€25k invested in prize bonds

pbtracker

I think my bonds may have been deleted :-) ....still waiting on a 2021 win...

Winnings on 26th February 2021: €0
Last win : €50 6th Nov 2020
Investment : €77K (from Aug 2020)
Winnings Total : €200
Pre 2020 : €50
2020 : €150
2021 : €0

John arse

pbtracker wrote: »

I think my bonds may have been deleted :-) ....still waiting on a 2021 win...

Winnings on 26th February 2021: €0
Last win : €50 6th Nov 2020
Investment : €77K (from Aug 2020)
Winnings Total : €200
Pre 2020 : €50
2020 : €150
2021 : €0

yeah me too,nothing for me since july on 66k.a dose of reality there for any would-be investors!!

pbwinner

jaffa20 wrote: »

What's the best alternative to prizebonds at the moment? I was considering then but doesn't reallly look like great idea.

Under the bed

dxhound2005

€50 for me, bond reinvested from a win in Feb 2010. Plenty of examples today of winning numbers being very close to each other.

Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

€50.00 RX176126 Monaghan
€50.00 RX176131 Monaghan

€50.00 WR383023 Mayo
€50.00 WR383258 Mayo

€50.00 ATP297500 Roscommon
€50.00 ATP297570 Roscommon

€50.00 HZ817927 Westmeath
€50.00 HZ818195 Westmeath

Dublin got the 50K, 9 out of the 10 1K, and 7 out of the 10 500's.

Bought 100k in prize bonds in July last year. Have won 10 x 50 euro prizes since then. Much more fun than waiting for the 0.000001% interest to be added once a year by the bank

August: 2 x 50
September: 2 x 50
October: Nothing
November: 3 x 50
December: 1 x 50
January: Nothing
February: 2 x 50

John arse

Deleted User wrote: »

Bought 100k in prize bonds in July last year. Have won 10 x 50 euro prizes since then. Much more fun than waiting for the 0.000001% interest to be added once a year by the bank

August: 2 x 50
September: 2 x 50
October: Nothing
November: 3 x 50
December: 1 x 50
January: Nothing
February: 2 x 50

doing well there,above average.keep it up now:):):)

dxhound2005

The reduction in interest rate was 30%. The expected return with average luck for €100K was 7 wins, €350 in any 52 draws. So the new return should be 5 wins, €250. The actual figure before was around €368 and 70% of that is €258, but we have to work in multiples of €50. It is a bit more complicated than that, with the change to the big prizes, but it serves as a rough guide.

I counted the real world return achieved by 22 million bonds, all less than three months old, in the 4 draws in February. AUJ to AVE inclusive.

Week 1. 124 wins average 5.636 per million. Highest AUN 9, lowest AUZ and AVB 2 each.

Week 2. 136, average 6.182. Highest AUW 10, lowest AUK 3.

Week 3. 152, average 6.909. Highest AVD 12, lowest AUW 3.

Week 4. 168, average 7.636. Highest AUN 14, lowest AUQ 1.

Total 580, average 6.590. Best performing AUN 36, worst AUM and AUU 22 each.

One million bonds worth €6.25 million, would win 52 x 6.590 = 342.68 prizes x €50 = €17,134. Dividing that by 62.5 to see how €100K would fare gives €274.14, a bit above the €258 figure, but still nearest to €250, 5 x €50.

The sample is too small to be any more accurate. I might repeat it in March, as it only takes a few minutes to do each week. All the prizes were €50, except in Week 1 AVE bonds won €1,000 and €500 both in Mayo. Those were brand new bonds about a week old at the time. And AUZ bonds won €1,000 today Week 4.

Using the figures to work out roughly the value of the fund. Those 22 million bonds won 580 prizes, 3.2888% of the 17,636 prizes in the month. 100% of the bonds would be 668,936,998. x 6.25 = €4.181 billion rounded, which would not be far off other estimations.

rebelle

Lottie125 wrote: »

........... Would much rather have the full €25k in one lot (even though i doubt it would help me win).

