Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

jo06555

So any major changes to forecasts??????????? I see that radar image looks to be hitting south very soon , then tommorrow from what i gather here atlantic air dominating yes meaning higher temps.......

DOCARCH

Joe10000 wrote: »

Why do you all seem to want snow so much ??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGEqWzw8A9g

You see the penguins at the back? That's you...that is. See the little penguin at the front...that's us!

thetonynator

NIALL D wrote: »

we should be hearing reports from around the coast of cork soon ?
looks to be jus starting to hit there now...........

rain , sleet , snow , what have ye ??????????

Rain for cork i'd say . . .or sleet maybe.

(city that is)

ch750536

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Just hit the coast

Elmer Blooker

nacho libre wrote: »

How did you manage before 2008!? when we usually had to rely on two day arctic incursions before the atlantic swept through on day three.
Wouldn't it be fantastic if we saw a classic omega block ala 62/63 develop in late Janaury? Perhaps we could have another month of cold, with repeated atlantic approaches being beaten back. well, after the events of December the bar has been raised:pac:

Right! I've just picked up all my toys off the floor!
Yeah I well remember all those topplers, pre 08. At least FI is consistent for the last few days with HP building over Greenland.

aurora 527

ch750536 wrote: »

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Just hit the coast

Waterford city current temp 0c
Dew point -2.3c

Speak Now

M.T has posted his thoughts on the front in the forecast thread.

largepants

I'm quite near the coast (4/5 miles) and nothing falling yet. Although the wind has picked up a small pick in the last hour or so.

Min

Joe10000 wrote: »

Why do you all seem to want snow so much ??

It looks good when it is melting.

Pangea

So has anyone any forecast on saturdays potential snow for the North West, we should see a covering anyways?

JanuarySnowstor

I'll say it again somewhere like Thurles will get an absolute pasting from this, several inches of snow i'd say.
PPN slowing up as it nears Cork more like 1am now before it hits proper.
Remember Cork fans we 2 bites of the cherry (1) midnight - 4am & (2) after 4pm tomorrow. Best of luck rebel brotherhood & remember the sound of drip drip is always favourite in these events!

M.T. Cranium

Have updated forecast, still thinking it will be very mixed near the south and southeast coasts, mainly snow inland, with a band of heavier snow likely to develop across parts of inland Munster into Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Kildare, west Dublin and inland Meath. In the southeast especially on the east side of the Wicklow mountains, snow may be heavy above 300m but mixing will reduce amounts progressively closer to sea level. You can read the details over in the forecast section.

The precip band is going to edge north all night rather slowly, and may stall for a while before pivoting around to spread faster north in eastern counties by mid-day.

The forecast remains very tricky and the key word is potential, but the cold air has established itself north of the coastal strip, and it is really the arctic front rather than the main band of moisture with the low that will determine snowfall locations. The low itself is lagging well behind this front and will track quite a distance southeast of even Wexford tomorrow evening. So the snow potential all hinges on the performance of this arctic front as it is pushed back north, and my current thinking is that this looks good for snow potential in the inland southeast where cold air can remain trapped due to the topography. If I had to guess who (of our regular posters) will be most excited by snowfall in their vicinity tomorrow, I would say the people in Kilkenny and Laois.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

H

If I had to guess who (of our regular posters) will be most excited by snowfall in their vicinity tomorrow, I would say the people in Kilkenny and Laois.

Indeed Min could be very happy tomorrow:p - especially if this front were to stall and dump snow for 24 hours on the Castlecomer plateau:p

rilz

According to the BBC the frontal snow is going to last couple of hours then milder weather comes in. Predicted 10c for SW england and 8c for Southern England.

Quick thaw then!

Big Daddy Cool

M.T on your update you say navan could get 10-12cm how certain are you, that could happen.

ch750536

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If I had to guess who (of our regular posters) will be most excited by snowfall in their vicinity tomorrow, I would say that ch750536 is perfectly placed on his hill.

Fixed that for you, got it wrong again.

JanuarySnowstor

11pm temps are in and Cork is still at 0, indeed Roches point which is practically in the sea is only +1. Basically in an hour temp has remained constant. V good for snow chances

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have updated forecast, still thinking it will be very mixed near the south and southeast coasts, mainly snow inland, with a band of heavier snow likely to develop across parts of inland Munster into Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Kildare, west Dublin and inland Meath. In the southeast especially on the east side of the Wicklow mountains, snow may be heavy above 300m but mixing will reduce amounts progressively closer to sea level. You can read the details over in the forecast section.

