Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

ninebeanrows

The key tomorrow: Precip Intensity.

The more itense the precip the better.

NAE has come onboard for a slot of snow tomorrow, first time it has.

Away from southern and eastern coasts.

thomasj

Weathercheck wrote: »

huh? It is clear?

It's very very light rain, it isn't even drizzle, more like driz

It's not reaching the ground but I can feel it!

John.Icy

Still tentitive on this event, IMBY, but these type events, I wouldn't be suprised, to be suprised tomorrow, and for some people higher up and a good way inland, could be a good day

Villain

-4.6c at the moment colder than I expected

cherryghost

BBCs just given an awful forecast for Ireland tomorrow. Hardly any rain/snow fall as it just trails off into the southeast and nowhere else

fizzycyst

cherryghost wrote: »

BBCs just given an awful forecast for Ireland tomorrow. Hardly any rain/snow fall as it just trails off into the southeast and nowhere else

good for the SE though yeah?

force eleven

cherryghost wrote: »

BBCs just given an awful forecast for Ireland tomorrow. Hardly any rain/snow fall as it just trails off into the southeast and nowhere else

Although they arent strictly forecasting for us, the fronts and asociated weather is usually pretty well represented on their graphics. I haven't seen a forecast from them in the last 24 hours which brought the precipitation north of a line from, say,Kilkenny to Limerick. Ultimately, its a case of radar and reports watching. Just feeling pessimistic on this one for much snow, thats all.

The Little Fella

fizzycyst wrote: »

good for the SE though yeah?

The BBC couldn't give two ****s about Ireland though.

NIALL D

lookin at raintoday , that mass should be hittin the south coast around midnight or that ???

thetonynator

temps seem to be lower than everyone expected, which should be good for snow longer before turning to rain . . . .wel not everyone, but lower than the general consensus.

thetonynator

18z GFS is a bit of a downgrade, more rain and less snow risk than previous runs.

Figuramatyi

thetonynator wrote: »

18z GFS is a bit of a downgrade, more rain and less snow risk than previous runs.

I respectfully disagree. It is much better, more snow, could even reach Connacht:


Before that:
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-18.png?18
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-24.png?18

JanuarySnowstor

As I said earlier it will snow in Cork around midnight and remain as snow for a good few hours. I then expect it to be gone by morning with rain and dry intervals all day. Further heavy ppn will move in around 4pm and this will turn to snow before it clears leaving a dusting for highground

fr wishy washy

The grass is white with frost in Blessington.

nacho libre

Figuramatyi wrote: »

I respectfully disagree. It is much better, more snow, could even reach Connacht:


Before that:
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-18.png?18
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-24.png?18

don't be surprised to see it further south on the next run. with this mind i'm going with ukmo predictive sequence on this one. Meanwhile it looks good for the north west on Saturday.

thetonynator

Figuramatyi wrote: »

I respectfully disagree. It is much better, more snow, could even reach Connacht:


Before that:
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-18.png?18
http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-24.png?18

I meant tonights event, thats tomorrow nights . .which i hadn't even noticed!!!

Elmer Blooker

After seeing this evening's charts I don't really care whether we get hail, rain or snow. The Atlantic is getting ready to kick the door in - even Moscow will get above freezing next week by the look of those depressing charts! :mad:

Figuramatyi

thetonynator wrote: »

I meant tonights event, thats tomorrow nights . .which i hadn't even noticed!!!

Ah ok my bad!

Nacho: at this point all we can do is watch the radar and the local temps
Galway will be at the edge of things... either cold with no ppt, or lots of ppt that turn to rain.
OR we strike very lucky, and will be just at the right place
I don't expect to see any snow before 6-7 pm tomorrow.

Joe10000

Why do you all seem to want snow so much ??

Figuramatyi

Joe10000 wrote: »

Why do you all seem to want snow so much ??

Because it's beautiful and it's also extraordinary. It will melt before Monday anyway, so wouldn't hurt anyone this time.

thetonynator

Joe10000 wrote: »

Why do you all seem to want snow so much ??

It's so . . .different? Nice? Cold? White? Clean? Fun? Interesting? Good for skiing? Sledding? Snowmen?

Take your pick!!!

GavinH

Temperature still on the rise, up to -0.3 now.

catbear

It's really handy when you get in from shopping and you want to get chill your beer asap. you just open the back door, stick a few bottles up to their neck in the snow and ten minutes later icy chilled beer. Mmmmmmmmm.

JanuarySnowstor

GavinH wrote: »

Temperature still on the rise, up to -0.3 now.

That's mainly caused by increasing wind which a good force 5 at this stage. Not really a sign of it getting milder, even in the coldest of spells a strong wind will raise temp. Once we remain below 3 all is good. Dewpoints look favourable right through really

Villain

-5.4c getting chilly

GavinH

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

That's mainly caused by increasing wind which a good force 5 at this stage. Not really a sign of it getting milder, even in the coldest of spells a strong wind will raise temp. Once we remain below 3 all is good. Dewpoints look favourable right through really

Hope your right, i have faith.

NIALL D

we should be hearing reports from around the coast of cork soon ?
looks to be jus starting to hit there now...........

rain , sleet , snow , what have ye ??????????

Figuramatyi

All right, gotta sleep, good luck for all the southerners for tonight... tomorrow it's our turn

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

After seeing this evening's charts I don't really care whether we get hail, rain or snow. The Atlantic is getting ready to kick the door in - even Moscow will get above freezing next week by the look of those depressing charts! :mad:

How did you manage before 2008!? when we usually had to rely on two day arctic incursions before the atlantic swept through on day three.
Wouldn't it be fantastic if we saw a classic omega block ala 62/63 develop in late Janaury? Perhaps we could have another month of cold, with repeated atlantic approaches being beaten back. well, after the events of December the bar has been raised:pac:

Brianmeath

the car is reading -7
rubbed my eyes and still -7
Kilmessan Meath