Potential return of Severe Cold from mid February

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

Well if this is the case, why did the Farming Forecast allude to milder conditions next week?

Sometimes the models may change drasticially from one run to the next. so lets say the latest ecm- which is the model they usually go with, was showing milder weather prevailing, they then may base their farming forecast on this run, only for the next run to show colder conditions prevailing. With this in mind I recall way back in December Evelyn gave a late night forecast which showed us missing out on the cold around the 16th of December, only for the next ecm run to show us right in its path. While the altantic based on experience is the most likely winner, the models may well flip-flop a lot during the course of this week before it's all sorted out. We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday.

Harps

Potential for snow at lower levels tonight so I wouldnt be surprised to see something here in the morning, hopefully it wont be as wet as the stuff last week as I'd really prefer not to have to walk through that again.

On next week, the latest ecm is rolling out and sticking with the atlantic winning over the cold.

smallwonder

Harps wrote: »

Potential for snow at lower levels tonight so I wouldnt be surprised to see something here in the morning, hopefully it wont be as wet as the stuff last week as I'd really prefer not to have to walk through that again.

Oh god, I hope it's not going to be a re-run of last Monday - stuck in traffic for over an hour in Letterkenny:eek:

desolate sun

nacho libre wrote: »

The greatest snowfalls in Ireland don't usually occur in proper cold conditions- they occur in marginal situations between milder air and colder air where there is an ongoing stalemate. However, it's unlikely what will occur next week will lead to a significant snowfall here, as 9 times out of 10 we are unlucky , but such scenarios in the past have led to big snowfalls in Ireland. Also quite often our greatest snowfalls aren't always flagged in advance by the models due to the uncertainty in such situations.

Thanks for that nacho. Normally you can be a bit pessimistic (no offence meant ) but this is very hopeful, considering two of the other regulars were calling it a day on the snow front.

BEASTERLY

The problem is that ridge of high pressure extending south through eastern europe from the scandi high. The air mass has to travel south to the med before coming our way.

Hence why the easterlies that are shown in the models never are bringing the cold air we want and are actually bringing quite mild air(for continental air), with snow conducive uppers barely reaching the shetlands for more than a few hours.

thetonynator

Siobhan said snow at LOWER LEVELS tonight!! . .not that it'll be any amount of it . . .:(

BEASTERLY

thetonynator wrote: »

Siobhan in the mix said snow in the mix at LOWER LEVELS in the mix tonight!! . .not that it'll be any amount of it in the mix. . .:(

Fixed!

Pangea

2c , snow is in the air. I can smell it.

Steopo

Pangea wrote: »

2c , snow is in the air. I can smell it.

Oh dear, not a great night for the heating to go - hopefully will get it sorted tomorrow in time for a snowy easterly by end of the week

thetonynator

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Fixed!

Didnt want everyone to have to translate it from siobhan ryan into english . .:P

irish1967

Ok. Been working all weekend. Pangea or Harps or anyone what am I missing? Am I on snow watch????

Pangea

Put on the kettle, your on snow watch
Snow given for lower levels tonight.

pauldry

way to mild so far in Sligo for any snow. 3.8c and damp. but a couple of hours of clear air and some frost with a shower just before dawn might change that

Elmo5

we had a hail shower earlier?

ninebeanrows

I think it was a mistake, i think she meant to say ' snow on high ground ' rather than ' snow on low ground '.

Pangea

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think it was a mistake, i think she meant to say ' snow on high ground ' rather than ' snow on low ground '.

Wow what a guess lol
People are assuming she mentioned something else, she couldnt possible of said snow on lower ground ,this is ireland afterall :pac:

She clearly said lower ground, and then talked about the snow risk :cool:

fizzycyst

she mentioned snow on lower ground twice on the 6 o'clock weather so it wasn't a mistake

NIALL D

snow in tipp sweet

Davaeo09

NIALL D wrote: »

snow in tipp sweet

Where abouts?

lesserspottedchloe

I can't tell you how happy it will make me if the mid-west gets snow again!! Oh please let this come true I want another day of snowmen, hot chocolate and frolicking on the side of the nearest hill with my bodyboard!!!:)

Harps

Even if it does snow tonight its not going to lie for long so dont get your hopes up too much.

Not a drop here all day, looking at raintoday theres nothing really coming either. Unless I'm missing something theres going to be nothing interesting happening tonight.

On the plus side, the latest gfs has upgraded our chances for the end of the week with proper cold air over the whole of Scotland. Its certainly going to be an interesting battle with a very fine line between a frontal snow event and more miserable rain

Gregsor

Looks like a brief few showers on the way but they won't last,temps still holding at 6-8,still it will make me smile if i see some though ,the last blast.

TheInquisitor

Upgrades is the name of the game folks. Lets see if the next few runs continue the build up

Harps

Some nice upgrades again this morning, even the ECM which has been favouring the Atlantic to quickly win is now showing a bigger push from the cold air.