The precip band is going to edge north all night rather slowly, and may stall for a while before pivoting around to spread faster north in eastern counties by mid-day.

The forecast remains very tricky and the key word is potential, but the cold air has established itself north of the coastal strip, and it is really the arctic front rather than the main band of moisture with the low that will determine snowfall locations. The low itself is lagging well behind this front and will track quite a distance southeast of even Wexford tomorrow evening. So the snow potential all hinges on the performance of this arctic front as it is pushed back north, and my current thinking is that this looks good for snow potential in the inland southeast where cold air can remain trapped due to the topography. If I had to guess who (of our regular posters) will be most excited by snowfall in their vicinity tomorrow, I would say the people in Kilkenny and Laois.

I'd say Carlow may not be a bad spot either MT ;-)

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

So has anyone any forecast on saturdays potential snow for the North West, we should see a covering anyways?

Going by BBC theres two weak fronts going to hit us, one Friday night and the second on Saturday afternoon, both seem to be weak but the second BBC have as white across the whole county. Still not getting my hopes up too much but at least its something to look at in whats been a very dull 2 weeks for the north west

Big Daddy Cool

-7.5 here in north meath, was it forecast to go that low

ninebeanrows

-6c at Dublin Airport @ 11pm

Colder than forecast at this point. Probably aided by reisdual cold still in the ground from the December freeze.

JanuarySnowstor

Plenty intensity in this front.
I'm gonna call it as snow for most
Expect the Irish Met to give an 'up the ante' forecast at 11:55 on radio 1.
Angle of attack is almost perfect

rilz

I watched the graphics on bbc weather and they showed the snow in wales and Midlands quickly turning to rain. They showed the heavier snow on the Eastern side of the heavy precip movin up from the South into Eastern Scotland.

thetonynator

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

M.T has posted his thoughts on the front in the forecast thread.

And what beautiful thoughts they are . . .

HE SAID KILKENNY FOR SNOW!!!!




Sorry about that, i have difficulty controlling my excitement at times . .:pac:

JanuarySnowstor

Weathercheck wrote: »

-6c at Dublin Airport @ 11pm

Colder than forecast at this point. Probably aided by reisdual cold still in the ground from the December freeze.

We are on the cusp of something major here.
Our Cities could be marginal but a lot of the country could get a lot of snow from this. Deep green's on the radar will help hugely with evaprative cooling.

mickger844posts

Its cloudy now in Waterford City and the temp has held around the zero mark with DP a healthy -2.2c. Raintoday are showing sleet out at sea so a good chance of this starting as snow in Waterford. The next few hours will be interesting to say the least.

Temps and live streaming webcam @ www.waterfordcityweather.com

mothel

BBC rarely gets it wrong!:(

rilz

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We are on the cusp of something major here.
Our Cities could be marginal but a lot of the country could get a lot of snow from this. Deep green's on the radar will help hugely with evaprative cooling.

And it is supposed to get milder as the front pushes through? A slushy mess

JanuarySnowstor

mickger844posts wrote: »

Its cloudy now in Waterford City and the temp has held around the zero mark with DP a healthy -2.2c. Raintoday are showing sleet out at sea so a good chance of this starting as snow in Waterford. The next few hours will be interesting to say the least.

Temps and live streaming webcam @ www.waterfordcityweather.com

Dewpoint sounds perfect, it surely has to snow.
The main critical point is that the wind remains North of East, if it even hints at Southeast it's game over

compsys

Weathercheck wrote: »

-6c at Dublin Airport @ 11pm

Colder than forecast at this point. Probably aided by reisdual cold still in the ground from the December freeze.

I'm sure the residual cold from the December freeze is long long gone at this stage and not what's aiding the cold temp. Sure the station recorded five consecutive days of well above-average temps after Stephen's day so surely any cold and snow would have disappeared.

There's some type of frost hollow or something at the Dublin Airport station so I'd say that's why the temp is already down to -6. I mean it's still 'only' -2 at the nearby Casement station and that's further inland.