Winter Charts 2011/2012

waytoowarm

fantasy might just become a reality soon

dsmythy

Can always rely on the GFS pub run to throw something at us

tylercollins

john mayo 10

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ensembles Eye Candy:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Now we have to hope the 12z follows suit !

I did read somewhere before that the 06z was notorious for being milder, anyone else ever hear this ?

Trotter

Are we still looking at a potential event that's as epic as we considered it might be in recent days?

Ive been bitten by the FI bug more than once in the past years and the usual path of epic - amazing - heavy showers - snow showers - some snowy sleet - wear a hat - to ... Meh it's a bit cold.. never stops me from getting wound up into snowmageddon potentials.

Basically I'm wondering is this still something different?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Still less than potential !

The models have been all over the place. This is the first "decent" run of the GFS in a while now.

The hope is that it is starting to pick up on signals and the trend continues.

Its model watching now to see if the trend continues and if it comes into the reliable timeframe.

Iancar29

10r bets all hell breaks loose when i fly off to Sweden!! haha!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

10r bets all hell breaks loose when i fly off to Sweden!! haha!

I hope you get +10 while we are buried in 10 feet of snow :pac:

Iancar29

t|nt|n wrote: »

I hope you get +10 while we are buried in 10 feet of snow :pac:

Dont worry, im quite sure ill find 10 ft of snow up there quite easily!! :P

THis webcam has had snow on it for over 2 weeks now straight.

http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1315334494-Weather-Vänortstorget-Kiruna

Ps.... SEE THE SNOW PILE IN THE BACKGROUND ?

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

Dont worry, im quite sure ill find 10 ft of snow up there quite easily!! :P

THis webcam has had snow on it for over 2 weeks now straight.

http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1315334494-Weather-Vänortstorget-Kiruna

Ps.... SEE THE SNOW PILE IN THE BACKGROUND ?

I hope you have a brilliant time Ian, sick with jealousy, and all , as I am...:o:D

all that snow...drooooool

Richierich1970

Hi , I'm new to the forum . Just trying to work out what Fi means ! . Could anyone enlighten me ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Fantasy Island - i.e. not likely to happen !! :pac:

Welcome to the forum

WolfeIRE

Richierich1970 wrote: »

Hi , I'm new to the forum . Just trying to work out what Fi means ! . Could anyone enlighten me ?

Hi Richie. It's a term used to describe the period in model reading where the charts become less than reliable...usually beyond 96hrs. It's referred to as Fantasy Island

Snowmaker

Richierich1970 wrote: »

Hi , I'm new to the forum . Just trying to work out what Fi means ! . Could anyone enlighten me ?

Fantasy Island - Charts depicting weather possibilities beyond 4-5 days where accurate predictions become a bit difficult/uncertain during times of active weather. The further out from today the more likely charts will change... making this thread a very exciting place to be as they can sometimes depict 'desirable' outcomes - such as extreme cold in winter (close eyes, pray to the snow godess - because the snow god appears to be idling these days).. :pac:

Elmer Blooker

Iancar29 wrote: »

Dont worry, im quite sure ill find 10 ft of snow up there quite easily!! :P

THis webcam has had snow on it for over 2 weeks now straight.

http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1315334494-Weather-Vänortstorget-Kiruna

Ps.... SEE THE SNOW PILE IN THE BACKGROUND ?

Are you going to this place where there's an ice hotel, it's very close to Kiruna.
It's dark now but click on historik, it looks like a really cool place (sorry for the pathetic pun!)
http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/icehotel/index.php
http://www.icehotel.com/

Trotter

Looking at the temperature and precip charts on the GFS Ensemble here.

If we hadnt got snow in 2010, we'd all be looking at those charts and needing valium.

The reserved, calm, 'wait and see' air of patience around this thread is amazing. We truly are getting good at this FI analysis

From the 14th to the 21st January, the charts do look somewhat awesome for snowlovers it seems. However Im not letting my hopes go up.

(Who am I kidding.. Ive a 1 year old that arrived just as the snow thawed last time and we have serious snow craic to have!! )

Tom Cruises Left Nut

It may seem calm, but if I don't see a trend starting then im gonna lose it soon !! :mad::(:rolleyes::eek::pac:

Trotter

Ok so lets look ahead to the next 24 hrs worth of FI charts.

Can anyone tell me, a chart amateur, what we would like to see on the GFS and Precips etc if this was to be an 'epic' event, or am I missing something that shows that such a possibility isnt really there?

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Ok so lets look ahead to the next 24 hrs worth of FI charts.

Can anyone tell me, a chart amateur, what we would like to see on the GFS and Precips etc if this was to be an 'epic' event, or am I missing something that shows that such a possibility isnt really there?