GFS is looking very promising :cool:

BLIZZARD7

Nice upgrade on the 00z GFS, looks like the ECM/UKMO are moving away from Atlantic domination, towards the GFS's blocked pattern.

The GFS has -5C 850 temps into the North at around +108hrs and along most of the east coast by +141hrs -



Now the real interest for me is that if we can get a little shortwave to zip across france, tightening the isobars, we could easily get the -10C line all the way to the west of Ireland! it gets to around Liverpool/Manchester area on this run, we are so close now! BUT until the ECM is showing this to be as good as the GFS then we can't even be sure of this yet. The FAX chart last night was heavily modified towards the GFS and looked quite different to the UKMO/ECM so the met office in the UK seem to think the GFS might have this one right.

Anyway the models are changing so much everything after +96 hrs is FI ATM, the ECM has been the one going for a decent easterly, now the GFS, I wonder if we can tap into that lovely Siberian air? Hopefully...


I know it's so far out it's barely worth posting but the last few GFS runs have looked like this at +192hrs -



Shift the high from over us to Iceland and we would have a severe easterly as there is -15C 850's to the east of the UK.





Dan :cool:

ciaran67

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

we could easily get the -10C line all the way to the west of Ireland!

After the hell that was December i find it amazing you'd want that again!

I have been in the garden doing an ancient weather dance to the gods and im afraid there is no snow coming but rain and mild

BLIZZARD7

ciaran67 wrote: »

After the hell that was December i find it amazing you'd want that again!

I have been in the garden doing an ancient weather dance to the gods and im afraid there is no snow coming but rain and mild

Hell? I think you mean heaven? December was the best month for weather I've ever experienced!

No, No, No, I'm sorry but the snow/cold Gods have told me that the -15C 850 temps will be returning to the east of Ireland... you must have being talking to the summer god?




Dan :cool:

Big Daddy Cool

great more charts, just cant beat them, i reckon we'll have no ''significant snowfall'' or '' potential temps of -15'', i reckon we'll get the odd cold day with beautiful mild and probably wet atlantic weather soon taking over followed by a nice and getting warmer spring like march leading us into the summer .

Rebelbrowser

Beeb monthly outlook just out............

Published at 10:00, 14 February

(Next update at 10:00, 21 February)

Written by Philip Avery

Summary
Taste of winter still to come for some
A pleasant February can go a long way to give the impression that the winter has been alright. With the early onset of widespread snow in November, the case for winter of 2010 was never going to be an easy one to make.

What will not help is that January and the first part of February have been so unseasonably gloomy, especially across parts of the south of England. Some areas have had 30-40% less than the average sunshine for this time of year.

The next few days will do little to alleviate matters. Is it any help if I remind you that in February 2008 a number of spots across the south of Britain set February records for sunshine? No, I thought not.

Monday 14 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011

A highly changeable week
Low pressure over Northern Ireland at the start of the week sets the pattern, joined on Tuesday by another just a little further to the west. The initial feature throws rain, snow and showers across Northern Ireland and much of Scotland, whilst Tuesday's low will encourage a band of rain, sleet and snow to move northwards across all parts of the British Isles.

Wednesday will be quieter day with some sunny spells and a few showers; some of these wintry in the north. Thursday will be a similar day with a scattering of showers across southern England, southeast Wales, and the coasts of Scotland.

The battle between cold air in the east and milder, moister air to the west is on Friday, as a front brings wet and windy weather to all western parts.

Temperatures this week will be at or just below average throughout the British Isles.

Monday 21 February 2011 to Sunday 27 February 2011

Cold and mild weather battle for UK dominance
High pressure will dominate across Scandinavia at first, slowing the eastward progress of Atlantic fronts across the British Isles.

The period will start cold across the northeast of Britain, but mild and wet weather will sit across the south and west.

Weather fronts will try to move northeastwards, but until they arrive there is an increasing risk of snow falling on the higher ground of the Scottish mountains. During the following weekend, the mild but rather wet weather will win out with many areas turning milder.

Monday 28 February 2011 to Sunday 13 March 2011

Touch of spring as high pressure tries to dominate
High pressure from the Azores is expected to extend towards the south of the British Isles, whilst northern parts will stay mild, wet and windy. Temperatures will often be above the average. After a wet start in the north, rainfall will decrease as the ridge of high pressure becomes more established. It will however remain breezy in the northwest and there will be an increasing risk of night frosts.

Rebelbrowser

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Now the real interest for me is that if we can get a little shortwave to zip across france, tightening the isobars, we could easily get the -10C line all the way to the west of Ireland! it gets to around Liverpool/Manchester area on this run, we are so close now! :

Dan, I've tried following this on Netweather too but I can't. Can you explain, what is a "shortwave"?