Winter 2011/2012

maquiladora

jessie37 wrote: »

@ maquiladora and redsunset .... I was reading back over old posts from this time last year , you pratically had the same conversation you just had there... redsunset trying to be positive and maquiladora saying no... laughed when i saw this tonight.

Really?

I think the charts were looking a lot more promising last year though?

Harps

Had a look at last years charts and this is 240h on the ECM this day last year, not really hinting at anything yet only a few days after the 20th things changed dramatically



Its also exactly a year since storm Carmen as it happens

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

Many straws are going to be broken this winter.

Well, mike65 has spoken. We may as well stop hoping for snow now. Winter is done before it has even begun:D

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Had a look at last years charts and this is 240h on the ECM this day last year, not really hinting at anything yet only a few days after the 20th things changed dramatically

Ah but look at the 0Z ECM for this day last year at just 120 hours.



Thats a world away from anything any the models are showing for around the 120 hour mark from now. We'd have to go into deep FI in the ensembles to get something like that...

Early days still though, last year was exceptional.

nacho libre

While the current background signals don't look great for the next couple of weeks and beyond, we should remember the signals in November 2009 didn't exactly give any indication of what was to come 5- 6 weeks later that year.

Redsunset

BAD NEWS
Joe Bastardi Say's things are not adding up.

"Euro weeklies NOT in line with my thinking. Lots of work in front of me as they are opposite of cold pdo, warm amo, 2cnd yr Nina analogues".

Caff Caff

redsunset wrote: »

BAD NEWS
Joe Bastardi Say's things are not adding up.

"Euro weeklies NOT in line with my thinking. Lots of work in front of me as they are opposite of cold pdo, warm amo, 2cnd yr Nina analogues".

Wow...breaking News....weather is not how we imagined and nature doesn't follow our science...oh dear it must be unpredictable!! There are way too many elements to account for. just like with the human brain and psychology, psychiatry, and psychotherapy...they all have their theories on the human condition but things happen that baffle each. time will tell

BLIZZARD7

Much better ECM this morning -

+216 hrs




+240 hrs




Its still way out in FI, but is a trend worth watching as these type of charts keep popping up in FI and the ensembles are gradually starting to trend cooler. GFS operational is not on board though.





Dan :cool:

mike65

Desperation stakes. Quick someone go out and do a snow dance.

MUSEIST

mike65 wrote: »

Desperation stakes. Quick someone go out and do a snow dance.

you make me sick:mad::P

MUSEIST

The cold came very early last winter, nov and dec and then it was gone for jan, feb and march. Personally If we do get a cold blast this year, I hope it comes in late dec, jan or feb to maximise its potential. I can't find anything on the charts to indicate an early blast this year.

vickers209

This went up on a link on met today i think just found it!!

http://www.winterready.ie/

Speak Now

vickers209 wrote: »

This went up on a link on met today i think just found it!!

http://www.winterready.ie/

Some discussion about this back on page 82.

BLIZZARD7

MUSEIST wrote: »

The cold came very early last winter, nov and dec and then it was gone for jan, feb and march. Personally If we do get a cold blast this year, I hope it comes in late dec, jan or feb to maximise its potential. I can't find anything on the charts to indicate an early blast this year.

If the ECM comes off there will be an early cold shot this year, about the last week of November. It has been indicating a similar pattern for the past 3 runs and so I believe something is building, the guys over on netweather are saying that something is changing in the stratosphere and that might be why the ECM is showing more energy going to our south than the GFS. The main differnce between the GFS and ECM at the moment is that the ECM has shortwaves undercutting the euro high, forcing height rises to our north, wheras the GFS is a much flatter pattern with shortwaves going over the top of the high and bringing mild horrible weather.

So I hope the ECM is on to something!





Dan :cool:

je55ie

Thanks BLIZZARD7 something positive

Calibos

Caff Caff wrote: »

There are a few signs in nature, let us not forget that this is how hunter gatherers knew of an impending winter. Has anyone else seen holly bushes full of berries? I have and also, squirrels were busy busy diggin holes and burying acorns the last two days. My grandfather and father used to teach me this stuff when camping and hiking as a kid. To keep an eye out for natures signs. We all know they are there but we choose to look to science! Sure didn't a 100 strong tribe on an island called Sentinel between India and Burma follow a swarm of ants as they made their way up a mountain as it was a sign that something was coming and within a day the tsunami hit! They all survived. This was in the Sunday Times in 2005. The read signs in nature to survive. So, any signs in nature guys?