Blocking. High pressure over Greenland and extending down into the Atlantic to block out the typical mild Atlantic flow.

Snowmaker

+ high pressure over Scandinavia - feeding very cold air from the east into Ireland. 850hpa temps to be maximum -8C over Ireland (colder to our east) and minimum as low as they can go, for an 'epic' event. Then if it's not too much to ask, a tightly wound low pressure system from Bay of Biscay to magic itself out of nowhere and slam into the freezing cold air and drown us in white fluffy goodness... (whoa, dizzy, need to sit down... am getting a nosebleed)..

Calibos

Snowmaker wrote: »

+ high pressure over Scandinavia - feeding very cold air from the east into Ireland. 850hpa temps to be maximum -8C over Ireland (colder to our east) and minimum as low as they can go, for an 'epic' event. Then if it's not too much to ask, a tightly wound low pressure system from Bay of Biscay to magic itself out of nowhere and slam into the freezing cold air and drown us in white fluffy goodness... (whoa, dizzy, need to sit down... am getting a nosebleed)..

Thats pretty much what happened in January 2010 except we ended up on the wrong side of the battleground in the end. Literally until the rain started to fall we didn't know what way it was going to go. Given that it lashed rain for literally 48 hours, had the cold been more entrenched and the battleground over us we possbly would have had an '82 beater. In the end we had to make do with a few streamers off the Irish sea a week or so later IIRC.

rc28

Calibos wrote: »

Thats pretty much what happened in January 2010 except we ended up on the wrong side of the battleground in the end. Literally until the rain started to fall we didn't know what way it was going to go. Given that it lashed rain for literally 48 hours, had the cold been more entrenched and the battleground over us we possbly would have had an '82 beater. In the end we had to make do with a few streamers off the Irish sea a week or so later IIRC.

That's true - the Dublin/Wicklow mountains were absolutely plastered in exceptionally deep snow (some of the deepest I have seen in Ireland) and below 200m there was absolutely nothing. Very strong easterly winds too if I remember correctly. The week after the cold came properly and we had those Irish sea streamers which dumped a couple of inches of snow and hail which all lead to this. :-D

NIALL D

rc28 wrote: »

That's true - the Dublin/Wicklow mountains were absolutely plastered in exceptionally deep snow (some of the deepest I have seen in Ireland) and below 200m there was absolutely nothing. Very strong easterly winds too if I remember correctly. The week after the cold came properly and we had those Irish sea streamers which dumped a couple of inches of snow and hail which all lead to this. :-D

how deep ya talkin ???

John.Icy

Calibos wrote: »

In the end we had to make do with a few streamers off the Irish sea a week or so later IIRC.

Week of snow first, battleground then around the 11/12th, followed by a breakdown of some sorts.

EDIT: I see you're talking about the 28/29/3th Dec scenario. My mistake!

snowstreams

NIALL D wrote: »

how deep ya talkin ???

http://www.flickr.com/photos/snowstreams/4411039993/in/set-72157623442629735

Thats a link to some photos i took about 2 months after the January 2010 thaw. You can see that the snow is still about 5-6ft deep across that river, so i felt safe standing on it.
I have other photos somewhere, one is my friend standing beside a roadsign that is only just above the snow, it was about 3ft deep mostly but with drifts of alot more in places, 20ft even.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/snowstreams/4275271686/in/photostream/

This second link is the only photo i can find before the thaw. The photo to the right was the snow on the day that we got rain in dublin. It was still very wet snow in that photo at about 520m altitude but was getting drier.
To the left there a few more photos from after the thaw. Its a pity I cant find my original photos, I had far better photos that I never uploaded

DOCARCH

This picture was taken at the end of Jan 2010 near Sally Gap. Drifts were still 5 or 6ft deep at the side of the road.

IIRC, the majority of that snow fell in early Dec 2009 when there was a rain event at lower levels/in Dublin. At the time the snow fell, there were reports of 15ft snow drifts around Sally Gap.

rc28

NIALL D wrote: »

how deep ya talkin ???

The snow was up to my waist in most parts and the drifts were way taller than me!

BEASTERLY

rc28 wrote: »

That's true - the Dublin/Wicklow mountains were absolutely plastered in exceptionally deep snow (some of the deepest I have seen in Ireland) and below 200m there was absolutely nothing. Very strong easterly winds too if I remember correctly. The week after the cold came properly and we had those Irish sea streamers which dumped a couple of inches of snow and hail which all lead to this. :-D

Yep I witnessed the exact same thing in the Blackstairs, around the 30th December? Very heavy snow and strong easterly winds, waist depth snow. Great craic, below 250m rain and floods!