Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

ednwireland

bb1234567 wrote: »

so is snow really coming ye? how much and how long will it last, will dublin be affected? please reply:)

i tempted to say 3-6ft in about 5 mins but i wont

2.9 c up here at the moment though no snow

M.T. Cranium

Well, since this thread was started the prospects of strong winds have been pushed back into next week, but the cold is definitely going to become a factor and I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week.

The chances for Dublin and most of the south and east (away from higher terrain) would appear to be slight but not zero, there could be some reports of snow but little if any accumulation in the situation depicted for Sunday and Monday.

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS has shown some strong wind possibilities for mid-week and later in the week, which once again need to be taken with caution; the 18z GFS run has the reputation of being the "pub run" over on Net-weather, I'm not sure if that's because people find it when they get home from the pub, or because it looks like it just came from the pub.

I always thought it might be the latter of those. Anyway, the long interval of mild weather (mid-Sept to almost end of Nov) seems to be over and we now are looking at a near- or slightly below-normal regime with variations taking temperatures well below normal at times.

It does look like a pattern that could revert to very mild briefly at some point because of ebbs and flows in the jet stream, but also a pattern that could shift further south and open the floodgates to stronger winter setups.

tzfrantic

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, since this thread was started the prospects of strong winds have been pushed back into next week, but the cold is definitely going to become a factor and I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week.

The chances for Dublin and most of the south and east (away from higher terrain) would appear to be slight but not zero, there could be some reports of snow but little if any accumulation in the situation depicted for Sunday and Monday.

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS has shown some strong wind possibilities for mid-week and later in the week, which once again need to be taken with caution; the 18z GFS run has the reputation of being the "pub run" over on Net-weather, I'm not sure if that's because people find it when they get home from the pub, or because it looks like it just came from the pub.

I always thought it might be the latter of those. Anyway, the long interval of mild weather (mid-Sept to almost end of Nov) seems to be over and we now are looking at a near- or slightly below-normal regime with variations taking temperatures well below normal at times.

It does look like a pattern that could revert to very mild briefly at some point because of ebbs and flows in the jet stream, but also a pattern that could shift further south and open the floodgates to stronger winter setups.

will cavan get snow

TheInquisitor

tzfrantic wrote: »

will cavan get snow

no everywhere else but caaavvvaaan

Su Campu

tzfrantic wrote: »

will cavan get snow

Please read his post before asking that question. If everybody comes on asking will they get snow in their location then things will become unreadable.

He said "I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday. There appear to be further opportunities developing later in the week." That pretty much answers your question.

Musicman2000

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Sorry to be off topic but just noticed what you said about USA, are you talking short term? I'm heading over to New York in 10 days and would love to see some snow!!

Mt will keep you updated http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=154

konman

will it snow here, will it snow there, will it snow anywhere, will it snow everywhere. folks read the threads and look at the model runs and maybe learn something in the process.
rant over sorry.

Su Campu

18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

maquiladora

tzfrantic wrote: »

will cavan get snow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_gst-Ryh3g

smallwonder

Su Campu wrote: »

18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

Is that the pub run MT referred to? If so let me get myself a hot whiskey and pull up by the open fire cos it looks like I'll be having a whitey:D

NIALL D

Su Campu wrote: »

18Z GFS for 06Z Monday morning.

how do i find out what all those symbols mean that are on the chart ^^ grays and greens etc

thanks

Trogdor

NIALL D wrote: »

how do i find out what all those symbols mean that are on the chart ^^ grays and greens etc

thanks

This should explain all
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=6&INFO=1&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0

Dotsie~tmp

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Models are increasingly pointing to the likely development of a very windy and cold period this weekend. Friday will see the gradual ramping up of a west to northwest wind in the 30-50 mph range but it will remain mild enough to prevent snow except perhaps on summits.

By Saturday, the parent low in the region near the Faeroes deepens further and colder air gradually works into the circulation as winds increase further to about 40-60 mph from the west-northwest. The snow line could come down in elevation especially across Donegal, Mayo and other parts of the north and west, to about 300m.

Then by Sunday further development takes place with the low transferring a deep centre southeast across Scotland into the North Sea. This will lead to severe gales in many parts of Ireland and Britain, and it will be cold enough for mixed wintry showers (at sea level, temps will be 3-5 C, at 300m near freezing) of hail and snow -- there could be some heavy snow amounts in northwest facing coastal regions similar to last December's Greenland express although it won't be quite as sustained or intense. As usual in these situations, the effects will be less dramatic towards the east and south but anyone planning to travel to the UK might want to consider the possibility of disruptions to road and air travel due to wind and local snowfalls. It looks particularly bad on the 18z GFS run for Yorkshire and East Anglia with a hurricane force storm in the North Sea. Winds over Ireland are likely to peak at around 50-70 mph given the model run and reasonable subjective tweaking of the output based on second-order factors (such as research energy peaks and sea surface temperatures).

This outlook may be revised rather substantially depending on the output of the more reliable 00z model runs. However, it has been "in the works" for several days and fits the developing global circulation which is seeing widespread intensification of zonal flow combined with an expanding arctic circulation of unusual intensity for this stage of the season.

This trend looks likely to reload around the 10th to 12th when more severe gales may develop at the full moon, with associated storm surge potential (just as a long-distance heads up).

I cant stand this outrageous theft any longer. This so called MT Cranium person has stolen my forecast almost word for word from my earlier post.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056342618

Mods? anyone?

MiNdGaM3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would say that most of Connacht, Ulster and parts of north and west Leinster can expect a coating of snow at times especially later Sunday and Monday.

No mention of Munster in your forecast MT?



:pac:

pistolpetes11

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

No mention of Munster in your forecast MT?



:pac:

Sure it nearly a given nothing decent will happen down that neck of the woods :pac::pac::pac:

mickger844posts

GFS 0Z run looking interesting for some Sunday evening and Monday.

justy182

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 0Z run looking interesting for some Sunday evening and Monday.

Just wondering about the size of this event. Accumulation amounts havent been mentioned as yet. Could anyone offer an opinion or maybe it's too soon for that or none worthwhile?

jo06555

mickger844posts wrote: »

Finally something of interest to get our teeth into. I don't expect any snow in Waterford but i'm jumping on the first Roller Coaster of the Winter All aboard

It will skip us as usual by that top chart its stopping just as it hits waterfords border typical

mickger844posts

jo06555 wrote: »

It will skip us as usual by that top chart its stopping just as it hits waterfords border typical

I think amounts in general will be small. Mainly a high ground dusting in the North and West. I have a high confidence of nothing Wintry falling in Waterford. Even MT latest forecast is suggesting nothing at sea level anywhere.

justy182

Yes. It seems a bit of a roll back on previous statements. Just seems now to be just a higher terrain event if even that.

dsmythy

justy182 wrote: »

Just wondering about the size of this event. Accumulation amounts havent been mentioned as yet. Could anyone offer an opinion or maybe it's too soon for that or none worthwhile?

Looks like north-western hills will be the only ones to see any sort of snow accumulation. Maybe the odd flurry at sea level but that wet snow that disappears pretty quick after it has fallen. I'd say sleet shows will be the norm across the northwest/north and on hills further south.

WolfeIRE

Any snowfall likely to occur only above 300m or so in west Munster, Ulster, north Leinster and Connacht. The snowline may fall to lower levels in Donegal, Derry, Tyrone, Sligo and Fermanagh at times on Sunday eve through early Monday morn.

davidsr20

Postman from Donegal was just on 2 fm and it's not looking good for a bad winter, lock it up admin lol

gbee

davidsr20 wrote: »

Postman from Donegal was just on 2 fm and it's not looking good for a bad winter, lock it up admin lol

Garden centres open their doors, lay on extra staff and longer opening hours to facilitate the rush.

Wine Goddess

Lucreto wrote: »

My lampspost bulb has burnt out. I need to get it repaired quick. Who should I call?

Ghostbusters..........:pac::pac::pac:

(Just as useful.....)

redsteveireland

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Eirtricity Public lighting on 1850372772!! Ha!

Don't hold your breath, I called them 3 months ago and still nothing done.

Lucreto

redsteveireland wrote: »

Don't hold your breath, I called them 3 months ago and still nothing done.

Called them and now it is fixed:D

megatron989

Hope they didn't put one of those blue light bulbs in it, u stare at that thing long enough looking for snow and your likely gonna go blind!

rilz

Probably snow on higher ground - sleet at lower levels - But at least the cold is now pushing in:pac:

tylercollins

Northern Ireland Weather on facebook just posted this...

eather Watch Issued 02/12/2011. Valid from 04/12/2011 - Heavy snow showers are expected during Sunday afternoon and evening, Accumulations of up to 5 cm are possible to low levels and up to 10 cm or more on higher ground. Ice is likely to form on untreated roads & paths. This may lead to some travel disruption.

Please note this watch may be subject to changes & will be updated throughout the weekend.

Going by reading the posts on here, I'm thinking this person has slightly exagerated their forecast?