Winter 2011/2012

BEASTERLY · 12-11-2011 8:10pm

Before everybody has a nervous breakdown let's just look at what early-mid november 2009 and 2010 brought:

2009

2010

And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

bb1234567 · 12-11-2011 9:14pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Before everybody has a nervous breakdown let's just look at what early-mid november 2009 and 2010 brought:

2009

2010

And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

first good thing ive heard all day that gives me some confidenec in a cold winter, thanks:)

thetonynator · 12-11-2011 9:43pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

And i distinctly remember reading 'winter is over!' posts in the november of both those years as well.

I just read over all of October and Novembers posts in the winter thread from last year, and apart from Ken Ring, everybody was very very positive!

blackius · 12-11-2011 9:46pm

Folks,there may be a cold winter ahead,there may be snow...
But expecting it on the same timeframe as last year is just ridiculous.

What we had last year so early is as rare as hens teeth.

Are any of you betting people? Because laws of randomness come in here and I would NOT be expecting snow to arrive based on what happened last year.
By all means keep model watching and hopecasting.
If significant building blocks fall into place,then thats the time to get excited.

Saganist · 12-11-2011 11:23pm

blackius wrote: »

Folks,there may be a cold winter ahead,there may be snow...
But expecting it on the same timeframe as last year is just ridiculous.

What we had last year so early is as rare as hens teeth.

Are any of you betting people? Because laws of randomness come in here and I would NOT be expecting snow to arrive based on what happened last year.
By all means keep model watching and hopecasting.
If significant building blocks fall into place,then thats the time to get excited.

Welcome to Boards.ie

lord lucan · 12-11-2011 11:40pm

OK,own up. Which one of the snowbunnies here started the "We want a freezing winter" Facebook group?

bb1234567 · 12-11-2011 11:42pm

lord lucan wrote: »

OK,own up. Which one of the snowbunnies here started the "We want a freezing winter" Facebook group?

if the page was started in ireland then i bet it was actually somebody on boards!:D

Danno · 12-11-2011 11:46pm

That Weather Online forecast JimmyD put up earlier caught my eye... in years gone by I would have dismissed it straight off... I cannot remember any start to December that wasn't cold zonal... but then last year happened...

Diamond Dust · 12-11-2011 11:47pm

It was someone on here , don't want to name names

mike65 · 12-11-2011 11:52pm

jimmy.d wrote: »

weather article stuff

Came from here http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20111112

lord lucan · 12-11-2011 11:52pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

if the page was started in ireland then i bet it was actually somebody on boards!:D

It appeared on IWO's Facebook page. Has to be a Boardsie.

maquiladora · 12-11-2011 11:54pm

lord lucan wrote: »

It appeared on IWO's Facebook page. Has to be a Boardsie.

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

lord lucan · 13-11-2011 12:00am

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

Strangely enough that was my first suspect.:pac:

thetonynator · 13-11-2011 12:02am

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

if it wasn't for his post here i would have said it started with bb . . . .:P

Diamond Dust · 13-11-2011 12:04am

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmmm, does it start with an "I.." ? :pac::P

Your spot on!

ff9999 · 13-11-2011 12:54am

Strange, I recall little or no snow between Winters 2000-2008, and was hardly disappointed, yet after last year I will be gutted if we don't get a White Christmas :rolleyes:

john mayo 10 · 13-11-2011 9:20am

we are only 13 days into winter and people are writing this winter off already. the weather can change in a matter of days and its december and january that are the main winter months anyway so stay positive:D

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 10:33am

john mayo 10 wrote: »

we are only 13 days into winter and people are writing this winter off already. the weather can change in a matter of days and its december and january that are the main winter months anyway so stay positive:D

Well... meteorologically speaking winter begins in December-March 1st. So it's not winter just yet. we will see a change from November 20th...well a significant one. some change to a cooler temp has already begun, although minutely. From the end of next week we may see a drop in temp which will bring morning frosts. It's more like November 2009 at the moment so let's not fret so early everyone and also let's not get the hopes up either. If there is significant snow, it will be closer to christmas. From the 15th of December I'd say. Roll on the snow!!

