Sinn Fein now second most popular party

Biggins

Sinn Fein is said now to be the second choice of the people in Ireland according to the Irish Times this morning:

Sinn Féin is now the second most popular party in the Republic, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

The survey reveals a substantial increase in support for the party on the back of Martin McGuinness’s presidential election campaign.

Sinn Féin is now narrowly ahead of the Labour Party and Fianna Fáil, with the party attracting almost the same support as Mr McGuinness.

Article continues... http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1007/breaking1.html

---

Not a surprising result.

Even if Martin McGuinness fails to get to the presidents office, his running is serving a second objective – higher profile for the SF organisation. This is a clear second and longer term objective. Anyone that cannot see is foolish – such as Fianna Fail - who some in it openly admit it was a mistake that they did not run a candidate for office. That person would have been doomed for failure but would have taken on (like clearly FG’s Mitchell whom I suspect is greatly in the race just to try put down SF) their opposition and kept their existence seen to still out there – if we like them too or not.

Sinn Fein do have long term objectives and have no doubt, they are determined to succeed.

If standing in a desert where there is no water – one if desperate and mad enough enough, might be tempted to drink the sand!

Given the next round of cuts/taxes/charges to come with the next bad budget - don't expect FG/Labour to maintain its support and people not wanting FF also, will look elsewhere in other directions!

---

Mods - I've reported myself.
I meant to post this in the main politics section.
I posted it in error in the elections section.

Could you move if ye feel its appropriate? Thanks and my apologies.

Joey the lips

Considering the irish times alignment with David Norris and its past ways of reporting stories "Sinn fein" related maybe hell has frozen over.

Or perhaps the editor is embarressed to be associated with David Norris.

Anyway with the amount of annoyence with and slandering crap by Fine gael and the lack of credability in the fianna fail dragon its easy to see why sinn fein will come out on top..

And just in time for the 100 celabration in 2016....Any one would think it was ment to be....

Beruthiel

Biggins wrote: »

Sinn Fein is said now to be the second choice of the people in Ireland according to the Irish Times this morning:

Terrifying prospect if that actually came to pass.

maccored

Beruthiel wrote: »

Terrifying prospect if that actually came to pass.

how so?

Will they hang on to such popularity is the question, but to say its a 'terrifying prospect' is a bit rash. they'd do a better job in government than the current and last shower.

Zubeneschamali

The death of Fianna Fáil will make Sinn Féin into the official opposition. Since FF hasn't quite finished killing itself, SF are just the Provisional opposition for now.

DrumSteve

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The death of Fianna Fáil will make Sinn Féin into the official opposition. Since FF hasn't quite finished killing itself, SF are just the Provisional opposition for now.

Nice choice of words there.

niallers1

All week we have been hearing from Pro FG/FF/Labour that Sinn Fein supporters are hijacking online polls.

Do those same people think that they have also manipulated this Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

Or could it just be that the online Polls are also correct.

I and others have said on a number of occasions that I/We do not vote SF but will be voting for MMcG .
I think there are lots more people out there thinking the same but this is horrifying some FG supporters who refuse to belive that non SF supporters will be voting for MMcG..

bleg

Yuck.

Though Xenophobic/Nationalistic parties are growing in support right across Europe.

niallers1

bleg wrote: »

Yuck.

Though Xenophobic/Nationalistic parties are growing in support right across Europe.

We are ahead of the curve in Ireland..We've already voted in the FG/Blueshirts..


Quote from Wiki
"The Blueshirts are sometimes described as "quasi-fascist",[1] and the extent to which they can be seen as the Irish equivalent of Hitler's Brownshirts and Mussolini's Blackshirts"

Biggins

bleg wrote: »

Yuck.

Though Xenophobic/Nationalistic parties are growing in support right across Europe.

People are also tied of the same old tired parties and their ways I suspect.
This constant switch one for the other as we have done for years, is just like a never ending game of musical chairs - which is fine in itself - but the same old methods of operation and often two faced treatment of the public in general is disconcerting to say the least.

When people are peed off, what can one expect but upheaval and change.
Eventually that change is bound to come in various guises.

Hippo

The 'second most popular party' makes for a good headline, but there are 3 parties within 3% of one another, in an opinion poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, so I wouldn't be reading too much into it just yet.

maccored

Hippo wrote: »

The 'second most popular party' makes for a good headline, but there are 3 parties within 3% of one another, in an opinion poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, so I wouldn't be reading too much into it just yet.

