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Winter Charts 2011/2012
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The contrast between the GFS and the ECM, GFS has totally written off any Greenland high linking up with Azores (Which by no id a UK & Ireland high
) for it's 14 day outlook.
Is the GFS all over the place, or is the ECM playing the SSW card too soon?
ECM
GFS
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Prays for snow.
See the chartsmaquiladora wrote: »
:eek:
Hey I prayed for a bit of snow not to be buried in a snow tomb like this.
I would love for this to happen in one sense make up for the horrible weather we are having.0 -
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Daniel2590 wrote: »Are those two Polar Lows?
Nope they're just the normal kind, well maybe not quite normal the central pressure in that low is quite exceptional! Polar lows are much smaller-scale features which I think are purely convective systems and much harder to forecast/detect because of this.
Looking at a few other charts from that run some people would definitely see some snow alright but it would still be marginal I'd say especially around coastal margins. The wind though...:eek: Although it's not much use trying to analyse these charts when they're so far out and almost certainly won't materialise anyway
EDIT: There's a good explanation of polar lows here
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Polar-low---the-arctic-hurricane.htm0 -
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maquiladora wrote: »
UMMMMMMM
It's even deeper than the winds that came through this week.
If that really does happen, then I suspect the people that have been worrying about the Isle of Man Shadow won't have too much to worry about for a while, the Isle of Man might come down again somewhere around Copenhagen.:D
Might be better if something this dramatic does stay in FI
This happened to us one year in Somerset, we came down one morning, and opened the door on the south western side, which was in a corner, and were faced by a wall of snow that was at least 2 Ft higher than the door. On the other side, more protected from the prevailing wind, and not in a corner, it was just under 3 Ft deep, and the car that I had parked on the "patch" next to the house at 10 pm the previous evening was buried up to the bottom of the windows. The front that had dumped that lot on us overnight got to about Salisbury and then was pushed back by the high pressure over Europe the next evening, so another dump, and after that had happened, the car could not as such be seen, but we knew where it was by the very large mound on the roof. Outside the dining room window, which was directly on to the road, we could see tarmac, but between us and the house opposite, which was about 20 Ft, there was a 6 Ft snowdrift, so NOTHING, not even military land rovers, moved down our road for several days:D. I think it was 78, but memory is getting a little vague about that long ago, and Google search is not as comprehensive that far back.
It cleared up after about 4 or 5 days, the weather warmed up and it all melted, but there were big piles of snow that had been moved by JCB's and the like that took longer to thaw. The thaw was so fast that some of the snow came off roofs like an avalanche, and there was a lot of ice in it, so anything under it at the time was well flattened. A couple of people had very close escapes when the local shop snow let go with no warning.
Another story from the same few days, a friend of our had a tracked bulldozer that got called on to clear some of the local roads, in that anything that could move was used. A few weeks later, he was driving home, and saw that the tops of the trees beside the road had been damaged by something, and when he thought about it, he realised that it was his machine that had done the damage, he's followed the phone wires home one afternoon, the tops of the poles and the wires were still visible, and he hadn't realised that at that point, when they'd put the poles in, they'd taken a shortcut across the top of a small gulley, to avoid a little bend in the road. It got his attention when he realised that the tops of the trees at the point where he's gone over them were nearly 35 Ft above the road level that he was then driving on! I drove past that point myself a few days later, and the damage was clearly visible where the tracks had broken off some of the branches at the top of the trees that were there. If I hadn't seen it, I would have found it hard to believe, but the evidence was clear, it was almost as though a hedge cutter had gone through at just that point.Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁
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Is that a pressure chart or a temperature chart? (excuse my ignorance)
If it's temperature then the really cold air on that chart still looks to be entrenched pretty far east and looks like it's more inclined to head south than west into the UK and Ireland :-(
As kippure mentioned it shows the 850hpa temperature in colour with a pressure overlay as well (white lines are isobars). If you follows the isobars round the pressure system you can see roughly what direction the air is moving. So from that particular chart we are stuck in a middle-ground of sorts just about outside the influence of the cold anticyclone over Western Russia there. Although it is very encouraging to see this kind of setup with lots of cold air pushing west.
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pistolpetes11 wrote: »
Thanks pistolpetes11! Yyyyeeeehhhh.... Just realised that now when I re-entered the thread. My first image post, still got my training wheels on... :-)0 -
A much easier way is to just click this thing and copy the 'Lien direct pour forums' link
Plenty of interesting stuff tonight with a high somewhere up north showing up frequently dragging extreme cold from the east, -16C on the Atlantic coast of France!
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If some of these charts become reality. it may well be that the Antrim coast is the area to be complaining about the Isle of Man shadow. That could be fun to watch
Have to admit, I think we're going to see some thought provoking weather if this comes about, and the models do seem to be coming together on some of this at the moment.
MT's comments on this are going to be more than interesting at some stage, given his track record and previous forecasts.
As several people have remarked recently, winter's far from over yet.Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁
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