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 11:10am

According to Piers Corbyn in a response to the UK Met Offices long range forecast he said : Interesting! MetO will bend further but I should say that although the first ten days of November have been mild as we forecast the transition to cold is being delayed in the days 11-14th Nov (Confidence B = 75%).

The UK weather could, instead of gradually cooling wobble a bit and get cold as a relatively faster hit. We are entering a period when standard meteorology will thrash around all over the place - changing forecasts from day to day. We will send any updates to subscribers and give relevant statements here on CR.

This came from http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1694475/pg2

john mayo 10 · 13-11-2011 11:51am

in 2009 the cold snap didnt start till mid december so plenty of time yet,what happened last year in november rarely happens

mike65 · 13-11-2011 11:58am

Live image alert

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 12:01pm

john mayo 10 wrote: »

in 2009 the cold snap didnt start till mid december so plenty of time yet,what happened last year in november rarely happens

Yes... and before that it was quite mild too. Last year it became mild at the end of Jan and Start of Feb.:cool:

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 12:22pm

mike65 wrote: »

Live image alert

North Atlantic temp there would be 6-10 degrees. At 850hpa we would be looking at 4-0 degrees in Ireland anyway. That wouldn't be enough for snow but this model will change again later... or tomorrow... and then it'll change again... and again!...*sigh*

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 1:00pm

Kippure · 13-11-2011 1:57pm

This is the week we should look at each model run and see how it chops and changes. Compare 00z to the next days 00z run etc. I think this week 18z will give some on here heart attacks and ramp fever. For what we read on all the forums the 27th on wards will see our winter start.......I think that modern meteorology will find it hard to keep track of what happens a couple of hours ahead. Fun model watching ahead. Keep it locked to boards weather.....:D

davidsr20 · 13-11-2011 2:01pm

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Kippure · 13-11-2011 2:13pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Ive bought alot of long range forecasts. Its all good.

leahyl · 13-11-2011 2:23pm

Kippure wrote: »

This is the week we should look at each model run and see how it chops and changes. Compare 00z to the next days 00z run etc. I think this week 18z will give some on here heart attacks and ramp fever. For what we read on all the forums the 27th on wards will see our winter start.......I think that modern meteorology will find it hard to keep track of what happens a couple of hours ahead. Fun model watching ahead. Keep it locked to boards weather.....:D

Excellent, looking forward to all the near nervous breakdowns due to excitement!!

JFKIRELAND · 13-11-2011 3:16pm

@ Kippure, when you say you have bought a lot of long range forecasts - do you mean you believe in them or have actually handed over money for some - the only commercial ones I can think of are Corbyn and god bless him, Ken Ring!:D

Calibos · 13-11-2011 3:19pm

I'm getting more and more pessimistic about the chances of decent snow this year. November snow is a once in a 50 year thing is it not. The timing was the only reason we had snowmageddon last year. ie. early pronlonged arctic sourced air combined with sea surface temperatures that were still high made for explosive convection.

Assuming we get any 'pronlonged' arctic air this year its much more likely to happen January and February when SST's are lower and there won't be anywhere near the same amount of convection. I think the best we can hope for this year is a repeat of February '09 or January 2010 rather than November 2010. ie. Lots of ice days but little lying snow.

It seems we need a warm/cold frontal battle to get appreciable snow in the months after Christmas and unfortunately we just always seem to be on the wrong side of it.

Kippure · 13-11-2011 3:34pm

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

@ Kippure, when you say you have bought a lot of long range forecasts - do you mean you believe in them or have actually handed over money for some - the only commercial ones I can think of are Corbyn and god bless him, Ken Ring!:D

Just to clarify "over the years i have bought long range forecasts"

In relation to this winter i basing what i said on peirs forecast and what joe bastardi has said.

Handed money over like peirs site. Ive been following this forecaster for years. Yes and i beleve in his forecasts.

http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember.asp

And weather sites which have premium Access to charts etc. Netweather etc.

Plus the company i work for buys forecasts from independant sources.

Ive never bought a forecast from ken ring.

Plus im hoping to buy a commerical longe weather forecast of weatherbell. Money permitting.

JFKIRELAND · 13-11-2011 3:42pm

Thanks, just for the record I do pay for windguru professional forecasts myself. I'm not having a go - just a bit uninformed!!