Its the 8% rise of SF and the drop in popularity of the other parties thats making the headline.

Liam Byrne

Biggins wrote: »

Given the next round of cuts/taxes/charges to come with the next bad budget - don't expect FG/Labour to maintain its support and people not wanting FF also, will look elsewhere in other directions!

Agreed. But there are limits to where we'll look.

Which is why some of us are hoping that your new party will be up and running by the time the next election comes around!

Otherwise some of us are faced with the option of independents or - well - nothing.

lugha

maccored wrote: »

how so?

Will they hang on to such popularity is the question, but to say its a 'terrifying prospect' is a bit rash. they'd do a better job in government than the current and last shower.

No they wouldn't. One positive I suppose about them being part of a future government is that it would put paid to the nonsense that there is a way out of out current mess that would involve hardship, and a lot of it, for the people. I actually suspect SF would be terrified by the prospect of being in government in the South anytime soon as they know (or quite possibly the don't!) that they will be found out.

Anyone who suggests that there is a painless way out of our current crisis is a knave and anyone who believes them is a fool.

No doubt, if and when, I imagine they will trot our the argument the use in the North about their being limited scope in terms of what they can do. Down here too lads. :cool:

sarumite

niallers1 wrote: »

We are ahead of the curve in Ireland..We've already voted in the FG/Blueshirts..


Quote from Wiki
"The Blueshirts are sometimes described as "quasi-fascist",[1] and the extent to which they can be seen as the Irish equivalent of Hitler's Brownshirts and Mussolini's Blackshirts"

Quoted from the same wiki source

"Formation 1932 Extinction 1933".

Not really in the here and now as far as relevance goes.

mike65

Subject to 3% +/- error rate so Sinn Fein could be on 15 and Labour on 20.

Fine Gael, 35 per cent (down three points)
Sinn Féin, 18 per cent (up eight points)
Labour, 17 per cent (down one point)
Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (down two points)
Green Party, 2 per cent (no change)
Independents/Others, 12 per cent (down two points).

Hard to know what to make of that list, the losses of the rest do indeed add up to an 8% increase, are we supposed to believe 3% switched from FG to SF? I guess we are.
The United Left Alliance must be rather disappointed, now should be their time rather than Sinn Feins.

Hippo

maccored wrote: »

Its the 8% rise of SF and the drop in popularity of the other parties thats making the headline.

The headlines, and the thread title would suggest otherwise. Nevertheless I take your point about the growth in support, I'm not denying that.

niallers1

sarumite wrote: »

Quoted from the same wiki source

"Formation 1932 Extinction 1933".

Not really in the here and now as far as relevance goes.

By the way FG have been conducting themselves /letting themselves down I would disagree.

phog

maccored wrote: »

how so?

Will they hang on to such popularity is the question, but to say its a 'terrifying prospect' is a bit rash. they'd do a better job in government than the current and last shower.

How would they, it's very easy be the party of dissent but they've shown in NI that they implement the cuts that they're so much against in the 26 counties.

sarumite

maccored wrote: »

how so?

Will they hang on to such popularity is the question, but to say its a 'terrifying prospect' is a bit rash. they'd do a better job in government than the current and last shower.

How so? You only have to listen to Pearse and realise that their economic policies are not fully thought out. They are a populist party who are happy to tell the people what they want to hear (Burn the bondholders etc). If they were to actually implement their economic policies they would be sitting in the docks with FF.

Lockstep

My thoughts:

FG and Labour must be fairly happy. Both are retaining relatively static support amidst a recession and austerity measures. FG retain their large lead on politics.
Sinn Féin must be happy but their votes are usually concentrated in certain areas and are skewed towards male voters. They are also not transfer friendly. While they are likely to do well, it's unlikely that they'll become the second largest party.
Fianna Fáíl must be reasonably happy that they are on 16%, given the last poll putting them on 10%.
Green support appears to have bottomed out.
Looks like bad news for the ULA if SF are clearing so much support given that they appeal to a similar voter. Independent support down although I wish the ULA were polled as a seperate entity (albeit they are not registered)

Not-bad news for everyone, great news for SF.

Interesting analysis of the results here

gizmo555

The Irish Times headline and article is misleading and the poll results don't support the main conclusion reached in the article.

The headline baldly states:

Poll shows Sinn Féin now second most popular party

It doesn't.

