Winter 2011/2012

John.Icy

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Pretty nice ensembles on the 12z. Op run is still well out there on the mild outlier side of things way out in FI, but there's nice signs of a cooling trend in the coming weeks.

Heyes

Im getting married in two weeks, looks like ill need to worry about rain now and not snow :(:(

Scubadevils

Its gas human nature where as we were spoiled early last year we throw our toys out of the pram if we don't get at least the same or better the following year! As has been said, early days yet and the whole winter ahead of us - and from a sensible perspective it would be a lot better for the economy to ensure a good Christmas trade in retail etc... so an ideal scenario would be for the snow to hit about 8pm Christmas eve!

Heyes

A little nip in the air would be much nicer than the rain !!! Dont care if it doesnt snow till 8pm on xmas eve

maquiladora

Ugh, that 18Z GFS FI is depressing to look at.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Ugh, that 18Z GFS FI is depressing to look at.

It really is, 438 runs to go till Feb

On the plus side the wine is helping, the charts were nothing but blue ! :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Heyes wrote: »

Im getting married in two weeks, looks like ill need to worry about rain now and not snow :(:(

No snow, I'm not gonna marry you, trade the dress in baby. I'm off to the pub

Heyes

t|nt|n wrote: »

No snow, I'm not gonna marry you, trade the dress in baby. I'm off to the pub

Lol Ok that makes no sense

Just give me a dry cold day !! Perfection

bb1234567

i thought it was much nicer 2 years ago winter 09/10 when the snow came on new years night and lasted ages and we got an extended holiday! much better than all the snow early last year around nov and then into dec and you couldnt go anywhere before xmas or go shopping and travel plans were ruined. and the school days we got off were before xmas which i didnth think was as good as after xmas.the extra dyas off before xmas imo ruined the runup to xmas, there was no ecitement we just sat at home bored until xmas day which wasnt great and there was no build up of excitement. but in 09/10 we just got extended break after xmas. i know a white xmas is nice but as long as its just cold and frosty its fine, i just want the snow to be more in the jan-feb timeframe much better! maybe some light snow around xmas time then the snowmageddon on new years:Dthatd be great!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Heyes wrote: »

Lol Ok that makes no sense

Just give me a dry cold day !! Perfection

And a damp evening




* getting my coat

Heyes

t|nt|n wrote: »

And a damp evening




* getting my coat

haha start running :rolleyes:

lilzor

Heyes wrote: »

Im getting married in two weeks, looks like ill need to worry about rain now and not snow

congratulation ) hope you will have some nice snow and the pic will looks nice in it Also have a good time

WolfeIRE

From UKMO


UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Nov 2011 to Sunday 11 Dec 2011:

The end of November and start of December look set to see some rather changeable weather across the UK, with rain and wind for most parts at times, though some drier and brighter periods are also likely. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal norm and some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single figure maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the current mild spell.
Updated: 1139 on Sat 12 Nov 2011

Redsunset

WolfeIRE wrote: »

From UKMO


UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Nov 2011 to Sunday 11 Dec 2011:

The end of November and start of December look set to see some rather changeable weather across the UK, with rain and wind for most parts at times, though some drier and brighter periods are also likely. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal norm and some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single figure maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the current mild spell.
Updated: 1139 on Sat 12 Nov 2011

Sure i could write that myself,wind and rain with dry periods,well of course its not gonna be raining the whole time.And single figure maxima with some milder days,oh please,call that a forecast.And feel significantly colder than of late,well it should be it'll be approaching mid December.

I hope half the North Pole pours down and rubbishes that safe as houses forecast

mcriot29

View on ao index remember what goes up must come down so this plus ao index for next 2 weeks means warm for ireland and uk.
This is good i think the longer it stays mild the better we dont want the cold air here too early best time to get it would be late dec and jan as this is when ireland is at its coldest.
remember april and may where mild june july aug where cold sep oct nov mild so maybe dec or jan the cold will return in a dipping ao and nao best shot for cold is mid dec till feb
joe b and piers say dec
could winter 2011 12
be another 47 winter maybe it was very mild nov in 47

Lucreto

mcriot29 wrote: »

View on ao index remember what goes up must come down so this plus ao index for next 2 weeks means warm for ireland and uk.
This is good i think the longer it stays mild the better we dont want the cold air here too early best time to get it would be late dec and jan as this is when ireland is at its coldest.
remember april and may where mild june july aug where cold sep oct nov mild so maybe dec or jan the cold will return in a dipping ao and nao best shot for cold is mid dec till feb
joe b and piers say dec
could winter 2011 12
be another 47 winter maybe it was very mild nov in 47

I would rather like the snow to start a day or 2 before Christmas and last for a good while. Last year it was a pain trying to gather stuff for Christmas. I would rather snuggle down and watch it fall.

jimmy.d

winter only starts in december everyone. So snow lovers dont fret yet its only early days. What happened last november was a once in 100 years event so wont happen every year.
"We have heard the chimes at midnight". William Shakespeare weather online

I only usually begin to become worried about something when I hear the bell beginning to toll, is this is one of those moments? I appear to be facing a dilemma in preparing this forecast; will it go one way or the other? All the global model evidence is 'saying' one thing whilst the patterns which have been rather consistent for a while now are 'screaming' at the top of their voices another, do I listen to the 'voices' in my ear or go with the convictions?
High pressure for so long has blocked the eastward progress of Atlantic low pressure systems approaching the UK and has kept the flow from a relatively mild and benign direction, all the evidence from the forecast patterns in front of me show high pressure relocating, a much cooler regime establishing across the UK, this is at odds with many of the longer range global models, hence you may appreciate the headache? Perhaps I it may be that have 'stayed out too late' with old friend and can hear the 'bells ringing', for now though, I have to stick with my convictions.

