Winter 2011/2012

lord lucan

bb1234567 wrote: »

if the page was started in ireland then i bet it was actually somebody on boards!:D

It appeared on IWO's Facebook page. Has to be a Boardsie.

maquiladora

lord lucan wrote: »

It appeared on IWO's Facebook page. Has to be a Boardsie.

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

lord lucan

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

Strangely enough that was my first suspect.:pac:

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

if it wasn't for his post here i would have said it started with bb . . . .:P

Diamond Dust

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

Your spot on!

ff9999

Strange, I recall little or no snow between Winters 2000-2008, and was hardly disappointed, yet after last year I will be gutted if we don't get a White Christmas :rolleyes:

john mayo 10

we are only 13 days into winter and people are writing this winter off already. the weather can change in a matter of days and its december and january that are the main winter months anyway so stay positive:D

Caff Caff

john mayo 10 wrote: »

we are only 13 days into winter and people are writing this winter off already. the weather can change in a matter of days and its december and january that are the main winter months anyway so stay positive:D

Well... meteorologically speaking winter begins in December-March 1st. So it's not winter just yet. we will see a change from November 20th...well a significant one. some change to a cooler temp has already begun, although minutely. From the end of next week we may see a drop in temp which will bring morning frosts. It's more like November 2009 at the moment so let's not fret so early everyone and also let's not get the hopes up either. If there is significant snow, it will be closer to christmas. From the 15th of December I'd say. Roll on the snow!!

Caff Caff

According to Piers Corbyn in a response to the UK Met Offices long range forecast he said : Interesting! MetO will bend further but I should say that although the first ten days of November have been mild as we forecast the transition to cold is being delayed in the days 11-14th Nov (Confidence B = 75%).

The UK weather could, instead of gradually cooling wobble a bit and get cold as a relatively faster hit. We are entering a period when standard meteorology will thrash around all over the place - changing forecasts from day to day. We will send any updates to subscribers and give relevant statements here on CR.

This came from http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1694475/pg2

john mayo 10

in 2009 the cold snap didnt start till mid december so plenty of time yet,what happened last year in november rarely happens

mike65

Live image alert

Caff Caff

john mayo 10 wrote: »

in 2009 the cold snap didnt start till mid december so plenty of time yet,what happened last year in november rarely happens

Yes... and before that it was quite mild too. Last year it became mild at the end of Jan and Start of Feb.:cool:

Caff Caff

mike65 wrote: »

Live image alert

North Atlantic temp there would be 6-10 degrees. At 850hpa we would be looking at 4-0 degrees in Ireland anyway. That wouldn't be enough for snow but this model will change again later... or tomorrow... and then it'll change again... and again!...*sigh*

Caff Caff

Kippure

This is the week we should look at each model run and see how it chops and changes. Compare 00z to the next days 00z run etc. I think this week 18z will give some on here heart attacks and ramp fever. For what we read on all the forums the 27th on wards will see our winter start.......I think that modern meteorology will find it hard to keep track of what happens a couple of hours ahead. Fun model watching ahead. Keep it locked to boards weather.....:D

davidsr20

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Kippure

davidsr20 wrote: »

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Ive bought alot of long range forecasts. Its all good.

leahyl

Kippure wrote: »

This is the week we should look at each model run and see how it chops and changes. Compare 00z to the next days 00z run etc. I think this week 18z will give some on here heart attacks and ramp fever. For what we read on all the forums the 27th on wards will see our winter start.......I think that modern meteorology will find it hard to keep track of what happens a couple of hours ahead. Fun model watching ahead. Keep it locked to boards weather.....:D

Excellent, looking forward to all the near nervous breakdowns due to excitement!!

JFKIRELAND

@ Kippure, when you say you have bought a lot of long range forecasts - do you mean you believe in them or have actually handed over money for some - the only commercial ones I can think of are Corbyn and god bless him, Ken Ring!:D

Calibos

I'm getting more and more pessimistic about the chances of decent snow this year. November snow is a once in a 50 year thing is it not. The timing was the only reason we had snowmageddon last year. ie. early pronlonged arctic sourced air combined with sea surface temperatures that were still high made for explosive convection.

Assuming we get any 'pronlonged' arctic air this year its much more likely to happen January and February when SST's are lower and there won't be anywhere near the same amount of convection. I think the best we can hope for this year is a repeat of February '09 or January 2010 rather than November 2010. ie. Lots of ice days but little lying snow.

It seems we need a warm/cold frontal battle to get appreciable snow in the months after Christmas and unfortunately we just always seem to be on the wrong side of it.

Kippure

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

@ Kippure, when you say you have bought a lot of long range forecasts - do you mean you believe in them or have actually handed over money for some - the only commercial ones I can think of are Corbyn and god bless him, Ken Ring!:D

Just to clarify "over the years i have bought long range forecasts"

In relation to this winter i basing what i said on peirs forecast and what joe bastardi has said.

Handed money over like peirs site. Ive been following this forecaster for years. Yes and i beleve in his forecasts.

http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember.asp

And weather sites which have premium Access to charts etc. Netweather etc.

Plus the company i work for buys forecasts from independant sources.

Ive never bought a forecast from ken ring.


Plus im hoping to buy a commerical longe weather forecast of weatherbell. Money permitting.

JFKIRELAND

Thanks, just for the record I do pay for windguru professional forecasts myself. I'm not having a go - just a bit uninformed!!

Kippure

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Thanks, just for the record I do pay for windguru professional forecasts myself. I'm not having a go - just a bit uninformed!!

No worries mate

mcriot29

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

mcriot29

whats ken ring saying about this winter for ireland and uk
did he give a forecast out yet.
anyone have any info why joe b still has not put euro winter out yet.
i bought peirs jan forecast last year he way totally wrong said blizz etc for dublin all trough jan and there was no snow he was so wrong it was not funny plus he never mentioned that on his website saying he was wrong it was around 15e too rip of.
For someone who claims to be great my cat would have gave a better forecast and i know he will be wrong again this year with this 27th nov crap not a chance of it now i hope he is correct as i love snow but im afirad he wont be
joe b is only guy who got last year correct hes by far the worlds best

thetonynator

davidsr20 wrote: »

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Dec to Feb is a normal winter. Last winter was very early, and was over by Jan really.

A late winter would be no real cold until mid january or so,.

thetonynator

mcriot29 wrote: »

whats ken ring saying about this winter for ireland and uk
did he give a forecast out yet.
anyone have any info why joe b still has not put euro winter out yet.
i bought peirs jan forecast last year he way totally wrong said blizz etc for dublin all trough jan and there was no snow he was so wrong it was not funny plus he never mentioned that on his website saying he was wrong it was around 15e too rip of.
For someone who claims to be great my cat would have gave a better forecast and i know he will be wrong again this year with this 27th nov crap not a chance of it now i hope he is correct as i love snow but im afirad he wont be
joe b is only guy who got last year correct hes by far the worlds best

Ken Ring is a complete chancer with his long range forecast, I wouldn't pay any attention to what he has to say if i were you, I certainly wouldn't dream of paying for his forecasts!

As for Joe Bastardi (and Piers Corbyn) . . . .a stopped clock gets the time right twice a day. Keep forecasting the same thing and it'll eventually happen.

bb1234567

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

joe b has issued euro forecast and says itll be very cold and snowy and a memorable winter but less bad than last year:)

mcriot29

bb1234567 wrote: »

joe b has issued euro forecast and says itll be very cold and snowy and a memorable winter but less bad than last year:)

can you send me a link for joe b forecast or paste it here when did he put it out

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!