Winter Charts 2011/2012

cherryghost

kittyn wrote: »

HOLY CRAP ...... Talk about being in the freezer....... Bring it on ( fingers, toes and everything else crossed for at least part of that to come off )

You have to understand that those temperatures are upper temperatures. You'll be looking at somewhere between -4 to -6, perhaps -7 in these circumstances. If you're looking at snow you ideally want -8 uppers and lower, and -4 will only give borderline stuff (sleet etc) with the exception of higher ground.

Still, the trends are all still there. I remember the big freeze in 2009 when the models were all over the place and only about 96 hours before some heavy falls and freezing temperatures did a pattern emerge in the runs.

Either way, it's all looking quite positive. My personal opinion is wait until this Saturday/Sunday at the very very earliest before thinking twice about the charts.

TheMilkyPirate

Not sure if I read your post correctly Enderman, Apologies if I haven't but that chart shows 98% of Ireland under -12 to -14 uppers, Not -4.

NIALL D

baraca wrote: »

Not sure if I read your post correctly Enderman, Apologies if I haven't but that chart shows 98% of Ireland under -12 to -14 uppers, Not -4.

thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...

TheMilkyPirate

NIALL D wrote: »

thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...

I realise that, What I didn't realise is that Enderman was obviously talking about ground temps.

pistolpetes11

NIALL D wrote: »

thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...

Thats why he said uppers , which is referred to the 850 hpa in these here parts

pistolpetes11

Il throw up one of these for the crack



Good night and god bless !

Sorry was supposed to go into FI thread

Duiske

Enderman wrote: »

Either way, it's all looking quite positive. My personal opinion is wait until this Saturday/Sunday at the very very earliest before thinking twice about the charts.

On the face of it this run looks far more positive than anything we've had so far this winter. But the ensemble tells a different story. The temp trend is downwards, but the operational is way out on its own.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Well well, whats this !

Snowmaker

Nabber

All the models seem to be down grading any possible high.

pistolpetes11

Where you looking for the high ?

Would greenland one do you

geetar

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Where you looking for the high ?

Would greenland one do you

im no weather expert, but i think the ideal would be a big high over Scandinavia and for ireland/uk to have a big low. correct me if im wrong

Nabber

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Where you looking for the high ?

Would greenland one do you

It would indeed. If Scandi high and a bay of biscay low fcame with it

GFS for same period

Redsunset

geetar wrote: »

im no weather expert, but i think the ideal would be a big high over Scandinavia and for ireland/uk to have a big low. correct me if im wrong

Nothing wrong with a good Scandi, has gave epic falls of snow in the past however Greenland high gave us the last prolonged cold spell with great snowfall in many parts of the east.

Just so you know in the future below I show the Geopotential heights and surface temps anomalies from 25th Nov 2010 to 8th Dec 2010,


Greenland Blocking High



Surface temps Anomalies of -6

Snowmaker

Hot snot, we're back in business!! in FI anyway

pistolpetes11

How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

Snowmaker

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

Several, I flick through them quickly so I'd be telling porkies if I gave you a number. One other showing a -12 850 temp over Ireland, quite a few flirting with -8s in/around the same time-frame but only for a brief period. Pressure charts not too ideal for wind direction and massive snowfall - just flurries and dry weather. One trend which cropped up a lot is the building of sustained cold over Eastern Europe, appearing on most charts. A common feature on this run too is the tug-of-war between Atlantic and Eastern influenced weather.... but go easy on me, I'm just new, and this is fantasy-land after all, not the Winter 2011/12 thread or cold spell prediction thread... so we're not really looking into establishing trends here are we? or are we??? ... I thought it was in the other threads we analyse trends and try to establish the when, where, and why... maybe? not?

WolfeIRE

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

I reckon 4-5 of the 20, Pete. Another 5 indicate a cold zonal setup (w-nw) , 4 favour a milder zonal setup (sw) and a further 6-7 suggest a cold setup (uppers -5 to -8 ), whether the source be easterly, northeasterly or northerly.

i.e. MT is correct when he says the situation is setup to be 50/50 in terms of it turning colder or our weather remaining under the direct influence of the jetstream

Speak Now

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

It's the light green line showing up here, out on it's own from Jan 20th to 24th timeframe.

Interesting to see the mean in F1 hitting -4/-5 uppers.

bb1234567

Where su campu these days?

Snowmaker

bb1234567 wrote: »

Where su campu these days?

Stepped down as moderator and taking a break (hopefully not gone for good, I need to learn more about atmospheric layers and thickness!) - suffered a bit of undeserved abuse from a few eejits and wasn't enjoying it too much.

pistolpetes11

bb1234567 wrote: »

Where su campu these days?

Taking a break after all the hassle received moderating the forum

leahyl

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Taking a break after all the hassle received moderating the forum

Aw really that's a shame Did he say that? I don't remember him leaving!

Snowmaker

Weather Forum Zero Tolerance Policy
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76282462&postcount=26

After Post #26 the thread should have been renamed as all posts after that are praising Su (and rightfully so) for his dedication and contribution.

cherryghost

Guys can we try to stay on topic? With much respect to Su and the other weather mods, I'm sure Su would be saying the same thing though

Snowmaker

Sorry Enderman, you're absolutely right.

Looking into the farther reaches of FI, 21st Jan onwards, there seems to be a good pattern on the GFS of very low temps setting up home in central and eastern Europe. I'd be quite satisfied to wait for the cold to build there for a while, then hope for a sustained easterly/north-easterly to manifest. Rather than to hope for a few brief cold incursions. So here's hoping for a bitter February! I don't think January will give anything to write home about at this stage, each run seems to be pushing the cold back by a day/two. IMHO.

Iancar29

I'll just leave this here to keep the flame from going out .. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

cherryghost

I told myself I wouldn't look at 18z but I did. Jesus christ

Duiske

Enderman wrote: »

Jesus christ

Even 'ol JC himself would be hard pushed to find any good in that run If that 168z comes off I'll be dragging on the t-shirt and spending a few hours in the garden.

Snowmaker

Haven't seen the 18z, 00z, 06z yet - and I have decided today to leave it until perhaps the 12z or 18z today. Pretty good memory of yesterday's earlier charts and it will be interesting to see the comparison just 24hours later. By the looks of the posts though it's not going to be a joyful experience.