I would love to hear if people think that it's better to have bonds in larger lots instead of multiple smaller lots?

dxhound2005

rebelle wrote: »

I would love to hear if people think that it's better to have bonds in larger lots instead of multiple smaller lots?

It doesn't matter what people think, it makes zero difference to the chances of winning.

lizardking123

€50 win for me today. Thats 3 x €50 in 2021 on €95k holdings

carrickbawn

rebelle wrote: »

I would love to hear if people think that it's better to have bonds in larger lots instead of multiple smaller lots?

It really doesn't matter. I buy 100 euro worth every year for my godson.
10 years of no wins and then 2x50 a few months apart last year.

Nothing for me again this week. Due a little something now to lift the spirits.
Well done Tuis. Enjoy. Delighted for you. And do the lotto too.

Taylor365

carrickbawn wrote: »

It really doesn't matter. I buy 100 euro worth every year for my godson.
10 years of no wins and then 2x50 a few months apart last year.

Some astronomical odds there! :eek:

Sligo Quay

Nothing for me this week, but at least I've had one single win in 2021 €50euro on 22nd January.

Hibernicis

Andrew Flexing wrote: »

New record @Hibernicis?

Not quite but I seem to be getting there. I had a 13 week drought in Autumn/Winter 2018 (my holding was a bit smaller then). I graphed the details here

Hibernicis

rebelle wrote: »

I would love to hear if people think that it's better to have bonds in larger lots instead of multiple smaller lots?

As dxhound2005 said, zero difference.

In theory there is no reason why there should be any difference. And in practice my holding comprises 4 x €50k batches (each a single cert) and the remainder of €53k which is made up of over 100 certs, many of these are reinvested winnings and dd purchases for small amounts. Over the course of 2019 and 2020 the performance of the latter was very much in line with the single cert batches. So you can take it that there is no difference in theory or practice.

I posted the comparative analysis here

Lottie125

Hibernicis wrote: »

As dxhound2005 said, zero difference.

In theory there is no reason why there should be any difference. And in practice my holding comprises 4 x €50k batches (each a single cert) and the remainder of €53k which is made up of over 100 certs, many of these are reinvested winnings and dd purchases for small amounts. Over the course of 2019 and 2020 the performance of the latter was very much in line with the single cert batches. So you can take it that there is no difference in theory or practice.

I posted the comparative analysis here

Thats great to hear, i will just keep investing in €2,500 amounts so, as i dont have a cheque book and thats the limit my DD will allow in 1 day.

John arse

Lottie125 wrote: »

Thats great to hear, i will just keep investing in €2,500 amounts so, as i dont have a cheque book and thats the limit my DD will allow in 1 day.

good luck with that:):):)

tuisginideach

Godchildren’s certs must have a special good luck magnet on them - two of my godchildren won on their first week of a €25 or €50 gift - more than 10 years ago so can’t remember which amount it would have been and another godchild has won twice on gifts (one gift of €50 and one once-off gift of €500). Having said that there’s another six godchildren, thirteen nieces/nephews, a load of friends’ children and numerous new babies who have never admitted to a win!!!!

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The reduction in interest rate was 30%. The expected return with average luck for €100K was 7 wins, €350 in any 52 draws. So the new return should be 5 wins, €250. The actual figure before was around €368 and 70% of that is €258, but we have to work in multiples of €50. It is a bit more complicated than that, with the change to the big prizes, but it serves as a rough guide.

I counted the real world return achieved by 22 million bonds, all less than three months old, in the 4 draws in February. AUJ to AVE inclusive.

Week 1. 124 wins average 5.636 per million. Highest AUN 9, lowest AUZ and AVB 2 each.

Week 2. 136, average 6.182. Highest AUW 10, lowest AUK 3.

Week 3. 152, average 6.909. Highest AVD 12, lowest AUW 3.

Week 4. 168, average 7.636. Highest AUN 14, lowest AUQ 1.

Total 580, average 6.590. Best performing AUN 36, worst AUM and AUU 22 each.

