Winter Charts 2011/2012

megatron989

Personally I look for trends in fi to try work out the general direction things are moving. Depending on how far ahead you look you may get lower accuracy. It's more of a "might happen" than a "will happen"

dsmythy

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Its early days yet Conor, But a mini ice age, I agree with you pure rubbish, Things could start to get very intertesting come mid January to many people saying winter is finished anyone that says that is talking pure rubbish, and another update from James Madden I dont know what models he is reading:rolleyes:

Sunday 18th December 2011
White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow
After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.
Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.
As I stated in my 4th December update
I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.
A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated
What is The Big Question?
Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.
I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.
All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.
May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.
Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

So is Madden saying he was wrong or making silly excuses? Fair enough if it's the former, forecasting is a tough game, but I've no time for the latter. It wasn't even marginal.

Musicman2000

Way in FI but stil.....

darkman2

The possible results of a split polar vortex - see the thread for next week. Good times are on the horizon.:)

blackius

Looks like a dry toppler to me though with a few snow showers in Ulster only.
Pressure is too high and the angle of its dangle looks like fronts would be pulling rain from the NW eventually.
Sadly.
At least its first so we know its not what we'll get.

Nabber

High Pressure build up in north west Atlantic.
Could we be moving out of the westerly phase and into a Greenland linking up with the Atlantic high? The far depths of FI :cool:

Sponge Bob

Trotter wrote: »

Has an FI chart worked out to happen in Real Island with any accuracy in the recent past out of curiosity?

Absolutely, this thread starts with one that came true.

jimmy.d

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Absolutely, this thread starts with one that came true.

mild coulpe of days is not a heat wave so never came true:P

Sponge Bob

jimmy.d wrote: »

mild coulpe of days is not a heat wave so never came true:P

Hottest Christmas day on record in Ireland ...so nyah boo to your forecasting skillz and all Sponge Bob called it right at 13 days out.

jimmy.d

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hottest Christmas day on record in Ireland ...so nyah boo to your forecasting skillz and all Sponge Bob called it right at 13 days out.

no sponger the charts did not you now im not gona feed the troll anymore bye

Harps

Finally a nice Greenland High Think its the first time all month I've seen one

BEASTERLY

Harps wrote: »

Finally a nice Greenland High Think its the first time all month I've seen one

Sweet Jesus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Musicman2000

Would be nice to see that seup, but as long as the vortex is stuck over Greenland we could be waiting a while

pistolpetes11

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Would be nice to see that seup, but as long as the vortex is stuck over Greenland we could be waiting a while

Looking like its doing a bit of moving :

darkman2

We could do worse come the middle of January




A number of models in the last 24 hours have been picking up a height rise over Greenland around this time frame. Be interesting to see if this develops further. But it's out in cuckoo land for the moment.

John.Icy

Very similar set-up to the second spell in December 2010 right there, pity it's the CFS :D

BEASTERLY

This would be fun

Nabber

The models have played with a gReenland high linking up to the current Eire/UK & Iberian high. But it gets smashed by the incoming lows from the west. We end up with a pure westerly set up.

Harps

Some interesting signs showing up for mid January at the moment, first time all winter there's been any hint of a pattern change from the zonality we had all through December. Of course its all quite meaningless for the time being but at least a few models are seeing it as a feasible solution for the first time

0z ECMWF



6z GFS Control Run



Quite a few GFS ensemble runs also showing a cold end to their runs

Harps

GFS Control again looking nice

John.Icy

P1 does one better than the control :eek::D

DOCARCH

John.Icy wrote: »

P1 does one better than the control :eek::D

Beauty! Nice NE flow from Siberia/Arctic over a still relatively warm Irish Sea.

BEASTERLY

wing52

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Hey beasterly,what 850 temps would that little blocker give for us?

BEASTERLY

wing52 wrote: »

Hey beasterly,what 850 temps would that little blocker give for us?

-7/-8c, with lower arriving the longer we had this flow. It's source would mean low humidity and hence dew points so -7c would be plenty cold for snow.

Trotter

Whats the significance of the charts to our west there? Is it likely that the precip would come in from the west, with the cold air coming from the north east / east?

BEASTERLY

Trotter wrote: »

Whats the significance of the charts to our west there? Is it likely that the precip would come in from the west, with the cold air coming from the north east / east?

No. The charts show high pressure building to the north and west of us. This stops the conveyer belt of lows coming across and causes cold air to flow from the north or east. Most precipitation would be caused by convection from the irish sea in the chart above resulting in snow showers in the east. The scenario of precip coming from the west would result from a breakdown of the setup and would most likely bring frontal snow quickly changing to rain.

Trotter

BEASTERLY wrote: »

No. The charts show high pressure building to the north and west of us. This stops the conveyer belt of lows coming across and causes cold air to flow from the north or east. Most precipitation would be caused by convection from the irish sea in the chart above resulting in snow showers in the east. The scenario of precip coming from the west would result from a breakdown of the setup and would most likely bring frontal snow quickly changing to rain.

Ah I understand. Thanks! I'm on the South East coast and traditionally there's always been some level of 'protection' from the mountains a few miles to our north. This would seem to be a different ball game.

Irish Steve

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Most precipitation would be caused by convection from the irish sea in the chart above resulting in snow showers in the east.

Indeed, apart from one minor irritation that didn't get moved out of the way during the summer, despite dire threats from some people here:D

That wind direction would be perfect if it wasn't for that Danged Isle of Man Shadow :D:D

There is just the possibility that tonite's wind might move it a little bit for us if we're really lucky;)

It's well into fantasy for now, but certainly worth watching, the streamers off the Isle of Man last winter were interesting indeed, although I doubt that Dublin Airport Authority were quite so impressed with the effect of them on their operation, I hope they've got some new equipment in for this winter.

alfa beta

GEFS Ensemble showing a nice cold spell in the far reaches of Fi this morning - check it out from 264hrs on!

(not that it's gonna happen or anything!)