Winter Charts 2011/2012

BEASTERLY

t|nt|n wrote: »

Why has everything gone off topic since Beasterly arrived back

Legs it :pac:

Because yesterday i stormed off in a huff, and now im back they're all swarming around me making a big fuss so i wont leave again. Plus feck it, FI in the models are as much as a fantasy as that nightmare i had about Daniel o Donnell being in my house :eek: So this thread is free for now....

Ahorseofaman

Trotter wrote: »

Ive never seen anything like the GFS for 13th December.. Given that it never works out, I have to work on having the discipline to stop looking at it!

Show and tell?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

Show and tell?

pistolpetes11

Trotter wrote: »

Ive never seen anything like the GFS for 13th December.. Given that it never works out, I have to work on having the discipline to stop looking at it!

Am i missing something ?

MetLuver

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

TROLL :rolleyes::rolleyes:

You think!?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Am i missing something ?

The operational run is the one ya need to look at

iRooter

Lads/Lassies , whats the story , wheres the snow gone and whens it comin back ? :P

Tom Cruises Left Nut

iRooter wrote: »

Lads/Lassies , whats the story , wheres the snow gone and whens it comin back ? :P

Beasterly got so hot under the collar that it melted

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

The operational run is the one ya need to look at

Its not much better

Trotter

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Am i missing something ?

This is what I was looking at , as posted above.

Su Campu

He was trolling lads, plus refusing to follow the rules about duplicate threads and using text speak. We won't be seeing him for at least a year.

Now back on topic!

pistolpetes11

Trotter wrote: »

This is what I was looking at , as posted above.

Still not seeing it for the 13th , might come come through later on the run

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What does clever mean?

A great film paddy1.

BEASTERLY

Now that I have identified the cause ill do my best to control the symptoms, sorry folks!

Harps

Trotter wrote: »

This is what I was looking at , as posted above.

The colours on that chart aren't showing temperature, that would just be cool, wet and windy, a typical December's day.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Now that I have identified the cause ill do my best to control the symptoms, sorry folks!

Classic

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

Classic

Just on this , looking at a thread over on NW



Still no significant change in the stratosphere with the temperature in the mid stratosphere running far below average.

There are signs that the heart of the stratospheric vortex may be about to relocate to the Pacific sector following a period in the Atlantic sector.

Both the ECM and GFS suggest this by day 10 at both the 30 hPa and 100 hPa levels.





This tends to occur as part of the normal vortex reactions to wave changes and it is interesting that it is in these phases that if the vortex was weaker or the stratosphere warmer that a splitting would most likely occur. That is very unlikely presently.

If the stretching of the vortex is part of a relocation phase to the Pacific sector it will be interesting to see what could be allowed in the terms of height rises in the Atlantic sector. Too early to say presently.

nacho libre

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Now that I have identified the cause ill do my best to control the symptoms, sorry folks!

on a positive note the only way is up. according to the chief netweather forecaster, he's still confident of a significant turnaround come the middle of January.

ah pistolpetes11 got there before me.

BEASTERLY

nacho libre wrote: »

on a positive note the only way is up. according to the chief netweather forecaster, he's still confident of a significant turnaround come the middle of January.

ah pistolpetes11 got there before me.

Yeah spotted that as well, but its still worrying tbh. We don't have long to go till the moment of truth. I would say leave it for the next 10 days. But if around mid month we are not seeing major changes, ie: stratosphere warming, heights rising from greenland across to siberia, and AO and NAO showing real signs of going negative(not just moderating). If none of that is evident in about 10-15 days time it's game over in my opinion with just some dilutes short northerly topplers like today is the we'll get in January. And February, well we'll have a look at that in 5 weeks time.

nacho libre

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yeah spotted that as well, but its still worrying tbh. We don't have long to go till the moment of truth. I would say leave it for the next 10 days. But if around mid month we are not seeing major changes, ie: stratosphere warming, heights rising from greenland across to siberia, and AO and NAO showing real signs of going negative(not just moderating). If none of that is evident in about 10-15 days time it's game over in my opinion with just some dilutes short northerly topplers like today is the we'll get in January. And February, well we'll have a look at that in 5 weeks time.

Agreed. although it's possible to get an easterly with a strong polar vortex, if the core of it moves well west into Canada, but without a ssw event it's hard to see an easterly being maintained in that scenario.
That's why I may have to put Iancar29 on my ignore list when he goes off to the north of Scandinavia in January.

gally74

Have faith, nov was so warming feel mother nature will average things out, it ill happen,

Iancar29

nacho libre wrote: »

Agreed. although it's possible to get an easterly with a strong polar vortex, if the core of it moves well west into Canada, but without a ssw event it's hard to see an easterly being maintained in that scenario.
That's why I may have to put Iancar29 on my ignore list when he goes off to the north of Scandinavia in January.

" MUAHAHAHAHAHAAAA "

patneve2

ensembles going for very average conditions after the the next brief cold spell...in fact it's rare to see the white and red lines match like that :P

konman

The GFS and ECMWF seem to be somewhat agreeing on a tasty little storm from 13th to 16th. ECMWF have it on the 13th into 14th and GFS has it a little deeper on 14th to 16th. I think M.T eluded to a massive storm somewhere earlier on this thread or another in the same time frame.

pistolpetes11

Unlike McRiot in the winter thread I am liking what I see from the AO and NAO , it had been mentioned(by some forecasters) that it could start to dip after mid month and it seems to be trending in that direction.

The mean on the ensembles is encouraging ,

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Unlike McRiot in the winter thread I am liking what I see from the AO and NAO , it had been mentioned(by some forecasters) that it could start to dip after mid month and it seems to be trending in that direction.

The mean on the ensembles is encouraging ,

The thing is though, we've been on the brink of this drop for ages, allways getting pushed back, plus it's not forecast to go negative just less positive.:(

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The thing is though, we've been on the brink of this drop for ages, allways getting pushed back, plus it's not forecast to go negative just less positive.:(

The ensembles chart above has the mean going negative does it not ?

BEASTERLY

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The ensembles chart above has the mean going negative does it not ?

Sorry im taking the mean forecast as the yellow, is that correct?

The observed mean(black line) seems to be wrong for the last few days??

Here's a different chart which goes against the one above for the AO.

pistolpetes11

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Sorry im taking the mean forecast as the yellow, is that correct?

The observed mean(black line) seems to be wrong for the last few days??

Here's a different chart which goes against the one above for the AO.

I might be wrong but the ensembles take the highest and lowest possible outcomes and the black line is the mean , i might be picking this up incorrectly.

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I might be wrong but the ensembles take the highest and lowest possible outcomes and the black line is the mean , i might be picking this up incorrectly.

What Pistopetes 11 ?!!! I was under the illusion that you knew what you were doing !

Does anyone know how to ready those charts? And more importantly, confirm if the NAO and AO will go negative soon!