Winter 2011/2012

nacho libre

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

So the Norwegian met have changed their outlook. Have they informed Dublin city council? :P

Lucreto

mcriot29 wrote: »

There cant be any cold for next 3 weeks tat a certain as the ao is going to be way off for cold so maybe dec will bring better news very crapy news.
Piers will be a laughing stock with his big freeze more like 17c
also joe b haS not gave out his euro forecast which he saiD he would on 30th of oct makes me think hes not going for a cold winter at all now for west europe
i can see this winter going off as a mild normal pre 2008 winter

Euro Winter Outlook
October 5 10:16 AM by Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)


I will get more detailed later on with this

ciao for now

This was his main winter report and he had a minor update at the end of October.

bb1234567

mcriot29 wrote: »

can you send me a link for joe b forecast or paste it here when did he put it out

I will, a guy on another forum has it and i asked him to post it again and give a link to the forecast. Ill post as soon as he gets back to me:)

TheMilkyPirate

t|nt|n wrote: »

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!

It surely is, More of the same please!

Tindie

Here this week forecast for the week ahead
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/0/AEQiqJKBxQo

This time last year
http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/u/207/QPp0JQPVwBU

BEASTERLY

baraca wrote: »

It surely is, More of the same please!

Constant westerly's/south-westerly's Or are you one of THOSE who wants a mild winter?:P

MUSEIST

t|nt|n wrote: »

The 12z GFS is a great run !!!

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in those charts. Am I missing something?

TheMilkyPirate

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Constant westerly's/south-westerly's Or are you one of THOSE who wants a mild winter?:P

I know I'm an idiot sometimes I forget which way a low spins. Ignore me after long nights out

Caff Caff

MUSEIST wrote: »

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in t.hose charts. Am I missing something?

Put simply...yes..

Musicman2000

MUSEIST wrote: »

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong charts but I see nothing interesting at any timeframe in those charts. Am I missing something?

No you are not missing anything at all, nothing interesting what so ever

only one

Now I'm confused

Diamond Dust

only one wrote: »

Now I'm confused

You're not the only one

mike65

People need to stop assuming everyone who posts here is a snow pornster.

WolfeIRE

UKMO OUTLOOK
UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2011 to Monday 12 Dec 2011:

The end of November and start of December look set to see some rather changeable weather across the UK, with rain and wind for most parts at times, though some drier and brighter periods are also likely. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal norm and some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single figure maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the current mild spell.
Updated: 1210 on Sun 13 Nov 2011

Diamond Dust

mike65 wrote: »

People need to stop assuming everyone who posts here is a snow pornster.

I'm not but would be best when someone posts something like "This is a great chart" to put at the end for a mild or cold (preferable )winter.....

btw mike65 I always know what you're posts are going to say ( ha ha) ... have been following this forum for a while!!

pauldry

still stickn with my prediction that there will be a few flakes of snow somewhere on Nov 24th to 28th. Maybe I will narrow down that prediction nearer the date.
(might change the date to Dec 24th nearer the date:) but wer all just forecasters eh)


Why do I think this? Just a hunch and just a hope really.

If you believe enough in something it will happen surely.

thetonynator

mike65 wrote: »

People need to stop assuming everyone who posts here is a snow pornster.

Fully agree with this although ''pornster'' isn't the term I'd have used myself!

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

If you believe enough in something it will happen surely.

Can't really apply that philosophy to weather I think though!

bb1234567

pauldry wrote: »

If you believe enough in something it will happen surely.

if that were true we'd be under feet of snow by now thanks to moi;)

delw

pauldry wrote: »

If you believe enough in something it will happen surely.

bb1234567 wrote: »

if that were true we'd be under feet of snow by now thanks to moi;)

& id be a millionaire

ff9999

Is this mild crap forecast for much longer? Was it anywhere near this mild at this stage last year?

thetonynator

ff9999 wrote: »

Is this mild crap forecast for much longer? Was it anywhere near this mild at this stage last year?

Lots more 'mild crap' forecast, wasn't this mild last year, this November is extremely mild!

davidsr20

pauldry wrote: »

still stickn with my prediction that there will be a few flakes of snow somewhere on Nov 24th to 28th. Maybe I will narrow down that prediction nearer the date.
(might change the date to Dec 24th nearer the date:) but wer all just forecasters eh)


Why do I think this? Just a hunch and just a hope really.

If you believe enough in something it will happen surely.

A few flakes isn't much good :mad:We need a rite good dumping like 1947 lol

ff9999

thetonynator wrote: »

Lots more 'mild crap' forecast, wasn't this mild last year, this November is extremely mild!

That's what I thought alright:( It seemed as if we were heading into a cold snap about a fortnight ago and it got chilly but that was very short-lived.

Ideally, I'd love for this mild crap to move along and allow for conditions needed for snow. We had a poor mild & rainy summer, last thing I want is a poor mild & rainy Winter.

Give me chilly & frosty & snowy instead. Rant over.

delw

davidsr20 wrote: »

A few flakes isn't much good :mad:We need a rite good dumping like 1947 lol

but the savage snow in 1947 didn't start till January not November lol

isle of man

was reading something that said it all works in cycles 33 years or so.

1978-79
1945-1946
1912-1913
1879-1880
1845
1813.

Not looked into to much given the time of the hour.
but is there any credit in it. then again i guess with it being an avrage of 33 years, you could well say last year was the that year maybe, which would not bold well for us snow lovers.

time will tell.

BLIZZARD7

isle of man wrote: »

was reading something that said it all works in cycles 33 years or so.

1978-79
1945-1946
1912-1913
1879-1880
1845
1813.

Not looked into to much given the time of the hour.
but is there any credit in it. then again i guess with it being an avrage of 33 years, you could well say last year was the that year maybe, which would not bold well for us snow lovers.

time will tell.

Meh, There has been loads of severe winter weather in loads of years inbetween these 33 yr cycles.


To name a few -

1880-1881
1894-1895
1916-1917
1919-1920
1932-1933
1939-1940
1955-1956
1961-1962
1962-1963
1968-1969
1981-1982
1983-1984
1984-1985
1985-1986
1986-1987
1990-1991
1995-1996
2009-2010

I would be happy with a repeat of any of these winters bar maybe 1 or 2 but thats being very picky!! Most of the extremely severe winters dont set in until late December or January so keep positive people!!





Dan :cool:

blackius

The causes are real but the effects associated are so random,there's little point in drawing conclusions.
chaos theory means the perfect storm(in a sense) conditions of last Nov Dec are going to be a near impossible act to follow.
That's not to say we can't ever get colder and snowier or the opposite.
It just means it's rare for a reason so don't be disappointed folks.

Mr Benevolent

Let's be honest hear, widescale snow is probably a no-go now.

suitseir

ff9999 wrote: »

Is this mild crap forecast for much longer? Was it anywhere near this mild at this stage last year?

I remember this time last year. It was colder but I have a pic on my phone of seriously cold weather towards end of November. In fact, I flew out of Dublin Airport on 30th. November and it was so bad that we were lucky to get airborne!

I spent yesterday at a beach in Co. Clare....the temp was 17 degrees...people were out there enjoying the weather....even in short sleeves. It was windy but extremely mild and pleasant!!!! I hope this weather continues....even got the grass cut!! Yippeeee!!!

So much for all the cold calls I am getting at the moment about uprgading insulation and upgrading boiler etc..........

I am hoping for a MILD CHRISTMAS!!!! But I can only hope!!!