Caff Caff wrote: »

Wow...breaking News....weather is not how we imagined and nature doesn't follow our science...oh dear it must be unpredictable!! There are way too many elements to account for. just like with the human brain and psychology, psychiatry, and psychotherapy...they all have their theories on the human condition but things happen that baffle each. time will tell

I agree, we need to open up a new field of science that investigates the Quantum Heisenberg uncertainty principle as it relates to the quantum Tachyon tunneling that the Holly bush performs to enable it to predict future weather.

Musicman2000

Not goood:(

Morning all, unfortunately it is generally bad news from the EC 32 day update with essentially a complete reversal of fortunes this week. Call that a random change and things may return to the previous signalled block to the N of the UK in coming weeks, but this is now also evident within the EC and GFS ENS to back up the new signal from the 32 day.

In essence by the end of November and up to the 10th/11th of December low pressure becomes dominant to the N of the UK and high pressure dominates to the S and SW. As a result and in summary the outlook during the final quarter of November and into the opening 10 days or so of December is now essentially a 'cold zonality' scenario. Temperatures do look like returning to near average values which would likely lead to some wintry precipitation in places, but unfortunately the change this week is clearly a huge one compared with the blocked pattern which was evident in previous weeks. So in summary this weeks 32 day is highlighting a gradual change to cooler, near average temperatures but with increasingly unsettled, atlantic weather with PPN totals trending above average.

Also of interest is that the the EC seasonal forecast has had a recent revamp and is now 'System 4' - This link is freely available online after a google search so if anyone wants to read more about it then this link will provide that - http://www.ecmwf.int/pro...chnical_description.html

However, the System 4 update, which now is available on the 8th of month rather than the 15th, paints an horrendous outlook for D/J/F now with the +ve pressure anom (blocked signal in recent months) across the UK now gone and we essentially have low pressure to the N and NW of the UK and higher pressure to the S and SW (+ve NAO) and an unsettled and 'typical' UK winter pattern. Make of that as you will, but all the signs from a forecast model perspective are pointing towards a pretty poor winter now in terms of cold and snowy conditions...Clearly the ECM seasonal model was way off the mark last winter without question, but when a model, whether seasonal or short range, has some additions made to it to improve resolution and the likes you do expect some improvement in the model as otherwise the changes wouldn't have been made.

M.

je55ie

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not goood:(

Morning all, unfortunately it is generally bad news from the EC 32 day update with essentially a complete reversal of fortunes this week.

M.

Oh well ................ :(:(:(:(


but still early days surely!!

weathermaiden

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not goood:(

Morning all, unfortunately it is generally bad news from the EC 32 day update with essentially a complete reversal of fortunes this week. Call that a random change and things may return to the previous signalled block to the N of the UK in coming weeks, but this is now also evident within the EC and GFS ENS to back up the new signal from the 32 day.

In essence by the end of November and up to the 10th/11th of December low pressure becomes dominant to the N of the UK and high pressure dominates to the S and SW. As a result and in summary the outlook during the final quarter of November and into the opening 10 days or so of December is now essentially a 'cold zonality' scenario. Temperatures do look like returning to near average values which would likely lead to some wintry precipitation in places, but unfortunately the change this week is clearly a huge one compared with the blocked pattern which was evident in previous weeks. So in summary this weeks 32 day is highlighting a gradual change to cooler, near average temperatures but with increasingly unsettled, atlantic weather with PPN totals trending above average.

Also of interest is that the the EC seasonal forecast has had a recent revamp and is now 'System 4' - This link is freely available online after a google search so if anyone wants to read more about it then this link will provide that - http://www.ecmwf.int/pro...chnical_description.html

However, the System 4 update, which now is available on the 8th of month rather than the 15th, paints an horrendous outlook for D/J/F now with the +ve pressure anom (blocked signal in recent months) across the UK now gone and we essentially have low pressure to the N and NW of the UK and higher pressure to the S and SW (+ve NAO) and an unsettled and 'typical' UK winter pattern. Make of that as you will, but all the signs from a forecast model perspective are pointing towards a pretty poor winter now in terms of cold and snowy conditions...Clearly the ECM seasonal model was way off the mark last winter without question, but when a model, whether seasonal or short range, has some additions made to it to improve resolution and the likes you do expect some improvement in the model as otherwise the changes wouldn't have been made.

M.

This is the worst....day..... EVER.

eskimocat

Calibos wrote: »

I agree, we need to open up a new field of science that investigates the Quantum Heisenberg uncertainty principle as it relates to the quantum Tachyon tunneling that the Holly bush performs to enable it to predict future weather.

LOL that sounds like a line from The Big Bang theory.... so which are you Sheldon?, Leonard?, Howard?, Rajesh? :pac:

WolfeIRE

weathermaiden wrote: »

This is the worst....day..... EVER.