Kippure · 13-11-2011 3:48pm

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

Thanks, just for the record I do pay for windguru professional forecasts myself. I'm not having a go - just a bit uninformed!!

No worries mate

mcriot29 · 13-11-2011 4:11pm

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

mcriot29 · 13-11-2011 4:15pm

whats ken ring saying about this winter for ireland and uk
did he give a forecast out yet.
anyone have any info why joe b still has not put euro winter out yet.
i bought peirs jan forecast last year he way totally wrong said blizz etc for dublin all trough jan and there was no snow he was so wrong it was not funny plus he never mentioned that on his website saying he was wrong it was around 15e too rip of.
For someone who claims to be great my cat would have gave a better forecast and i know he will be wrong again this year with this 27th nov crap not a chance of it now i hope he is correct as i love snow but im afirad he wont be
joe b is only guy who got last year correct hes by far the worlds best

thetonynator · 13-11-2011 4:23pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Are we looking at a late winter so maybe dec-feb

Dec to Feb is a normal winter. Last winter was very early, and was over by Jan really.

A late winter would be no real cold until mid january or so,.

thetonynator · 13-11-2011 4:25pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

whats ken ring saying about this winter for ireland and uk
did he give a forecast out yet.
anyone have any info why joe b still has not put euro winter out yet.
i bought peirs jan forecast last year he way totally wrong said blizz etc for dublin all trough jan and there was no snow he was so wrong it was not funny plus he never mentioned that on his website saying he was wrong it was around 15e too rip of.
For someone who claims to be great my cat would have gave a better forecast and i know he will be wrong again this year with this 27th nov crap not a chance of it now i hope he is correct as i love snow but im afirad he wont be
joe b is only guy who got last year correct hes by far the worlds best

Ken Ring is a complete chancer with his long range forecast, I wouldn't pay any attention to what he has to say if i were you, I certainly wouldn't dream of paying for his forecasts!

As for Joe Bastardi (and Piers Corbyn) . . . .a stopped clock gets the time right twice a day. Keep forecasting the same thing and it'll eventually happen.

bb1234567 · 13-11-2011 4:26pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

joe b has issued euro forecast and says itll be very cold and snowy and a memorable winter but less bad than last year:)

mcriot29 · 13-11-2011 4:29pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

joe b has issued euro forecast and says itll be very cold and snowy and a memorable winter but less bad than last year:)

can you send me a link for joe b forecast or paste it here when did he put it out

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 13-11-2011 5:48pm

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!

nacho libre · 13-11-2011 6:04pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

So the Norwegian met have changed their outlook. Have they informed Dublin city council? :P

Lucreto · 13-11-2011 6:23pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

Euro Winter Outlook
October 5 10:16 AM by Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)

I will get more detailed later on with this

ciao for now

This was his main winter report and he had a minor update at the end of October.

bb1234567 · 13-11-2011 6:34pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

can you send me a link for joe b forecast or paste it here when did he put it out

I will, a guy on another forum has it and i asked him to post it again and give a link to the forecast. Ill post as soon as he gets back to me:)

TheMilkyPirate · 13-11-2011 6:48pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!

It surely is, More of the same please!

Tindie · 13-11-2011 8:05pm

Here this week forecast for the week ahead
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/AEQiqJKBxQo

This time last year
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/207/QPp0JQPVwBU

BEASTERLY · 13-11-2011 8:07pm

baraca wrote: »

It surely is, More of the same please!

Constant westerly's/south-westerly's

Or are you one of THOSE who wants a mild winter?:P

MUSEIST · 13-11-2011 8:18pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in those charts.

Am I missing something?

TheMilkyPirate · 13-11-2011 8:24pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Constant westerly's/south-westerly's Or are you one of THOSE who wants a mild winter?:P

I know I'm an idiot sometimes I forget which way a low spins. Ignore me after long nights out

Caff Caff · 13-11-2011 8:26pm

MUSEIST wrote: »

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in t.hose charts. Am I missing something?

Put simply...yes..

Musicman2000 · 13-11-2011 8:27pm

MUSEIST wrote: »

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in those charts. Am I missing something?

No you are not missing anything at all, nothing interesting what so ever

Winter 2011/2012

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