The article then commences:

Sinn Féin is now the second most popular party in the Republic, according to the latest Irish Times/ Ipsos MRBI poll.

At best, the poll shows it might be.

The support for SF is quoted as 18% and for Labour, 17%. There is a margin of error of +- three percentage points, so the SF support is anywhere between 21% and 15% and likewise Labour's is between 20% and 14%.

Even though the article does cite the margin of error, it doesn't acknowledge the logic of it in its conclusions. On these figures, SF could be anywhere from 7% ahead of Labour to 5% behind it.

This is typical of how political opinion polls are reported in all media - small differences in support, well within the margins of error, are amplified into "major" news stories to fill column inches and sell papers.

sarumite

niallers1 wrote: »

By the way FG have been conducting themselves /letting themselves down I would disagree.

So are you saying the blueshirts didn't disband in 1933?

maccored

phog wrote: »

How would they, it's very easy be the party of dissent but they've shown in NI that they implement the cuts that they're so much against in the 26 counties.

As you should be aware if you are commenting on such issues - the parties in the north have no control at all over finance. that is ruled from London. All parties though are working to getting those powers moved to Belfast.

bmaxi

IMO the decline of Labour is not unexpected and can only get worse. Their failure to address the needs and fears of their constituency will play into the hands of bully boy politicians like O'Snodaigh who can rant all day about social injustice while at the same time not having a notion or giving a fcuk about how to solve it. With the FF vote having migrated to FG, Labour is the most likely to lose out to SF, but if you're listening Eamonn and I doubt it, there's still time.

maccored

sarumite wrote: »

How so? You only have to listen to Pearse and realise that their economic policies are not fully thought out. They are a populist party who are happy to tell the people what they want to hear (Burn the bondholders etc). If they were to actually implement their economic policies they would be sitting in the docks with FF.

Again, if you actually studied what they were saying, rather than relying on what people say about what they were saying, you'd find their policies weren't that far off the mark.

Do you have any idea what they meant by burning bondholders? That conversation is dead as SF have agreed that its way too late at this stage, but you really need to understand what they were talking about first. There were specific bondholders they were referencing ... not all of them.

The only populist thing about SF is how people didnt not bother absorbing what SF were saying, instead relying on 'populist' media soundbytes that suited certain political ends. As they say, you can't educate bacon.

Bergkamp 10

Good news, just goes to show hopefully many people wont be swayed by the constant mud slinging in SFs direction, and told who and what to vote for by certain sections of the media.

Pride Fighter

Irish politics has been re-aligning for the past 2 years. It's clear to me FF are going extinct. The Labour Party, where it is strong, in greater Dublin trashed FF at the last general election. Now where Labour is weak, in rural Ireland and the Western seaboard SF are now taking the fight to FF there. FG have picked up uniform support off FF all over the country and are now the dominant party.

The way I see it is FG the largest party and a party that will always get above 60 seats.

Labour the next largest and a party that will always get above 30 seats. Labour will always do better than SF due to being far more transfer friendly than SF.

SF will always get above around 22 seats and if they ditch there Northern leadership such as Adams, could become more transfer friendly in the future and take the fight to Labour for second party.

FF will be below 14 seats always and the logical step for them is to disband and for them to merge between the 3 larger parties.

ULA will get 5-10

Greens will get 0-4.

Independents the rest.

What will interest me is if the current government takes a slight kicking, will FG enter coalition with SF? Could be on the cards in a few years.

niallers1

sarumite wrote: »

So are you saying the blueshirts didn't disband in 1933?

They haven't gone away you know:)

Bergkamp 10

I agree PF. The question in the future for SF is will they do a Labour and dump their only principles to get into government.

I would love to say they wont, but when the carrot of power is dangled in front of people silly decisions are made.

sarumite

maccored wrote: »

Again, if you actually studied what they were saying, rather than relying on what people say about what they were saying, you'd find their policies weren't that far off the mark.

Do you have any idea what they meant by burning bondholders? That conversation is dead as SF have agreed that its way too late at this stage, but you really need to understand what they were talking about first. There were specific bondholders they were referencing ... not all of them.

It's not exaclty a good start when you have to resort to crass assumptions. If we burned the bondholders SF wanted to, we were told that we would be considerd in technical defualt. PH's plan didn't actually make any provisions for the this. Furthermore they were still beating that drum (although to a slightly different tune as of Sept 2011)