One million bonds worth €6.25 million, would win 52 x 6.590 = 342.68 prizes x €50 = €17,134. Dividing that by 62.5 to see how €100K would fare gives €274.14, a bit above the €258 figure, but still nearest to €250, 5 x €50.

The sample is too small to be any more accurate. I might repeat it in March, as it only takes a few minutes to do each week. All the prizes were €50, except in Week 1 AVE bonds won €1,000 and €500 both in Mayo. Those were brand new bonds about a week old at the time. And AUZ bonds won €1,000 today Week 4.

Using the figures to work out roughly the value of the fund. Those 22 million bonds won 580 prizes, 3.2888% of the 17,636 prizes in the month. 100% of the bonds would be 668,936,998. x 6.25 = €4.181 billion rounded, which would not be far off other estimations.

Excellent analysis, thank you.

Like Pbtracker, I was starting to wonder if my bonds had been deleted ! I've used your analysis as a starting point to challenge the possibility. I took the 5 x million number ranges that contain the larger batches I hold, and tracked the prizes for the last month.

Range|No of Prizes|Comment
AIC|22|1 x €10,000 and 21 x €50
AID|18|1 x €50,000 and 18 x €50
AIV|25|25 x €50
AIW|18|1 x €500 and 17 x €50
AMT|26|26 x €50
Total|109

I then followed your logic:

|
Number of prizes in month, notional 5m bonds|109
Number of prizes per year, notional 5m bonds (109/5*52)|1,133.6
Number of prizes per year, notional 1m bonds (1,133.6/5)|226.72
Value of prizes per year, notional 1m bonds (226.72*€50)|€11,336
Value of prizes per year per €100k (€11,336/62.5)|€181.38


The figure of €181 is 30%-34% less than the range €258-€274 you arrived at, however given that the ranges I selected are 2-3.5 years old and will have been reduced by repayments, a repayment rate in the region of 30% over this period doesn't seem unreasonable.

So I guess they haven't deleted these ranges, it just confirms that I am in a dry patch.

A somewhat pointless exercise, but the alternative was painting a doorframe, and I detest house painting so any prevarication was welcome.

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Using the figures to work out roughly the value of the fund. Those 22 million bonds won 580 prizes, 3.2888% of the 17,636 prizes in the month. 100% of the bonds would be 668,936,998. x 6.25 = €4.181 billion rounded, which would not be far off other estimations.

It's interesting that you came back to the figure of €4.1bn. That figure first appeared in this article by Charlie Weston in the Indo at the time the prizes were restructured in January.

Agent Smith, in this post, calculated the fund to be €4,453m at the end of January, an increase of €421m during the month. Despite my scepticism at the time, when I calculate the end of January fund value based on the February prizes I come up with exactly the same number. Thinking about this, it is an extraordinary increase, but it certainly would explain the NTMA moving to reduce the prize rate to stop the inflow.

It will be interesting to see what the March prize looks like next Friday.

beertons

My pb value hit 3k last week, buy 4-8 every month. I've never had a win.

RedRochey

Sorry if this has been asked recently but what's the best way to go about buying €10k worth of bonds? I've seen posts saying something that you need a cheque to buy that much?

Neames

I have the princely sum of €3600...I've been buying a batch of €300 every quarter for a few years now.

Sadly no wins yet.

dxhound2005

Here is another pointless exercise I did for the February draws.

Before the Euro, 116 million bonds were issued starting in 1957. They were in units of IR£5 now valued at €6.35. All bonds up to the end of the DK prefix. The software in the draws gives them a slightly better chance of winning than the €6.25 bonds.

Week 1. 144 wins. Week 2 159. Week 3 174. Week 4 151. Total 628.

628 is 3.5609% of the 17,636 prizes in February. That would mean there are still around 24 million of the original 116 million still in circulation. When I did the same exercise for two weeks about a year ago it was around 4%. The percentage will keep dropping as long as the value of the fund keeps going up, which shows no sign of stopping. The number of old bonds being cashed in is likely to be very low, so the 24 million will probably be much the same in 12 months time.

