a forecast thread for this week. Which is Monday to Friday btw. Threads like that, IMO, should not be closed because a particular poster disagrees with the forecast. If said poster disagrees the least they can do is start a new thread with their own forecast for the week and put as much effort into it as the poster of the thread they wanted closed. Comes across as a bit ignorant really. If the forecast turns out to be wrong then it's best to discuss that after the time period of the forecast is over. That is the first time I have seen a forecast thread closed here before the time of the forecast expired.

To open yet another thread would be a nightmare. Your one already wasn't really needed as it could well have been part of the Winter 2011/2012 discussion as it was a week away when you opened it, but it was let run all the same. As Wolf said, people are now posting all over the place, and seeing as the threat of the widespread frost looks like not materialising, it is best to close it and let people go back to the Winter 2011/1012 one to avoid confusion and keep things tidy.

WolfeIRE

darkman2 wrote: »

If said poster disagrees the least they can do is start a new thread with their own forecast for the week and put as much effort into it as the poster of the thread they wanted closed. Comes across as a bit ignorant really.

The words 'Turning progressively colder' 'frost' 'snow' and 'next week' - none of the above really pertain to what is coming during the coming week. The thread is misleading and gives Boards.ie users false hope regarding potential for snow. Now, that might be "a bit ignorant really".

darkman2

You are making a few assumptions there.

Firstly I stand 100% by that forecast. Secondly the period for that forecast is Monday to Friday.

The forecast period for that thread started literally 13 hours ago. If a mod has issues with the thread title - change the title.

And if a mod wants to set examples like that then they might aswell set it across the board and apply it to everyone. For example starting with this thread which is far less relevant then the one just closed.:rolleyes:

Also I look forward to yourself and Su dipping your toes in the water and actually giving your own forecasts. Inherently it is risky and it is very easy to be critical on the sidelines.

WolfeIRE

Boards is the number one forum destination in Ireland for anyone interested in finding out about what's in store on the weather front. My opinion is that those with some knowledge of weather who start threads, moderate threads and who regularly contribute to threads should consider that the majority of users come here for information and contrasting, well-informed opinions. When a thread is misleading, it is important to correct this.

And I don't agree with you on this thread being closed now. Snow is still falling at times in higher parts of Ulster and Connacht.

darkman2 wrote: »

You are making a few assumptions there.

They are not assumptions. All model guidance points to last night and today being the coldest period of the week. Friday may come close.

Met Eireann's forecast suggests this
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

"Also I look forward to yourself and Su dipping your toes in the water and actually giving your own forecasts. Inherently it is risky and it is very easy to be critical on the sidelines."

We do. We are just not that interested in the race to be the OP every time

darkman2

The behaviour from yourself and Su this morning is no less then insulting to me. You have my thread closed because a thread title was not changed and you think the forecast is not correct (because what would I know?) and you then go on to justify leaving another thread open, the premise of which, is far more incorrect then anything in my forecast. MT will be the first to tell you that and spot the inconsistency.

Not only that you then go on to attempt to validate my previous forecast assumptions by telling me now it might be cold on Thursday or Friday? After the thread has been closed!? Did I not say that last week? Was that not in the forecast thread that has just been closed? Coincidentally it will be more then "cold" by the end of the week as was in that thread.

And by the way I don't like your inference that I went out to mislead anybody. Why would I do that? If any forecast I make is wrong then fine! Criticise away. I have no problem with that. But don't make me out to be an idiot criticising me in advance of the period forecast number 1 and number 2 go on to validate it with some forecast of your on!:rolleyes:

That is a dismissive and ignorant way to act. It really is.

darkman2

WolfeIRE wrote: »

We do. We are just not that interested in the race to be the OP every time

No, you don't. You are either not capable or not interested.

snow ghost

Personally, I saw nothing wrong with darkman's thread.

I do however note a seeming bias creeping in towards what is deemed acceptable weather related posts / threads and if it does not suit that certain bias it is dismissed in terms of being closed, moved or deleted.

This is becoming tedious and is likely to deter people from coming here and starting new threads.

WolfeIRE

Enough of the Keyboard Commando antics. It's silly. We are all here for weather, not virtual squabbling.

