Potential for wind and snow (NW) 4th, 5th December - DISCUSSION ONLY

chrisjdoran

Pics from just now...

Deep Easterly

RTE Farming Forecast for the week ahead on after the news headlines at 1.20pm.

Not sure who is on duty today but here is my predictions as to who will say what about the snow potential:

Siobhan Ryan: Increasing risk of sleet & snow on high ground, coming down to lower levels later tonight but turning back to rain tomorrow.

Jean Byrne: Sleet or snow, mainly confined to high ground possibly at lower levels across the northern half of the country tonight.

Evelyn Cusack: Risk of snow falling at all levels and feeling very cold

Gerry Murphy: Sleet, possibly snow on high ground for a time.

dexter647

Deep Easterly wrote: »

RTE Farming Forecast for the week ahead on after the news headlines at 1.20pm.

Not sure who is on duty today but here is my predictions as to who will say what about the snow potential:

Siobhan Ryan: Increasing risk of sleet & snow on high ground, coming down to lower levels later tonight but turning back to rain tomorrow.

Jean Byrne: Sleet or snow, mainly confined to high ground possibly at lower levels across the northern half of the country tonight.

Evelyn Cusack: Risk of snow falling at all levels and feeling very cold

Gerry Murphy: Sleet, possibly snow on high ground for a time.

It's such a pity the eagle isn't doing the tv broadcasts anymore:(... Would love to hear what he might say about snow potential:D

WolfeIRE

Deep, you forgot

Michael Fish: There will be no storm tonight.
Piers Corbyn: It's been snowing since 27 November
James Madden: It never stopped snowing
Joe Bastardi: The northwest is gonna be slamdunked by some awesome 850 hpas
God: I'm not sure to be honest

irish1967

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Deep, you forgot

Michael Fish: There will be no storm tonight.
Piers Corbyn: It's been snowing since 27 November
James Madden: It never stopped snowing
Joe Bastardi: The northwest is gonna be slamdunked by some awesome 850 hpas
God: I'm not sure to be honest

Hmmm. No Coleraine ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Gives an idea of whats going on

snaps

clouds parted from conemarra mountains. Snow on top of them:-)

Su Campu

Met Éireann's Aviation chart for 1800Z shows a dividing line going from Mayo to south Down.

North of it, they forecast occasional/frequent hail/sleet showers, with isolated snow showers/ thunderstorms. Note: this area also includes Scotland and up almost as far as the Faroes.

South of it, they forecast occasional hail/sleet showers, with local snow showers in the north and on mountains.

snow ghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

RTE Farming Forecast for the week ahead on after the news headlines at 1.20pm.

Not sure who is on duty today

Enda is doing the weather forecast tonight after the 9 O'Cock news... Evelyn is doing a state of the nation address afterwards.

Deep Easterly

Pretty run of the mill forecast there from Jean Byrne. Risk of wintry showers over the next couple of days (esp N/NW) and again later on in the week before less cold weather sets in for the weekend.

SnowGhost wrote:

Enda is doing the weather forecast tonight after the 9 O'Cock news... Evelyn is doing a state of the nation address afterwards.

This I have to see! :eek:

Su Campu

From the latest TAFs, the one that stands out is Derry Eglington (near Coleraine!), which has a chance of HEAVY THUNDERSNOW this afternoon and this evening!!!

EGAE 041137Z 0412/0421 25014KT 9999 FEW012 SCT020
TEMPO 0412/0421 27018G28KT 3000 SHRAGS SHRASN BKN012CB
PROB30 TEMPO 0412/0421 1400 +TSSN=

Otherwise, sleet showers for the rest of the airports, but chance of show showers at Knock and Belfast City Airport tonight.

EIDW 041100Z 0412/0512 26017KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
TEMPO 0412/0418 29020G32KT 5000 SHRAGS SCT012 BKN018CB
TEMPO 0418/0420 29017G28KT 5000 -SHRASN SCT008 SCT018CB BKN020
TEMPO 0503/0508 29018G30KT -SHRASN SCT007 SCT018CB


EINN 041100Z 0412/0512 28015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
TEMPO 0412/0418 31018G30KT 5000 SHRAGS SCT010 BKN018CB
TEMPO 0419/0506 29017G28KT 5000 -SHRASN SCT007 SCT017CB BKN020


EICK 041100Z 0412/0512 28015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
TEMPO 0412/0418 32018G30KT SHRAGS SCT010 BKN018CB
TEMPO 0504/0508 29017G28KT -SHRASN SCT006 SCT017CB BKN020


EIKN 041100Z 0412/0512 28015KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020
TEMPO 0412/0512 31020G35KT 4000 SHRAGS SHRASN SCT007 BKN012CB
PROB40
TEMPO 0418/0510 1200 SHSN BKN003 BKN010CB