No, the thought of Paul McShane starting against Estonia is

maquiladora

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not goood:(

Morning all, unfortunately it is generally bad news from the EC 32 day update with essentially a complete reversal of fortunes this week. Call that a random change and things may return to the previous signalled block to the N of the UK in coming weeks, but this is now also evident within the EC and GFS ENS to back up the new signal from the 32 day.

In essence by the end of November and up to the 10th/11th of December low pressure becomes dominant to the N of the UK and high pressure dominates to the S and SW. As a result and in summary the outlook during the final quarter of November and into the opening 10 days or so of December is now essentially a 'cold zonality' scenario. Temperatures do look like returning to near average values which would likely lead to some wintry precipitation in places, but unfortunately the change this week is clearly a huge one compared with the blocked pattern which was evident in previous weeks. So in summary this weeks 32 day is highlighting a gradual change to cooler, near average temperatures but with increasingly unsettled, atlantic weather with PPN totals trending above average.

Also of interest is that the the EC seasonal forecast has had a recent revamp and is now 'System 4' - This link is freely available online after a google search so if anyone wants to read more about it then this link will provide that - http://www.ecmwf.int/pro...chnical_description.html

However, the System 4 update, which now is available on the 8th of month rather than the 15th, paints an horrendous outlook for D/J/F now with the +ve pressure anom (blocked signal in recent months) across the UK now gone and we essentially have low pressure to the N and NW of the UK and higher pressure to the S and SW (+ve NAO) and an unsettled and 'typical' UK winter pattern. Make of that as you will, but all the signs from a forecast model perspective are pointing towards a pretty poor winter now in terms of cold and snowy conditions...Clearly the ECM seasonal model was way off the mark last winter without question, but when a model, whether seasonal or short range, has some additions made to it to improve resolution and the likes you do expect some improvement in the model as otherwise the changes wouldn't have been made.

M.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Lads lads lads

440 model runs till the end of feb, something will come up !

PauloMN

t|nt|n wrote: »

Lads lads lads

440 model runs till the end of feb, something will come up !

I like!

BLIZZARD7

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not goood:(

However, the System 4 update, which now is available on the 8th of month rather than the 15th, paints an horrendous outlook for D/J/F now with the +ve pressure anom (blocked signal in recent months) across the UK now gone and we essentially have low pressure to the N and NW of the UK and higher pressure to the S and SW (+ve NAO) and an unsettled and 'typical' UK winter pattern. Make of that as you will, but all the signs from a forecast model perspective are pointing towards a pretty poor winter now in terms of cold and snowy conditions...Clearly the ECM seasonal model was way off the mark last winter without question, but when a model, whether seasonal or short range, has some additions made to it to improve resolution and the likes you do expect some improvement in the model as otherwise the changes wouldn't have been made.

M.

Hey musicman2000,

Can you link to where it says all that about the uk? All I could find on system 4 was forecasts for the southern hemisphere/tropics.




Dan :cool:

Musicman2000

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Hey musicman2000,

Can you link to where it says all that about the uk? All I could find on system 4 was forecasts for the southern hemisphere/tropics.




Dan :cool:

Couldnt find it either Dan, Ill keep an eye out for it

nacho libre

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71234-winter-201112-general-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2157803

It's interesting, in light of this post, to recall M.T. thoughts are that January maybe our best shot at snow and colder weather this winter.

BLIZZARD7

GFS 12z is much better than the 06z which was a complete horror show!

I think the ECM might be on to something, the GFS is now starting to show more energy heading to our south. :cool::)





Dan :cool:

Deep Easterly

This time last year, we were going through a very unsettled spell of weather with strong winds and heavy rain affecting the country. On this day last year, the 11th Nov, a deep depression passed near the NW/N coast bringing strong gusts across Ireland during the afternoon and evening:



Strongest gust recorded was 65 knots at Belmullet. May have my dates wrong but I think this was the day Ireland's most famous storm chaser 'Iancar' went to Achill Island to see the storm in action.

Some of the showers that occurred with this system were very heavy with thunderstorms over parts of the midwest and northwest especially:



Satellite image taken at 1500 UTC on this day:


Impressive frontal feature over Europe ahead of the main depression.

Strangegravy

Don't stress it people!

Even if we had been promised major blizzards this winter by all forecasters, I wouldn't have believed it, weather just don't work that way!

Until people can predict the future we're not going to know exactly what our weather is going to be like two weeks ahead, let alone for a month or more ahead.

Even at 5-10 days out, weather-wise, things can still change so dramatically.

Just take comfort in the fact that it is only the start of November and that there is now a window of a few months where, winter weather wise, anything can happen, regardless of what models are telling us.