The No Prefix first ever million bonds got 1 prize. Q and U prefixes got none. AA and AI got none. CK got none. The P prefix got 11, only bettered by DC which got 12.

Agent Smyth

Seriously, It's Saturday have yous nothing better to doing on such a nice day

thefa

RedRochey wrote: »

Sorry if this has been asked recently but what's the best way to go about buying €10k worth of bonds? I've seen posts saying something that you need a cheque to buy that much?

Went to the post office and got a form. Filled in at home and gathered the documents required and went back in with my debit card. Capped at whatever the daily limit is on the card which was €5k in my case. Received the prize bonds and a sign up letter in the post a couple of weeks later and used the customer number on that to buy another €5k online. Just found this the most convenient way but presume there’s a method to do in one go.

No wins yet since registering late November and early December.

dxhound2005

Hibernicis wrote: »

It's interesting that you came back to the figure of €4.1bn. That figure first appeared in this article by Charlie Weston in the Indo at the time the prizes were restructured in January.

Agent Smith, in this post, calculated the fund to be €4,453m at the end of January, an increase of €421m during the month. Despite my scepticism at the time, when I calculate the end of January fund value based on the February prizes I come up with exactly the same number. Thinking about this, it is an extraordinary increase, but it certainly would explain the NTMA moving to reduce the prize rate to stop the inflow.

It will be interesting to see what the March prize looks like next Friday.

The newest bond to win on 04 January was AUS183638. On 05 February AVF230416. That would equate to sales of around €82 million. So that is the max the fund could have gone up in January.

The difficulty in us doing calculations is that the January figures included some element of it being 0.50%, and the following 11 months being 0.35%. Because the fixed amount for big prizes to be paid out later in the year comes into it even in January and February.

Thinking back to my 0.274% return instead of nearer 0.258% for February, that has some connection as well. I don't pretend to know how they went about it, but once the number of €50 prizes came down in January I knew it could not be simply a reduction in the number of bonds.

Agent Smyth

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The newest bond to win on 04 January was AUS183638. On 05 February AVF230416. That would equate to sales of around €82 million. So that is the max the fund could have gone up in January.

The difficulty in us doing calculations is that the January figures included some element of it being 0.50%, and the following 11 months being 0.35%. Because the fixed amount for big prizes to be paid out later in the year comes into it even in January and February.

Good man dxhound,
Are those serial numbers the newest numbers you could find from the PB website for both those draws or are they actual awarded bonds that were issued after both draws ??

As far as I know the prize fund is calculated going forward and doesn't take into account any prizes that were awarded in the previous month.
At least that is my understanding and how I do my figures

Edit
Just on the PB site and using the newest bonds that I could find on the second draw on JAN AUU257062 and FEB AVI886035 and I would agree with your figure of around 82 mil
Mine works out at €85,181,080
Not sure where that leaves my end of Jan figure, we'll have to wait till Friday to see the months prizes

robman60

I own a few bonds that I received as gifts and have no interest in holding given the tiny payout (of which I've received nothing in over 5 years!). I did a quick look on cashing them in but I can only see a postal option. Is that really the only option? No way to just bring it into the post office even?

dxhound2005

Agent Smyth wrote: »

Good man dxhound,
Are those serial numbers the newest numbers you could find from the PB website for both those draws or are they actual awarded bonds that were issued after both draws ??

As far as I know the prize fund is calculated going forward and doesn't take into account any prizes that were awarded in the previous month.
At least that is my understanding and how I do my figures

They are the newest bond to win a prize. If you sort by Prize Bond Number and go to Page 369 on 04 January this is what you get. There could be a few hundred thousand bonds newer than AUS183638 in circulation (no way of knowing), but certainly no AUT bonds that week.


Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

€50.00AUR525442Dublin
€50.00AUR574736Dublin
€50.00AUR872471Cork
(AUR continued from previous page)

€50.00AUS031860Galway
€50.00AUS040511Galway
€50.00AUS066032Cork
€50.00AUS112451U.K
€50.00AUS183638Kildare

€50.00AV327580Dublin
€50.00AW096283Dublin