*21/11/11 - 28/11/11*
It'll be here that It'll be 'make or break' time for the forecast as the 'block' to the east will be removed, a pressure build relocating, allowing low pressure to push through the UK.
It'll be unsettled and cool, sliding down the scale as time goes by into the colder category, a flow from the north and northeast turning the showers wintry over the higher parts of the north, a brisk wind everywhere accentuating the rather cold feeling.
High pressure is shown to be the dominant feature to the north or northwest a rather cold quadrant orientated flow persisting across all, a wintry flavour to the increasing scattered showers, winds falling lighter and variable in nature as pressure builds through western Britain.

*29/11/11 - 04/12/11*
High pressure looks as if it'll be slipping through the UK, so at least a few days of settled weather could be on the cards here, settling into a quiet and chilly regime. Mist and fog may become an overnight problem across many areas, this lingering as low cloud and murk in one or two favoured places, bright and pleasantly sunny where it clears.
Winds will be initially light and variable, although as the high slips into the near Continent a fresher southerly breeze will establish through western Britain, this ahead of increasing cloud brining some patchy rain through extreme western areas later.

*05/12/11- 10/12/11*
With high pressure slipping to the south and lower pressure to the north the UK should be seeing a mainly westerly orientated flow during this period.
Rain and strong winds will be affecting western Britain at first and this rather unsettled weather will extend quickly east and south through the period. Milder generally than of late and rather cloudy too for much of the time, later though cooler and showery rain will spread through all areas on a blustery wind, becoming colder through northern Britain as the fow swing into the north or northwest as low pressure clears eastward.

*11/12/11 - 19/12/11*
'Let battle commence' - It'll be around here that the pattern for the early part may be set, pressure should be rising to the north and northeast, extending a ridge into the UK, so all areas should settle but this at the expense of falling temperatures as colder Continental air feeds into Britain.
For the most part all areas should be settled, the usual early winter mix of cold and frosty, bright and sunny where this clears, overcast and dull where it persists being the order of the days. Atlantic low pressure may attempt to push into the southwest, throwing cloud and moisture in to the cold circulation, some threat of wintry precipitation across western and southern Britain occurring for a time.

:cool:

thetonynator

It says something about this autumn and how mild it has been that the nearest decent weather station near me, (Kilkenny weather) hasn't yet had a day with a single figure max temp. Exceptionally mild!

bb1234567

i know its only 'early days' but it is almost mid november, and this horrible mild weather is uninspirational for us cold lovers to say the least:( just holding out for mid december for the cold to start and then hopefully a very cold jan. god things change so quickly, over summer looked great for cold, then looking bad, then good,bad, last week great and then bad again this week, exhausting!:p

Gonzo

even in the magical 80s and early 90s most of the snow events we had were late December, January and early February, sometimes March. Last year's snowy November is definitately an exception to normal even in good winters.

BEASTERLY

Before everybody has a nervous breakdown let's just look at what early-mid november 2009 and 2010 brought:

2009

2010


And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

bb1234567

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Before everybody has a nervous breakdown let's just look at what early-mid november 2009 and 2010 brought:

2009

2010


And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

first good thing ive heard all day that gives me some confidenec in a cold winter, thanks:)

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

I just read over all of October and Novembers posts in the winter thread from last year, and apart from Ken Ring, everybody was very very positive!

blackius

Folks,there may be a cold winter ahead,there may be snow...
But expecting it on the same timeframe as last year is just ridiculous.

What we had last year so early is as rare as hens teeth.

Are any of you betting people? Because laws of randomness come in here and I would NOT be expecting snow to arrive based on what happened last year.
By all means keep model watching and hopecasting.
If significant building blocks fall into place,then thats the time to get excited.

Saganist

blackius wrote: »

Folks,there may be a cold winter ahead,there may be snow...
But expecting it on the same timeframe as last year is just ridiculous.

What we had last year so early is as rare as hens teeth.

Are any of you betting people? Because laws of randomness come in here and I would NOT be expecting snow to arrive based on what happened last year.
By all means keep model watching and hopecasting.
If significant building blocks fall into place,then thats the time to get excited.

Welcome to Boards.ie

lord lucan

OK,own up. Which one of the snowbunnies here started the "We want a freezing winter" Facebook group?

bb1234567

lord lucan wrote: »

OK,own up. Which one of the snowbunnies here started the "We want a freezing winter" Facebook group?

if the page was started in ireland then i bet it was actually somebody on boards!:D

Danno

That Weather Online forecast JimmyD put up earlier caught my eye... in years gone by I would have dismissed it straight off... I cannot remember any start to December that wasn't cold zonal... but then last year happened...

Diamond Dust

It was someone on here , don't want to name names

mike65

jimmy.d wrote: »

weather article stuff

Came from here http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20111112