Winter Charts 2011/2012

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ah fúck this im off to netweather, seriously its like a car forum where nobody knows the steering wheel from the brake pedal here for the last few weeks!

BEASTERLY

Btw I would just like to state im not having a go at the regulars. It's the recent flood of the meteorological equivalent of tyre kickers that have made this forum unbearable, every thread clogged up with idiotic drivel!

I'll be back once the ban on noobs is in place!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11

ShytePryde wrote: »

I don't understand these charts. To me that looks like consistently above average temps, but obviously I'm reading it wrong.

In the eternal words of double rainbow guy: What does it mean?

There is no temps on the chart , its the Arctic Oscillation

Its trending to go towards a negative setting , not yet there but heading in the right direction ,

If it goes negative it opens up the possibilities for northern blocking which in turn would allow the cold air down towards us.

ShytePryde

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Btw I would just like to state im not having a go at the regulars. It's the recent flood of the meteorological equivalent of tyre kickers that have made this forum unbearable, every thread clogged up with idiotic drivel!

I'll be back once the ban on noobs is in place!

If you want to take a swipe at my post, then at least quote it.

pistolpetes11 wrote:

There is no temps on the chart , its the Arctic Oscillation

Its trending to go towards a negative setting , not yet there but heading in the right direction ,

If it goes negative it opens up the possibilities for northern blocking which in turn would allow the cold air down towards us.

Ah, thanks for the help. But in those charts, the bars seem to be moving ever further away from the negative. How do you read it exactly?

pistolpetes11

ShytePryde wrote: »

Ah, thanks for the help. But in those charts, the bars seem to be moving ever further away from the negative. How do you read it exactly?

The first chart with the bar is todays report , or whats to be expected for today(not 100% on that) , on the next charts all the bars are making a down ward movement (7 , 10, 14 days ahead) , At the the moment , we want it to get to a -1 or -2 AO for a chance at sustained cold , although this is just one of the variables but its seems to be be what a lot of the long range forecasters are basing there forcastes on.

You can read up a lot more on the AO and NAO here :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation

Chucky Norris

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The first chart with the bar is todays report , or whats to be expected for today(not 100% on that) , on the next charts all the bars are making a down ward movement (7 , 10, 14 days ahead) , At the the moment , we want it to get to a -1 or -2 AO for a chance at sustained cold , although this is just one of the variables but its seems to be be what a lot of the long range forecasters are basing there forcastes on.

You can read up a lot more on the AO and NAO here :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation

thats great info i aswell am a novice at these weather charts though improving what is the Ao temperature currently

Ahorseofaman

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ah fúck this im off to netweather, seriously its like a car forum where nobody knows the steering wheel from the brake pedal here for the last few weeks!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bG6b3V2MNxQ


pity, you are always a good contributer.speaking as a watcher for about 3-4 years (I changed user name during the hack) yes the will it snow in the bottom left hand corner of my garden posts are irritating but as you can see the mods are trying to get it in hand and hopefully, it wont be as bad as last year,but good luck and hope you come back soon.

pistolpetes11

Chucky Norris wrote: »

thats great info i aswell am a novice at these weather charts though improving what is the Ao temperature currently

The Arctic Oscillation is not measured in temperature its an index.

Here is the first paragraph of that Wiki page

The Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is an index (which varies over time with no particular periodicity) of the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level pressure variations north of 20N latitude, and it is characterized by pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic with the opposite anomalies centered about 37-45N.[1] The AO is believed by climatologists to be causally related to, and thus partially predictive of, weather patterns in locations many thousands of miles away, including many of the major population centers of Europe and North America. NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen explains the mechanism by which the AO affects weather at points so distant from the Arctic: "The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes." This zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperate latitudes was first identified by Edward Lorenz [2] and named in 1998 by David W.J. Thompson and John Michael Wallace.[3]

Chucky Norris

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The Arctic Oscillation is not measured in temperature its an index.