EGAA 041059Z 0412/0512 25012KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025
TEMPO 0412/0512 27018G28KT 3000 SHRAGS SHRASN BKN008 BKN012CB
PROB40
TEMPO 0417/0510 1400 SHSN BKN004 BKN012CB


EGAC 041101Z 0412/0421 25014KT 9999 FEW012 SCT025
PROB40
TEMPO 0412/0421 27018G28KT 3000 SHRAGS SHRASN BKN010CB
PROB30
TEMPO 0418/0421 1400 SHSN

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Coleraine gonna get buried

t|nt|n

t|nt|n wrote: »

Coleraine gonna get buried

wee Owen will be beside himself...

snow ghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This I have to see! :eek:

She'll probably just say High pressure from Germany and France is sweeping over the country which will draw a deep depression down from Iceland, then start smirking to herself as she lowers the price of alcohol to a 1 Euro a pint.

snow ghost

Jake1 wrote: »

wee Owen will be beside himself...

Didn't you hear? Owen had himself cryogenically frozen until the next winter of 1947 came around. :pac:

Su Campu

Measured thicknesses at 12Z today at both Castor Bay (Lough Neagh) and Valentia. I would look for 522 and 128.5, respectively, for snow at sea level.

Castor Bay
500-1000 hPa: 524.8 dam
850-1000 hPa: 130.1 dam

Valentia
500-1000 hPa: 534.0 dam
850-1000 hPa: 131.7 dam

Redsunset

MetOffice Forecast

Su Campu

Well, it appears from the 10Z synops that a snow shower was recorded between 9 and 10 am this morninig at both Belmullet and Connaught Airport (Knock). The synops include the code 26 for present weather, which is defined as "snow showers in the last hour but not at time of observation".

I wouldn't be surprised at Connaught Airport, but I'm a bit baffled at Belmullet. Here are the key conditions from the synops:

Time...Wind...Temp...Dewp...Current weather...SLP
09Z.....NW16...5.2.......3.0......Recent rain shwr....999.7
10Z.....W10.....4.7.......3.0......Recent snow shwr..999.7 (also nearby shower)
11Z.....NW14...5.1.......3.2......Recent rain shwr..1000.3

Must have been one hell of a violent but also quick shower to produce snow yet show temperature and dewpoint virtually unchanged after it.

Harps

Seems a bit odd all right looking at the temp and dp

How 'snowy' would it have to be in order to be classed as snow as opposed to sleet?

There's been a few borderline showers here of hail and very wet snow flakes but I'd still only class it as sleet. Is there an actual criteria or is it simply down to observation?

Redsunset

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sleety showers on the way for Dub ?

JanuarySnowstor

Told ye so!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

By the way, the 0 and -1 on that radar image are dewpoints

dsmythy

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Told ye so!!

Ya need snow not sleet

Su Campu

Harps wrote: »

Seems a bit odd all right looking at the temp and dp

How 'snowy' would it have to be in order to be classed as snow as opposed to sleet?

There's been a few borderline showers here of hail and very wet snow flakes but I'd still only class it as sleet. Is there an actual criteria or is it simply down to observation?

I think it's down to observation. There must be clearly visible whole flakes for it to be reported as snow, partial flakes with high liquid water content would be deemed sleet.

Regarding intensity, this is from WMO8:

Guide for approximating the intensity of snow:

Light: Snowflakes small and sparse; in the absence of other obscuring phenomena, snow at this intensity generally reduces visibility, but to no less than 1 000 m.
Moderate: Larger, more numerous flakes generally reducing visibility to between 400 and 1 000 m.
Heavy: Numerous flakes of all sizes generally reducing visibility to below 400 m.

Mayo_Boy

Would anyone be able to confirm if their will be snow for north mayo anytime during the night? All we had so far was hail/sleet

naughto

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Would anyone be able to confirm if their will be snow for north mayo anytime during the night? All we had so far was hail/sleet

thats like asking for the lotto numbers next week u will not know untill ists on the ground

Su Campu

None of the 2300Z TAFs forecast snow tomorrow, even at Knock. Only sleet and hail showers.

John mac

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Would anyone be able to confirm if their will be snow for north mayo anytime during the night? All we had so far was hail/sleet

your not living up neiphin so.

WolfeIRE

For those of you seeing snow tonight, enjoy it. It very well may be the last snowfall you will see for at least 7-10 days. The worst of the wintry weather will occur overnight and during the first half of Monday. The Thursday-Friday cold snap is not looking promising in terms of widespread wintry showers, with the exception of coastal counties in the west and north. Nighttime frosts may be severe on Wed, Thur nights also. Beyond that it will turn much milder over the weekend. Of course, models will upgrade and then downgrade in between but there is no sign of any significant wintry weather in the next week or more.

We look like remaining in this cold, mild, cold, mild... setup for the next 2 weeks at least with the nw and n being favoured to see any significant wintry weather.