Back on topic.

Here is a vid from Mark Vogan on last night's snow near Glasgow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl3TWwabbSk

Iancar29

Anyone know the best case scenerio for the shower from a NW flow to keep the strength passing through the country?, rather then them just being big hefty feckers... haha

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I would have to agree that there was no point in closing the other thread as it dealt with the whole week while this one ends today !

Anyway, not trying to drag this on. Lets all be friends

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone know the best case scenerio for the shower from a NW flow to keep the strength passing through the country?, rather then them just being big hefty feckers... haha

This isn't technical but wouldn't it have to be going very fast :pac:

Lucreto

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Enough of the Keyboard Commando antics. It's silly. We are all here for weather, not virtual squabbling.

Back on topic.

Here is a vid from Mark Vogan on last night's snow near Glasgow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl3TWwabbSk

Mark is rubbing it in.

I want snow.

I was watching the temperature go down to 0.8c at 11pm and I checked again around 1am it was 1.7c.

WolfeIRE

Lucreto wrote: »

I was watching the temperature go down to 0.8c at 11pm and I checked again around 1pm it was 1.7c.

It was 3c at 3pm with moderate sleet/hail showers where I am yesterday. At midnight it was 4.5c and raining. Must watch 'The Man Who Went Up A Hill and Came Down A Mountain' to get some tips on how to improve my altitude.

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

This isn't technical but wouldn't it have to be going very fast :pac:

But say is the Dew point is colder than the air temp , and say the shower is going at speed.... then would it not just loose its energy even quicker then?

Is it no like rubbing your hand while drying them to dry them quicker? :rolleyes:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

But say is the Dew point is colder than the air temp , and say the shower is going at speed.... then would it not just loose its energy even quicker then?

Is it no like rubbing your hand while drying them to dry them quicker? :rolleyes:

Not if you use a Dyson Airblade :cool:

zara100

Have to agree i used to enjoy this forum

darkman2

t|nt|n wrote: »

I would have to agree that there was no point in closing the other thread as it dealt with the whole week while this one ends today !

Indeed. Now I am going to open a whole new thread to deal with the end of the week something already catered for in the other one. Go figure.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

darkman2 wrote: »

Indeed. Now I am going to open a whole new thread to deal with the end of the week something already catered for in the other one. Go figure.

Its win win !! Everyone loves a good DM2 thread !!

Go forth and open !!! :pac:

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

Not if you use a Dyson Airblade :cool:

Now im confused! haha


But seriously ... is there any day time heating needed or anything, wider temp spread ... or indeed just high flow rate?

howlinwolf

i think darkman is spot on, his thread was as valid if not more so than this one...clearly we have not got a snow event for 4and 5 of december ...bar a few places in ulster and connacht up in the hills... and his thread was for the whole week ...admittly it doesnt look like being very cold this weekend but as a lot of people say on here the models upgrade downgrade all the time leading up to the time involved. at least let the thread run up until the time specifed in the thread and see what happens ...it gets everybody talking and thats surely what this site is all about,and if it turns out darkmans thread was way off im sure he is big enough to take the criticism and slagging that comes his way.

anyway rant over sorry for goin on:rolleyes:

p.s. im kinda glad we didnt see snow cause it was a nightmare drivin to work in it last year, i want the snow for the 2 weeks im off over christmas:)

WolfeIRE

Another vid from Mark Vogan today. Taken north of Glasgow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r8nTIPDpts

Su Campu

Right darkman, I've opened back up your thread so now please stop the insults.

Everyone, stay on topic.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

In the 1 and 2 am synops this morning, the code used for present weather was 83, which by WMO definition (Page 417) is
which is really sleet, as there is no code for "Sleet" in the official list, and if they were purely of snow then Code 85 or 86 would have been used instead. I wonder if these are what are reported as the "Recent Snow", given that of the two types, snow must always be given preference, though I wonder why it's not just put down as "Recent Sleet" on met.ie then??

I suppose with the term 'sleet' having different connotations in various parts of the world it was probably wise not to include it in the WMO definitions. But yep, it really is odd why met.ie used 'recent snow' in the report when it was obviously sleet by our standards. I am flummoxed anyways!