Here is the first paragraph of that Wiki page

The Arctic oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) is an index (which varies over time with no particular periodicity) of the dominant pattern of non-seasonal sea-level pressure variations north of 20N latitude, and it is characterized by pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic with the opposite anomalies centered about 37-45N.[1] The AO is believed by climatologists to be causally related to, and thus partially predictive of, weather patterns in locations many thousands of miles away, including many of the major population centers of Europe and North America. NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen explains the mechanism by which the AO affects weather at points so distant from the Arctic: "The degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes is related to the AO index, which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes." This zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperate latitudes was first identified by Edward Lorenz [2] and named in 1998 by David W.J. Thompson and John Michael Wallace.[3]

thanks im getting there :o:o

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I'll be back once the ban on noobs is in place!

All joking aside, everyone starts somewhere, I asked waaaayyyy more than my fair share of stupid questions over the last two years!

And it's perfectly natural to get more than normal amounts of questions when the weather gets interesting!

If someone is asking how to read a chart or something it's fine - everyone has to start somewhere, but obviously we all get sick of ''will it snow in Dublin 2 at 17.59 on 18th january cos I have to get my hair done on that evening''.

Trotter

Just looking through the FI charts on Meteociel. Am I right that they show a partial downgrade of cold in the southern half of the country for Thursday/Friday? I last saw them on Friday and it seemed to be ready to come further south in those runs.

WolfeIRE

That's correct Trotter. They will continue to chop and change with each run though. Anyone who reads charts appreciate how difficult a job Met Eireann and other forecasters have when it comes to weather beyond 3-4 days.

pistolpetes11

Trotter wrote: »

Just looking through the FI charts on Meteociel. Am I right that they show a partial downgrade of cold in the southern half of the country for Thursday/Friday? I last saw them on Friday and it seemed to be ready to come further south in those runs.

Doesnt look too bad , -6's country wide

Trotter

WolfeIRE wrote: »

That's correct Trotter. They will continue to chop and change with each run though. Anyone who reads charts appreciate how difficult a job Met Eireann and other forecasters have when it comes to weather beyond 3-4 days.

Cheers. Ah I'll check back Wednesday.. I learned last year that FI charts were like spending a week convincing yourself there was a box of celebrations in the press when in reality you know its far more likely that theres a special k bar and a half bottle of sweet chilli sauce.. like there always is.

pistolpetes11

Some -7 -8 on this one

TheMilkyPirate

Everybody starts some where, The forum title states this is a place where you can learn about the weather. Not somewhere you will be made feel like an idiot. if someone wants to ask basic (not stupid) questions then let them, Maybe try helping them under stand instead of being so condescending.

Iancar29

baraca wrote: »

Everybody starts some where, The forum title states this is a place where you can learn about the weather. Not somewhere you will be made feel like an idiot. if someone wants to ask basic (not stupid) questions then let them, Maybe try helping them under stand instead of being so condescending.

Dont forget their welcoming lolly pop!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

LOL

pistolpetes11

Another Tasty little number ,was showing a mild look here yesterday

Now most of the Country under -8's and the South and South East and Some of the east under -6,-7s

tylercollins

Mark Vogan could be right then...

faktisperminute

tylercollins wrote: »

Mark Vogan could be right then...

and what did he say?

WolfeIRE

He has signalled a change around the 15th whereby we will see some of that colder air to out north shifting south. He indicated that it would be slow process and no prolonged spell is likely until late Dec or early Jan.

pistolpetes11

Has the mean line gone negative here folks :eek:

pistolpetes11

Although she be touching a high index today , suppose it shows we can still get cold with a massive high reading on the index

pistolpetes11

Looks like the NAO might flip before the AO

darkman2

This would be a nice start to January;)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

darkman2 wrote: »

This would be a nice start to January;)

Sweet jaysus !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

THis would be fun too, right ?? :pac:

Speak Now

t|nt|n wrote: »

THis would be fun too, right ?? :pac:

Not sure Santa would agree :eek: