Winter Charts 2011/2012

nacho libre

Ambush Rebel 2010 wrote: »

The above link is not working for me

Strange. I can see it.

Here's the URL: http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVO89.gif

Saganist

nacho libre wrote: »

Strange. I can see it.

Here's the URL: http://www.weathercharts.net/noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVO89.gif

Not working for me either.

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVO89.gif on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Nice

nacho libre

Saganist wrote: »

Not working for me either.

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /noaa-ukmo-prognosis/PPVO89.gif on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

Damn.
Let's try again: http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

if you still can't see it, it's showing the 528 dam line down as far as Southern Ireland by Monday.

highdef

Indeed....next thursday is looking seriously tasty. Not to be too optimistic so I'll say it won't happen....reverse psychology and all that!!!

arctictree

highdef wrote: »

Indeed....next thursday is looking seriously tasty. Not to be too optimistic so I'll say it won't happen....reverse psychology and all that!!!

Yes, first decent widespread snow chart of the winter. It will change of course but good to see nonetheless.

only one

arctictree wrote: »

highdef wrote: »

Indeed....next thursday is looking seriously tasty. Not to be too optimistic so I'll say it won't happen....reverse psychology and all that!!!

Yes, first decent widespread snow chart of the winter. It will change of course but good to see nonetheless.

If it doesn't change would the south east get some of it?

Musicman2000

only one wrote: »

If it doesn't change would the south east get some of it?

More higher parts would and well inland, low levels would be sleet, really need -8 uppers to get anything decent

pistolpetes11

Of 384hrs on the 18Z, nearly 336hrs of that most of the Island is covered under subzero uppers , some nice ones around the 8,9,10th

Later stages breaks down into 12 hour segmants , but its mainly a cold run ,

1 Cold, 2 Mildish, 3,4,5,6, Cold, 7 mildish , 8, mild then cold, 9,10,11,12 cold , 13 cold then mild,14 Very Mild,15,16,17 cold

ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE OF COURSE

pistolpetes11

The downward trend continues ,

Looking at the 10 day outlook chart on GFS there might be a tiny bump back up over the next few days before it continues in its downward trend .

pistolpetes11

Bit of a mild end to this run , em actually she seems to be mostly above 0 form the 12th-18th but that way out in FI and subject change as per usual

WolfeIRE

Just had a look at the long range chart for next June. High pressure building from the continent and a 1-0 win for Ireland over Spain. It's FI so it probably won't come off :rolleyes:

shootie

How do you get that far in FI? Im a FI noob and the website is in French and I was never good at French in school .

WolfeIRE

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfse_cartes.php

Pour vous, Monsieur ou Mademoiselle Shootie!

shootie

Je vous remercie. Cher monsieur!

pistolpetes11

shootie wrote: »

How do you get that far in FI? Im a FI noob and the website is in French and I was never good at French in school .

If you use Google Chrome as your browser it wil give you an option to translate it into English

thetonynator

JMA reasonably nice(r) for Wednesday.



You know you're bored when you're looking through the JMA!

pistolpetes11

why is this a good chart ?

Coeurdepirate

As a weather noob, I don't understand the point in these charts. They always say that it's going to be -10 in Ireland when we all no it won't be since they rarely seem to be right, although that's just in my very, VERY uneducated opinion!

pistolpetes11

Coeurdepirate wrote: »

As a weather noob, I don't understand the point in these charts. They always say that it's going to be -10 in Ireland when we all no it won't be since they rarely seem to be right, although that's just in my very, VERY uneducated opinion!

The chart is not giving any upper temps on it , Has pressure readings and dam/thickness levels .

Although the UKMO charts do not go out past 72 hours on the 850hpa charts (Upper air temps ) this GFS chart would show the type of upper temps to be expected as the layout is somewhat similar

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The chart is not giving any upper temps on it , Has pressure readings and dam/thickness levels .

The charts you posted above don't have thickness on them, they have 500 geopotential and sea level pressure. The colours represent 500 geopotential, do not take these to mean thickness.

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

The charts you posted above don't have thickness on them, they have 500 geopotential and sea level pressure. The colours represent 500 geopotential, do not take these to mean thickness.

I am getting confused with the key at the bottom



Seems you are here , I am going to post up to charts from the same run but was wondering how they can be so far apart !

The really mild one



The really cold one

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I am getting confused with the key at the bottom



Seems you are here , I am going to post up to charts from the same run but was wondering how they can be so far apart !

That key shows the 500 hPa geopotential, it just happens to be in dam too. I think a lot of people seem to post these charts thinking that they're to do with thickness, and that if they see 528 or 522 then there's a good chance of snow, when in fact it means 5280 or 5220 m geopotential.

To get the thickness, you would substract the 1000 hPa geopotential from this. When surface pressure is less than 1000, that means that 1000 is below ground, and is therefore a negative value. When you subtract this negative from the 500 hPa geopotential, it actually adds to it instead (subtracting a negative number means change the two - signs to a +).

Confused even more now, eh?!

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

That key shows the 500 hPa geopotential, it just happens to be in dam too. I think a lot of people seem to post these charts thinking that they're to do with thickness, and that if they see 528 or 522 then there's a good chance of snow, when in fact it means 5280 or 5220 m geopotential.

To get the thickness, you would substract the 1000 hPa geopotential from this. When surface pressure is less than 1000, that means that 1000 is below ground, and is therefore a negative value. When you subtract this negative from the 500 hPa geopotential, it actually adds to it instead (subtracting a negative number means change the two - signs to a +).

Confused even more now, eh?!

Listening to James Maddens update , trying to read this , trying to understand both , my brain is in a muddle

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I am getting confused with the key at the bottom



Seems you are here , I am going to post up to charts from the same run but was wondering how they can be so far apart !

The really mild one



The really cold one

The first is the deterministic run, the "official" output. The second one is one of the peturbations of the ensemble, a lower resolution run intitiated with slightly different starting conditions. A load of these are run to see how close they are to eachother. If they are all showing a similar scenario, then we can be fairly confident that this could happen.

pistolpetes11

AO still trending down on the GFS :cool:





Ensembles have the little speed bum here or there but in general al good.

pistolpetes11

Cant get the chart to show on that post for some reason ! The 7 ,10 and 14 day forecasts looking really good , but does FI account for these type of charts also ?

ShytePryde

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Cant get the chart to show on that post for some reason ! The 7 ,10 and 14 day forecasts looking really good , but does FI account for these type of charts also ?

I don't understand these charts. To me that looks like consistently above average temps, but obviously I'm reading it wrong.

In the eternal words of double rainbow guy: What does it mean?

BEASTERLY

Ah fúck this im off to netweather, seriously its like a car forum where nobody knows the steering wheel from the brake pedal here for the last few weeks!

WolfeIRE

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ah fúck this im off to netweather, seriously its like a car forum where nobody knows the steering wheel from the brake pedal here for the last few weeks!